chanakya-on-racing

BANGALORE - 31/1/12

2012-01-31T12:52:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE
1)11-1-9
2)7E-2-9
3)(5)-2-8
4)10-8-4
5)2E-8-6
6)(1-7-2)
7)(4-6)-2
8)2-9-11

MUMBAI 28/1/12

2012-01-28T12:35:00.002+05:30

TODAY SEEMS TO BE FLUKE DAY
MY CHOICE
1)9-2P-1
2)4
3)(8-4P-15)
4)9-7-8
5(9)
6(4-6)-9
7)(9)-6-5
8)2-7-10
9)(7-3-4)
10)4E-2-1
11)12-6P-1

BANGALORE DERBY DAY- 27/1/12

2012-01-27T12:05:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE
1)2-1-11
2)2
3)(6P-1-8)
4)(5-9)-6P
5)(2)-5-9
6)(9-4-7)
7)(9-8)-5
8)10-6-9
9)(6-2)-4

MUMBAI 22/1 12

2012-01-22T12:31:00.003+05:30

MY CHOICE
1)(6-4)-2
2)1-2
3)(6-1)-5
4)3-11P-13
5)(6-7-5)
6)2-1
7)(3)-8-1
8)1-2-10
9)3E-2-9
10)(10)-2P-7

BANGALORE 21/1/12

2012-01-21T12:50:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)10-9P-2
2)(4)-1
3)(11-1-7)
4)8-9-10
5)(7-5P-2)
6)(1-3P)-5
7)1-2-6
8)4-1-8

BANGALORE 20/1/12

2012-01-20T12:47:00.003+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)1-8-7
2)4E-6-3
3)1-5-7
4)(1)-8-6
5)4-8E-3
6)(12E-5-7)
7)(5-8P-7)
8)3-7-12

MUMBAI 19/1/12

2012-01-19T12:51:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)2-3-5
2)4-1-9
3)4-1
4)8-2P-9
5)(13-1)-9
6)(4)-6-10
7)(9-1-3)
8)(4E-6-2)
9)3-2-1-14
10)1

MUMBAI 15/1/12

2012-01-15T13:03:00.001+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)XXXXXXXX
2)XXXXXXXX FLUKE WILL WIN
3)8-4-11
4)4-2-7
5)5-8P-7
6)(8-6P)-2
7)2
8)9-5-4
9)11-5P-4
10)(7-5-12)

Mumbai -12/1/12

2012-01-12T12:51:00.003+05:30

my choice

1)4-2-5
2)6-1-9
3)4-5-8
4)(5-4p)-8
5)4-1-2
6)1
7)7E-1-4
RACES NUMBER 4,5,6,7 HAVE BEEN ASSESSED WRT PNR VALUE ALSO

Penetrometer reading- some opinions,observations

2012-01-08T20:48:00.000+05:30

Penetrometer Reading(PNR) is a parameter which ,many times, helps a punter to select a runner who has been missed by many professional tipsters-maybe due to lack of time or understanding of this parameter. Examples abound, but I’ll give only few to highlight this observation, which will help in catching a well priced winner.
PNR value is normally taken 2 hrs. before the first race and any subsequent rain, wind speed, weather change will not be reflected in the results misleading the handicappers, many times.

Lovely Kiss won race no 5 on opening day of Bangalore summer 2011 when PNR was 5.1 and going was soft to heavy, clocked better timing than a class I horse, next day , when PNR was 4.6.She was trained by an average trainer and did not have any hype attached to its performance. She was entered as a final entry and won at an odds of 7/2, Fillies stakes -race no 81, easily beating the favorite. She went downhill after that because of physical ailments , which were not disclosed by the connections to racing punters.

Alma Mater started her racing career from Pune season . She ran her first race in soft going (PNR 2.0) on monsoon track which is 1.5 to 2.5 second slower than the main track, depending on the distance. The track was officially declared soft and though winning a race on a soft track in first outing is nothing great but she clocked better timing than a class I horse in her first run is certainly commendable! After winning her second race again on monsoon track (PNR 1.9) in a time which was 0.4second slower than ’Track record’ should be taken note. Running first race of career in bad going and bettering the time of a class I runner is a clear cut clue of the superiority of a runner. She ran as an outsider(15/1) in Indian 1000Guineas and duly won the race defeating many well performed runners. Except one out of 30+ tipsters none gave her a chance!

Hyderabad race no 150 run on 2January 12. As usual most of the experts were hooked on Imran/Chauhan combination to find a winner- while the winner was Odalis. Look at the PNR values of the previous runs of these runners:
Royal Craft-won race 68- 1100m-1m8.2s-PNR 3.4
Odalis-won race 1- 1000m- 1m 0.3s – PNR 3
………race79(III-12length)-1m11.7s-PNR2.9
Rustic Gal-race44(III)-1000m-1m0.7s-PNR 2.4
………..won 85 – 1100m-1m7.8s…..-PNR3.0
Odalis has performed better than her nearest rivals ,if we consider 1000m and 1100m runs and has a good chance to win – which she did.

Penetrometer reading, if analysed carefully and correlated to other parameters does help, most of the time ,to win a race. A clear understanding and relationship with other factors will regularly provide winners at better price.

PNR reading/value is not a system/methodology/parameter to provide a ready made winner but is a indicator ,when applied correctly will strengthen and ensure the success of any sound system for finding a winner. A well known racing axiom says that no two races can be run identically and ,therefore, no horse will give identical runs under similar conditions but only within approximations, and it does .

PNR can provide a winner, but it does if applied correctly. Some examples were given in my earlier article posted in 2009. Some more are given below.

Bangalore Oaks-7/1/12. Southern Bay was on money fav but punters were undecided and all other runners were available at6/4 to 4/1. Open the BOL race book and you will find PNR values in the tabulated format. Scrutinize the final time(raw time) and its associated PNR. Best pair (raw time- PNR) is produced by At The Helm and Radical Attraction for 1800m(1m52.2s- 3.3). ATHelm broke down during the race and Radical Attraction placed III payingRS.23/- at Bangalore tote.
Another example – Mysore is called graveyard of favs. On 28/12/11,one treble, minijackpot and jackpot were carried over –only one favorite out of 8 races won. The highest tote dividend of Rs.806/- was paid on Unique Star, race no 5 of the card. Download the past performance chart of the race from their site or look into the BOL book of that day. Winner- Unique Star did 1200m in 1m12.3s(PNR(2.9),1m 14.18s(3.5), second placed Miss Ruby did in 1m13.35(3.2),third placed Daring Dynamite did in 1m12.8(3.2) and the loser the favorite- Solmaz best performance was 1m13.5(2.7). Decide using these raw figures ,which runner a punter must choose to make a bet? There are no complex calculations to perform – only patience, clear and unbiased logic is required to win using any method, system or parameter. It will take several hours to compare patiently this card which could make a punter rich by few lakh rupees!

