my choice on Pune Derby day are :
1)Blueray
2)Jacqueline
3)Versaki
4)Estevez
5)True Elegance
10/11/2009
10/06/2009
Pune Derby - some opinions
Pune Derby has an interesting line up of middle distance( upto 2000m) runners who may not be able to go beyond 2000m and therefore may not be able to make an impact in Indian Derby or Indian Oaks to be run next year.
One thing in my mind is very clear that the present crop of 3 year olds allover India has no outstanding runner of the stature of Set Alight, Southern Empire etc. who swept everything before them but failed at the crucial stage of their career . Whether the failure was due to their inherent weakness or ‘man made’ will be shrouded in mystery –like the death of Phar Lap in USA or the tragic breakdown of Ruffian or Barbaro.
Leaving the history behind ,let us have a closer look at the contenders of Pune Derby.
The winner may be any one of the following, (alphabetically arranged) :
1) Cabriolet
2) Classerville
3) Confiserie
4) Red Dragon
5) Versaki
In my opinion, 3 most important variables (parameters) to win a classic race are :
a) past performance ,
b) current form,
c) pedigree .
To reach a conclusion I correlate all the 3 variables . Performance and pedigree details are available but the ‘current form ‘ can be assessed only few days before the actual race . Therefore, the opinion expressed below must be correlated with the current track of the runner before arriving at a decision . At this time I’ll discuss only the past performance and the pedigree pointers and if the ‘current form’ of a runner is as good as other he or she does stand a chance to win. We will analyse all of them in alphabatical order as given above.
Cabriolet (Glory of Dancer- Highland Ghillie)
Glory of Dancer is the sire of many classic and Black type winners and the data about him can be accessed from many websites.
Highland Ghillie (Storm Trooper- Cut of the Cloth) has a very interesting pedigree. Her sire - Storm Trooper, a son of Diesis out of Stormette, has produced two Pune Derby winners – Aquilo and Artois and several semiclassic winners and has the highest AWD (average winning distance of progeny) which is 1565m indicating that his progeny are more comfortable at longer distances.
Cut of the Cloth – dam of Highland Gillie placed 3rd. in Bay Meadows Oaks has produced two classic winners – Zurbran and Artois. Zurbran was surprised by Noble Eagle in Indian Derby but he avenged his defeat by winning Invitation cup and Indian St. Leger and many other races . This pedigree line points that 2000m distance will be ideal for this runner . His performance over 1600m is better than most of competitors and with judicious riding he will be a live threat to the favorite.
Versaki :
Versaki(Verglas- Ghassak) is sired by a sprinter (Verglas) out of a stayer(Ghassak) dam – an universally accepted formula and is the highest rated runner because he has won all his races till date including the last race of 1800m.
Verglas (Roman Dosage : 7-7-8-0-0) is a reasonably good sire and his main attribute – speed complements the staying ability of Ghassak. She is sired by Persian Bold whose ability to tranmit his traits are proven by his progeny.
Verglas is a very young ( they call them freshman sire) sire and and has very good record of (16% stakes winner- none of them in India) wins of his progeny! He is a ‘commercial’ sire like Storm Cat or Storm Bird and has performed very well as a new sire. He has a plethora of very famous names in his pedigree – Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, Secretariat,Dr Fager, Raise a Native, Nasrullah etc. to name a few. I’ve not named a single female ancestor, till now, to satisfy my critics who say that I always try to highlight female lines and pull down the sire lines! Another point brought out by some is that I never write about Indian sires and highlight only foreign sires. My answer is that most of the punters know about Indian sires but nobody gives them any information about foreign sires and I try to provide this info sothat they can assess themselves the merit of the sires of various runners.
Highest Honour (Roman no: 11-9-10-0-0)– sire of Verglas was a champion miler, a middle distance specialist.(winner of 1600 and 1850m –grade I races) is from Grey Sovereign line and has 4 lines of Nasrullah .
