my selections
1)1-9-7
2)(4)-8-3
3)2-1-7
4)(1-4-12)
5)9-8-5
6)(1-7)-6
7)1-2-7
8)7(E)-9-4
9)3(e)-1-8
7/16/2011
7/10/2011
Bangalore summer Derby 2011
I wanted to send my 'stray thoughts and some opinions' to a racing site- Indiarace.com. The site refused to publish it with automated remarks : The form cannot be submitted...The following illegal words were found
(1) mental
I am ,therefore, constrained to put up the same here for perusal and critical comments of readers.
some stray thoughts and some opinions...
A syce is employed by a trainer. A trainer is 'employed' by an owner. An owner is PERMITTED to race his thoroughbreds by a race club and a trainer is licensed by the club to use its FACILITY to run the TBs trained by him and/or owned by him or someone else. The race club to earn money through commission and other legitimate avenues ,normally, provides stabling facility, racing track , basic and special maintenance facilities to thoroughbreds trained/owned by them.
A syce is an employee of a trainer. All dues – old and new, to him must be paid/reimbursed by the trainer or trainer/owner combo. A race club neither has any authority nor sanction to enforce it, but can coerce them by using its laws and bye-laws to ensure that racing goes on smoothly without and hindrance. Most of the race clubs controlled by vested interests , try to avoid taking harsh decisions and allow minor issues to escalate and convert them to WWF. The current crisis is an example of this ostrich like mentality.
The impasse can be resolved with a bit of imaginative modifications of the terms of future races. The PF arrears runs into crores of rupees and many trainers and owners are not in a position to pay it in a lump-sum. Naturally. But they must be able to pay it in installments. A percentage, say, 10 to 15 percent of stake money earned by owner and trainer can be retained by the club and transferred to an account which should pay in installments, a part of the dues, to the syces. Even the entry fee to a race can be increased by the club from 1 percent or 2 percent to 1.2 or 2.2 percent and this additional money can be transferred to that account.
The calculation and the amount of dues ,their disbursement and control may be assigned to an independent component of the club. This will ensure the smooth running of races and may remove/reduce the external, crooked entities of racing from the scene to some extent…
But who will bell the cat?
(1) mental
I am ,therefore, constrained to put up the same here for perusal and critical comments of readers.
some stray thoughts and some opinions...
A syce is employed by a trainer. A trainer is 'employed' by an owner. An owner is PERMITTED to race his thoroughbreds by a race club and a trainer is licensed by the club to use its FACILITY to run the TBs trained by him and/or owned by him or someone else. The race club to earn money through commission and other legitimate avenues ,normally, provides stabling facility, racing track , basic and special maintenance facilities to thoroughbreds trained/owned by them.
A syce is an employee of a trainer. All dues – old and new, to him must be paid/reimbursed by the trainer or trainer/owner combo. A race club neither has any authority nor sanction to enforce it, but can coerce them by using its laws and bye-laws to ensure that racing goes on smoothly without and hindrance. Most of the race clubs controlled by vested interests , try to avoid taking harsh decisions and allow minor issues to escalate and convert them to WWF. The current crisis is an example of this ostrich like mentality.
The impasse can be resolved with a bit of imaginative modifications of the terms of future races. The PF arrears runs into crores of rupees and many trainers and owners are not in a position to pay it in a lump-sum. Naturally. But they must be able to pay it in installments. A percentage, say, 10 to 15 percent of stake money earned by owner and trainer can be retained by the club and transferred to an account which should pay in installments, a part of the dues, to the syces. Even the entry fee to a race can be increased by the club from 1 percent or 2 percent to 1.2 or 2.2 percent and this additional money can be transferred to that account.
The calculation and the amount of dues ,their disbursement and control may be assigned to an independent component of the club. This will ensure the smooth running of races and may remove/reduce the external, crooked entities of racing from the scene to some extent…
But who will bell the cat?
7/04/2011
A New approach to win races
Everyone wants to win races and tries various methods - paper handicapping,paddock handicapping, 'flow of money' etc. Here I'll use paper handicapping only because other two systems can be used only at the racetime.
Predicting winner of selective races(1 or 2 races) and making money is comparativly easier and I've done it in past twice on IR.com (2006& 2007), on TurfParrot (2008) and on this blog(Nov-Dec 2009).