BANGALORE 31/12/11

2011-12-31T12:49:00.001+05:30

MY CHOICE - MAY BE LAST...
2-8EW
4)3-P
5)5-3 W
THERE ARE MANY MORE -BUT THEN HAPPY NEW YEAR

MUMBAI 29/12/11

2011-12-29T13:53:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)7-8-3
2)2-1-6
3)(2-6)-4
4)(4)-1-2
5)1-7P-8
6)1-3-5
7)5-1-3

MUMBAI 25/12/11

2011-12-25T11:29:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)(5-2-8)
2)3-4
3)4-1-5
4)4-5
5)(1-3-5P)
6)3-6-10
7)1-8-5
8)8E-2-4

MUMSAI 15/12/11

2011-12-15T11:44:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)6-2-5
2)4-3
3)3-6-4
4)(7-1)-9
5)4-5P-2
6)(3-5-2)
7)3-1-2
8)2-6P-5
9)2-9-12
10)(5-1-3)

MUMBAI 11/12/11

2011-12-11T12:24:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)8-5P-6
2)5-6
3)(3-10)-6
4)6-9P-10
5)3-2-6
6)(7-8)-1
7)(13-15-7)
8)(5)-6P-2

BANGALORE 10/12/11

2011-12-10T11:45:00.001+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)1-3-2
2)6-5-1
3)(6) -1-2
4)6-7-8
5)(5-6-4) FAVORITE WILL LOSE
6)4-3-2
7)2-3P-5
8)(10-4-12)
9(2)-8-1

horseracing parameters

2011-12-08T21:40:00.001+05:30

Horse racing parameters- some controversies-some opinions

Horseracing is a complex game, where homo sapiens and thoroughbreds try to prove and disprove each other wrong!

A thoroughbred is an animal and though a homo sapiens is also one, with a difference that only homo sapiens can program, control, manipulate the behavior, performance and the final result of a race in which a thoroughbred participates. But while a thoroughbred is a genuine specimen of his breed, a homo sapiens may not be - normally speaking – because he has not been subjected to selective breeding and some inbreeding communities have dwindling population growth .

Over a period of time many theories, based on experience and observations have been put forward by racing experts about breeding, pedigree, performance, weight, quantification of win/loss by certain distance ,current form, etc.-different and innumerable parameters to find a winner.
I'll write a series of short articles, supported by examples from Indian racing, to explain some of these points - which many punters fail to understand or take into account for their analysis. These articles will be posted at regular intervals under the above heading.

MUMBAI 1/12/11

2011-12-01T12:00:00.002+05:30

A DAY OF UPSETS

1)4
2)6-3-2
3)(5-6-1)
4)2-4
5)(4-1)
6)4-3P-6
7)6-1-3
8)6-3-7
9)(4-3-2)

MUMBAI 27/11/11

2011-11-27T12:17:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)4-8-6
2)(4-7-6)
3)9-8-1
4)(6-3-1)
5)3-11P-16
6)(3-7-8)
7)8-2-4
8)11-8-2
9)(5-4)-6

Mumbai- 24/11/11

2011-11-24T12:39:00.002+05:30

my choice

1)2-7P-5
2) 4
3)2-11-1
4)(5-3-6) FLUKE MAY WIN
5)4-5P-1
6)(2-5)
7)8-5-6

20/11/11 selections

2011-11-20T12:49:00.003+05:30

MUMBAI CHOICES
1)5-2
2)XXXXXXXXXXX
3)2
4)5
5)4-2-3
6)5-12-1
7)(12-3-9)

HYDERABAD

1)XXXXXXXX
2)XXXXX
3)(3-8-9)
4)(6-5)-7
5)(6)-3-8
6)(4)-5P-8
7)(3-7-4)
8)((2-1)-5

BANGALORE 19/11/11

2011-11-19T13:12:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE
1)5
2)4-6-7
3)8E-3-7
4)(10)-4-3
5)(9-6)-3
6)3-7-1
7)(1-8-7-5)

Mumbai 17/11/11

2011-11-17T13:04:00.002+05:30

my choice
1)(1-2)
2)(4-1-7)
3)(9-3)-5
4)6-4
5)(1-3)-5
6)6-5
7)(7-4)-3
8)(2-1-14)

MYSORE 23/10/11

2011-10-23T11:55:00.002+05:30

DERBY DAY SELECTIONS

1)XXXXXXXXXXX
2)XXXXXXXXXXX
3)4-7-9
4)1-2-10
5)(6-1-8)
6)5-7P-11
7)1-4P-6
8)7-5-4
9(4-8-3)
10) 5-1-10
11)(9-4)3

PUNE 22/10/11

2011-10-22T11:43:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1) (3-6-10)
2)1
3)(8E-6-2)
4)(5-3P)-6
5)(9)-4-1
6) 8-11-3-6-2
7)1-4
8)6-3P-2-1 FAV MAY LOSE
9)7-10P-12
10) 3-9P-10-12

PUNE 21/10/11

2011-10-21T11:37:00.003+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)(7E-4-10)
2)(2-3-1)FLUKE MAY WIN
3)1-3
4)2-1-5
5)3-6-14
6)4-3-1 UNCERTAIN RACE
7)(7)-3-4
8)5-4
9)(5-7-4)
10)(2-1)-5
11)(5)-1P-7
12)(10-4)-3 OPEN RACE

HYDERABAD 18/10/11

2011-10-18T11:43:00.003+05:30

MY CHOICE
1)(5-7)-3
2)2-7-1
3)2-7-1
4)(1-4)-5
5)(2)-6-1
6)(4-9P-1)
7)7-3-14
8)(3-5-2)FLUKE MAY WIN
9)6E-4-8

MYSORE 13/10/11

2011-10-13T12:54:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)XXXXXX
2) 2&3 MAY PLACE
3)XXXXXXX
4)(2-4)
5)9 SHOULD PLACE
6)(6-7-1)
7)2-10P-1
8)(4-6-2)FLUKE MAY WIN
9)2-11P-6

Pune 2/10/11

2011-10-02T12:51:00.002+05:30

my choice

1)2
2)3-7P-1
3)3-4-1
4)3-9-10-5
5)3-5-1
6)(1)-3-6
7)7E-1-11
8)8-5-7-6
9)2-4-9

HYDERABAD DERBY DAY 2/10/11

2011-10-02T11:51:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)3-4
2)6-2-4
3)(4-2P)-6
4)(7E-4-5)
5)10-6-2
6)(2-4-5)
7)(7-3P)-10
8)6-5-4

MYSORE 30/9/11

2011-09-30T13:00:00.004+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)3&7P
2XXXXX
3)XXXXXXXXXX
4 )1-P 01
5)3-4-11
6)2-10P-7
7)4-11P-12
8)(3-8)-6
9)(1-4-10)

MYSORE 30/9/11

2011-09-30T13:00:00.001+05:30

Mysore 29/9/11

2011-09-29T12:26:00.003+05:30

MY CHOICE

1) 1-7-8
2)(3-6P-9)
3)8-7-6
4)8-6-11
5)(5-6)-10
6)1-4-8
7)(8-4P)-3
8)(9-11-10-6)

Some Stray Thoughts and Some Opinions...

