I do not write to please anybody but for 'swanth sukhoy' as they call it in sanskrit!
Long ago when I discovered-courtesy of one of my deceased friend, that I can express my views and opinions on the net I started writing on IR.com- only site available at that time, and must have written few hundred articles and perhaps more than 1000 responses. Free ,of course. Some of the articles were worth a research paper value. But in horse racing they don’t get that status- for obvious reasons.
After the departure of ‘old guards’ , I felt I’m unwanted by the new ‘guards’ and therefore , started this blog. I didn’t invite nor requested anybody to promote it .
I love horseracing and therefore, write about it . You may accept or reject what I say or write ,but if you respond –I expect you to be logical and sincere .
This is what I received from an anonymous writer :
Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "Indian racing scenario and some opinions":
Arre(expletive removed) ke,
racing tips de do, lecture nahin.
Kisko chahiye tera lecture?
Stupid kahinke
Publish this comment.
Reject this comment.
Moderate comments for this blog.
Posted by Anonymous to chanakya-on-racing at July 25, 2009 10:26 PM
Now , what should I say or write? Ignore it ,be more sarcastic or start to prove myself.
No I’ll will do none of above.
I’ve offered my tips for several years in IHRB and for a month on Turfparrot inApril 2008 because IR.com was out of action. A review on these is still available on IR.com under the heading ‘if a butterfly flaps her wings in Brazil….’ 9 out of 11 tips were correct – check it with the databank of –now defunct Turf parrot or with IHRB archives. What does it prove ? Nothing ,in fact, because you are as good as your last tip !
The final answer to this anonymous is – why should anybody(or a tipster) feed these freeloaders ?
Do I have an obligation- moral, legal, humanitarian or otherwise… I don't think so.
if somebody does not like what I say or write he can skip this blog or my writeups elsewhere...
But beggers can't be choosers and demand what they want...
A logical, reasoned out – may be outrageous reply will be appreciated and published…
7/27/2009
7/21/2009
Indian racing scenario and some opinions
Present day horseracing has degenerated from the ‘king of sports’ or ‘sport of kings’ to a game of gambling, though most of old fashioned race-goers refuse to admit this transition. When thoroughbred racing started in real earnest in 19th century beginning, winning a race, which used to be 2 to 4 miles long( sometimes run in the form of ‘heats’) and not the value of the stakes, was the norm of the day. In 20th century the importance slowly shifted to stakes money and in the later half of the century a punter ( who was a non-entity at the beginning and still is) gained acceptance (not recognition) as a necessary evil – to be tolerated and seen – but not heard by the racing administrators. These punters –called commoner during kings and queens reign, are now known as public or a punter- a misnomer for a gambler! The lure of easy money has also created another professional called a tipster along-with a trainer , jockey, vet and other qualified professionals who may not like to be grouped with a tipster.
But the truth is, sometimes stranger than fiction! .Today all these professionals can not exist for long in the absence of this man(or these men) called- tipster(s).
These men(ignoring hi-fi computer savy experts) ,many of them have very limited facility available, try to predict the winner of a race (few crore rupees are lost or won or change hands in every race)- sometimes for a fee and most of the times for a pittance called – salary, compensation, commission.
Trainers go on strike, jockeys go on strike ,even syces casual workers strike whenever they want and owners also can withdraw their horses from racing but two racing aficionados – called punters and tipsters do not , rather dare not and thus are reduced to a group called ‘necessary evil’.
Let us consider a situation. We know there are 4 to 5 thousand diehard punters in Mumbai-Pune, same number in Bangalore- Mysore circuit and about 3000+ in Hyderabad and same number in Kolkata , Delhi, Ooty,Chennai combined , adding up to a number close to 15,000 . Come what may , these chronic(pardon my lingo) aficionados will go to a racecourse to bet or sometimes watch the races . some of them bet in ‘petis’ or ‘half’ or ‘quarter’ but most of them bet in tenners or hundreds. These tenner-betters called public, commoner ,gambler are the backbone of Indian racing, at present . Remove them from the racing scene, these racing clubs –in India ,will collapse !
Why these penny punters(in England) or tenner-punter (in India) come to racecourse. In the hope of making money, obviously! They buy a racebook costing Rs.10/- or a racing-sheet(Rs.5) or even a newspaper(Re.1).
Selections given by these experts forces them, if they follow them, to put their money on a runner who may win or lose. Most of the time , they lose because they can’t study seriously the past performance, pedigree, form, and other parameters of the race because they have no time for these finesse.
All of them (penny punter and ‘peti’ punter) blame the tipster who with limited resources, knowledge and info provides/offers his opinion which may be correct but more often is wrong because allover the world the percentage of public choice(fav) is not more than 30 percent.
Why is it so?
Because homo sapiens (called human beings) have a genetic trait to take calculated risk, face dangers- after ascertaining the chance of coming out of it unscathed and this trait has given them an ability of logical reasoning ,rationalizing and of course an ability of ‘deception’. This ability of deception is manifested by giving a track in the dead of night(mid 20th. century), in and out running, using incorrect equipment etc. The list is endless.
Before we delve deep in this rigmarole of excuses put forward by one or all for losing their hard earned money or the deception perfected by many professionals let us have a look at the perception of a punter/race-goer- including professionals on the performance of the ‘scapegoats’ – the tipsters in the Indian racing scenario. Out of 10,000 hardcore punters allover India ,some have access to internet and those persons surf various websites and blogs to ‘read or see’ what is new on their site/blog. I also visit these blogs and sites too. Shyam/Swamy/Golmaster have an average of 400 visitors and Prakash Gosavi says that his blog has been visited by more than 600 persons very recently. I‘ve no data about websites though the owner of one website has told me that on a race day 2000 to 3000 persons visit his site. Being pessimist we can say that at least 1000 persons try to find out the opinion/tips of some persons they think know better than them. If they (visitors/punters/opinion-makers etc.) succeed they try to take credit for their intelligent(borrowed?) selections and if they fail then of-course these few punching bags( called tipsters) are always available to share and accept the blame without a murmur.
