Mayfair Girl ,Ivory Snow, Spot On should win and Bernardo is an eachway chance.
for Derby I'm going to place my tenner on Fleet Indian but hedge him with Red Renegade.
10/02/2009
Hyderabad Derby on 2/10/09- some opinions
Fleeting glance at Hyderabad Derby winners:
Only 3 criteria - Pedigree , Class and performance will be considered .
It is sometimes embarrassing to speak out of turn – especially when talking to skeptics and Indian race goers are no exception . Without knowing the entries, handicaps , riders , current form, acceptance to say that ‘X’ runner is better than ‘Y’ runner is risky and I did take that risk -10days before the actual running of Hyderabad Derby.
Some additions to the acceptance made it mandatory to talk about some more of them and -take a ‘fleeting glance’ at some of them . Following is my opinion about them – considering class, pedigree and performance only.
Al Fatha( Steinbeck-Anguilla) has always won as a fluke and failed as a favorite! His sire is maternal grandsire of Set Alight and his dam has won a race upto 2000m and Anguilla’s damsire EverydayII was a known stayer . In race no 116 after loitering in rear he picked up speed and ended 5th. Nothing much to talk about but flukes have never given a chance to talk about them!
Cambiasso(Razeen-Gourgandine) is a disgrace to the pedigree . the sire and dam have produced Allied Forces and Perceived Value – both winners over 2400m+ and this gelding ‘refusing’ to win a single race surprises me . He can not win this race, with this kind of performance.
Davenport(Steinbeck- Congratulations) . The dam has won Indian Oaks(2400m) but has not produced any good runner, though Davenport seems to be the best of her produce till date. With a bit of luck he may win .
Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’desperately’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) and staying 2000m will be no problem for him. But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. The connections may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon ! He is the best of the lot – performance wise , but can he win ? Intention of the connections and the kind of run will prove it.
Leonardo(Tirol- Island Charm) was closing in(Bangalore race no 94) on Sprint Star – shock winner, in Colts Trial at Bangalore and a worthy winner of Mysore 2000 Guinness recently . His performance in Gypsy Magic winning race no 173 was more intriguing –placing 5th. from nowhere! Bustino in his pedigree confirms that he can run upto 2400m- but will he? He is a live threat unless ‘ they’ have some other plans. Let us wait, watch and see.
Red Dragon(Major Impact- Zillion Figlia) has won a 1800m race at Pune but the dam does not encourage the staying abilities of this runner and if he wins I’ll be be most surprised watcher of the race. Then I’ll have to go deep in the pedigree of this runner and come out with a reasonable explanation.
Red Renegade( Placerville- Sky Rocket) won a1600m race start to finish proving his staying ability. His grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced not one but two runners who have won over 2800m confirming that he will have no problem over this distance .
The race is wide open and I’ll short list Fleet Indian ,Leonardo, Red Renegade and Davenport but a fluke can not be ruled out – who may be Al Fatah or Red Dragon
Only 3 criteria - Pedigree , Class and performance will be considered .
It is sometimes embarrassing to speak out of turn – especially when talking to skeptics and Indian race goers are no exception . Without knowing the entries, handicaps , riders , current form, acceptance to say that ‘X’ runner is better than ‘Y’ runner is risky and I did take that risk -10days before the actual running of Hyderabad Derby.
Some additions to the acceptance made it mandatory to talk about some more of them and -take a ‘fleeting glance’ at some of them . Following is my opinion about them – considering class, pedigree and performance only.
Al Fatha( Steinbeck-Anguilla) has always won as a fluke and failed as a favorite! His sire is maternal grandsire of Set Alight and his dam has won a race upto 2000m and Anguilla’s damsire EverydayII was a known stayer . In race no 116 after loitering in rear he picked up speed and ended 5th. Nothing much to talk about but flukes have never given a chance to talk about them!
Cambiasso(Razeen-Gourgandine) is a disgrace to the pedigree . the sire and dam have produced Allied Forces and Perceived Value – both winners over 2400m+ and this gelding ‘refusing’ to win a single race surprises me . He can not win this race, with this kind of performance.
Davenport(Steinbeck- Congratulations) . The dam has won Indian Oaks(2400m) but has not produced any good runner, though Davenport seems to be the best of her produce till date. With a bit of luck he may win .
Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’desperately’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) and staying 2000m will be no problem for him. But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. The connections may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon ! He is the best of the lot – performance wise , but can he win ? Intention of the connections and the kind of run will prove it.
Leonardo(Tirol- Island Charm) was closing in(Bangalore race no 94) on Sprint Star – shock winner, in Colts Trial at Bangalore and a worthy winner of Mysore 2000 Guinness recently . His performance in Gypsy Magic winning race no 173 was more intriguing –placing 5th. from nowhere! Bustino in his pedigree confirms that he can run upto 2400m- but will he? He is a live threat unless ‘ they’ have some other plans. Let us wait, watch and see.
Red Dragon(Major Impact- Zillion Figlia) has won a 1800m race at Pune but the dam does not encourage the staying abilities of this runner and if he wins I’ll be be most surprised watcher of the race. Then I’ll have to go deep in the pedigree of this runner and come out with a reasonable explanation.