2011-09-28T23:50:00.000+05:30

Some Stray thoughts and Some Opinions…
Every year I usually used to write , normally during Bangalore summer season, my opinion and observations about 3 year old runners who may shine and do well in winter classics. Southern Empire, Set Alight, Jacqueline and many other thoroughbred(TB) were analysed from pedigree and performance angle. This year I’ve not been able to decipher any strong trait or quality in any 3 yo who could be bracketed with abovementioned worthies. Moreover, as a rule, almost all the favorites of semi-classics during winter and Bangalore summer meeting are being beaten by non-favorites or by second or third favorites.
Let us have a cursory look at some prominent 3 year olds.
Poona walla multimillion was won by Picasso beating favorite Amedeus and he lost badly to Super Duper who was certainly not a better performer than him. Lovely Kiss beat hot favorite Black Magic Woman in Bangalore Fillies Trial Stakes and Pronto Pronto sealed the fate of another favorite in Bangalore Colts Trial Stakes. Later on same Pronto Pronto won narrowly Bangalore summer Derby beating another favorite- Lovely Kiss.
Lovely Kiss lost another semi-classic to Southern Bay at Mysore recently and now four Monsoon Derbies at Kolkata, Hyderabad, Pune and Mysore will be run during October which do not bring out any outstanding runner – although by default Pronto Pronto selects himself as a better 3 year old than many other – because he has not run any race after winning Bangalore summer Derby.
This makes me think that winter classics will be much more competitive and interesting than they were during recent past…

PUNE 24/9/11

2011-09-24T13:03:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)5-1-2
2)5-4-1
3)3-5-1
4)(6)-1-2
5)(6)-3-1
6)4-3-5
7)9-10-15-1
8)6-2-1
9)(4-7-8)

PUNE 24/9/11

2011-09-24T13:02:00.000+05:30

Mysore 22/9/11

2011-09-22T13:55:00.003+05:30

my choice

1)xxxxxxxx
2)9-8-3
3)2-7-1
4) (8-5-11)
5)2-1-8
6)(12-1)-11
7)11-5-6
8)5-12-6

Mysore 22/9/11

2011-09-22T13:55:00.000+05:30

Menace of Drugs - II

2011-09-22T13:08:00.002+05:30

More than 1300 in India , more than 35,000 in U.S.A. and if we take into account the worldwide produce more than 1,00,000 thoroughbreds(TB) are born every year and considering the racing life of an average TB as 5 yrs. Every year more than 5,00,000 TB’s compete for a prize money of more than 10 billion dollars at more than 500 racetracks round the year across the world.. But it is not the last word.
Greed and a desire to earn easy money forces human beings to use foul and fair means resulting in the cruel death of Aldyar(to claim insurance money), Phar Lap( poisoned by US mafia) , Ruffian ,Eight Belle and many more TB’s in USA and elsewhere.
As per official estimates USA wagers more than 15 billon dollars, Japan about 11 billion dollars, Australia around 8 billion dollars and all over the world including Europe and Asia more than 80 billion dollars are wagered every year on horseracing. This also includes a conservative estimate of about 2 to 2.5 billion dollar gamble by Indian punters on 8 racetracks, across India where about 3500 runners try to win a purse of about Rs. 70 crore( about 15million dollars) from 3500 races…

Therefore, every year, in the horseracing arena , about 100 billion dollars( including the stakes) of easy money(?) is available for picking by some enterprising, clever, Intelligent ,shrewd gambler from a motley crowd of about one million hard core punters scattered around the world and about 2 million professionals- including syces and helpers… In India about Rs. 70 crores of stakes money and a wager of roughly 2 to 3 billion dollar is available to 10,000 hardcore gamblers and about 20,000 professionals including daily wage earners.
With this background information we can understand that the urge to make money by any means may /will overshadow and overwhelm all ethical moral and correct methods of winning a race and strengthens the opinion of a famous American critic that – horseracing actually has been reduced to a chemical warfare…

But why TB’s professionals – including breeders, use drugs on young juveniles?
Eclipse- the greatest race horse ever ran in a race, never raced till he was 5+ yrs. Old. Today a juvenile is made to race, compete and win when he/she is 2+ yrs. Old and he/she is only 90 to 95% developed- physically and mentally. Many breeders claim that their produce are precocious – without divulging that they have been pumped with nutrients including anabolic steroids as well as cortisteroids –to look bloated grownup, handsome, smart and ready to race.
A thoroughbred, does not attain full maturity till he is more than 3+ yrs. Old. In fact only as a 4 yr. old he can be considered as fully mature athlete. The remark of Jess Jackson, owner of Curlin – horse of the year(2007) echoes the mood , aspiration of an average owner/trainer…
“we ‘re looking for Arnold Schwarzenegger’s upper body and the we go for Don Knotts’ legs and knees…”...said Jess Jackson -owner of Curlin, the highest rated horse of his time. This horse Curlin was on steroids till he was 4 yr. old, has won Preakness stakes and was second in Belmont stakes . He was taken out of steroids at that age on the insistence of the owner and won too many grade one races till he was retired at the age of 7. He was one of the highest rated horse worldwide when he was sent as a sire at 7. This proves that continuous use of steroids does not necessarily produce a champion – a wrong notion propounded by the manufacturers of steroids to improve their sale.Though Big Brown after winning Preakness ended last in Belmont stakes when steroid(Winstrol) was withdrawn casts a doubt on this assertion. Appropriate training methods are more important than drugs to maintain a TB in winning condition.Many of my distractors may ask why am I using only USA examples- simply because , they are authentic, well documented, proved and well researched. Our Indian TB's drug related information is all hush-hush.

What are steroids?

