October month racing of 3 year olds in India is very peculiar . 3 regional Derbies are run in this month –Hyderabad monsoon Derby run always on 2nd. October, Pune and Mysore Derby run in 2nd. or 3rd. week of this month of October . All these races are run at 2000m and participants are 3 year old only. Except USA , where Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes (2400m) are run in May/June every year I do not recollect any other country runs 3 ‘regional’ classics – all 2000m within a short span of one month.
But we do it – in India!
Hyderabad Derby on 2 Oct. , Pune Derby on 11 Oct. and Mysore Derby on 18 Oct. may bring out some unexpected and unpleasant results.
Why?
Because , there is no outstanding runner at any of these racing centers, although Jacqueline and Aboline at Bangalore have categorically established their superiority over others but will they be running in these regional classics is to be seen from the final acceptance.
If they accept to run, then they are the winners! But will they run?
Ignoring them and accepting that they may not run in these regional classics , I must sat that following are my preferred (not selections) ‘runners’ for the regional Derbies…in alphabetical order :
Hyderabad : Al Fatha, Fleet Indian, Messalina, Red Renegade and Spot on
Pune :Cabriolet, Confiserie, Red Dragon , Sea Ruler
Mysore :Classerville, Gypsy Magic, Leonardo,Mystic Quest , Sprint Star.
I don’t know who will accept to run these races and a detailed analysis isa waste of time and therefore, I’ll take only Hyderabad Derby at this stage . for others I’ll express my opinion after acceptance to save my time and effort.
Hyderabad monsoon Derby:
Many runners will take part in this race but most probably the winner will emerge from Al Fatha, Fleet Indian, Messalina, Red Renegade and Spot On , if they decide to run. They are all 3year old and the factors to be considered for winning a race are : 1) performance, 2) class, 3) current form ,4) intention of connections 5) jockey,trainer, equipment change. Except the 4th. Factor all other factors are available in public domain.
Based on these parameters let us see what we can deduce about these contestants.
Al Fatha( Steinbeck-Anguilla) has always won as a fluke and failed as a favorite! His sire is maternal grandsire of Set Alight and his dam has won a race upto 2000m and Anguilla’s damsire EverydayII was a known stayer . In race no 116 after loitering in rear he picked up speed and ended 5th. Nothing much to talk about but flukes have never given a chance to talk about them!
Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’desperately’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) and staying 2000m will be no problem for him. But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. The connections may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon !
Messalina(Alnasr Alwasheek-Palazzio) and Red Renegade(Placerville- Sky Rocket) though trained by same trainer but belong to two different and powerful owners and if decide to run together in monsoon Derby will give goose pimples to many !
Messalina, daughter of Pallazzio is a daughter of a sprinter/ miler and if Icebreaker(daughter of Iceberg – a sprinter) can win 2 races of 2400m why can’t Messalina win a 2000m race ? The class , the speed and training may help her.
Red Renegade won a 1600m race from start to finish in a reasonably good time and though his dam Sky Rocket has to show nothing to talk about but the grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced 2 very good stayers in Moment of Glory and Beautiful Babe(Placerville- Bazooka Babe) , who won upto 2400m .Of course, Beautiful Babe can be a cousin or aunt of Red Renegade depending upon your perception of inbreeding!
Red Renegade should have no problem to stay 2000m.
Can some body beat Fleet Indian – no, if he is serious . but will he be serious ?
9/23/2009
3 year old winner- some opinions
3 year old runners …
A thoroughbred , whether born on 31 December(last year) or 1st. Jan this year will becomes 1 year old on 1st. Jan of next year of his/her date of birth . A runner born in January/February is MORE MATURE in July –Oct than the one born in April/May/June .
The winning chance of a first time runner(3 yo) must be considered on following basic parameters:
1) pedigree and its suitability for the distance of the race
2) current form( track work)
3) jockey
4) trainer’s performance
After June/July the factors to be taken in consideration are :
1) previous performance
2)current form
3) pedigree
4) jockey
5) connections intentions
6) trainer’s plan for that runner
studying these factors without prejudice a punter will get better results.
A thoroughbred , whether born on 31 December(last year) or 1st. Jan this year will becomes 1 year old on 1st. Jan of next year of his/her date of birth . A runner born in January/February is MORE MATURE in July –Oct than the one born in April/May/June .
The winning chance of a first time runner(3 yo) must be considered on following basic parameters:
1) pedigree and its suitability for the distance of the race
2) current form( track work)
3) jockey
4) trainer’s performance
After June/July the factors to be taken in consideration are :
1) previous performance
2)current form
3) pedigree
4) jockey
5) connections intentions
6) trainer’s plan for that runner
studying these factors without prejudice a punter will get better results.
