I wanted to start with a non-controversial subject but finding none I'll start with the defeat of Becket in the Maharaja's Cup.
Becket(60kg) was beaten by Arabian Prince(56k)and Onassis(54k)in this Terms race by neck and 1 1/4lengths(nk=1/4l).Many racegoers- including punters,blamed the jockey,the trainer and questioned the capability of the winner. I'll try to explain the loss/win using the ageold classic theories and priciples - none of them mine.
Out of several hundred races run at a racing center in a season ,some of them have an 'aura' or prestige attached to them like, Derby,1000G, 2000G and few more.Every participant(horse(!),owner,trainer,jockey) wants to win these races.this cup falls in this category.
Becket beat Onassis in Indian Derby by 5 lengths at level weight(57k) and in Invitation he beat Arabian Prince by 7 1/2 lengths,again at level weight(57k).
As per the age-old classical theories in races run over 2000m - one length= 1/2kg. and accepting the fact that in Indian Derby and Invitation cup EVERY runner is on job we can say that Becket is 2 1/2kg better than Onassis and 3 1/2 kg. better than Arabian Prince.
The weights allotted to these 2 runners gave them advantage over Becket and they proved it.
I'm not using the pedigree superiority of these runners over Becket at this moment.
These aberrations will recur in future again and again and a punter must be aware of it and safeguard his interest by taking into consideration various factors and parameters of racing.
7/05/2010
resuming and activating the blog
I regret that due to serious sickness of a close family member I was not able to keep my blog alive and was uncommunicative for more than two months.Things are now under control and I hope to revive the blog for my readers.
chanakya
chanakya
4/10/2010
4/06/2010
a brief on current Classic winners and runners
Jacqueline, Becket, Change of Luck( Gypsy Magic) , Native Knight et al…
The Indian Classic racing scene during current winter season was dominated by above four runners and no serious race-goers looked beyond them .
Most of the readers , not all (perhaps), will agree that these 4 thoroughbreds were/are the best of the crop of 2006. Who is better than whom , at present, may not be conclusively assessed as lot of heat has been generated by interested as well as ignorant followers of these thoroughbreds(TBs) in various columns and forums.
I’ll try to confine this article ,primarily , to the published facts , then opine on them and in final paragraph will try to summarize my viewpoint.
Jacqueline (King Charlemagne- Talita Kumi)(odds -12/1) won her first race from 10th position at bend . She always was ‘come from behind’ type and ran in the rear – whether lost or won her race, except Invitation Cup race , where she was always in the first 3 runners. Here I’ll consider only the races she lost rather than the one which she won ! Her second race was Poonawalla Multimillion where she(12/1) came from 10th. position at bend and placed 3rd. a neck behind Gypsy Magic(Change of Luck-now) who was also at odds of 12/1 and was 14th. Or 15th. at bend, then drifted badly on entering straight- towards outer rails, losing many lengths and finally the race was won by late Versaki (Even) – the favorite beating Gypsy Magic and Jacqueline. In her next outing she beat Gypsy Magic(Change of Luck) – the favorite again ‘coming from behind’(10th.position) Her second loss after PBMM she was in Bangalore summer Derby and she and lost by short-head to Aboline – coming from 10th. Position(her favorite position?!!) but she beat Gypsy Magic by 7 lengths in this race . she won several races at Pune and Mumbai including 1000Guineas, 2000Guineas ,Indian Oaks and Indian Derby(by 3/4length) beating Becket in a hard fought duel .She lost to Becket , her final race – Indian Invitation Cup - by head , by running against her norm – joining the front bunch at an very early stage .
Becket(Hawk Wing – Boiling River) had won Bangalore Derby by beating You Are So Beautiful by 4 lengths and though You are So Beautiful had beaten a late finishing Change of Luck(Gypsy Magic) but the race was 1600m 1000 Guineas. Becket came down to Mumbai to challenge Jacqueline in Indian Derby and was beaten(3/4 length) by her convincingly. She was beaten by him in the last stride by head in Invitation cup. He lost Indian St. Leger to Change of Luck only by short-head.