If they dare to complain they are shouted down , ridiculed and insulted. Inspite of that these opportunists still visit these websites/blogs regularly for the free info and tips .
Why? They have no option. Punters and tipsters have a love-hate relationship, which changes race to race and race day to race day. A casual tipster may survive on his own by betting on his fancy –once in a while, but if they stop offering tips- what a punter will do? Imagine if all the race books give all other info except tips newspapers/sites/blogs stop giving free selections what these peti-punters or race clubs will do in the absence of penny punter?
Gamblers will switch over to another form of gambling and breeders will sell their produce to buggy-owners! Open spaces of race clubs will be used by joggers and real sports persons( boys and girls) than pseudo-sportsmen! If our politiciansand builders lobby permit that to happen!
But we are discussing punter –tipster relationship or dependence. Historically punters came first and tipsters came later in this game . An average punter has resources ( money, risk taking ability, backup) but insufficient knowledge of the game while a tipster has knowledge( acquired, borrowed, spurious, fake) and both need each other for sustenance in racing.
While resource can be unlimited ,knowledge has a boundary , a limit due to inadequacy of the provider. In the context of a horse race this inadequacy becomes unforgivable though in any other commercial activity loss and profit are accepted without any complaint. In a business activity a net profit of 15 to 25 % after a year is gladly accepted but in racing activity after 3 hrs a return of 20 to 30% is considered inadequate. This brings us to a remark by an Indian breeder who said ‘pay peanuts you get monkeys’. If this person ( he/she) can say this to another who has paid few lacs to buy a thoroughbred why can’t a tipster(who receives few tenners or few hundreds) be allowed to use the same words. In a study carried by me in 2004 when a cash prize of Rs. 100,000/- was offered by RWITC during Pune season I had proved( available in another article) that the performance of tipsters had improved appreciably – though only one of them could win that prize.
This brings us to Bangalore summer Derby where most of the punters lost and most of the tipsters failed. I’m not going to single out any group – punter/tipster/owner/trainer/jockey for a blameworthy/praiseworthy performance but will try to bring out some facts and data overlooked , ignored by many.
Let us start with some harsh, real, economic facts.
Economy first: an owner buys a horse , hands over to a trainer and expects a decent return on his investment. A trainer tries to win (or return) as much as is possible to retain the goodwill and the future retainer ship by the owner and a jockey(retained or hired) tries to help them. This is an ideal situation .One out of 100 thoroughbred only performs well, rather do perform true to ‘form’ and brings laurels to all connected with him. Not all- they show variable performance pattern. This brings us to dubious, deceptive, false runs of a horse which are noted down by professionals ,including tipsters, and a consensual opinion is generated about a runner’s future prospects- which can be deceptively wrong.
Let us examine all the points made and above observations in the context of recent Bangalore summer Derby.
18 horses, biggest field ever for Bangalore Derby, faces the starter. Aboline from draw no 18 –farthest draw took over lead at 1950m belying the age old theory of unfavorable draw and won start to finish on a slowly rising track – contradicting another theory that a horse can not win a route (>2000m) race start to finish in a competitive field.
But did he really destroy the age old beliefs held by some. Perhaps, no! why do I say that ?
I said it before the race was run , that his dam Super Fan has run 43 times –a record for an US runner ( they run maximum only 7-10 times before retirement) proving durability, strength in the bloodline and her winning distance gave him a mitochondrial advantage to run over longer distances.
How did he beat Jacqueline – trip handicappers will explain in detail why did she lose by short head as I’m not doing post race analysis here !
Why was he missed by almost ‘all’ the tipsters? Gypsy Magic’s past 2 runs, imported jockey, apparently better time clocked by colts, deceptive Colt’s trial run etc. did help run at lucrative odds –though he was third favorite in the bookie’s ring
I’m not a regular or a professional tipster but did short-list him in my selections on 8th. July and 10th. July on IR.com and my blog respectively.
Today , horse racing has become a game for thick-skinned ,strong heart ,calculative, clever and deceptive person or a group who has these qualities in a collective format.
The tipsters( few of them very sincere) and track reporters who watch the morning track, analyse the past performance and look for the clues from jockey change, shoe change, equipment change are likely to be fooled by subtly deceptive methods and should be wary and careful, because the intentions of the connections ,now must be given prime importance, before he can say with a cautious remark that horse A is likely to win . The aura built around Gypsy Magic, Icebreaker, Aboline (colts trial)and many others is to be viewed in this light.
But the truth is, sometimes stranger than fiction! .Today all these professionals can not exist for long in the absence of this man(or these men) called- tipster(s).
These men(ignoring hi-fi computer savy experts) ,many of them have very limited facility available, try to predict the winner of a race (few crore rupees are lost or won or change hands in every race)- sometimes for a fee and most of the times for a pittance called – salary, compensation, commission.
Trainers go on strike, jockeys go on strike ,even syces casual workers strike whenever they want and owners also can withdraw their horses from racing but two racing aficionados – called punters and tipsters do not , rather dare not and thus are reduced to a group called ‘necessary evil’.
Let us consider a situation. We know there are 4 to 5 thousand diehard punters in Mumbai-Pune, same number in Bangalore- Mysore circuit and about 3000+ in Hyderabad and same number in Kolkata , Delhi, Ooty,Chennai combined , adding up to a number close to 15,000 . Come what may , these chronic(pardon my lingo) aficionados will go to a racecourse to bet or sometimes watch the races . some of them bet in ‘petis’ or ‘half’ or ‘quarter’ but most of them bet in tenners or hundreds. These tenner-betters called public, commoner ,gambler are the backbone of Indian racing, at present . Remove them from the racing scene, these racing clubs –in India ,will collapse !