This excercise is an attempt(experiment) to make money from races by betting on ALL races of a day, over a period of time - one month or one season. Obviously, by betting on everyrace it is not possible to win everyday but may be possible over a period. To achieve this I'll use following rules-
1)only the first choice will be selected for betting,
2)day's best and place bet will be in bracket,e.g.,(5)-1-6 or 3-(4-p)-9
3)if 2 or 3 runners are in bracket, both or all will be bet
4)betting unit will be same for all bets-win,place,jodi etc.
5)tax on all bets will be @ 10%
6)odds available at Mumbai ring will be considered.
7)Bangalore(1Jul- 5Aug) and Pune season will be primary targets.
I hope to end the 2 seasons on a winning margin, howsoever, small it may be but do not advise the reader to follow me till the exercise delivers confirmatory positive results. This is basically a test of my handicapping system
Predicting winner of selective races(1 or 2 races) and making money is comparativly easier and I've done it in past twice on IR.com (2006& 2007), on TurfParrot (2008) and on this blog(Nov-Dec 2009).
This excercise is an attempt(experiment) to make money from races by betting on ALL races of a day, over a period of time - one month or one season. Obviously, by betting on everyrace it is not possible to win everyday but may be possible over a period. To achieve this I'll use following rules-
1)only the first choice will be selected for betting,
2)day's best and place bet will be in bracket,e.g.,(5)-1-6 or 3-(4-p)-9
3)if 2 or 3 runners are in bracket, both or all will be bet
4)betting unit will be same for all bets-win,place,jodi etc.
5)tax on all bets will be @ 10%
6)odds available at Mumbai ring will be considered.
7)Bangalore(1Jul- 5Aug) and Pune season will be primary targets.
I hope to end the 2 seasons on a winning margin, howsoever, small it may be but do not advise the reader to follow me till the exercise delivers confirmatory positive results. This is basically a test of my handicapping system
7/03/2011
BANGALORE 3/7/11
MY CHOICE
1)2-3-5
2)6-3-5
3)(5-4)
4)5-11-12
5)(5-8-2)
6)(3-1) -4
7)(6-10)-7
8)11-6-10
9)(7-3-10)
1)2-3-5
2)6-3-5
3)(5-4)
4)5-11-12
5)(5-8-2)
6)(3-1) -4
7)(6-10)-7
8)11-6-10
9)(7-3-10)
7/02/2011
BANGALORE 2/7/11
MY CHOICE FOR THE DAY
1) 11-5-8
2)(3-1-2)
3)11-10-5
4)1-6-8
5)(7-3)-4
6)4-11-1
7)(9-3)-1
8)8-10-9
1) 11-5-8
2)(3-1-2)
3)11-10-5
4)1-6-8
5)(7-3)-4
6)4-11-1
7)(9-3)-1
8)8-10-9
6/29/2011
penetrometer reading and classics
Penetrometer reading and Fillies and Colts classic –a correlation
Penetrometer reading(PNR) gives a clue about the type of ‘going’ on the day and affects the final time of a race used by ‘speed analysts’ and is a pointer to indicate a probable winner when many other parameters are unable to pinpoint a clear winner of a race. The correlation between the time clocked by a runner on a particular day and the PNR value, if correctly done, will provide an exceptionally valuable winner which normal parameters may not be able to provide. This hypothesis is substantially proved by the wins of Lovely Kiss (odds 7/2) and Pronto Pronto(odds 5/1) in Fillies classic and Colts classic recently.
Let us consider the win of Lovely Kiss. On 1st. Day of racing at Bangalore in race no 5 ,she clocked a final time of 1 m 26.1s for 1400m when penetrometer reading(PNR) was 5.1 ;while Black Magic Woman(BMW) in race no 31, clocked 1 m 12.9s when PNR was 3.8. Disregarding the weight carried, the margin of win by each runner , we also find that except Speed Six(race no 30 – 1400m in 1m 26s) no other runner (not even a class I –race no 37) was able to better the final time clocked by Lovely Kiss on the first day of the Bangalore season indicating her superiority over her age group . She won the fillies classic beating the hot favorite BMW and other fillies easily.