9/16/2009
tips,tipsters and punters
Tips and Tipsters – some opinions
Horseracing is a game of skill…Finding a winner of a race needs evaluation of many factors…More factors you include in your analysis better should be the result…How many punters (gamblers) have time, patience to follow these basicprinciples…Very few, but they are quick to blame everyone – tipster, jockey,trainer and owner…
I am an occasional punter and a casual tipster.
I have read many postings and comments on various sites and blogs about free tips offered and their failure and the start of a blame-game against the tipsters. Sometimes a tipsters fails badly- many times not even one of their first choice wins and in one tipster’s case out of 21 selections given by him for 7 races only 2 won and those were second or third choices! But this happens occasionally and will happen again . Many times the race card tips fails miserably but no one writes about it ! Punters don’t stop buying that race card! But if a blogger’s tips fails the adverse comments and the language used is unbelievable.
Why?
The surfer who jumps from one site to another and from one blog to next thinks that it is his ‘birthright’ to get the tips which should win ‘always’ and most of the time. Who has given him this right or perhaps the idea? No one knows, perhaps. I certainly do not know…
Occasionally successful, sometimes failed tips, some wild tips(and their occasional success) made me realize that a tipster is always held in ridicule by these so called smarty Jones…Why?
Most of the tipsters are smalltime race aficionados who graduallygraduate to this position from humble beginnings and therefore,most of these gamblers take their opinions as a `necessary evil' andrely more on `khabar' and blame the tipster if their `forecast'fails… they don't have guts to blame the `khabri'….But what is a tip ?
A tip is a personal assessment/opinion about the winning chance ofa runner in a race. It can be right and of course it may be wrong…But who is a tipster ?A person who with sufficient/insufficient expertise provides this assessment/opinion…And who is a punter ?A person with money( hard earned/borrowed/black) and wants to makeit ‘grow’ - fast…But they are of 2 types…1) few- very few- who know horseracing, handicapping, anduse `khabar' to their advantage…they are privileged…ordinarypunter can not compete with them…2) the majority- called ‘public’, the majority of punters who buy a racebook before entering a racecourse and dream of winning a fortune…they are backbone of horseracing…
This, type/category of punters are those who depend on tips, followtipsters and blame them when they lose…they pay peanuts and desire toown thoroughbreds instead of monkeys… (said by a thoroughbredbreeder )…but what's the truth ?
early 70's a tipster, by the name – Galloper , used to chargeRs.20/- for a day's tip…gold was Rs 250/10gm. and real estate flats were sold at Rs.50/ to Rs. 70/- per sq.ft. at Andheri in Bombay… today gold is sold at Rs.10,000/-per 10 gm. and the minimum rate per sq.ft. at Andheri is Rs. 7000/-…
A tipster( say VM Dalal) still charges Rs.50/- for a day's tip while his predecessor charged Rs.20/- in 1970…what does a punter want ? pay peanuts and want to own a thoroughbredand not monkeys??Not convinced ? OK …let me give you a real life example…
Few years back, to be exact and to the point ,during 2003 Puneracing season ,RWITC in a rare show of wisdom announced a prizefor the best tipster of a PARTICULAR DAY… the announcement wasmade on 10th. raceday in September and the 18th. raceday inOctober was the D day. I have written an article earlier onthis subject and will not repeat it but will present only thesalient points…the study was limited and only readily available data was selectedThe study was carried out in the following way…The tipsters selected were from Mumbai and they were …1)Cole tipster 2)Cole track reporter 3)money Spinner 4)Lucky Spinner 5)Times of IndiaTO EVALUATE ONLY THEIR FIRST CHOICE WAS CONSIDEREDthe prize money was a whopping Rs. 100,000/-On 10th.day ( the day of announcement of the prize) theirperformance was as follows:COLE….COLE TR…M SPINNER…L SPINNER...T O I-20 ……… -26 ……. + 12……. -8…………… - 16 .
But after declaration of prize, their selections improved and on 18th. day the return was-16………..-23...............+18…………+6...,,,,,,,,,-36except TOI every other tipsters ROI has improved in anticipation of winning the bumper prize…after the prize was won by Gujrat Samachar tipster, theperformance of ALL the above tipsters went down…what does it prove ? pay peanuts – get monkeys…………………….Think before you blame the tipsters for their failure…
Horseracing is a game of skill…Finding a winner of a race needs evaluation of many factors…More factors you include in your analysis better should be the result…How many punters (gamblers) have time, patience to follow these basicprinciples…Very few, but they are quick to blame everyone – tipster, jockey,trainer and owner…
I am an occasional punter and a casual tipster.