Though crude form of steroids can be traced to Greek mythology , it was actually to rejuvenate the war weary soldiers of second world war and the malnourished POW’s and Jews of concentration camp which were primarily given these muscle building, energy giving growth hormones. In 50’s European and Russian athletes started using them . the authorities caught up and banished many of them-the most famous athlete who lost his Olympic gold medal was Ben Johnson.
While some corticosteroids can be used as joint injection for pain all anabolic steroids are banned universally because they artificially increase, concentration of red blood cells ,muscle mass and development, body mass, skeletal structure etc. and enhance temporarily the strength ,endurance speed and stamina thereby giving undue advantage to a thoroughbred over his competition. Many times when the cycle of steroid uptake is stopped the horse starts losing the races and many examples can be cited to prove this though most of the analysts and experts blame the ‘loss of form’ for this . While Curlin with proper training , grooming and other factors was ‘weaned’ out of steroids some of our experts are not able to bring out some of the good animals out of this – Ocean and Beyond, Star future came straight to my mind. They are/were good - why they are not now? Who is responsible for their downfall – trainer or owner or both- or the greed and some external influences…
No one can tell, except the one who pulls the strings…
(To be continued)

Menace of Drugs- part -I

2011-09-20T19:07:00.001+05:30

"Finding an American racehorse trained on the traditional hay, oats, and water probably would be impossible,” commented John Scheinman in Washington Post on 27/4/2003… Veterinarians give them drugs to keep them on the track when they shouldn’t be racing.
"There are trainers pumping horses full of illegal drugs every day,” says a former Churchill Downs public relations director in MAXIM (may 2002) “With so much money on the line, people will do anything to make their horses run faster.” The New York Sun opined that because “thoroughbreds are bred for flashy speed and to look good in the sales ring … the animal itself has become more fragile”
R Dutrow , the trainer of Big Brown who won Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes has admitted giving Winstrol which was withdrawn before he ran in Belmont and ended in the rear rather than in front.
Makes me reminiscence… few reminiscences dating back to 90’s of last century!
Long ago- 20 years is a pretty long time in racing parlance, an editorial in ‘The Indian Thoroughbred’ in Jan ’91 gave the names of more than a dozen trainers(some of them dead now) of western India who were ‘offenders’ of drug abuse – more than 100 minor and major violations of the use of prohibited drugs were detected at that time. Again in 1994 the story was repeated and while 10 cases were reported for ‘drug abuse’ in western India after 900 samples were tested ; none( not a single) was tested positive out of 600 samples sent for test from rest of the racing centers(Bangalore, Hyderabad, Chennai, Delhi, etc.). The only exception was that while all the samples of western India were sent to forensic labs ‘outside’ India ; all the samples from ‘rest of India’ were tested in India only! No more comments, because it happened in last century!…
Now let us look at the realities of situation. A thoroughbred is not a natural breed but is a creation of humans. He can run faster than 70km/hr for a short spell of time and is expected to repeat or better the performance every time he runs. To maintain his fitness he is given better feed, food supplements and drugs to alleviate injuries, tiredness and sport related ailments. Drugs can be painkillers, multivitamins and also steroids to hasten-up the recovery for next race. Food supplements, vitamins and some painkillers are permitted by racing authorities but ‘performance enhancing’ drugs called anabolic steroids and some cortisones are prohibited because they temporarily improve or enhance the performance of a runner.
Why some (or many?) of the trainers use, with the tacit approval of the owners, these drugs ?
As said earlier a thoroughbred(TB) is not a natural breed but is a creation of homo sapiens and therefore will have some shortcomings because the Darwin’s law of ‘ survival of the fittest’ is not fully applicable to him.

(to be continued)

hyderabad 18/9/11

2011-09-18T12:06:00.001+05:30

My Choice

1)3-1
2) (2-6)
3) 5-2-3

PUNE 17/9/11

2011-09-17T12:46:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)(3-1P)-4
2)4-3
3)(5-1)-6
4)8-3P-2
5)(1-3-6)FLUKE MAY WIN
6)7-9-5
7)2-9-8-4 FLUKE RACE
8) 4-2-1

Pune 16september 2011

2011-09-16T13:24:00.003+05:30

my choice

1)xxxx
2)5P
3)3
4)(2-6-7)
5)6-2P
6)6-1-8
7)4E-7-5
8)2E-9-5
9)(6-13-10)

Mysore 15/9/11

2011-09-15T12:21:00.002+05:30

My Choice
1)1P
2)4Eachway
3)1P
4)11
5)3
6)5-3
7)1-2-6
8)(2-1)-5P
9)3-10-7
10)(10-2)-3
11)(7-12-5-11)

PUNE JACKPOT & SJP SELECTION 11/9/11

2011-09-11T12:53:00.002+05:30

SUPER JACKPOT
2,1,9,5/6 5 /8 5 2 3/4 8 3 5/11 9 2 3/5 11

PUNE 11/9/11

2011-09-11T12:30:00.003+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)6-1-7
2)7-6-3
3)XXXXXXX
4)(3-1)-9P
5)2-1-9P-5
6)7-5-4
7)8-5-2P-3
8)4-3-8
9)11-9-2
10)11-5-8

Pune 10/9/11

2011-09-10T12:29:00.002+05:30

My Choice

1)(6-2-10)
2)2
3)3-11P-8
4)1-4-6
5)6-1-3
6)2-4
7)1-5-6-4
8)1E-2-3-5
9)xxxxx
10xxxxxxx

Hyderabad 5 September 2011

2011-09-05T13:24:00.001+05:30

my choice

1)5-9-3
2)2-9-7
3)4-1-3
4)3-1
5)(3-1)-9
6)7-10)-3
7)5-2-1

PUNE 4/9/11

2011-09-04T12:49:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE
THERE WILL BE UPSETS
1)13-1-8
2)XXXXXXXXXXX
3)6-1-2
4)9-1-4
5)4-1
6)(1-2)-3
7)(5-2P-1)
8)11-3-4-5
9)9E-2-5
10 (4-2)-6

MYSORE 1/9/11

2011-09-01T13:26:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE
1)XXXXXXXXXXX
2)XXXXXX
3)XXXXXXXXXX
4)XXXXXX
5)(3-7)-8
6)1-4-6
7)(6)-5-8
8)(4-12)-8
9)(9-3-4)

PUNE 28/8/11

2011-08-28T12:45:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)1-5-8
2)3-1-4
3)(2-1-10)
4)(3)-7-8
5)4E-7-6
6)5
7)(6E-4-1-2)
8)3-5-6-1
9)9-4P-8

PUNE 7/8/11

2011-08-27T13:26:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1) (1-4-6)
2)4-1-7
3)4-2
4)(6)-3
5)(1-5-4)
6)(4-5)-1
7)(1)-3-5
8)3-2-5