Red Renegade( Placerville- Sky Rocket) won a1600m race start to finish proving his staying ability. His grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced not one but two runners who have won over 2800m confirming that he will have no problem over this distance .
The race is wide open and I’ll short list Fleet Indian ,Leonardo, Red Renegade and Davenport but a fluke can not be ruled out – who may be Al Fatah or Red Dragon
10/01/2009
Mysore 1/10.09
in first race Winning Attitude can win if connections are serious otherwise better to play place bet
races no 6,7 and 8 are very competitive and any one can win :
my preference and not selection is :
race no 6 : 4-1-2-3
race no 7: 2-1-9-3
race no 8: 1-11-6-4
races no 6,7 and 8 are very competitive and any one can win :
my preference and not selection is :
race no 6 : 4-1-2-3
race no 7: 2-1-9-3
race no 8: 1-11-6-4
9/28/2009
hyderabad 28/09/09
Arabian Dancer and Vijayrath should win their respective races , if on job.
note the flow of money and decide.
note the flow of money and decide.
9/27/2009
Pune- Hyderabad 27/09/09
Pune races
following should win
Thanda, Sea Queen and River Star.
Hyderabad- Chesapeake has a good chance to win - jockey is the question.
following should win
Thanda, Sea Queen and River Star.
Hyderabad- Chesapeake has a good chance to win - jockey is the question.
9/25/2009
some classic aspirants - a short commentary
Some 3 year olds and their chances to win classics…
This year‘s crop of 3y olds has a fair mix of ‘foreign-conceived’ and India bred well performed runners and unlike last few years there is no clear outstanding 3yo in the list of future competitors except Jacqueline who is certainly the best performed than all others. Whether she will be able to retain her position during winter classics, only time will tell. He (the time) is certainly a great leveller – though homo-sapiens unknowingly do help him .
Some of the 3 year old who are likely to perform well in coming months are listed below( in random order) :
Jacqueline , Versaki, Aboline, Gypsy Magic,confiserie, Sea Ruler, Sprint Star ,Red Renegade, Red Dragon, Messalina, Cabriolet, Mystic Quest, Classerville, Fleet Indian, Al Fatah, Spot On and few more , I’ve not been able to recollect.at this moment.
Jacqueline, Aboline, Gypsy Magic, Sprint Star, Classerville have been discussed on this blog on 9 Jul 09 and will be reviewed only if they accept to run in future classics run in October or winter.
I’ll post a summarized view on rest of the runners.
In my opinion, 3 most important variables (parameters) to win a classic race are : a)past performance , b) current form c) pedigree . To reach a conclusion I need detais of all the 3 variables . Performance and pedigree details are available but the ‘current form ‘can be assessed only few days before the run . Therefore, the opinion expressed below must be correlated with the current track of the runner before arriving at a decision.
Versaki :
Versaki(Verglas- Ghassak) is sired by a sprinter (Versaki) out of a stayer(Ghassak) – an universally accepted formula and he has won all his races tilldate including the last race of 1800m.
Verglas is a reasonably good sire and his main attribute – speed complements the staying ability of Ghassak who is sired by Persian Bold whose ability to tranmit his traits are proven by his progeny. Highest Honour – sire of Verglas is a miler, a middle distance specialist.(winner of 1600 and 1800m –grade I race) .
Ghassak(Persian Bold-Anjuli) has Roman Dodage(6-2-2-4-0) indicating clearly that she is more comfortable at route races and did win a 2200m race and produced winners over 2000m and 2400m .Breeding is not an exact science but analogy and produce history reinforces the belief that Versaki can easily stay 2000m. Ghassak – dam of Versaki, an ‘old matron’ came to India at the ripe old age of 14 yrs and Versaki is her 8th foal – born in India. Her(Ghassak's) damsire , Northfields is a winner of 2 US regional Derbies which should add few points to Versaki. He should be a live contender for races upto 2000m. If his current form , at the time of run, matches the competitors he should win therace.
Confiserie :
I was impressed by Confiserie(Placerville- Sprungli) win on 20/9/09 at Pune. Clocking 1m 51.1s
For 1800m , which is 1.5 second better than Yana’s on the same day!
She had nondescript runs earlier- following the footsteps of her dam ,but this daughter of Sprungli can definitely match strides with other 3y olds and should beat them if tried seriously. Placerville is a wellknown sire - sire of innumerable classic winners but Sprungli has run and won several races in classI including few graded races reaching a handicap rating of 122 which brackets her in top 10% of her contemporaries!.She placed 3rd. in Indian Derby and her maternal grandsire – Treasure Leaf was a potent source of stamina . Her Derby run was a classic example of how races are run and won in India. Psychic Flame (odds-9/2 ?)- the eventual winner (a Calcutta Derby winner) was 6/7th at bend and Sprungli (10?1) ridden by PS Chauhan ( he has ridden her in most of the races) was 11/12th at the bend . On entering straight Chauhan let her go and she covered ground beating all but two - the winner and the runnerup and ended only 1 length behind the Derby winner !