I have read many postings and comments on various sites and blogs about free tips offered and their failure and the start of a blame-game against the tipsters. Sometimes a tipsters fails badly- many times not even one of their first choice wins and in one tipster’s case out of 21 selections given by him for 7 races only 2 won and those were second or third choices! But this happens occasionally and will happen again . Many times the race card tips fails miserably but no one writes about it ! Punters don’t stop buying that race card! But if a blogger’s tips fails the adverse comments and the language used is unbelievable.
Why?
The surfer who jumps from one site to another and from one blog to next thinks that it is his ‘birthright’ to get the tips which should win ‘always’ and most of the time. Who has given him this right or perhaps the idea? No one knows, perhaps. I certainly do not know…
Occasionally successful, sometimes failed tips, some wild tips(and their occasional success) made me realize that a tipster is always held in ridicule by these so called smarty Jones…Why?
Most of the tipsters are smalltime race aficionados who graduallygraduate to this position from humble beginnings and therefore,most of these gamblers take their opinions as a `necessary evil' andrely more on `khabar' and blame the tipster if their `forecast'fails… they don't have guts to blame the `khabri'….But what is a tip ?
A tip is a personal assessment/opinion about the winning chance ofa runner in a race. It can be right and of course it may be wrong…But who is a tipster ?A person who with sufficient/insufficient expertise provides this assessment/opinion…And who is a punter ?A person with money( hard earned/borrowed/black) and wants to makeit ‘grow’ - fast…But they are of 2 types…1) few- very few- who know horseracing, handicapping, anduse `khabar' to their advantage…they are privileged…ordinarypunter can not compete with them…2) the majority- called ‘public’, the majority of punters who buy a racebook before entering a racecourse and dream of winning a fortune…they are backbone of horseracing…
This, type/category of punters are those who depend on tips, followtipsters and blame them when they lose…they pay peanuts and desire toown thoroughbreds instead of monkeys… (said by a thoroughbredbreeder )…but what's the truth ?
early 70's a tipster, by the name – Galloper , used to chargeRs.20/- for a day's tip…gold was Rs 250/10gm. and real estate flats were sold at Rs.50/ to Rs. 70/- per sq.ft. at Andheri in Bombay… today gold is sold at Rs.10,000/-per 10 gm. and the minimum rate per sq.ft. at Andheri is Rs. 7000/-…
A tipster( say VM Dalal) still charges Rs.50/- for a day's tip while his predecessor charged Rs.20/- in 1970…what does a punter want ? pay peanuts and want to own a thoroughbredand not monkeys??Not convinced ? OK …let me give you a real life example…
Few years back, to be exact and to the point ,during 2003 Puneracing season ,RWITC in a rare show of wisdom announced a prizefor the best tipster of a PARTICULAR DAY… the announcement wasmade on 10th. raceday in September and the 18th. raceday inOctober was the D day. I have written an article earlier onthis subject and will not repeat it but will present only thesalient points…the study was limited and only readily available data was selectedThe study was carried out in the following way…The tipsters selected were from Mumbai and they were …1)Cole tipster 2)Cole track reporter 3)money Spinner 4)Lucky Spinner 5)Times of IndiaTO EVALUATE ONLY THEIR FIRST CHOICE WAS CONSIDEREDthe prize money was a whopping Rs. 100,000/-On 10th.day ( the day of announcement of the prize) theirperformance was as follows:COLE….COLE TR…M SPINNER…L SPINNER...T O I-20 ……… -26 ……. + 12……. -8…………… - 16 .
But after declaration of prize, their selections improved and on 18th. day the return was-16………..-23...............+18…………+6...,,,,,,,,,-36except TOI every other tipsters ROI has improved in anticipation of winning the bumper prize…after the prize was won by Gujrat Samachar tipster, theperformance of ALL the above tipsters went down…what does it prove ? pay peanuts – get monkeys…………………….Think before you blame the tipsters for their failure…
9/12/2009
versaki
Versaki should win his race , if waited with till bend and will be a live challenger to Jacqueline for the Pune Derby
9/11/2009
11/09/09
celtic charge should win and Dancing Dynamite should beat the fav...
for DD is a big if which can only be cleared on a non-controversial plateform. I mean , a sincere analysis of factor involving the race and the established facts...
can we do it in India? my guess is as good as yours...
for DD is a big if which can only be cleared on a non-controversial plateform. I mean , a sincere analysis of factor involving the race and the established facts...
can we do it in India? my guess is as good as yours...