Why these penny punters(in England) or tenner-punter (in India) come to racecourse. In the hope of making money, obviously! They buy a racebook costing Rs.10/- or a racing-sheet(Rs.5) or even a newspaper(Re.1).
Selections given by these experts forces them, if they follow them, to put their money on a runner who may win or lose. Most of the time , they lose because they can’t study seriously the past performance, pedigree, form, and other parameters of the race because they have no time for these finesse.
All of them (penny punter and ‘peti’ punter) blame the tipster who with limited resources, knowledge and info provides/offers his opinion which may be correct but more often is wrong because allover the world the percentage of public choice(fav) is not more than 30 percent.
Why is it so?
Because homo sapiens (called human beings) have a genetic trait to take calculated risk, face dangers- after ascertaining the chance of coming out of it unscathed and this trait has given them an ability of logical reasoning ,rationalizing and of course an ability of ‘deception’. This ability of deception is manifested by giving a track in the dead of night(mid 20th. century), in and out running, using incorrect equipment etc. The list is endless.
Before we delve deep in this rigmarole of excuses put forward by one or all for losing their hard earned money or the deception perfected by many professionals let us have a look at the perception of a punter/race-goer- including professionals on the performance of the ‘scapegoats’ – the tipsters in the Indian racing scenario. Out of 10,000 hardcore punters allover India ,some have access to internet and those persons surf various websites and blogs to ‘read or see’ what is new on their site/blog. I also visit these blogs and sites too. Shyam/Swamy/Golmaster have an average of 400 visitors and Prakash Gosavi says that his blog has been visited by more than 600 persons very recently. I‘ve no data about websites though the owner of one website has told me that on a race day 2000 to 3000 persons visit his site. Being pessimist we can say that at least 1000 persons try to find out the opinion/tips of some persons they think know better than them. If they (visitors/punters/opinion-makers etc.) succeed they try to take credit for their intelligent(borrowed?) selections and if they fail then of-course these few punching bags( called tipsters) are always available to share and accept the blame without a murmur.
If they dare to complain they are shouted down , ridiculed and insulted. Inspite of that these opportunists still visit these websites/blogs regularly for the free info and tips .
Why? They have no option. Punters and tipsters have a love-hate relationship, which changes race to race and race day to race day. A casual tipster may survive on his own by betting on his fancy –once in a while, but if they stop offering tips- what a punter will do? Imagine if all the race books give all other info except tips newspapers/sites/blogs stop giving free selections what these peti-punters or race clubs will do in the absence of penny punter?
Gamblers will switch over to another form of gambling and breeders will sell their produce to buggy-owners! Open spaces of race clubs will be used by joggers and real sports persons( boys and girls) than pseudo-sportsmen! If our politiciansand builders lobby permit that to happen!
But we are discussing punter –tipster relationship or dependence. Historically punters came first and tipsters came later in this game . An average punter has resources ( money, risk taking ability, backup) but insufficient knowledge of the game while a tipster has knowledge( acquired, borrowed, spurious, fake) and both need each other for sustenance in racing.
While resource can be unlimited ,knowledge has a boundary , a limit due to inadequacy of the provider. In the context of a horse race this inadequacy becomes unforgivable though in any other commercial activity loss and profit are accepted without any complaint. In a business activity a net profit of 15 to 25 % after a year is gladly accepted but in racing activity after 3 hrs a return of 20 to 30% is considered inadequate. This brings us to a remark by an Indian breeder who said ‘pay peanuts you get monkeys’. If this person ( he/she) can say this to another who has paid few lacs to buy a thoroughbred why can’t a tipster(who receives few tenners or few hundreds) be allowed to use the same words. In a study carried by me in 2004 when a cash prize of Rs. 100,000/- was offered by RWITC during Pune season I had proved( available in another article) that the performance of tipsters had improved appreciably – though only one of them could win that prize.
This brings us to Bangalore summer Derby where most of the punters lost and most of the tipsters failed. I’m not going to single out any group – punter/tipster/owner/trainer/jockey for a blameworthy/praiseworthy performance but will try to bring out some facts and data overlooked , ignored by many.
Let us start with some harsh, real, economic facts.
Economy first: an owner buys a horse , hands over to a trainer and expects a decent return on his investment. A trainer tries to win (or return) as much as is possible to retain the goodwill and the future retainer ship by the owner and a jockey(retained or hired) tries to help them. This is an ideal situation .One out of 100 thoroughbred only performs well, rather do perform true to ‘form’ and brings laurels to all connected with him. Not all- they show variable performance pattern. This brings us to dubious, deceptive, false runs of a horse which are noted down by professionals ,including tipsters, and a consensual opinion is generated about a runner’s future prospects- which can be deceptively wrong.
Let us examine all the points made and above observations in the context of recent Bangalore summer Derby.
18 horses, biggest field ever for Bangalore Derby, faces the starter. Aboline from draw no 18 –farthest draw took over lead at 1950m belying the age old theory of unfavorable draw and won start to finish on a slowly rising track – contradicting another theory that a horse can not win a route (>2000m) race start to finish in a competitive field.
But did he really destroy the age old beliefs held by some. Perhaps, no! why do I say that ?
I said it before the race was run , that his dam Super Fan has run 43 times –a record for an US runner ( they run maximum only 7-10 times before retirement) proving durability, strength in the bloodline and her winning distance gave him a mitochondrial advantage to run over longer distances.
How did he beat Jacqueline – trip handicappers will explain in detail why did she lose by short head as I’m not doing post race analysis here !
Why was he missed by almost ‘all’ the tipsters? Gypsy Magic’s past 2 runs, imported jockey, apparently better time clocked by colts, deceptive Colt’s trial run etc. did help run at lucrative odds –though he was third favorite in the bookie’s ring
I’m not a regular or a professional tipster but did short-list him in my selections on 8th. July and 10th. July on IR.com and my blog respectively.
