Sequel to let us play the game
My aim to start this exercise ( experiment) is to test my system’s success/failure for all types of punters. Some punters play only one or sometimes 2 races in a day, some play 2 to 4 races and few try their luck with all the races of the day. To satisfy all these different types of punters I’ve designed this exercise.
My data is not stored on computer and my typing speed is slow(7/8WPM) and I workout my ratings manually incorporating various factors – speed, form, breeding, track variant penetrometre reading etc. All this takes 6 to 8 hours on a normal race day . Sometimes, e.g., Derby race or an important or complicated race I may have to spend 2 to 3 hours on one race itself! The methodology does not allow me more than ½ hour to decide the final selections – 3 for each race, 24 for 8 races and 1 selection for 1st. category of punter and 2 or more for 2nd. category.
The selections will , therefore, be posted on the blog - not in the morning, but at any time BEFORE the 1st race of the day and IF DELAYED then selections of the races ALREADY RUN will be DELETED from the list before the posting. Race to race posting will not be done because I would like to be present on the race course to bet my ‘tenner’ on my selections!
Let me repeat the rules of the game once more.
1) betting unit – Rs. 1000/- Capital Rs. 20,000/- each category.
2) incremental increase ( Rs.1000/- + 50% win of previous race) for Cat I & II only
3) constant unit(Rs.10/- or more) ,without incremental increase, for Cat III
4) ‘Jodi’ race- equal amount on both, Eachway- one unit on win 2 units on place
5) any race with prefix/suffix -OPEN race – unit bet on ALL 3 selections.
6) Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad centers only will be considered.
7) Tax @ 10 % will be considered for every bet
I will judge my success or failure based on these rules on Tuesday of next week .
Let me explain the method I’ll use from the selections given in Cat II for 7,8 and 9 November 2009 for Bangalore and Hyderabad races.
Bangalore : 7 November 2009
------------------------------------.
Name Investment Return Profit/(Loss) Capital Increase
Rashida-W 1000 1800 800 400
R’ford-EW 3000 0 (3000) 0
C’vating-W 1000 1650 650 350
GMagic-W 1300 3250 1950 950
S’Lady-EW 3000 3000 1000 3000
Tax (930)
Net Profit/Loss= Retun-Investment =9700-8930 = +Rs.770/-
Hyderabad : 8 November 2009
SScot-W 1000 1500 500 300
IM’tain-W 1200 0 (1200) 0
Cefiro-P 1000 1800 800 400
VSena-EW 3000 0 (3000) 0
Tax (620) 0
Net Profit/(loss) = 3300 -6820 = - Rs.3520/-
Hyderabad : 9 November 2009
Manduro-P 1000 4000 3000 1500
P’ti/T’H-W1250/1250 3250 750 350
P Doll-W 1400 9800 8400 4200
JG-EW 4200 0 (4200) 0
Tax (910)
Net Profit/(loss) =20410 – 10010 = + Rs. 10410/-
Net Profit/(loss) for the week = Rs.770 – Rs 3520 + Rs. 10410 =Rs. 7650/- Profit
11/11/2009
11/10/2009
Let us start a game
I have been experimenting with my speed rating system and based on ‘speed rating numbers’ I post my selections. In 2005 and 2007 I used to post my selections on IR.com website and IHRB forum. Though they have been removed from IR.com on forum they are still there along with my analysis . In 2008 , I posted these selections on TurfParrot site in Mar/April and had very successful strike rate.
Many punters, analysts and race goers opine that you can not make profit from races . I do not agree. To prove my point I’ll start posting my choice based on my system in 3 different categories for a particular race day :
1) one choice (win or place or win/place)only,
2) several choices ,
3) full race card selections.
My typing speed is only 7/8 WPM ,therefore, I’ll not give detailed comments .
My betting unit will be Rs. 1000/- for 1st. and 2nd. category and ‘one unit’ – which can be Rs.10/- or Rs. 100/- or Rs. 1000/-(but calculated in unit format only) for the 3rd.category .
My target will be Rs. 50,000/- win or loss for the first two categories and I’ll stop the moment I win or lose that amount for these 2 , but will continue for the 3rd. category till end of the season when I’ll calculate my winning/losing units.