9/08/2009
a small brief on Mystic Quest
Many youngsters - ‘covered’ abroad but born in India ,are doing pretty well encouraging thoroughbred importers to bring more and more mares .Jacqueline, Versaki, Celestial Wave, Polish Patriot and Astral Flash are some of the well performed youngsters who would be prominent in coming classics in winter season 2009-10. Unlike previous years when Set Alight, Southern Empire etc. had clearly established their superiority
over the competitors, at this time, there is no clear-cut runner- India bred or ‘got-abroad’ who can claim the kind of invincibility and this is a good sign for Indian racing and though recently it has become a ‘norm’ that big races are being won by ‘better- priced’ runner – some of them do have merit to beat the favorite!
Aboline’s lucky win of Bangalore Derby , Mystic Quest’s and Messalina’s win- all Indians- in preparatory races for winter classics - trained and sired by different trainers/sires also indicates that local bred thoroughbred can compete successfully with all the ‘hyped’ foreign-bred, nay, ‘foreign-conceived’ imports .
I’ll take just one example – Mystical Quest’s win.
Mystical Quest (Placerville-Free Radical) has beaten Celestial Wave(Orpen-Just Heavens Gate) , a got abroad (not exactly), favorite in Mysore 1000Guiness . How an
Indian thoroughbred(TB ) can beat a ‘fashionably or impeccably bred’ foreigner ? Beats the imagination of many who do not try to take all the factors (parameters) in correct perspective.
Let me start with the facts first.
Mystical Quest( MQ) did not look a frontline contender of MAM’s ‘fighters’ till she ran in Bangalore summer Guinness trial. She ran uninterested (-6L) till bend and realizing at 300/250m that her stable mate is beaten – Imran Khan pushed her hard and she did take over lead momentarily at 100m but was beaten by Jacqueline and Gypsy Magic at the winning post . Then she beat Sprint Star in a fight – with weight advantage , but just one second less than the course record. No big deal – many will say.
Celestial Wave (CW) an import did very well in summer –winning a 1400 race in 1m 25.5s. but her sire is Orpen and the dam is Just Heavens Gate(JHG) and both are ‘classified’ as sprinters. Please note that classified is in inverted commas , meaning thereby that I’ve my reservations on this opinion of ‘experts’ . As I’m no expert – till date no one has said that , I’ve to qualify my statements with these words! Therefore, let us have a look at Orpen – the sire and JHG – the dam of Celestial Wave(CW) .
Orpen (Roman No. 8-7-17-1-1) born in USA(Kentucky- Mecca of most of the successful sires) ran his races in Ireland and France and was retired to stud only after 6 runs though he won more than 1 lakh British Pounds in stakes money. His runs/wins were below a mile and he was termed a sprinter, because in his first 3 generations he has the blood (genes)of sprinter/miler But 4th. generation ancestors Tom Rolfe(USA) and Herberger (France) do provide a few strains of stamina . Many of Orpen’s ‘bachhas’ did well upto a mile! His sire Lure was a confirmed miler in US but his dam Bonita Francita had the staying blood and to top it all had Natalma -dam of Northern Dancer as her grand dam! Breeders will pay a fortune for Natalma’s genes because Northern Dancer’s are readily available .
Just Heavens Gate(JHG) – was a pure sprinter , though a daughter of Slip Anchor who won Epsom Derby and Shirley Heights sire of Slip Anchor and Mill Reef grand sire of Slip Anchor had also won the Epsom Derby – but JHG was and is termed a sprinter ! This is what breeding is . Let us see what her other progeny bring out on the racing scene in next few years .
But with all this blah blah or blabber what I actually want to say? Perhaps only this- that man proposes, nature finally disposes…
Whatever , permutations and combinations the breeders try , finally the will of nature prevails and the common perception that a sprinter sire when mated with a sprinter dam will produce a sprinter or at the most a miler proves true most of the time. And Celestial Wave a product of this combination proved this when she has won a 1400m race in very good time but lost a mile race.
This was from breeding and pedigree point of view , but the past performance which is readily available to even an ordinary punter we can safely say that Mystic Quest was better than Celestial Wave. How can we prove it? Let us try. Watch the run of MQ in Bangalore summer race no 77 and Mysore Monsoon race no 12 .In race no 77 she joined front runners but lost to better Gypsy Magic and Jacqueline but in race no 12 she ran 1600m in just 1 second short of course record ! Pedigree, breeding and past performance gives her the credence to beat a ’better bred’ foreign import and that is all I want to say.