She also had the bad(?) habit of trying to win only when the odds were decent - 5/1 or 6/1 or more ! Her pet distance was 1800/2000m but she could have won if tried seriously over 2400m. Anyway, ignoring the imponderables , one fact comes out clearly and that is - she was a stayer and could have done better.
I'm not going to write a thesis and will stop here to point out that Confiserie is the FIRST foal of Sprungli and her performance will decide whether SPRUNGLI will be a multimillion rupees dam or an ordinary mare . Many breeders believe that only first few produce of a mare perform well and that is the reason 90% of imported mares in India are 9 or 10 year old! Finally I must say that after Jacqueline and Versaki I rate Confiserie as the third best western India challenger and if prepared suitably and earnestly she will be a live threat to these ‘imported’ Indians!
(to be continued…)
This year‘s crop of 3y olds has a fair mix of ‘foreign-conceived’ and India bred well performed runners and unlike last few years there is no clear outstanding 3yo in the list of future competitors except Jacqueline who is certainly the best performed than all others. Whether she will be able to retain her position during winter classics, only time will tell. He (the time) is certainly a great leveller – though homo-sapiens unknowingly do help him .
Some of the 3 year old who are likely to perform well in coming months are listed below( in random order) :
Jacqueline , Versaki, Aboline, Gypsy Magic,confiserie, Sea Ruler, Sprint Star ,Red Renegade, Red Dragon, Messalina, Cabriolet, Mystic Quest, Classerville, Fleet Indian, Al Fatah, Spot On and few more , I’ve not been able to recollect.at this moment.
Jacqueline, Aboline, Gypsy Magic, Sprint Star, Classerville have been discussed on this blog on 9 Jul 09 and will be reviewed only if they accept to run in future classics run in October or winter.
I’ll post a summarized view on rest of the runners.
In my opinion, 3 most important variables (parameters) to win a classic race are : a)past performance , b) current form c) pedigree . To reach a conclusion I need detais of all the 3 variables . Performance and pedigree details are available but the ‘current form ‘can be assessed only few days before the run . Therefore, the opinion expressed below must be correlated with the current track of the runner before arriving at a decision.
Versaki :
Versaki(Verglas- Ghassak) is sired by a sprinter (Versaki) out of a stayer(Ghassak) – an universally accepted formula and he has won all his races tilldate including the last race of 1800m.
Verglas is a reasonably good sire and his main attribute – speed complements the staying ability of Ghassak who is sired by Persian Bold whose ability to tranmit his traits are proven by his progeny. Highest Honour – sire of Verglas is a miler, a middle distance specialist.(winner of 1600 and 1800m –grade I race) .
Ghassak(Persian Bold-Anjuli) has Roman Dodage(6-2-2-4-0) indicating clearly that she is more comfortable at route races and did win a 2200m race and produced winners over 2000m and 2400m .Breeding is not an exact science but analogy and produce history reinforces the belief that Versaki can easily stay 2000m. Ghassak – dam of Versaki, an ‘old matron’ came to India at the ripe old age of 14 yrs and Versaki is her 8th foal – born in India. Her(Ghassak's) damsire , Northfields is a winner of 2 US regional Derbies which should add few points to Versaki. He should be a live contender for races upto 2000m. If his current form , at the time of run, matches the competitors he should win therace.
Confiserie :
I was impressed by Confiserie(Placerville- Sprungli) win on 20/9/09 at Pune. Clocking 1m 51.1s
For 1800m , which is 1.5 second better than Yana’s on the same day!
She had nondescript runs earlier- following the footsteps of her dam ,but this daughter of Sprungli can definitely match strides with other 3y olds and should beat them if tried seriously. Placerville is a wellknown sire - sire of innumerable classic winners but Sprungli has run and won several races in classI including few graded races reaching a handicap rating of 122 which brackets her in top 10% of her contemporaries!.She placed 3rd. in Indian Derby and her maternal grandsire – Treasure Leaf was a potent source of stamina . Her Derby run was a classic example of how races are run and won in India. Psychic Flame (odds-9/2 ?)- the eventual winner (a Calcutta Derby winner) was 6/7th at bend and Sprungli (10?1) ridden by PS Chauhan ( he has ridden her in most of the races) was 11/12th at the bend . On entering straight Chauhan let her go and she covered ground beating all but two - the winner and the runnerup and ended only 1 length behind the Derby winner !
She also had the bad(?) habit of trying to win only when the odds were decent - 5/1 or 6/1 or more ! Her pet distance was 1800/2000m but she could have won if tried seriously over 2400m. Anyway, ignoring the imponderables , one fact comes out clearly and that is - she was a stayer and could have done better.
I'm not going to write a thesis and will stop here to point out that Confiserie is the FIRST foal of Sprungli and her performance will decide whether SPRUNGLI will be a multimillion rupees dam or an ordinary mare . Many breeders believe that only first few produce of a mare perform well and that is the reason 90% of imported mares in India are 9 or 10 year old! Finally I must say that after Jacqueline and Versaki I rate Confiserie as the third best western India challenger and if prepared suitably and earnestly she will be a live threat to these ‘imported’ Indians!
(to be continued…)
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