While my betting unit will be CONSTANT for 3rd. category it will INCREASE after a win and will remain SAME (Rs.1000/-) after a loss. If I win , 50% of win will be added to next bet and 50% goes to my ‘profit account’. But - if I lose, I’ll start again with standard betting unit ,which is Rs. 1000/-.
Every 2 or 3 years I modify/change/reconstruct my system and use it to find out its efficacy and performance. I’m still experimenting and WARN readers to observe and NOT TO BET ON MY SELECTIONS WITHOUT MY EXPLICIT APPROVAL. I’m not using a disclaimer and I don’t need that after explaining that this is an experiment!
My postings will not be at a fixed time and will be posted as and when my calculations are complete – but will be BEFORE the RUN of the race of the selection .
Let us start and find out the ‘winning street’!
My selections for 2nd. category are already out and for 1st. and 3rd. category will start from 14th. November.
Many punters, analysts and race goers opine that you can not make profit from races . I do not agree. To prove my point I’ll start posting my choice based on my system in 3 different categories for a particular race day :
1) one choice (win or place or win/place)only,
2) several choices ,
3) full race card selections.
My typing speed is only 7/8 WPM ,therefore, I’ll not give detailed comments .
My betting unit will be Rs. 1000/- for 1st. and 2nd. category and ‘one unit’ – which can be Rs.10/- or Rs. 100/- or Rs. 1000/-(but calculated in unit format only) for the 3rd.category .
My target will be Rs. 50,000/- win or loss for the first two categories and I’ll stop the moment I win or lose that amount for these 2 , but will continue for the 3rd. category till end of the season when I’ll calculate my winning/losing units.
While my betting unit will be CONSTANT for 3rd. category it will INCREASE after a win and will remain SAME (Rs.1000/-) after a loss. If I win , 50% of win will be added to next bet and 50% goes to my ‘profit account’. But - if I lose, I’ll start again with standard betting unit ,which is Rs. 1000/-.
Every 2 or 3 years I modify/change/reconstruct my system and use it to find out its efficacy and performance. I’m still experimenting and WARN readers to observe and NOT TO BET ON MY SELECTIONS WITHOUT MY EXPLICIT APPROVAL. I’m not using a disclaimer and I don’t need that after explaining that this is an experiment!
My postings will not be at a fixed time and will be posted as and when my calculations are complete – but will be BEFORE the RUN of the race of the selection .
Let us start and find out the ‘winning street’!
My selections for 2nd. category are already out and for 1st. and 3rd. category will start from 14th. November.
11/09/2009
Hyderabad 9 Nov
today also bad day for punters but not as bad as yesterday...
Sugar Gold -place(odds less than 6)
Manduro- place
Pavarotti-Tillcowscomehome- one of them should win
Rainbow Fog -win, Habituated -fluke
Party Doll- good chance towin,if on job
John Galt- eachway
Sugar Gold -place(odds less than 6)
Manduro- place
Pavarotti-Tillcowscomehome- one of them should win
Rainbow Fog -win, Habituated -fluke
Party Doll- good chance towin,if on job
John Galt- eachway
11/08/2009
hyderabad 8 November
today is fluke day
Splendid Scot-win
Ice Mountain-win
Cefiro-place
Vijaysena- eachway
Splendid Scot-win
Ice Mountain-win
Cefiro-place
Vijaysena- eachway
11/07/2009
Bangalore 7 November
Rashida - win
redford- eachway
captivating-win
gypsy magi- win
she's a lady-eachway
redford- eachway
captivating-win
gypsy magi- win
she's a lady-eachway
11/04/2009
male vs female thoroughbred - a finding
My ambition is to create an even playing field for all the participants and in the attempt to achieve this aim , I sometime annoy and antagonize many powerful and influential sections of racing fraternity. But I don’t care because I neither live on their dole nor need their approval.
Many times on several occasions I’ve advocated that a female thoroughbred is as versatile and capable as a male one and tried to prove it by scientific methods (mitochondria et al) and by empirical methods proving that a mare ‘s average winning per year is as good as that of a champion sire in India !
To augment this point I would like to post following facts.
While updating my system I discovered that our notion of male superiority is wrong at least in the case of thoroughbreds! Here is the result of the preliminary findings.