Change of Luck – last progeny of Stunning, who may carry her legacy and definitely her genes , had been an enigmatic disappointment till she won the Leger. I must categorically state at this point that I consider Stunning the ‘best’ broodmare of last 20 years. Almost close to one hundred posts/comments have been published how and why Becket lost the race and Change Of Luck has won but unfortunately no one has bothered to analyse the reasons for the loss or the win of these 2 runners .The genetic aggressiveness of Becket may be his undoing ,while the ‘closing’ and incremental improvement during race – a trait visible in the progeny of Stunning must have helped Change of Luck. Secondly, the ‘staying’ ability of Stunning’s offspring will always be better than many Indigenous and imported breeds.
Native Knight(NK) is a real joker of the pack ! He fits in everywhere. Before winter classics I made a remark that given an opportunity he can win a regional classic. He didn’t try. The connections were/are wiser! Still a maiden he has won more than Rs. 60 lakhs for his connections – much more than a monkey(Green Monkey – bought for $ 16 million) who could not win a race in USA and is a stallion(!!!) there. Why didn’t they sell him( a gelding) to Poonawalla is a mystery.
To be honest to him I must confess that he was the ‘best moving runner ‘ in Indian St. Leger and if he can retain the ‘condition’ and tries (very unlikely) to run Bangalore St. Leger may add a classic to his name!
I’ve already discussed their pedigree in detail, which may bring Change of Luck very close – almost at par with Jacqueline but racing performance – the acid test of a thoroughbred , clearly puts Jacqueline ahead of them with the rider – the longer she (change of Luck) goes , the better she goes…
The Indian Classic racing scene during current winter season was dominated by above four runners and no serious race-goers looked beyond them .
Most of the readers , not all (perhaps), will agree that these 4 thoroughbreds were/are the best of the crop of 2006. Who is better than whom , at present, may not be conclusively assessed as lot of heat has been generated by interested as well as ignorant followers of these thoroughbreds(TBs) in various columns and forums.
I’ll try to confine this article ,primarily , to the published facts , then opine on them and in final paragraph will try to summarize my viewpoint.
Jacqueline (King Charlemagne- Talita Kumi)(odds -12/1) won her first race from 10th position at bend . She always was ‘come from behind’ type and ran in the rear – whether lost or won her race, except Invitation Cup race , where she was always in the first 3 runners. Here I’ll consider only the races she lost rather than the one which she won ! Her second race was Poonawalla Multimillion where she(12/1) came from 10th. position at bend and placed 3rd. a neck behind Gypsy Magic(Change of Luck-now) who was also at odds of 12/1 and was 14th. Or 15th. at bend, then drifted badly on entering straight- towards outer rails, losing many lengths and finally the race was won by late Versaki (Even) – the favorite beating Gypsy Magic and Jacqueline. In her next outing she beat Gypsy Magic(Change of Luck) – the favorite again ‘coming from behind’(10th.position) Her second loss after PBMM she was in Bangalore summer Derby and she and lost by short-head to Aboline – coming from 10th. Position(her favorite position?!!) but she beat Gypsy Magic by 7 lengths in this race . she won several races at Pune and Mumbai including 1000Guineas, 2000Guineas ,Indian Oaks and Indian Derby(by 3/4length) beating Becket in a hard fought duel .She lost to Becket , her final race – Indian Invitation Cup - by head , by running against her norm – joining the front bunch at an very early stage .
Becket(Hawk Wing – Boiling River) had won Bangalore Derby by beating You Are So Beautiful by 4 lengths and though You are So Beautiful had beaten a late finishing Change of Luck(Gypsy Magic) but the race was 1600m 1000 Guineas. Becket came down to Mumbai to challenge Jacqueline in Indian Derby and was beaten(3/4 length) by her convincingly. She was beaten by him in the last stride by head in Invitation cup. He lost Indian St. Leger to Change of Luck only by short-head.
Change of Luck – last progeny of Stunning, who may carry her legacy and definitely her genes , had been an enigmatic disappointment till she won the Leger. I must categorically state at this point that I consider Stunning the ‘best’ broodmare of last 20 years. Almost close to one hundred posts/comments have been published how and why Becket lost the race and Change Of Luck has won but unfortunately no one has bothered to analyse the reasons for the loss or the win of these 2 runners .The genetic aggressiveness of Becket may be his undoing ,while the ‘closing’ and incremental improvement during race – a trait visible in the progeny of Stunning must have helped Change of Luck. Secondly, the ‘staying’ ability of Stunning’s offspring will always be better than many Indigenous and imported breeds.