Today , horse racing has become a game for thick-skinned ,strong heart ,calculative, clever and deceptive person or a group who has these qualities in a collective format.
The tipsters( few of them very sincere) and track reporters who watch the morning track, analyse the past performance and look for the clues from jockey change, shoe change, equipment change are likely to be fooled by subtly deceptive methods and should be wary and careful, because the intentions of the connections ,now must be given prime importance, before he can say with a cautious remark that horse A is likely to win . The aura built around Gypsy Magic, Icebreaker, Aboline (colts trial)and many others is to be viewed in this light.
7/13/2009
Indian versus foreign riders
It is not correct to compare an Indian jockey with a foreign jockey, because though we do not get the top class foreign jockeys( they go to better paying countries)a foreign jockey coming to India comes for 'vacation' as racing in Europe is stopped during winter. Of course they have to be average plus to remain here as they cost many times than an average Indian jockey.
they follow the connection's instructions to win or pull a horse. period.
I don’t follow international racing with my limited resources ,but read ,study and think and think again(only facilty- freely available to us - Indians) to comprehend and keep abreast of the goings on in the international circuit . Hence my info about foreign jockys may be outdated , perhaps, but should not be wrong…
It must be a common knowledge to us, Indians, that due to commercial considerations , at present , top rung European jockeys go to Singapore/Hongkong/Australasia during their ‘winter vacation’ and only B grade jockeys land up in India because we can’t pay up as much as east Asian trainer/owners can…let us accept this fact…
But let us accept another fact…these foreign riders achieve more than accepted percentage of wins than local riders in India , due to :
1)availability of better mounts,
2) more faith in their ability by trainer/owner
3)suspicion of local rider’s connection with bookies/undesirable persons
4)many more unmentionable reasons…
and this brings us to present day reality… which is that inspite of their presence and better winning average an Indian rider becomes a champion because he knows that they will go away in the end of February when European racing season starts. An example. In 2007/2008 D Grant and S Fargeat,both average riders, would have given a tough time to our ace rider C Rajendera if they could ride in April2008 but C Rajendra was not unduly bothered as he knew that he can pickup the ‘thread’ after the departure of these socalled ‘superior’ foreign riders. His complacency was evident to all serious observers… but in 2008/2009 Daniel Grant was the champion because he stayed back!
What does it prove ,or boils down to? One of our famous rider , when thrown out by the racing baron was moving around – racing helmet in hand during morning track work and took almost 2 yrs to get rehabilitated ! He of course gives interviews out of turn !!
But that is not the end…let us analyse the racing when topgrade foreign jockeys use to visit India .. Due to constraint of time I will discuss only one race day – Indian Derby day when ‘no holds barred’ racing on true merit normally take place…
Mumbai, 1991-92, Indian Derby Day – 2 Feb 92
1st. race won by E Johnsson(foreigner),beating Dettori(fav-ended 5th.)
2nd.race won by Bhagwat (Indian)
3rd. race won by RHughes(foreigner)
4th.race won by Moses (Indian)
5th.race won by Aslam ( Indian) beating willie Carson –Indian Derby
6th.race won by Shroff (Indian)
7th.race won by Hanut Singh (Indian)
8th.race won by Bajrang Singh(Indian)
Therefore, on an Indian Derby day 6 Indian rider won races against 2 wins of foreign riders .
and who were those foreign riders who rode against these Indian jockeys….
They were…
Lestor Pigott, Willie Carson, R Hughes, JP Murtagh,K Fallon, E Johnson,P Eddery, J Lowe and L Dettori…
Some of them were/are world famous names , at that/this time, who were beaten on Mumbai racetrack by some ‘not so famous’ Indian jockeys …
Therefore, the ability or the expertise or the superiority of Indian versus foreign jockeys , subject of discussion, must be analysed in a wider perspective and should not be narrowed down to the present crop of ‘visiting professionals’ who become more faithful to the king than the king himself ! I am sure that I have made my position very clear , even then I am ready to discuss these or related points in any forum or at any place and I must categorically state that I’ve great respect for few foreign riders – Lestoer Piggot,Willie Carson, Mike Kinane are some of them…Rest of them will do anything for their Indian retainers because they know that ‘following instructions’ will make them richer by few thousand dollars everytime and anytime they visit this great country of ours – called India.
they follow the connection's instructions to win or pull a horse. period.
I don’t follow international racing with my limited resources ,but read ,study and think and think again(only facilty- freely available to us - Indians) to comprehend and keep abreast of the goings on in the international circuit . Hence my info about foreign jockys may be outdated , perhaps, but should not be wrong…
It must be a common knowledge to us, Indians, that due to commercial considerations , at present , top rung European jockeys go to Singapore/Hongkong/Australasia during their ‘winter vacation’ and only B grade jockeys land up in India because we can’t pay up as much as east Asian trainer/owners can…let us accept this fact…
But let us accept another fact…these foreign riders achieve more than accepted percentage of wins than local riders in India , due to :
1)availability of better mounts,
2) more faith in their ability by trainer/owner
3)suspicion of local rider’s connection with bookies/undesirable persons
4)many more unmentionable reasons…
and this brings us to present day reality… which is that inspite of their presence and better winning average an Indian rider becomes a champion because he knows that they will go away in the end of February when European racing season starts. An example. In 2007/2008 D Grant and S Fargeat,both average riders, would have given a tough time to our ace rider C Rajendera if they could ride in April2008 but C Rajendra was not unduly bothered as he knew that he can pickup the ‘thread’ after the departure of these socalled ‘superior’ foreign riders. His complacency was evident to all serious observers… but in 2008/2009 Daniel Grant was the champion because he stayed back!
What does it prove ,or boils down to? One of our famous rider , when thrown out by the racing baron was moving around – racing helmet in hand during morning track work and took almost 2 yrs to get rehabilitated ! He of course gives interviews out of turn !!