In 1940’s an American used similar words : ‘when local bred beat foreign imports many times – why do we import them’ I echo same sentiments , but with a qualifying remark – we should import to improve the Indian breed . How do we do that is for the breeders to think, because I'm neither a breeder nor connected with them ...
over the competitors, at this time, there is no clear-cut runner- India bred or ‘got-abroad’ who can claim the kind of invincibility and this is a good sign for Indian racing and though recently it has become a ‘norm’ that big races are being won by ‘better- priced’ runner – some of them do have merit to beat the favorite!
Aboline’s lucky win of Bangalore Derby , Mystic Quest’s and Messalina’s win- all Indians- in preparatory races for winter classics - trained and sired by different trainers/sires also indicates that local bred thoroughbred can compete successfully with all the ‘hyped’ foreign-bred, nay, ‘foreign-conceived’ imports .
I’ll take just one example – Mystical Quest’s win.
Mystical Quest (Placerville-Free Radical) has beaten Celestial Wave(Orpen-Just Heavens Gate) , a got abroad (not exactly), favorite in Mysore 1000Guiness . How an
Indian thoroughbred(TB ) can beat a ‘fashionably or impeccably bred’ foreigner ? Beats the imagination of many who do not try to take all the factors (parameters) in correct perspective.
Let me start with the facts first.
Mystical Quest( MQ) did not look a frontline contender of MAM’s ‘fighters’ till she ran in Bangalore summer Guinness trial. She ran uninterested (-6L) till bend and realizing at 300/250m that her stable mate is beaten – Imran Khan pushed her hard and she did take over lead momentarily at 100m but was beaten by Jacqueline and Gypsy Magic at the winning post . Then she beat Sprint Star in a fight – with weight advantage , but just one second less than the course record. No big deal – many will say.
Celestial Wave (CW) an import did very well in summer –winning a 1400 race in 1m 25.5s. but her sire is Orpen and the dam is Just Heavens Gate(JHG) and both are ‘classified’ as sprinters. Please note that classified is in inverted commas , meaning thereby that I’ve my reservations on this opinion of ‘experts’ . As I’m no expert – till date no one has said that , I’ve to qualify my statements with these words! Therefore, let us have a look at Orpen – the sire and JHG – the dam of Celestial Wave(CW) .
Orpen (Roman No. 8-7-17-1-1) born in USA(Kentucky- Mecca of most of the successful sires) ran his races in Ireland and France and was retired to stud only after 6 runs though he won more than 1 lakh British Pounds in stakes money. His runs/wins were below a mile and he was termed a sprinter, because in his first 3 generations he has the blood (genes)of sprinter/miler But 4th. generation ancestors Tom Rolfe(USA) and Herberger (France) do provide a few strains of stamina . Many of Orpen’s ‘bachhas’ did well upto a mile! His sire Lure was a confirmed miler in US but his dam Bonita Francita had the staying blood and to top it all had Natalma -dam of Northern Dancer as her grand dam! Breeders will pay a fortune for Natalma’s genes because Northern Dancer’s are readily available .
Just Heavens Gate(JHG) – was a pure sprinter , though a daughter of Slip Anchor who won Epsom Derby and Shirley Heights sire of Slip Anchor and Mill Reef grand sire of Slip Anchor had also won the Epsom Derby – but JHG was and is termed a sprinter ! This is what breeding is . Let us see what her other progeny bring out on the racing scene in next few years .
But with all this blah blah or blabber what I actually want to say? Perhaps only this- that man proposes, nature finally disposes…
Whatever , permutations and combinations the breeders try , finally the will of nature prevails and the common perception that a sprinter sire when mated with a sprinter dam will produce a sprinter or at the most a miler proves true most of the time. And Celestial Wave a product of this combination proved this when she has won a 1400m race in very good time but lost a mile race.
This was from breeding and pedigree point of view , but the past performance which is readily available to even an ordinary punter we can safely say that Mystic Quest was better than Celestial Wave. How can we prove it? Let us try. Watch the run of MQ in Bangalore summer race no 77 and Mysore Monsoon race no 12 .In race no 77 she joined front runners but lost to better Gypsy Magic and Jacqueline but in race no 12 she ran 1600m in just 1 second short of course record ! Pedigree, breeding and past performance gives her the credence to beat a ’better bred’ foreign import and that is all I want to say.
In 1940’s an American used similar words : ‘when local bred beat foreign imports many times – why do we import them’ I echo same sentiments , but with a qualifying remark – we should import to improve the Indian breed . How do we do that is for the breeders to think, because I'm neither a breeder nor connected with them ...
9/06/2009
opinion for the day
Riding fantasy and Titan should win.
Mr Greedy can cause an upset
Fleet Indian In Hyderabad 2000G is better than others
Mr Greedy can cause an upset
Fleet Indian In Hyderabad 2000G is better than others
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