Ghassak(Persian Bold-Anjuli) has Roman Dosage(6-2-2-4-0) indicating clearly that she is more comfortable at route races and to prove that she did win a 2200m race and produced winners over 2000m and 2400m .Breeding is not an exact science but analogy and produce history reinforces the belief that Versaki can easily stay 2000m. Ghassak – dam of Versaki, an ‘old matron’ came to India at the ripe old age of 14 yrs and Versaki is her 8th foal – born in India. Her dam sire , Northfields is a winner of 2 US regional Derbies which should add few points to Versaki’s ability. He should be a live contender for races upto 2000m. If his current form , at the time of run, matches the competitors he should win the race.
Confiserie :
After running insignificant 3rd. in 2 races of 1400m Confiserie, was placed in a ‘plate race’ of 1800m to run with many experienced, accomplished but maiden runners and obviously was at lucrative odds. I was impressed by Confiserie (Placerville- Sprungli) win on 20/9/09 at Pune. Clocking 1m 51.1s for 1800m , which is 1.5 second better than Yana’s (class I ) on the same day!
She had nondescript runs earlier ,but this daughter of Sprungli can match strides with other 3yos and should beat them if tried seriously. Placerville is a well-known sire - sire of innumerable classic winners but Sprungli has run and won several races in class I including few graded races .She placed 3rd. in Indian Derby and her maternal grandsire – Treasure Leaf was a potent source of stamina . After Jacqueline and Versaki I rate her as the third best western India challenger and if prepared suitably and earnestly she will be a live threat to these ‘imported’ Indians! It will be interesting to watch her career graph .
Red Dragon:
Red Dragon(Major Impact- Zillion Figlia) has won a 1800m race at Pune but the dam does not encourage the staying abilities of this runner and if he wins I’ll be be most surprised watcher of the race. Then I’ll have to go deep in the pedigree of this runner and come out with a reasonable explanation. He was always in the front bunch of runners during Hyderabad Derby and may not have relished the underfoot condition . But I still maintain that he can not win this race ,unless it is offered to him on a platter!
Classerville (Placerville – Pleasure Hunt)
I’ve already written about him during Bangalore Derby and Mysore 2000 Guiness and I don’t think I can add anything more to his performance. You are advised to read my earlier postings about him...
This is in response to Tiger’s query about the chances of First Empire in the Pune Derby.
First Empire (Placerville- Star Spangled) has an enigmatic racing record as well as a pedigree which is more confusing than enlightening.
Let us first study the pedigree then analyse the race records.
Placerville is a very well known sire in India . The dam of First Empire – Star Spangled ( Riyahi- Star of the Stage) is basically a stayer or a mid distance runner having won 2 races of 1800m and 2000m which is backed by her Roman numbers which are (8-3-15-2-0). But she has defied the basic breeding theories in that though she has won route races most of her progeny are sprinters or at most have gone upto a mile. But her best known daughter – Blue Horizon owned by Jhangianis was a classic sprinter who has won Sprinters classic and many black type sprint races . She reminds me of Truffa whose first offspring- Velvet Rope won Indian Derby , beating Mystical and Holding Court in a fierce fight in last 200m; but her other progeny – Petronella, Own Voice could not go beyond 1200m- ofcourse both were sired by a sprinter!
The grand dam of First Empire ,called Star of the Stage has more ‘stars’ in her pedigree than most of the famous sires and imported dams. Nureyev, Northern Dancer, Forli, Thong, Special, SomethingRoyal. You name them and they are there – giving her much better dosage point than most of our sires- Indian and imported ! Her Roman numbers(9-8-33-2-0) add up to 52 but also indicate that with all the ‘inputs’ from the celebrated sires and dams in her pedigree she has more concentration for mid distance (1600-2000m). when coverd by Riyahi((12-2-3-5-0) who added a significant amount of speed of Red God(30-8-8-4-0) she produced Star Spangled who could outrun the competition .
But we are digressing from the main point , which is , the probability of First Empire winning the Pune Derby.