But that is not the end…let us analyse the racing when topgrade foreign jockeys use to visit India .. Due to constraint of time I will discuss only one race day – Indian Derby day when ‘no holds barred’ racing on true merit normally take place…
Mumbai, 1991-92, Indian Derby Day – 2 Feb 92
1st. race won by E Johnsson(foreigner),beating Dettori(fav-ended 5th.)
2nd.race won by Bhagwat (Indian)
3rd. race won by RHughes(foreigner)
4th.race won by Moses (Indian)
5th.race won by Aslam ( Indian) beating willie Carson –Indian Derby
6th.race won by Shroff (Indian)
7th.race won by Hanut Singh (Indian)
8th.race won by Bajrang Singh(Indian)
Therefore, on an Indian Derby day 6 Indian rider won races against 2 wins of foreign riders .
and who were those foreign riders who rode against these Indian jockeys….
They were…
Lestor Pigott, Willie Carson, R Hughes, JP Murtagh,K Fallon, E Johnson,P Eddery, J Lowe and L Dettori…
Some of them were/are world famous names , at that/this time, who were beaten on Mumbai racetrack by some ‘not so famous’ Indian jockeys …
Therefore, the ability or the expertise or the superiority of Indian versus foreign jockeys , subject of discussion, must be analysed in a wider perspective and should not be narrowed down to the present crop of ‘visiting professionals’ who become more faithful to the king than the king himself ! I am sure that I have made my position very clear , even then I am ready to discuss these or related points in any forum or at any place and I must categorically state that I’ve great respect for few foreign riders – Lestoer Piggot,Willie Carson, Mike Kinane are some of them…Rest of them will do anything for their Indian retainers because they know that ‘following instructions’ will make them richer by few thousand dollars everytime and anytime they visit this great country of ours – called India.
7/10/2009
Bangalore summer Derby - an overview
Bangalore Derby contenders : a short Review
Bangalore summer Derby 2009 is an open race unlike earlier years when Set Alight, Southern Empire were undisputed choice to win this race .In my opinion the winner must emerge from the following list (in alphabetical order):
Aboline,
Astral Flash,
Fair Option,
Gypsy Magic,
Jacqueline,
Polish Patriot,
Spearhead,
Sprint Star,
Star of Marmalade.
A long list, true but this indicates the openness of the race. I’ll take up each runner in the alphabetical order and then give my order of preference.
Before I start I must give a short brief of the methodology used by me to enable a first timer to understand the technical jargons used . Thoroughbreds are categorized as sprinters(upto 1400m) , milers(1400m to 1800m) and routers or stayers(winners over 2000m). Dr Roman in his system has divided sires(only) –ignoring the female thoroughbred’s direct contribution, in 5 categories based on his and his progeny’s performance called aptitude . These are named as Brilliant(sprinter), Intermediate (sprinter+), Classic( miler), Solid(normally1800-2200m) and Professional(> 2000m).Polish Patriot’s Roman numbers are 3-5-21-1-2 indicating that he has received 3 Brilliant ,5 Intermediate, 21 Classic, 1 Solid and 2 Professional pts. from his ancestors (upto 4 generation only). Conduit mare classification also follow same methodology but only for female thoroughbreds.
More numbers in an aptitude better may be the performance of a TB in that category.
To start with I’ll give a brief account of pedigree followed by an analysis of the past performance.
Aboline(Burden of Proof-Super Fan) has Roman dosage points(RDP) (3-0-11-0-0) indicating apparent lack of stamina, reinforcing my belief that RDP is a pointer and not a decider for the ‘ability’ of a thoroughbred(TB) because Burden of Proof has produced Derby winners – Fantabulous King(Bangalore Derby) and Full Speed (Mysore Derby). His average winning distance(AWD) of 1392m is comparable to Glory of Dancer – sire of Antonios, winner of Indian Derby. Dam of Antonios is Twin Star ,winner of Indian Oaks (2400m ) and she provides the stamina quotient to him. Based on the same analogy we find that Super Fan – dam of Aboline has won 14 races (1200m to 1900m) and has run 43 races showing durability, hardiness ,a rarity for a US thoroughbred. Though Aboline is a ‘late’ foal born when she was 19 yr old ‘matron’ has received stamina genes from his maternal grand dam Sweet Delilah((3-3-4-0-4) and should not problem upto 2000m –Derby distance. His position on the board will depend on the tactics employed by the connections.
Astral Flash (Belong to Me-Burooq) with RDP(7-9-20-0-0) has beaten Captivating – highest rated filly
Convincingly at Mumbai and her style of running indicates that she has received her turn of foot from her sire Belong to Me(winner of 7 races ,most of them 1200m) and though her dam , Burooq with RDP(10-11-19-2-0) - has never sat foot on a racetrack her grand dam Nasaayem(10-3-9-4-0) did win a race and her great grand dam Safaanh(5-5-12-10) has produced several stakes winner. But Astral Flash does not inspire the confidence to win this Derby.
Classerville (Placerville-Pleasure Hunt) with RDP ((11-3-13-1-2) is some of the few contestants who have the blood to win classic( 2000m+) races. Though a son of Indian Oaks winner who has placed 2nd. in Invitation Cup he (51 1/2kg) gets beaten by Aboline (56 1/2kg) stand no chance to win this race unless he shows remarkable improvement in his form . QED.
Fair Option(Inner City- Factual) with roman points(1-4-13-0-0) is a ‘dark horse’ who carrying 61kgs. Ended 2 lengths behind Polish Patriot(56kgs) while stalking him 2 to 2 ½ length behind from 300m to 50m. His final position vis-à-vis PP will be worth noticing. He may not win the Derby but if stalks Polish Patriot , he should not be far behind. Ridden hard may be very close to him for his discomfort.