Native Knight(NK) is a real joker of the pack ! He fits in everywhere. Before winter classics I made a remark that given an opportunity he can win a regional classic. He didn’t try. The connections were/are wiser! Still a maiden he has won more than Rs. 60 lakhs for his connections – much more than a monkey(Green Monkey – bought for $ 16 million) who could not win a race in USA and is a stallion(!!!) there. Why didn’t they sell him( a gelding) to Poonawalla is a mystery.
To be honest to him I must confess that he was the ‘best moving runner ‘ in Indian St. Leger and if he can retain the ‘condition’ and tries (very unlikely) to run Bangalore St. Leger may add a classic to his name!
I’ve already discussed their pedigree in detail, which may bring Change of Luck very close – almost at par with Jacqueline but racing performance – the acid test of a thoroughbred , clearly puts Jacqueline ahead of them with the rider – the longer she (change of Luck) goes , the better she goes…
4/04/2010
4/03/2010
3/31/2010
Jacqueline - an Indian champion
Jacqueline- the champion…
Vijay Mallya - few moments before Indian Derby -2010 was run , made a poignant remark during pre-race interview ‘… after Set Alight experience, I have stopped predicting…may the best horse win’.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Jacqueline, of course the best runner on that day, won the race!
This is what I wrote about Becket ,before Indian Derby, at handicap stage, on 2 Feb 10
He is the only threat to Jacqueline and can beat her ,if the ‘luck of the race’ goes against her. If he has better ‘current form’ his chances may improve further, but if Jacqueline’s form is better she may continue her winning streak…
A slightly modified version of my article was sent to Racingpulse.com and was published a day before the Derby was run.
I closed that article with the final observation :
Finally ,based on pedigree analysis and past performance the Indian Derby -2010 must be won by Jacqueline but Becket is also a strong contender.
But if fluke has to win –then Native Knight, Onassis and Bruckner will have a chance
Jacqueline won Indian Derby beating Becket by ¾ lengths followed by Native Knight and Onassis…
After few days in a ‘post race’ analysis I wrote BEFORE the Invitation race was run:
What do we learn from this( Indian Derby) run of Jacqueline and Becket?
1)Becket would have given a better account of himself if allowed to give his all after 400/450m.
2)Becket or Jacqueline were not very hard ridden and have 5 to 10% chance to improve on this performance.
3)Invitation cup will be confined to these 2 runners only-unless ‘doosra’ pops up
4)Becket has a slightly more chance to show improvement than Jacqueline
5)Jacqueline has not reached her peak performance
6)Invitation cup will be more interesting than the Indian Derby
7)Jacqueline can win Indian St. Leger.
Indian Invitation Cup was run and won by Becket beating Jacqueline by head.
Both had recovered well after their grueling fight in Indian Derby. But the improvement in Becket was a bit more than Jacqueline. Final track on 28 Feb10 confirms this.
After the Invitation Cup, it was said that Jacqueline had ‘swollen’ joints and is being retired . Well ,the connections should always have the final say and their decision though hasty , was accepted by one and all.
Now comes the Indian St. Leger – the final test of stamina and endurance for a thoroughbred . It was won by Change of Luck( late Gypsy Magic) by a short head from Becket. It was funny to observe that while a 7 or 8 year old carries his old name (in bracket) – Change of Luck refuses to do so!!!
Almost close to 100 , remarks, opinions, observations have been posted about the win of Change of Luck or the defeat of Becket – but none has bothered to analyse the race properly and even the ‘experts’ have not brought out the race result in the correct perspective. Why should they? Un-appreciative readers, bookies lackeys who do not want a punter to learn from mistakes makes the post-race analysis a futile exercise and eventually helps the crooks to hold sway over gullible punters – who lose regularly.
But the heading of my article was – Jacqueline – the champion! I must , therefore, write few words about her.
Jacqueline has run, perhaps ,10 to 12 races and lost 3 of them before being retired. She had always won a race – whether it was a 1200m sprint or a 2400m Derby, off the pace, coming from behind but in Invitation she was kept ‘well up the pace’ in 3rd. or 2nd. position while Becket was loitering in the rear till 600m. In Derby Becket made the first move and Jacqueline came after him ,while in Invitation Jacqueline made the first move and Becket came after her . To a layman, it will look that the late mover normally, wins the race because Change of Luck also won the same way beating Becket in the Indian St. Leger. But this is not true , always. All our paid analyst, experts and opinion makers fail regularly because they avoid to provide post-race analysis. They do provide the running of the race .