Let me start with a known fact. If Sparks can win Hyderabad Derby why can’t First Empire win this Pune Derby. He can.
Let us analyse his race records, because pedigree analysis says that he can , or to be safe – he may.
But can he win – probably not, unless his current form is much better than his main competitors.
After having a feel of the racetrack in Mumbai he ran at Pune in race no 3 as a favorite and lost to Red Dragon badly. His next engagement was race no 37(1600m) where he led till 200m and lost to Imperio who won another 1800m race in poor timing. His 3rd. run in race no 110(1800m) was good. Held in check till bend he came up well in closing stages but was no threat to his conquerer – Red Dragon , and ended third.
His pedigree is excellent, performance(race record) is average and only smashing trackwork can catapult him to the board. Getting winning bracket is difficult.
Still there is hope. If Sparks can do it – why can’t he?
One thing in my mind is very clear that the present crop of 3 year olds allover India has no outstanding runner of the stature of Set Alight, Southern Empire etc. who swept everything before them but failed at the crucial stage of their career . Whether the failure was due to their inherent weakness or ‘man made’ will be shrouded in mystery –like the death of Phar Lap in USA or the tragic breakdown of Ruffian or Barbaro.
Leaving the history behind ,let us have a closer look at the contenders of Pune Derby.
The winner may be any one of the following, (alphabetically arranged) :
1) Cabriolet
2) Classerville
3) Confiserie
4) Red Dragon
5) Versaki
In my opinion, 3 most important variables (parameters) to win a classic race are :
a) past performance ,
b) current form,
c) pedigree .
To reach a conclusion I correlate all the 3 variables . Performance and pedigree details are available but the ‘current form ‘ can be assessed only few days before the actual race . Therefore, the opinion expressed below must be correlated with the current track of the runner before arriving at a decision . At this time I’ll discuss only the past performance and the pedigree pointers and if the ‘current form’ of a runner is as good as other he or she does stand a chance to win. We will analyse all of them in alphabatical order as given above.
Cabriolet (Glory of Dancer- Highland Ghillie)
Glory of Dancer is the sire of many classic and Black type winners and the data about him can be accessed from many websites.
Highland Ghillie (Storm Trooper- Cut of the Cloth) has a very interesting pedigree. Her sire - Storm Trooper, a son of Diesis out of Stormette, has produced two Pune Derby winners – Aquilo and Artois and several semiclassic winners and has the highest AWD (average winning distance of progeny) which is 1565m indicating that his progeny are more comfortable at longer distances.
Cut of the Cloth – dam of Highland Gillie placed 3rd. in Bay Meadows Oaks has produced two classic winners – Zurbran and Artois. Zurbran was surprised by Noble Eagle in Indian Derby but he avenged his defeat by winning Invitation cup and Indian St. Leger and many other races . This pedigree line points that 2000m distance will be ideal for this runner . His performance over 1600m is better than most of competitors and with judicious riding he will be a live threat to the favorite.
Versaki :
Versaki(Verglas- Ghassak) is sired by a sprinter (Verglas) out of a stayer(Ghassak) dam – an universally accepted formula and is the highest rated runner because he has won all his races till date including the last race of 1800m.
Verglas (Roman Dosage : 7-7-8-0-0) is a reasonably good sire and his main attribute – speed complements the staying ability of Ghassak. She is sired by Persian Bold whose ability to tranmit his traits are proven by his progeny.
Verglas is a very young ( they call them freshman sire) sire and and has very good record of (16% stakes winner- none of them in India) wins of his progeny! He is a ‘commercial’ sire like Storm Cat or Storm Bird and has performed very well as a new sire. He has a plethora of very famous names in his pedigree – Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, Secretariat,Dr Fager, Raise a Native, Nasrullah etc. to name a few. I’ve not named a single female ancestor, till now, to satisfy my critics who say that I always try to highlight female lines and pull down the sire lines! Another point brought out by some is that I never write about Indian sires and highlight only foreign sires. My answer is that most of the punters know about Indian sires but nobody gives them any information about foreign sires and I try to provide this info sothat they can assess themselves the merit of the sires of various runners.