Gypsy Magic(Placerville- Stunning) with dosage of (9-5-13-0-1) is a celebrated full sister of three classic winners , namely, Smart Chieftain, Classical Act and Southern Empire and though none of the daughters of Stunning have performed above ‘par’, Gypsy Magic may prove every theoretician wrong by performing as well as male progeny of Stunning . She did run ‘funnily’ in Poonawalla multimillion and fillies trial , but the blame must go squarely to her rider-partiallty to the trainer for not training her well or properly to ‘behave’, than to her wayward performance. She is one of the best 3 yr old , and whether she wins or loses this Derby contest – she is bound to create more interest in her – because she is the last of the ‘bests’ of Stunning. We will not see any more of them!
Jacqueline(King Charlemagne-Talita Kumi) is an import from Europe like Astral Flash and Polish Patriot. Here I want to use an analogy. If we equate the racing in Mumbai with the quality of product (TBs) with US, racing at Bangalore with TBs at England and France , the products of Germany and Italy will match with Hyderabad.. No disrespect to anyone but an assessment which is personal and therefore may be affected by prejudice and bias . Of course a Fedrico Tesio may create a history but how many Tesios we can find in TB industry. Perhaps none. Not now. Commercial compulsions has forced Tesios to follow the dotted line. Leaving aside the diversion, let us look at Jacqueline(4-0-17-1-2) . a fairly impressive ,balanced pedigree which can partake with mid –distance races and classic distances too! Coming back to pedigree I find following . King Charlemagne (7-1-30-0-0) a proven sprinter sire and conforming to the current breeding practices covered Talita Kumi(5-1-9-2-4) a confirmed stayer (won 200m and 2200m races) and the result was a foal called Jacqueline(4-0-17-1-2) which withourt much effort indicated a TB well suited to a mile and above. She won a 1200m race coming from 10th. position and ended 3rd. in next race (1400m) from 12th position . It is immaterial that a win in this second run of her career would have made her richer by more than half a million rupees! In the third run of her career she won Rs.39,00,000 prize money and is trying to win a classic in the 4th. attempt. Of course some have Derby in their second or third attempt. The sire line - does not provide any comfort, confidence or encouragement for her ability but the dam line does. While King Charlemagne is a pure sprinter his dam is a runner up in two Oaks( Hollywood and Del Mar Oaks) runs in USA . Talita Kumi has also won 2 races at 2000m and 2200m and her dam Temple Music did win 4 races in her career. Correlating various factors it seems that Jacqueline is a potential and serious contender for this Derby.
Polish Patriot(PP) (Polish Precedent- Be Mine)has Roman dosage point(3-5-21-1-2) and a DI 1.37 and CD of 0.19 indicating the concentration of his ‘ability’ in the ‘central region’(my conjecture-not Roman’s) of the racing distances. I do not subscribe to Roman’s theory in totality as it excludes the contribution of the female line which provides, at least 50% of the ‘ability’ if not more to the progeny. Using cyber cop’s information his conduit mare profile is 6-9-2-6-4 and Triads of 17-17-12 confirms the presumption that a smart trainer can convert him into a runner who can win up to 2000m which should be his optimum distance because the inheritance does not reinforce the promise that he will be comfortable beyond that distance at this time. The GSV score of 68+ is good, if not very good, from the point of view of Indian standards because the profile of most of the imported mares does not suggest a GSV score of 70+ common for American thoroughbreds(TBs).
Having a closer look at the ancestors we find Polish Precedent((6-14-26-0-0) – a US born colt did most of running in France and England and has won races at Ascot ,Chantilly and Longchamp –some of the prestigious racecourses, but most of the wins were confined to 1400m and 1600m. Of course he was perhaps never tried for a 2000m race - but he is a proven miler ,no doubt. The grandsire of PP is celebrated Danzig (15-11-14-0-0) who ran 3 times won all the 3 races and retired to stud due to injury.
Apparently the male line provides only speed to PP and therefore, the stamina must come from female source and that is amply proved by BE Mine(family-3). Be Mine(3-3-24-2-4) is a beautiful example of ‘balanced’ Roman numbers. Her DI is 1.0(ideal) and CD(-0.03-good) and the presence of Solid (2pts) and Professional(4) which are necessary for a stayer will be transmitted by her to the progeny. BE Mine’s sire Wolfhound (8-6-40-0-0) is again a speed influence- being a European champ for 1000m-1400m and this speed is augmented by Upper Strata(8-3-12-7-8)- dam of Be Mine and grand dam of Polish Patriot.
Therefore , while the speed comes by the sire line of PP, the stamina is provided by the dam line and that is the correct channel because mitochondria –essential for the sustenance of endurance of a thoroughbred comes only from the dam and not from the sire.
PP started his racing career a bit late, being April born and won creditably his first race- a 1400m in a fairly good time of 1m 28.6s when the penetrometer reading was 4.6cm. In his next outing with a step up distance of 1800m he again won it comfortably in 1m 52.6s(PR – 3.5cm).
Can he win Derby on 12th. July? Perhaps, yes. Because he can stay the distance and is a live contender with Gypsy Magic, Jacqueline and Sprint Star.
Spearhead(Burden of Proof- Imposing) with adoage(5-4-10-0-1) had an imposing record before entering Colts Trial contest on 21st. June. Running 3rd. to Captivating(best 3yo till then in race no 179, beating classic hopeful –Star of Marmalade in next(race no 210) and winning Juvenile colts in a smashing time of 1m 35.7s (actual time 1m 37.9s) at Mumbai created an aura around him. Like his full brother – Fantabulous King who became a hero after winning Bangalore summer Derby and then went down to zero , Spearhead seems to be heading on the same path. Perhaps.