PUNE AND HYDERABAD 21/8/11

2011-08-21T12:58:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

PUNE
1)5-8P-9
2)4-2
3)(3)-9-8
4)5-3-7-8
5)5-3-4-9
6)(2-1)-4
7)1-7P-10
8(3-11-9)

HYDERABAD

1)2-4
2)1-4-5
3)4-9-12
4)1-6P-10
5)4-1-8
6)1
7)(1-3)-7
8)8-6P-4

pune 20/8/11

2011-08-20T13:56:00.001+05:30

my choice

1)5-9p-1
2)3-4-2
3)(10)-4-1
4)(3)-6-2
5)(7-8)-9
6)9-3-1
7)8E-1-6

PUNE INDEPENDENCE DAY

2011-08-15T12:38:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)(9-1-3)
2)3-5 OPEN
3)4-5?
4)2-6
5)8???
(7-8)-1
7)12-1P-9
8)(9-11-7)
9)7E-5-8
10)1-11P-5

PUNE & HYDERABAD 14/8/11

2011-08-14T12:41:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

PUNE
1)XXXXX
2)XXXXX
3)1
4)7E-3-1
5)(3-5)-4
6)(8-5-4-6)
7)2-3
8)(1-6-9)
9)(8-11)-7
10)10-1-3

Becket-the small or THE GREAT

2011-08-13T13:41:00.002+05:30

Mansoor-Indian Derby winner of 1973 was running in class VB at Calcutta(Kolkata) in late 70's(77/78).Refer book called Fonn's race records.
Becket is another Mansoor of 21st. century. He can win a race if given steroids and run after they are flushed out. At this rating he will not win, unless allowed by others...
A thoroughbred(TB) is a creation of homo sapiens and will behave according to their whims and fancies...

you can not impose your choice - neither on creator nor on created...

KOLKATA-13/8/11

2011-08-13T13:08:00.002+05:30

MY SELECTIONS
1)3-6-7
2)4-5-8
3)1-9-7
4)(2-5)-3
5)(1)
6)4-2-1
7)(7-2)-3

Bangalore 12/8/11

2011-08-12T11:44:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)3-2-4
2)3-2-8
3)(1-4)-9
4)8-7-1
5)(11-9)_4
6)10-4-2
7)(2-6)-4
8)(3)-12P-6
9)2
10)1-3-11
11)10-2-1

BANGALORE 11/8/11

2011-08-11T12:09:00.002+05:30

DIFFICULT DAY
1)XXXXXXXXX
2)4-1-5
3)3-7-2
4)11E-1-6
5)(12-9-2)
6)4-5-3
7)(1-5)-9
8)(5-7-9)
9)3-1-12-5
10)3-5-10P
11)3-10-11

PUNE7/8/11

2011-08-07T12:39:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE
1)(5)-3-2
2)1-4
3)(6-2)-8
4)5-6-1
5)4-9-1
6)(4-17-19)FLUKE MAY WIN
7)7-2-6
8)(4-2)-11

PUNE 6/8/11

2011-08-06T13:57:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)4-9-5
2)2-5
3)(11-3-7)
4)1-7-8
5)6-8-2
6)(6-2-7)
7)5-12P-6
8)(6-1)-2

Bangalore 4/8/11

2011-08-04T14:13:00.000+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)(9-5)-3
2)(7)-5-8
3)(3-5P)-1
4)4-7-8
5)12-7-5
6)(1-10-2)
7)(11-9-2)
8)(11E-2)-4

BANGALORE 31/7/11

2011-07-31T12:45:00.001+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)(8-3)-1
2)(7-1-8)
3)2-7-8
4)2-3-7
5)(4-3-8)
6)(2)4(P)-8
7)(4)-6-8
8)(1-2-9)
9)11-3(p)-2

BANGALORE 30/7/11

2011-07-30T13:11:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE FOR MY SYSTEM

1) 7-3-4
2) (1-4P)-8
3)(9-3-5)
4)(5)-1-3
5)9-12-4
6)(6E-5)-4
7)(8-4)-1
8)3-1-6

PUNE 29/7/11

2011-07-29T13:26:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)1-3
2)1-3
3)3-4-1
4)(4)-6P-1
5)4-7-2
6)(3-12)-4
7)(12-4-6)

Hyderabad-28/7/11 and Pune 28/7/11

2011-07-28T12:13:00.002+05:30

my choice for Hyderabad
1)2-12-10
2)4-6-8
3)4-10-1(OPEN RACE-FLUKE MAY WIN)
4)7-4-6
5)6-5-2(FAV MAY WIN)
6)12-1-8
7)(1-5)-4(AFLUKE MUST WIN)
8)1-2(p)-5
9)12-6-5

PUNE CHOICES

1)ZARCHA-N.CAMP: 2-4
2)(2-4) ICON-O.PRINCESS
3)3-2 TORABORA-F.CHARGE-(FAV)
4)6-5 ROYAL HIGHNESS- G'LISSIMO (FLUKE)
5)(9-4-12) T.A.TOMMY-ADVENTURER-HICKORY
6)(6-2-8) ELIZABETH-S WARRIOR-M.KNIGHT
7)(2-5P)-7 MADDOX-S.O.GIBRALTOR-VOYAGER

BANGALORE 24/7/11

2011-07-24T12:55:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)1-6-7
2)4-6-1
3)(6)-7-4
4)(6-8-1)
5)10(E)-2) -9
6)7
7)4-1-6
8)(6-3(P))-5
9)1-3-4

Bangalore 23/7/11

2011-07-23T13:36:00.001+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)XXXXXXXXXX
2)58-7
3)2-9-6
4)9-2-6
5)(7-6-3)
6)(1-7)-8(P)
7)(1-9-60
8)10-11-4
9)(11)-9-10

PUNE 22/7/2011

2011-07-22T12:28:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)4-1-6
2)(3-1)-6
3) 12-8-1
4)1-14-3
5)9-7-1
6)(6-10)-4
7)(6-12)-14
8)6-12(P)-1
9)(9)-7
10)(1)-2-4

BANGALORE DERBY DAY

2011-07-17T12:22:00.002+05:30

MY SELECTIONS
TODAY WILL BE UPSETS DAY

1)(7)-3-4
2 (1) -4-8
3)10-7-9
4)5(e)- 8-4 OPEN RACE
5)(3-8-9)
6) (6-7)-3
7)(14)-2-13
8)4-6-9
9)(7-1-2)
10 (6-1)-9
RACES NO 4,7,9 ARE LIKELY TO BE UPSET RACES

BANGALORE 16/7/2011

2011-07-16T12:44:00.002+05:30

my selections

1)1-9-7
2)(4)-8-3
3)2-1-7
4)(1-4-12)
5)9-8-5
6)(1-7)-6
7)1-2-7
8)7(E)-9-4
9)3(e)-1-8

Bangalore summer Derby 2011

2011-07-10T13:23:00.004+05:30

I wanted to send my 'stray thoughts and some opinions' to a racing site- Indiarace.com. The site refused to publish it with automated remarks : The form cannot be submitted...The following illegal words were found

(1) mental

I am ,therefore, constrained to put up the same here for perusal and critical comments of readers.

some stray thoughts and some opinions...