Highest Honour (Roman no: 11-9-10-0-0)– sire of Verglas was a champion miler, a middle distance specialist.(winner of 1600 and 1850m –grade I races) is from Grey Sovereign line and has 4 lines of Nasrullah .
Ghassak(Persian Bold-Anjuli) has Roman Dosage(6-2-2-4-0) indicating clearly that she is more comfortable at route races and to prove that she did win a 2200m race and produced winners over 2000m and 2400m .Breeding is not an exact science but analogy and produce history reinforces the belief that Versaki can easily stay 2000m. Ghassak – dam of Versaki, an ‘old matron’ came to India at the ripe old age of 14 yrs and Versaki is her 8th foal – born in India. Her dam sire , Northfields is a winner of 2 US regional Derbies which should add few points to Versaki’s ability. He should be a live contender for races upto 2000m. If his current form , at the time of run, matches the competitors he should win the race.
Confiserie :
After running insignificant 3rd. in 2 races of 1400m Confiserie, was placed in a ‘plate race’ of 1800m to run with many experienced, accomplished but maiden runners and obviously was at lucrative odds. I was impressed by Confiserie (Placerville- Sprungli) win on 20/9/09 at Pune. Clocking 1m 51.1s for 1800m , which is 1.5 second better than Yana’s (class I ) on the same day!
She had nondescript runs earlier ,but this daughter of Sprungli can match strides with other 3yos and should beat them if tried seriously. Placerville is a well-known sire - sire of innumerable classic winners but Sprungli has run and won several races in class I including few graded races .She placed 3rd. in Indian Derby and her maternal grandsire – Treasure Leaf was a potent source of stamina . After Jacqueline and Versaki I rate her as the third best western India challenger and if prepared suitably and earnestly she will be a live threat to these ‘imported’ Indians! It will be interesting to watch her career graph .
Red Dragon:
Red Dragon(Major Impact- Zillion Figlia) has won a 1800m race at Pune but the dam does not encourage the staying abilities of this runner and if he wins I’ll be be most surprised watcher of the race. Then I’ll have to go deep in the pedigree of this runner and come out with a reasonable explanation. He was always in the front bunch of runners during Hyderabad Derby and may not have relished the underfoot condition . But I still maintain that he can not win this race ,unless it is offered to him on a platter!
Classerville (Placerville – Pleasure Hunt)
I’ve already written about him during Bangalore Derby and Mysore 2000 Guiness and I don’t think I can add anything more to his performance. You are advised to read my earlier postings about him...
This is in response to Tiger’s query about the chances of First Empire in the Pune Derby.
First Empire (Placerville- Star Spangled) has an enigmatic racing record as well as a pedigree which is more confusing than enlightening.
Let us first study the pedigree then analyse the race records.
Placerville is a very well known sire in India . The dam of First Empire – Star Spangled ( Riyahi- Star of the Stage) is basically a stayer or a mid distance runner having won 2 races of 1800m and 2000m which is backed by her Roman numbers which are (8-3-15-2-0). But she has defied the basic breeding theories in that though she has won route races most of her progeny are sprinters or at most have gone upto a mile. But her best known daughter – Blue Horizon owned by Jhangianis was a classic sprinter who has won Sprinters classic and many black type sprint races . She reminds me of Truffa whose first offspring- Velvet Rope won Indian Derby , beating Mystical and Holding Court in a fierce fight in last 200m; but her other progeny – Petronella, Own Voice could not go beyond 1200m- ofcourse both were sired by a sprinter!
The grand dam of First Empire ,called Star of the Stage has more ‘stars’ in her pedigree than most of the famous sires and imported dams. Nureyev, Northern Dancer, Forli, Thong, Special, SomethingRoyal. You name them and they are there – giving her much better dosage point than most of our sires- Indian and imported ! Her Roman numbers(9-8-33-2-0) add up to 52 but also indicate that with all the ‘inputs’ from the celebrated sires and dams in her pedigree she has more concentration for mid distance (1600-2000m). when coverd by Riyahi((12-2-3-5-0) who added a significant amount of speed of Red God(30-8-8-4-0) she produced Star Spangled who could outrun the competition .