Sprint Star( Ontario- Royal Retreat)-(3-1-6-4-0) is a funny name for a thoroughbred whose pedigree says that he is an outright stayer and not a sprinter! Maybe, like Abs Fab they tried to run him in sprints and experimented to run him in Colts Trial and after the result gladly paid Rs. 10,00,000/- to enter him in the Derby. Hats off to the courage , the ambition, the risk and the optimism of the connections . This is what the horseracing is in all its glory and uncertainties. I appreciate the courage and the risk involved and wish them success. Sprint Star is the son of Ontario(4-4-6-8-2) a hybrid of speed ,precociousness (Storm Cat, Storm Bird) and endurance, stubbornness, durability(Bustino , Jim French). A strange genetic mix of speed (from Cat and Bird) and stamina and endurance (from Bustino and Jim French) has bestowed an acceleration and the ability to sustain it- provided it is exploited correctly, successfully and improved gradually. IN the absence of Leonardo who also has the blood of Bustino he is a live threat to the best and all other competitors
Star of Marmalade(Placerville-Mystic Memory) with a dosage (8-3-8-0-1) will also compete in this race . The dam of Mystical needs no introduction. but forces one to think that – was Mystical a freak? No other produce of Mystic Memory could enhance her reputation and Star of Marmalade with all the facilities and opportunities has failed to live up to his illustrious pedigree .Let us hope to see him in better light in his winter campaign.
Bangalore summer Derby 2009 is an open race unlike earlier years when Set Alight, Southern Empire were undisputed choice to win this race .In my opinion the winner must emerge from the following list (in alphabetical order):
Aboline,
Astral Flash,
Fair Option,
Gypsy Magic,
Jacqueline,
Polish Patriot,
Spearhead,
Sprint Star,
Star of Marmalade.
A long list, true but this indicates the openness of the race. I’ll take up each runner in the alphabetical order and then give my order of preference.
Before I start I must give a short brief of the methodology used by me to enable a first timer to understand the technical jargons used . Thoroughbreds are categorized as sprinters(upto 1400m) , milers(1400m to 1800m) and routers or stayers(winners over 2000m). Dr Roman in his system has divided sires(only) –ignoring the female thoroughbred’s direct contribution, in 5 categories based on his and his progeny’s performance called aptitude . These are named as Brilliant(sprinter), Intermediate (sprinter+), Classic( miler), Solid(normally1800-2200m) and Professional(> 2000m).Polish Patriot’s Roman numbers are 3-5-21-1-2 indicating that he has received 3 Brilliant ,5 Intermediate, 21 Classic, 1 Solid and 2 Professional pts. from his ancestors (upto 4 generation only). Conduit mare classification also follow same methodology but only for female thoroughbreds.
More numbers in an aptitude better may be the performance of a TB in that category.
To start with I’ll give a brief account of pedigree followed by an analysis of the past performance.
Aboline(Burden of Proof-Super Fan) has Roman dosage points(RDP) (3-0-11-0-0) indicating apparent lack of stamina, reinforcing my belief that RDP is a pointer and not a decider for the ‘ability’ of a thoroughbred(TB) because Burden of Proof has produced Derby winners – Fantabulous King(Bangalore Derby) and Full Speed (Mysore Derby). His average winning distance(AWD) of 1392m is comparable to Glory of Dancer – sire of Antonios, winner of Indian Derby. Dam of Antonios is Twin Star ,winner of Indian Oaks (2400m ) and she provides the stamina quotient to him. Based on the same analogy we find that Super Fan – dam of Aboline has won 14 races (1200m to 1900m) and has run 43 races showing durability, hardiness ,a rarity for a US thoroughbred. Though Aboline is a ‘late’ foal born when she was 19 yr old ‘matron’ has received stamina genes from his maternal grand dam Sweet Delilah((3-3-4-0-4) and should not problem upto 2000m –Derby distance. His position on the board will depend on the tactics employed by the connections.
Astral Flash (Belong to Me-Burooq) with RDP(7-9-20-0-0) has beaten Captivating – highest rated filly
Convincingly at Mumbai and her style of running indicates that she has received her turn of foot from her sire Belong to Me(winner of 7 races ,most of them 1200m) and though her dam , Burooq with RDP(10-11-19-2-0) - has never sat foot on a racetrack her grand dam Nasaayem(10-3-9-4-0) did win a race and her great grand dam Safaanh(5-5-12-10) has produced several stakes winner. But Astral Flash does not inspire the confidence to win this Derby.
Classerville (Placerville-Pleasure Hunt) with RDP ((11-3-13-1-2) is some of the few contestants who have the blood to win classic( 2000m+) races. Though a son of Indian Oaks winner who has placed 2nd. in Invitation Cup he (51 1/2kg) gets beaten by Aboline (56 1/2kg) stand no chance to win this race unless he shows remarkable improvement in his form . QED.
Fair Option(Inner City- Factual) with roman points(1-4-13-0-0) is a ‘dark horse’ who carrying 61kgs. Ended 2 lengths behind Polish Patriot(56kgs) while stalking him 2 to 2 ½ length behind from 300m to 50m. His final position vis-à-vis PP will be worth noticing. He may not win the Derby but if stalks Polish Patriot , he should not be far behind. Ridden hard may be very close to him for his discomfort.
Gypsy Magic(Placerville- Stunning) with dosage of (9-5-13-0-1) is a celebrated full sister of three classic winners , namely, Smart Chieftain, Classical Act and Southern Empire and though none of the daughters of Stunning have performed above ‘par’, Gypsy Magic may prove every theoretician wrong by performing as well as male progeny of Stunning . She did run ‘funnily’ in Poonawalla multimillion and fillies trial , but the blame must go squarely to her rider-partiallty to the trainer for not training her well or properly to ‘behave’, than to her wayward performance. She is one of the best 3 yr old , and whether she wins or loses this Derby contest – she is bound to create more interest in her – because she is the last of the ‘bests’ of Stunning. We will not see any more of them!