Let me come back to Jacqueline again. Before 1000 Guineas was run I made a remark in this blog that Jacqueline can win Indian Triple Crown. After she won Derby my conviction was strengthened and though she lost Invitation with different tactics, alien to her temperament, I still thought that she will accept to run the Leger . She did not. The result of St. Leger – indirectly, though not conclusively, proves that she is the best 4 year old Indian thoroughbred and hence can be termed a champion.
Vijay Mallya - few moments before Indian Derby -2010 was run , made a poignant remark during pre-race interview ‘… after Set Alight experience, I have stopped predicting…may the best horse win’.
………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Jacqueline, of course the best runner on that day, won the race!
This is what I wrote about Becket ,before Indian Derby, at handicap stage, on 2 Feb 10
He is the only threat to Jacqueline and can beat her ,if the ‘luck of the race’ goes against her. If he has better ‘current form’ his chances may improve further, but if Jacqueline’s form is better she may continue her winning streak…
A slightly modified version of my article was sent to Racingpulse.com and was published a day before the Derby was run.
I closed that article with the final observation :
Finally ,based on pedigree analysis and past performance the Indian Derby -2010 must be won by Jacqueline but Becket is also a strong contender.
But if fluke has to win –then Native Knight, Onassis and Bruckner will have a chance
Jacqueline won Indian Derby beating Becket by ¾ lengths followed by Native Knight and Onassis…
After few days in a ‘post race’ analysis I wrote BEFORE the Invitation race was run:
What do we learn from this( Indian Derby) run of Jacqueline and Becket?
1)Becket would have given a better account of himself if allowed to give his all after 400/450m.
2)Becket or Jacqueline were not very hard ridden and have 5 to 10% chance to improve on this performance.
3)Invitation cup will be confined to these 2 runners only-unless ‘doosra’ pops up
4)Becket has a slightly more chance to show improvement than Jacqueline
5)Jacqueline has not reached her peak performance
6)Invitation cup will be more interesting than the Indian Derby
7)Jacqueline can win Indian St. Leger.
Indian Invitation Cup was run and won by Becket beating Jacqueline by head.
Both had recovered well after their grueling fight in Indian Derby. But the improvement in Becket was a bit more than Jacqueline. Final track on 28 Feb10 confirms this.
After the Invitation Cup, it was said that Jacqueline had ‘swollen’ joints and is being retired . Well ,the connections should always have the final say and their decision though hasty , was accepted by one and all.
Now comes the Indian St. Leger – the final test of stamina and endurance for a thoroughbred . It was won by Change of Luck( late Gypsy Magic) by a short head from Becket. It was funny to observe that while a 7 or 8 year old carries his old name (in bracket) – Change of Luck refuses to do so!!!
Almost close to 100 , remarks, opinions, observations have been posted about the win of Change of Luck or the defeat of Becket – but none has bothered to analyse the race properly and even the ‘experts’ have not brought out the race result in the correct perspective. Why should they? Un-appreciative readers, bookies lackeys who do not want a punter to learn from mistakes makes the post-race analysis a futile exercise and eventually helps the crooks to hold sway over gullible punters – who lose regularly.
But the heading of my article was – Jacqueline – the champion! I must , therefore, write few words about her.
Jacqueline has run, perhaps ,10 to 12 races and lost 3 of them before being retired. She had always won a race – whether it was a 1200m sprint or a 2400m Derby, off the pace, coming from behind but in Invitation she was kept ‘well up the pace’ in 3rd. or 2nd. position while Becket was loitering in the rear till 600m. In Derby Becket made the first move and Jacqueline came after him ,while in Invitation Jacqueline made the first move and Becket came after her . To a layman, it will look that the late mover normally, wins the race because Change of Luck also won the same way beating Becket in the Indian St. Leger. But this is not true , always. All our paid analyst, experts and opinion makers fail regularly because they avoid to provide post-race analysis. They do provide the running of the race .
Let me come back to Jacqueline again. Before 1000 Guineas was run I made a remark in this blog that Jacqueline can win Indian Triple Crown. After she won Derby my conviction was strengthened and though she lost Invitation with different tactics, alien to her temperament, I still thought that she will accept to run the Leger . She did not. The result of St. Leger – indirectly, though not conclusively, proves that she is the best 4 year old Indian thoroughbred and hence can be termed a champion.
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