Working on Pune track(monsoon as well as main) foe 1200m the winning percentage of female runners for different class for the period 1990- 2000(10 years) is as follows:
Class I – 25%
classII - 50%
class III - 68%
class IV – 56%
class A - 23%
3 yo only- 51%
Except Class I (top class) and Class A the ‘weaker’ sex wins more races than male thoroughbreds! The low percentage for these classes may be attributed to the fact that hardly any mare 5years+ will be running races in higher class because she is more useful in the breeding shed than on the race track leaving the field open to males . In the lowest class only worthless females may be left who are used for gambling at appropriate time rather than used to produce substandard progeny who mat y not find any takers.
But the most interesting point is performance of 3year olds where fillies have a slender lead and that fact must be noted carefully for future. Females mature faster than males – is a universal fact , in animal kingdom, including homo sapiens and the superior winning percentage of a 3 year old filly over 3 year old colt/gelding is a manifestation of that!
Will you buy that?
Many times on several occasions I’ve advocated that a female thoroughbred is as versatile and capable as a male one and tried to prove it by scientific methods (mitochondria et al) and by empirical methods proving that a mare ‘s average winning per year is as good as that of a champion sire in India !
To augment this point I would like to post following facts.
While updating my system I discovered that our notion of male superiority is wrong at least in the case of thoroughbreds! Here is the result of the preliminary findings.
Working on Pune track(monsoon as well as main) foe 1200m the winning percentage of female runners for different class for the period 1990- 2000(10 years) is as follows:
Class I – 25%
classII - 50%
class III - 68%
class IV – 56%
class A - 23%
3 yo only- 51%
Except Class I (top class) and Class A the ‘weaker’ sex wins more races than male thoroughbreds! The low percentage for these classes may be attributed to the fact that hardly any mare 5years+ will be running races in higher class because she is more useful in the breeding shed than on the race track leaving the field open to males . In the lowest class only worthless females may be left who are used for gambling at appropriate time rather than used to produce substandard progeny who mat y not find any takers.
But the most interesting point is performance of 3year olds where fillies have a slender lead and that fact must be noted carefully for future. Females mature faster than males – is a universal fact , in animal kingdom, including homo sapiens and the superior winning percentage of a 3 year old filly over 3 year old colt/gelding is a manifestation of that!
Will you buy that?
10/29/2009
class of a thoroughbred- some opinions
Performance , ratings and Class
Aboline (rating 93) won Bangalore summer Derby beating Jacqueline(90) by short head and many experts went gaga over this feat and exclaimed that class, merit and rating(of official handicapper) is the ultimate end of handicapping. This happened on 12 July 2009. One week later on 19 July 2009 a filly called Conceptual(89) beat Icebreaker (115) – twin classic winner by 7 long lengths- making all of them go motionless, speechless and incommunicado! Another example. Sparks(63) in Hyderabad monsoon Derby beats easily and convincingly many highly rated runners –Davenport(82), Fleet Indian(77), Red Renegade(84) – to name a few.
Handicapping a horse or a horse race is not an easy job, although handicappers are aplenty who sometimes under their name and many times under assumed names post their selections .
But I’m not discussing individuals (homo sapiens) here ,but trying to express my opinion about horse racing and its components . Class is one of the most important attribute (or aspect or factor or parameter ) of a race horse.
What is CLASS? It is the ‘racing ability’ of a thoroughbred to win a race.
Class is subtotal of pedigree (including breeding criterion ) , performance , current condition and some external influences which make a horse win or lose a race. I’ll give just one example of each before closing down this short exposition.
Pedigree: Abs Fabs(Burden of Proof- Sunny Clime) is a stayer ,everyone knows it today because she has won Mysore Derby and Kolkata Derby and placed in many classics . But before winning Mysore Derby she was made to run in some nondescript sprint races and only after she won Mysore Derby experts ‘discovered’ her staying ability and she ran Kolkata Derby as a favorite! Sprint Star is another classic example of this ignorance.
Performance : It is the subtotal of ALL past performances of at least last one or 1 ½ years and not only last 3 or 4 races. Trainers bring down the handicap of their wards by placing in unsuitable distance races till they are confident of winning a race and then place a runner and go ‘for a kill’ when everything is favorable . Innumerable examples can be cited to prove this point. Indian Dancer(Hyderabad-227), Generalissimo(Pune-204) are some recent examples of this trend.