But we are digressing from the main point , which is , the probability of First Empire winning the Pune Derby.
Let me start with a known fact. If Sparks can win Hyderabad Derby why can’t First Empire win this Pune Derby. He can.
Let us analyse his race records, because pedigree analysis says that he can , or to be safe – he may.
But can he win – probably not, unless his current form is much better than his main competitors.
After having a feel of the racetrack in Mumbai he ran at Pune in race no 3 as a favorite and lost to Red Dragon badly. His next engagement was race no 37(1600m) where he led till 200m and lost to Imperio who won another 1800m race in poor timing. His 3rd. run in race no 110(1800m) was good. Held in check till bend he came up well in closing stages but was no threat to his conquerer – Red Dragon , and ended third.
His pedigree is excellent, performance(race record) is average and only smashing trackwork can catapult him to the board. Getting winning bracket is difficult.
Still there is hope. If Sparks can do it – why can’t he?
10/02/2009
Hyderabad Derby day
Mayfair Girl ,Ivory Snow, Spot On should win and Bernardo is an eachway chance.
for Derby I'm going to place my tenner on Fleet Indian but hedge him with Red Renegade.
for Derby I'm going to place my tenner on Fleet Indian but hedge him with Red Renegade.
Hyderabad Derby on 2/10/09- some opinions
Fleeting glance at Hyderabad Derby winners:
Only 3 criteria - Pedigree , Class and performance will be considered .
It is sometimes embarrassing to speak out of turn – especially when talking to skeptics and Indian race goers are no exception . Without knowing the entries, handicaps , riders , current form, acceptance to say that ‘X’ runner is better than ‘Y’ runner is risky and I did take that risk -10days before the actual running of Hyderabad Derby.
Some additions to the acceptance made it mandatory to talk about some more of them and -take a ‘fleeting glance’ at some of them . Following is my opinion about them – considering class, pedigree and performance only.
Al Fatha( Steinbeck-Anguilla) has always won as a fluke and failed as a favorite! His sire is maternal grandsire of Set Alight and his dam has won a race upto 2000m and Anguilla’s damsire EverydayII was a known stayer . In race no 116 after loitering in rear he picked up speed and ended 5th. Nothing much to talk about but flukes have never given a chance to talk about them!
Cambiasso(Razeen-Gourgandine) is a disgrace to the pedigree . the sire and dam have produced Allied Forces and Perceived Value – both winners over 2400m+ and this gelding ‘refusing’ to win a single race surprises me . He can not win this race, with this kind of performance.
Davenport(Steinbeck- Congratulations) . The dam has won Indian Oaks(2400m) but has not produced any good runner, though Davenport seems to be the best of her produce till date. With a bit of luck he may win .
Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’desperately’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) and staying 2000m will be no problem for him. But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. The connections may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon ! He is the best of the lot – performance wise , but can he win ? Intention of the connections and the kind of run will prove it.
Leonardo(Tirol- Island Charm) was closing in(Bangalore race no 94) on Sprint Star – shock winner, in Colts Trial at Bangalore and a worthy winner of Mysore 2000 Guinness recently . His performance in Gypsy Magic winning race no 173 was more intriguing –placing 5th. from nowhere! Bustino in his pedigree confirms that he can run upto 2400m- but will he? He is a live threat unless ‘ they’ have some other plans. Let us wait, watch and see.
Red Dragon(Major Impact- Zillion Figlia) has won a 1800m race at Pune but the dam does not encourage the staying abilities of this runner and if he wins I’ll be be most surprised watcher of the race. Then I’ll have to go deep in the pedigree of this runner and come out with a reasonable explanation.