A syce is employed by a trainer. A trainer is 'employed' by an owner. An owner is PERMITTED to race his thoroughbreds by a race club and a trainer is licensed by the club to use its FACILITY to run the TBs trained by him and/or owned by him or someone else. The race club to earn money through commission and other legitimate avenues ,normally, provides stabling facility, racing track , basic and special maintenance facilities to thoroughbreds trained/owned by them.
A syce is an employee of a trainer. All dues – old and new, to him must be paid/reimbursed by the trainer or trainer/owner combo. A race club neither has any authority nor sanction to enforce it, but can coerce them by using its laws and bye-laws to ensure that racing goes on smoothly without and hindrance. Most of the race clubs controlled by vested interests , try to avoid taking harsh decisions and allow minor issues to escalate and convert them to WWF. The current crisis is an example of this ostrich like mentality.
The impasse can be resolved with a bit of imaginative modifications of the terms of future races. The PF arrears runs into crores of rupees and many trainers and owners are not in a position to pay it in a lump-sum. Naturally. But they must be able to pay it in installments. A percentage, say, 10 to 15 percent of stake money earned by owner and trainer can be retained by the club and transferred to an account which should pay in installments, a part of the dues, to the syces. Even the entry fee to a race can be increased by the club from 1 percent or 2 percent to 1.2 or 2.2 percent and this additional money can be transferred to that account.
The calculation and the amount of dues ,their disbursement and control may be assigned to an independent component of the club. This will ensure the smooth running of races and may remove/reduce the external, crooked entities of racing from the scene to some extent…

But who will bell the cat?

A New approach to win races

2011-07-04T20:05:00.003+05:30

Everyone wants to win races and tries various methods - paper handicapping,paddock handicapping, 'flow of money' etc. Here I'll use paper handicapping only because other two systems can be used only at the racetime.

Predicting winner of selective races(1 or 2 races) and making money is comparativly easier and I've done it in past twice on IR.com (2006& 2007), on TurfParrot (2008) and on this blog(Nov-Dec 2009).

This excercise is an attempt(experiment) to make money from races by betting on ALL races of a day, over a period of time - one month or one season. Obviously, by betting on everyrace it is not possible to win everyday but may be possible over a period. To achieve this I'll use following rules-
1)only the first choice will be selected for betting,
2)day's best and place bet will be in bracket,e.g.,(5)-1-6 or 3-(4-p)-9
3)if 2 or 3 runners are in bracket, both or all will be bet
4)betting unit will be same for all bets-win,place,jodi etc.
5)tax on all bets will be @ 10%
6)odds available at Mumbai ring will be considered.
7)Bangalore(1Jul- 5Aug) and Pune season will be primary targets.

I hope to end the 2 seasons on a winning margin, howsoever, small it may be but do not advise the reader to follow me till the exercise delivers confirmatory positive results. This is basically a test of my handicapping system

BANGALORE 3/7/11

2011-07-03T13:15:00.001+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)2-3-5
2)6-3-5
3)(5-4)
4)5-11-12
5)(5-8-2)
6)(3-1) -4
7)(6-10)-7
8)11-6-10
9)(7-3-10)

BANGALORE 2/7/11

2011-07-02T12:16:00.001+05:30

MY CHOICE FOR THE DAY

1) 11-5-8
2)(3-1-2)
3)11-10-5
4)1-6-8
5)(7-3)-4
6)4-11-1
7)(9-3)-1
8)8-10-9

penetrometer reading and classics

2011-06-29T11:56:00.001+05:30

Penetrometer reading and Fillies and Colts classic –a correlation

Penetrometer reading(PNR) gives a clue about the type of ‘going’ on the day and affects the final time of a race used by ‘speed analysts’ and is a pointer to indicate a probable winner when many other parameters are unable to pinpoint a clear winner of a race. The correlation between the time clocked by a runner on a particular day and the PNR value, if correctly done, will provide an exceptionally valuable winner which normal parameters may not be able to provide. This hypothesis is substantially proved by the wins of Lovely Kiss (odds 7/2) and Pronto Pronto(odds 5/1) in Fillies classic and Colts classic recently.

Let us consider the win of Lovely Kiss. On 1st. Day of racing at Bangalore in race no 5 ,she clocked a final time of 1 m 26.1s for 1400m when penetrometer reading(PNR) was 5.1 ;while Black Magic Woman(BMW) in race no 31, clocked 1 m 12.9s when PNR was 3.8. Disregarding the weight carried, the margin of win by each runner , we also find that except Speed Six(race no 30 – 1400m in 1m 26s) no other runner (not even a class I –race no 37) was able to better the final time clocked by Lovely Kiss on the first day of the Bangalore season indicating her superiority over her age group . She won the fillies classic beating the hot favorite BMW and other fillies easily.

In the case of Colts classic , the situation is a bit complicated because Pronto Pronto (PP) has not run on Bangalore track except running a mock race (1400m in 1 m 29s) while his adversary Six Speed (52K) has run an actual race in 1 m 26 s with PNR at 3.8 and Amedeus has run this distance in 1m 29.3s(adjusting for the lost distance). On 5/6/11 , PP clocked 1m 29s for 1400m beating a class I horse (Unleashed -rating 106) while Siachen clocked 13.7 s for a 1200m race and a class II 1600m race was run in 1m 41.7s. A class III race was won in 1m 29.9s by Arrow In Auto Mode on the same day. The PNR was 4.2. Using the times clocked by Siachen( class I ) and class II runner we find that a runner of equal caliber should run 1400m in a final time of about 1m 29.7s . PP has run a mock race on the same day in 1m 29s. Slower pace of a mock race but bettering a class III final time indicated that PP had equal chance as SS if we interpolate these variables in the mock race time of PP.
It is well known that the pace of a mock race is always slower than the actual race because horses are not strained and PP clocking a better time than a class III runner and beating a class I runner was a clear pointer that he is a live contender for the Colts classic and winning at odds of 5/1 he proved it.
After analyzing both the classics I can say that in the next classic , i.e., Bangalore Derby – ‘girls have better chance to win than the boys’.