Current condition :Mansoor – an Indian Derby winner after a year or two of his Derby win was made to run as 5 0r 6 year old in Calcutta and was running and losing class A races! Perhaps he lost in Class VB also!
A thoroughbred rarely can maintain his racing fitness for a long time spread over a racing career of 2 or 3 years. Very few trainers can maintain and improve the ‘racing fitness’ of their wards. If a runner is tracking well , comparable to his past work, he/she has every chance to win in ’his class’. Diego Rivera, Rhapsidion Snow, Oasis Star are some examples who confirm this point .Autonomy after losing in Indian Derby as second favorite ran only one race in Pune and ‘gave in’ meekly to Juventus in a 1600m race but ran a mock race in very fast time 13 days before Invitation cup. Antonios , ran 3 long distance races in 2 months prior to Invitation and was a bit jaded in that race and lost it .
Analyse the track of Fleet Indian before Mysore Derby and comparing it with his track before Hyderabad Derby it is clear that he has improved in the intervening period and with a better jockey his chance has improved . He did prove it.
Therefore, class of a thoroughbred can not be assessed by the number(rating) assigned to him/her but a broader view must be taken to identify his/her ‘true class’.
Aboline (rating 93) won Bangalore summer Derby beating Jacqueline(90) by short head and many experts went gaga over this feat and exclaimed that class, merit and rating(of official handicapper) is the ultimate end of handicapping. This happened on 12 July 2009. One week later on 19 July 2009 a filly called Conceptual(89) beat Icebreaker (115) – twin classic winner by 7 long lengths- making all of them go motionless, speechless and incommunicado! Another example. Sparks(63) in Hyderabad monsoon Derby beats easily and convincingly many highly rated runners –Davenport(82), Fleet Indian(77), Red Renegade(84) – to name a few.
Handicapping a horse or a horse race is not an easy job, although handicappers are aplenty who sometimes under their name and many times under assumed names post their selections .
But I’m not discussing individuals (homo sapiens) here ,but trying to express my opinion about horse racing and its components . Class is one of the most important attribute (or aspect or factor or parameter ) of a race horse.
What is CLASS? It is the ‘racing ability’ of a thoroughbred to win a race.
Class is subtotal of pedigree (including breeding criterion ) , performance , current condition and some external influences which make a horse win or lose a race. I’ll give just one example of each before closing down this short exposition.
Pedigree: Abs Fabs(Burden of Proof- Sunny Clime) is a stayer ,everyone knows it today because she has won Mysore Derby and Kolkata Derby and placed in many classics . But before winning Mysore Derby she was made to run in some nondescript sprint races and only after she won Mysore Derby experts ‘discovered’ her staying ability and she ran Kolkata Derby as a favorite! Sprint Star is another classic example of this ignorance.
Performance : It is the subtotal of ALL past performances of at least last one or 1 ½ years and not only last 3 or 4 races. Trainers bring down the handicap of their wards by placing in unsuitable distance races till they are confident of winning a race and then place a runner and go ‘for a kill’ when everything is favorable . Innumerable examples can be cited to prove this point. Indian Dancer(Hyderabad-227), Generalissimo(Pune-204) are some recent examples of this trend.
Current condition :Mansoor – an Indian Derby winner after a year or two of his Derby win was made to run as 5 0r 6 year old in Calcutta and was running and losing class A races! Perhaps he lost in Class VB also!
A thoroughbred rarely can maintain his racing fitness for a long time spread over a racing career of 2 or 3 years. Very few trainers can maintain and improve the ‘racing fitness’ of their wards. If a runner is tracking well , comparable to his past work, he/she has every chance to win in ’his class’. Diego Rivera, Rhapsidion Snow, Oasis Star are some examples who confirm this point .Autonomy after losing in Indian Derby as second favorite ran only one race in Pune and ‘gave in’ meekly to Juventus in a 1600m race but ran a mock race in very fast time 13 days before Invitation cup. Antonios , ran 3 long distance races in 2 months prior to Invitation and was a bit jaded in that race and lost it .
Analyse the track of Fleet Indian before Mysore Derby and comparing it with his track before Hyderabad Derby it is clear that he has improved in the intervening period and with a better jockey his chance has improved . He did prove it.
Therefore, class of a thoroughbred can not be assessed by the number(rating) assigned to him/her but a broader view must be taken to identify his/her ‘true class’.
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