Red Renegade( Placerville- Sky Rocket) won a1600m race start to finish proving his staying ability. His grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced not one but two runners who have won over 2800m confirming that he will have no problem over this distance .
The race is wide open and I’ll short list Fleet Indian ,Leonardo, Red Renegade and Davenport but a fluke can not be ruled out – who may be Al Fatah or Red Dragon
Only 3 criteria - Pedigree , Class and performance will be considered .
It is sometimes embarrassing to speak out of turn – especially when talking to skeptics and Indian race goers are no exception . Without knowing the entries, handicaps , riders , current form, acceptance to say that ‘X’ runner is better than ‘Y’ runner is risky and I did take that risk -10days before the actual running of Hyderabad Derby.
Some additions to the acceptance made it mandatory to talk about some more of them and -take a ‘fleeting glance’ at some of them . Following is my opinion about them – considering class, pedigree and performance only.
Al Fatha( Steinbeck-Anguilla) has always won as a fluke and failed as a favorite! His sire is maternal grandsire of Set Alight and his dam has won a race upto 2000m and Anguilla’s damsire EverydayII was a known stayer . In race no 116 after loitering in rear he picked up speed and ended 5th. Nothing much to talk about but flukes have never given a chance to talk about them!
Cambiasso(Razeen-Gourgandine) is a disgrace to the pedigree . the sire and dam have produced Allied Forces and Perceived Value – both winners over 2400m+ and this gelding ‘refusing’ to win a single race surprises me . He can not win this race, with this kind of performance.
Davenport(Steinbeck- Congratulations) . The dam has won Indian Oaks(2400m) but has not produced any good runner, though Davenport seems to be the best of her produce till date. With a bit of luck he may win .
Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’desperately’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) and staying 2000m will be no problem for him. But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. The connections may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon ! He is the best of the lot – performance wise , but can he win ? Intention of the connections and the kind of run will prove it.
Leonardo(Tirol- Island Charm) was closing in(Bangalore race no 94) on Sprint Star – shock winner, in Colts Trial at Bangalore and a worthy winner of Mysore 2000 Guinness recently . His performance in Gypsy Magic winning race no 173 was more intriguing –placing 5th. from nowhere! Bustino in his pedigree confirms that he can run upto 2400m- but will he? He is a live threat unless ‘ they’ have some other plans. Let us wait, watch and see.
Red Dragon(Major Impact- Zillion Figlia) has won a 1800m race at Pune but the dam does not encourage the staying abilities of this runner and if he wins I’ll be be most surprised watcher of the race. Then I’ll have to go deep in the pedigree of this runner and come out with a reasonable explanation.
Red Renegade( Placerville- Sky Rocket) won a1600m race start to finish proving his staying ability. His grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced not one but two runners who have won over 2800m confirming that he will have no problem over this distance .
The race is wide open and I’ll short list Fleet Indian ,Leonardo, Red Renegade and Davenport but a fluke can not be ruled out – who may be Al Fatah or Red Dragon
10/01/2009
Mysore 1/10.09
in first race Winning Attitude can win if connections are serious otherwise better to play place bet
races no 6,7 and 8 are very competitive and any one can win :
my preference and not selection is :
race no 6 : 4-1-2-3
race no 7: 2-1-9-3
race no 8: 1-11-6-4
races no 6,7 and 8 are very competitive and any one can win :
my preference and not selection is :
race no 6 : 4-1-2-3
race no 7: 2-1-9-3
race no 8: 1-11-6-4
9/28/2009
hyderabad 28/09/09
Arabian Dancer and Vijayrath should win their respective races , if on job.
note the flow of money and decide.
note the flow of money and decide.
9/27/2009
Pune- Hyderabad 27/09/09
Pune races
following should win
Thanda, Sea Queen and River Star.
Hyderabad- Chesapeake has a good chance to win - jockey is the question.
following should win
Thanda, Sea Queen and River Star.
Hyderabad- Chesapeake has a good chance to win - jockey is the question.
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