BANGALORE 26 JULY 2011

2011-06-26T13:24:00.002+05:30

MY CHOICE

1)9-4-1
2)1-5-4
3)(10-6-2)
4)8-5-9
5)(10-6-5)
6) (9)-2(p)-7
7)(7_3)
8)5-8-7
9)(1-8)-7

11/6/11

2011-06-11T12:41:00.002+05:30

selections
1)(1)-2-10
2) (6-7-1)
3)5-4-2
4)4(e/w)-8-1
5)(9-1-10)
6)12-3-2
7)(8-2)6
8)(5-11)-1

Bangalore 5/6/11

2011-06-05T13:02:00.002+05:30

my selections

1) 9-5-2
2)6-1-8
3)(8-2-7)
4)10-1-6
5)(7-9-2)
6)4-9-4
7)(3)-1-5
8)9-6-3
9)(1-3)-2

29/5/11

2011-05-29T13:03:00.002+05:30

my chice

1)1-7-9
2)1-4-7
3)5-4-9
4)1-7-12
5)(1-2-4)
6)1-3-6
7)(3-1-2)
8)12-4)-1
9)(8-11-12)

Bangalore 28/5/11

2011-05-28T12:19:00.003+05:30

my choice
1)3-1-8
2)7-3(P)-9
3)(7-2-3)
4)4-6-1
5)(7-5-4)
6)(8)-6-3
7)10(EW)-1-3
8)6e/w-4-8

Bangalore 22/5/11

2011-05-22T13:20:00.003+05:30

selections

1) 6-1-4
2)5-8-6
3)(3-8-2)
4)1-5-2
5)(2-6)-8
6)(12-9)-1
7)6-9-10
8)11-2-3

Mumbai 24/4/11

2011-04-24T14:08:00.002+05:30

my choice

1)1-5
2) (2)
3)7-3-5
4)(5)
5)(1-7)-5
6)(8-6-9)
7)(10-3-1)
8)(6-3-1)

Mumbai- 23/4/11

2011-04-23T12:51:00.002+05:30

my choice:

1) (2) - 3-6
2)3-7-2
3)(1-6)
4)(9-1-5)
5)2-7-5
6)(1-6)
7)(11-10)-1
8)(1-9)
horse number within bracket indicates close race among them.

MUMBAI 20-3-11

2011-03-20T13:09:00.003+05:30

HAPPY HOLI TO ALL THE READERS

ONE FOR THE DAY
2-5
FREQUENT BETTOR
1-3
2-5
6-8
8-5
COMPULSIVE GAMBLER
1) (3-8)
2)5
3)5-3-6
4)(1-4)
5)5-7-1
6)8
7)2-6-5
8)(5-6-13)
9)7-8-6
10)(1-5-6)

Kolkata Derby Day Selections

2011-01-09T11:38:00.002+05:30

1)6-8-3
2)(9)-10-7
3)(5-1)-3
4)7-5-2
5)(9-3)-6
5)(9-3)-4
6)10-9-4
7)7-2-5
8)(8-3)-1
9)(6-8-5)

Bangalore 01/01/11

2011-01-01T14:11:00.003+05:30

seems to be bad day for favorites?

1)8-3-7
2)(8-5)-4
3) 8-5-1
4)!-5-6
5)8-6-10
6)11-5-1
7)9-4-8

select few
1-8
2-8
5-8
7-9

one or two only

1-8
5-8 eachway

Bangalore 25/12/10

2010-12-25T12:08:00.002+05:30

MERRY CHRISMAS TO ALL.

1)1-4-2
2) 2
3)2-10-8 FLUKE MAY WIN
4)7-4-3
5)(5-2)-1
6)(3-11-2)
7)4-5-8
8)1-7-2

SELECT FEW

4-7
5-5 EW
7-4

1/2 FOR DAY

2-2
4-7

BANGALORE 24/12/10

2010-12-24T11:57:00.002+05:30

SELECTION- ALL RACES

1)6
2)(9-10-7)
3)(1-5)-3
4) 5-8-4
5)12-9-8
6)1-6-8
7)(2-3)-6

SELECTIVE PLAY

1) 6WIN
3)5PLACE
4)5WIN

ONE FOR THE DAY
1)6 WIN
4) 5 EACH WAY

selection for 11/12/10

2010-12-11T14:33:00.002+05:30

from 5th race ...

5)1-10-2
6)12-2-8
7)(11-7-2)
8)6
9)(9-3-5)

selective choice for the day

6-12
7-11
8-6

only 2/1 for the day

6-12
8-6

Hyderabad 8/11/10

2010-11-08T12:05:00.002+05:30

after going through the race card and some other considerations I feel today is 'bookies day'as most-more than 80%, favorites will fail.

chanakya

hyderabad- 07/11/10

2010-11-07T12:44:00.002+05:30

my selections are :

1)9-3-4......10 is unknown entity
2)3-6-9......though I would like 5 to win
3)(3-2-1)
4) (5-3) 5 should win if J & T are honest
5)4-7-5....4 is best, if on job
6)(3-4-8)
7)(7-9)-1
8)7-12-9
9)11-14-8

activating the blog

2010-11-05T14:23:00.005+05:30

WISHING A VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS DIWALI TO ALL

I was not able to post anything on my blog due to serious sickness of my close family member and though saying sorry to my well-wishers and readers is not mandatory, I must say so. 8 to 10 months inactivity demands that!

I'll try to be regular and help my 'followers'by sharing my views, opinions and knowledge for whatever it is worth and hope that some of you will gain something from this blog.

I'll start posting my selections,following the same method- principles and accounting methods, which I left halfway during last winter season, due to personal obligations to my family and hope that I'll do better this time.

welcome to all...

chanakya

Mysore 23/9/10

2010-09-23T13:27:00.002+05:30

today the favorites are going to fail. avoid them .In race no 2,5,8 favorite is not likely to win because very closely handicapped.

be careful to bet on favs...

Pune race stewards were/are biased

2010-08-09T22:27:00.003+05:30

Ciel Indienne has won the race on merit. Su chaliyo could not have beaten him inspite of having better form.It is reported by Mr. Vivek Jain that the Jockey has 'admitted'that he has tightened Su Chaliyo but it was NOT dangerous riding and while Sampson lost the whip , Su Chaliyo could cover only one Length over him in last 200m under hard riding with whip.