In the case of Colts classic , the situation is a bit complicated because Pronto Pronto (PP) has not run on Bangalore track except running a mock race (1400m in 1 m 29s) while his adversary Six Speed (52K) has run an actual race in 1 m 26 s with PNR at 3.8 and Amedeus has run this distance in 1m 29.3s(adjusting for the lost distance). On 5/6/11 , PP clocked 1m 29s for 1400m beating a class I horse (Unleashed -rating 106) while Siachen clocked 13.7 s for a 1200m race and a class II 1600m race was run in 1m 41.7s. A class III race was won in 1m 29.9s by Arrow In Auto Mode on the same day. The PNR was 4.2. Using the times clocked by Siachen( class I ) and class II runner we find that a runner of equal caliber should run 1400m in a final time of about 1m 29.7s . PP has run a mock race on the same day in 1m 29s. Slower pace of a mock race but bettering a class III final time indicated that PP had equal chance as SS if we interpolate these variables in the mock race time of PP.
It is well known that the pace of a mock race is always slower than the actual race because horses are not strained and PP clocking a better time than a class III runner and beating a class I runner was a clear pointer that he is a live contender for the Colts classic and winning at odds of 5/1 he proved it.
After analyzing both the classics I can say that in the next classic , i.e., Bangalore Derby – ‘girls have better chance to win than the boys’.
Penetrometer reading(PNR) gives a clue about the type of ‘going’ on the day and affects the final time of a race used by ‘speed analysts’ and is a pointer to indicate a probable winner when many other parameters are unable to pinpoint a clear winner of a race. The correlation between the time clocked by a runner on a particular day and the PNR value, if correctly done, will provide an exceptionally valuable winner which normal parameters may not be able to provide. This hypothesis is substantially proved by the wins of Lovely Kiss (odds 7/2) and Pronto Pronto(odds 5/1) in Fillies classic and Colts classic recently.
Let us consider the win of Lovely Kiss. On 1st. Day of racing at Bangalore in race no 5 ,she clocked a final time of 1 m 26.1s for 1400m when penetrometer reading(PNR) was 5.1 ;while Black Magic Woman(BMW) in race no 31, clocked 1 m 12.9s when PNR was 3.8. Disregarding the weight carried, the margin of win by each runner , we also find that except Speed Six(race no 30 – 1400m in 1m 26s) no other runner (not even a class I –race no 37) was able to better the final time clocked by Lovely Kiss on the first day of the Bangalore season indicating her superiority over her age group . She won the fillies classic beating the hot favorite BMW and other fillies easily.
In the case of Colts classic , the situation is a bit complicated because Pronto Pronto (PP) has not run on Bangalore track except running a mock race (1400m in 1 m 29s) while his adversary Six Speed (52K) has run an actual race in 1 m 26 s with PNR at 3.8 and Amedeus has run this distance in 1m 29.3s(adjusting for the lost distance). On 5/6/11 , PP clocked 1m 29s for 1400m beating a class I horse (Unleashed -rating 106) while Siachen clocked 13.7 s for a 1200m race and a class II 1600m race was run in 1m 41.7s. A class III race was won in 1m 29.9s by Arrow In Auto Mode on the same day. The PNR was 4.2. Using the times clocked by Siachen( class I ) and class II runner we find that a runner of equal caliber should run 1400m in a final time of about 1m 29.7s . PP has run a mock race on the same day in 1m 29s. Slower pace of a mock race but bettering a class III final time indicated that PP had equal chance as SS if we interpolate these variables in the mock race time of PP.
It is well known that the pace of a mock race is always slower than the actual race because horses are not strained and PP clocking a better time than a class III runner and beating a class I runner was a clear pointer that he is a live contender for the Colts classic and winning at odds of 5/1 he proved it.
After analyzing both the classics I can say that in the next classic , i.e., Bangalore Derby – ‘girls have better chance to win than the boys’.
6/26/2011
BANGALORE 26 JULY 2011
MY CHOICE
1)9-4-1
2)1-5-4
3)(10-6-2)
4)8-5-9
5)(10-6-5)
6) (9)-2(p)-7
7)(7_3)
8)5-8-7
9)(1-8)-7
1)9-4-1
2)1-5-4
3)(10-6-2)
4)8-5-9
5)(10-6-5)
6) (9)-2(p)-7
7)(7_3)
8)5-8-7
9)(1-8)-7
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