It is indeed laudable that stewards want fair racing but by 'selective' picks of few erring professionals and overlooking more blatant ,open infringements of some professionals they areconfirming their bias. The stewards of RWITC are a biased lot and are trying to kill racing in western India so that the the sport dies the natural death and these people can help the racecourse area grabbed by builders' lobby . Many of them are prominent owners in western India.

Everyone knows that RWITC has two main factions and they have not reconciled their differences which has seriously affected the horse racing in western India.The decrease in attendence and turnover over past few years,continuous increase in betting tax without any sincere or serious attempt by the club to reason out with state govt. is a manifestation of this infighting. However, if these 'men' can not find a better way to get even with their adverseries , they should not make a common punter a scapegoat to score a brownie point over others...

why Becket lost Maharaja's Cup?

2010-07-05T22:56:00.003+05:30

I wanted to start with a non-controversial subject but finding none I'll start with the defeat of Becket in the Maharaja's Cup.

Becket(60kg) was beaten by Arabian Prince(56k)and Onassis(54k)in this Terms race by neck and 1 1/4lengths(nk=1/4l).Many racegoers- including punters,blamed the jockey,the trainer and questioned the capability of the winner. I'll try to explain the loss/win using the ageold classic theories and priciples - none of them mine.

Out of several hundred races run at a racing center in a season ,some of them have an 'aura' or prestige attached to them like, Derby,1000G, 2000G and few more.Every participant(horse(!),owner,trainer,jockey) wants to win these races.this cup falls in this category.

Becket beat Onassis in Indian Derby by 5 lengths at level weight(57k) and in Invitation he beat Arabian Prince by 7 1/2 lengths,again at level weight(57k).

As per the age-old classical theories in races run over 2000m - one length= 1/2kg. and accepting the fact that in Indian Derby and Invitation cup EVERY runner is on job we can say that Becket is 2 1/2kg better than Onassis and 3 1/2 kg. better than Arabian Prince.

The weights allotted to these 2 runners gave them advantage over Becket and they proved it.
I'm not using the pedigree superiority of these runners over Becket at this moment.

These aberrations will recur in future again and again and a punter must be aware of it and safeguard his interest by taking into consideration various factors and parameters of racing.

resuming and activating the blog

2010-07-05T11:01:00.003+05:30

I regret that due to serious sickness of a close family member I was not able to keep my blog alive and was uncommunicative for more than two months.Things are now under control and I hope to revive the blog for my readers.

chanakya

MUMBAI 10/4/10

2010-04-10T13:43:00.002+05:30

MY SELECTIONS

1)(8-3)
2) 1-2
3)3-2
4)(3-4-1)
5)7-4-10
6)(2-4-5)
7)(2-13)

a brief on current Classic winners and runners

2010-04-06T23:24:00.001+05:30

Jacqueline, Becket, Change of Luck( Gypsy Magic) , Native Knight et al…

The Indian Classic racing scene during current winter season was dominated by above four runners and no serious race-goers looked beyond them .
Most of the readers , not all (perhaps), will agree that these 4 thoroughbreds were/are the best of the crop of 2006. Who is better than whom , at present, may not be conclusively assessed as lot of heat has been generated by interested as well as ignorant followers of these thoroughbreds(TBs) in various columns and forums.

I’ll try to confine this article ,primarily , to the published facts , then opine on them and in final paragraph will try to summarize my viewpoint.

Jacqueline (King Charlemagne- Talita Kumi)(odds -12/1) won her first race from 10th position at bend . She always was ‘come from behind’ type and ran in the rear – whether lost or won her race, except Invitation Cup race , where she was always in the first 3 runners. Here I’ll consider only the races she lost rather than the one which she won ! Her second race was Poonawalla Multimillion where she(12/1) came from 10th. position at bend and placed 3rd. a neck behind Gypsy Magic(Change of Luck-now) who was also at odds of 12/1 and was 14th. Or 15th. at bend, then drifted badly on entering straight- towards outer rails, losing many lengths and finally the race was won by late Versaki (Even) – the favorite beating Gypsy Magic and Jacqueline. In her next outing she beat Gypsy Magic(Change of Luck) – the favorite again ‘coming from behind’(10th.position) Her second loss after PBMM she was in Bangalore summer Derby and she and lost by short-head to Aboline – coming from 10th. Position(her favorite position?!!) but she beat Gypsy Magic by 7 lengths in this race . she won several races at Pune and Mumbai including 1000Guineas, 2000Guineas ,Indian Oaks and Indian Derby(by 3/4length) beating Becket in a hard fought duel .She lost to Becket , her final race – Indian Invitation Cup - by head , by running against her norm – joining the front bunch at an very early stage .

Becket(Hawk Wing – Boiling River) had won Bangalore Derby by beating You Are So Beautiful by 4 lengths and though You are So Beautiful had beaten a late finishing Change of Luck(Gypsy Magic) but the race was 1600m 1000 Guineas. Becket came down to Mumbai to challenge Jacqueline in Indian Derby and was beaten(3/4 length) by her convincingly. She was beaten by him in the last stride by head in Invitation cup. He lost Indian St. Leger to Change of Luck only by short-head.

Change of Luck – last progeny of Stunning, who may carry her legacy and definitely her genes , had been an enigmatic disappointment till she won the Leger. I must categorically state at this point that I consider Stunning the ‘best’ broodmare of last 20 years. Almost close to one hundred posts/comments have been published how and why Becket lost the race and Change Of Luck has won but unfortunately no one has bothered to analyse the reasons for the loss or the win of these 2 runners .The genetic aggressiveness of Becket may be his undoing ,while the ‘closing’ and incremental improvement during race – a trait visible in the progeny of Stunning must have helped Change of Luck. Secondly, the ‘staying’ ability of Stunning’s offspring will always be better than many Indigenous and imported breeds.

Native Knight(NK) is a real joker of the pack ! He fits in everywhere. Before winter classics I made a remark that given an opportunity he can win a regional classic. He didn’t try. The connections were/are wiser! Still a maiden he has won more than Rs. 60 lakhs for his connections – much more than a monkey(Green Monkey – bought for $ 16 million) who could not win a race in USA and is a stallion(!!!) there. Why didn’t they sell him( a gelding) to Poonawalla is a mystery.
To be honest to him I must confess that he was the ‘best moving runner ‘ in Indian St. Leger and if he can retain the ‘condition’ and tries (very unlikely) to run Bangalore St. Leger may add a classic to his name!

I’ve already discussed their pedigree in detail, which may bring Change of Luck very close – almost at par with Jacqueline but racing performance – the acid test of a thoroughbred , clearly puts Jacqueline ahead of them with the rider – the longer she (change of Luck) goes , the better she goes…