Jacqueline(King Charlemagne-Talita Kumi) is an import from Europe like Astral Flash and Polish Patriot. Here I want to use an analogy. If we equate the racing in Mumbai with the quality of product (TBs) with US, racing at Bangalore with TBs at England and France , the products of Germany and Italy will match with Hyderabad.. No disrespect to anyone but an assessment which is personal and therefore may be affected by prejudice and bias . Of course a Fedrico Tesio may create a history but how many Tesios we can find in TB industry. Perhaps none. Not now. Commercial compulsions has forced Tesios to follow the dotted line. Leaving aside the diversion, let us look at Jacqueline(4-0-17-1-2) . a fairly impressive ,balanced pedigree which can partake with mid –distance races and classic distances too! Coming back to pedigree I find following . King Charlemagne (7-1-30-0-0) a proven sprinter sire and conforming to the current breeding practices covered Talita Kumi(5-1-9-2-4) a confirmed stayer (won 200m and 2200m races) and the result was a foal called Jacqueline(4-0-17-1-2) which withourt much effort indicated a TB well suited to a mile and above. She won a 1200m race coming from 10th. position and ended 3rd. in next race (1400m) from 12th position . It is immaterial that a win in this second run of her career would have made her richer by more than half a million rupees! In the third run of her career she won Rs.39,00,000 prize money and is trying to win a classic in the 4th. attempt. Of course some have Derby in their second or third attempt. The sire line - does not provide any comfort, confidence or encouragement for her ability but the dam line does. While King Charlemagne is a pure sprinter his dam is a runner up in two Oaks( Hollywood and Del Mar Oaks) runs in USA . Talita Kumi has also won 2 races at 2000m and 2200m and her dam Temple Music did win 4 races in her career. Correlating various factors it seems that Jacqueline is a potential and serious contender for this Derby.
Polish Patriot(PP) (Polish Precedent- Be Mine)has Roman dosage point(3-5-21-1-2) and a DI 1.37 and CD of 0.19 indicating the concentration of his ‘ability’ in the ‘central region’(my conjecture-not Roman’s) of the racing distances. I do not subscribe to Roman’s theory in totality as it excludes the contribution of the female line which provides, at least 50% of the ‘ability’ if not more to the progeny. Using cyber cop’s information his conduit mare profile is 6-9-2-6-4 and Triads of 17-17-12 confirms the presumption that a smart trainer can convert him into a runner who can win up to 2000m which should be his optimum distance because the inheritance does not reinforce the promise that he will be comfortable beyond that distance at this time. The GSV score of 68+ is good, if not very good, from the point of view of Indian standards because the profile of most of the imported mares does not suggest a GSV score of 70+ common for American thoroughbreds(TBs).
Having a closer look at the ancestors we find Polish Precedent((6-14-26-0-0) – a US born colt did most of running in France and England and has won races at Ascot ,Chantilly and Longchamp –some of the prestigious racecourses, but most of the wins were confined to 1400m and 1600m. Of course he was perhaps never tried for a 2000m race - but he is a proven miler ,no doubt. The grandsire of PP is celebrated Danzig (15-11-14-0-0) who ran 3 times won all the 3 races and retired to stud due to injury.
Apparently the male line provides only speed to PP and therefore, the stamina must come from female source and that is amply proved by BE Mine(family-3). Be Mine(3-3-24-2-4) is a beautiful example of ‘balanced’ Roman numbers. Her DI is 1.0(ideal) and CD(-0.03-good) and the presence of Solid (2pts) and Professional(4) which are necessary for a stayer will be transmitted by her to the progeny. BE Mine’s sire Wolfhound (8-6-40-0-0) is again a speed influence- being a European champ for 1000m-1400m and this speed is augmented by Upper Strata(8-3-12-7-8)- dam of Be Mine and grand dam of Polish Patriot.
Therefore , while the speed comes by the sire line of PP, the stamina is provided by the dam line and that is the correct channel because mitochondria –essential for the sustenance of endurance of a thoroughbred comes only from the dam and not from the sire.
PP started his racing career a bit late, being April born and won creditably his first race- a 1400m in a fairly good time of 1m 28.6s when the penetrometer reading was 4.6cm. In his next outing with a step up distance of 1800m he again won it comfortably in 1m 52.6s(PR – 3.5cm).
Can he win Derby on 12th. July? Perhaps, yes. Because he can stay the distance and is a live contender with Gypsy Magic, Jacqueline and Sprint Star.
Spearhead(Burden of Proof- Imposing) with adoage(5-4-10-0-1) had an imposing record before entering Colts Trial contest on 21st. June. Running 3rd. to Captivating(best 3yo till then in race no 179, beating classic hopeful –Star of Marmalade in next(race no 210) and winning Juvenile colts in a smashing time of 1m 35.7s (actual time 1m 37.9s) at Mumbai created an aura around him. Like his full brother – Fantabulous King who became a hero after winning Bangalore summer Derby and then went down to zero , Spearhead seems to be heading on the same path. Perhaps.
Sprint Star( Ontario- Royal Retreat)-(3-1-6-4-0) is a funny name for a thoroughbred whose pedigree says that he is an outright stayer and not a sprinter! Maybe, like Abs Fab they tried to run him in sprints and experimented to run him in Colts Trial and after the result gladly paid Rs. 10,00,000/- to enter him in the Derby. Hats off to the courage , the ambition, the risk and the optimism of the connections . This is what the horseracing is in all its glory and uncertainties. I appreciate the courage and the risk involved and wish them success. Sprint Star is the son of Ontario(4-4-6-8-2) a hybrid of speed ,precociousness (Storm Cat, Storm Bird) and endurance, stubbornness, durability(Bustino , Jim French). A strange genetic mix of speed (from Cat and Bird) and stamina and endurance (from Bustino and Jim French) has bestowed an acceleration and the ability to sustain it- provided it is exploited correctly, successfully and improved gradually. IN the absence of Leonardo who also has the blood of Bustino he is a live threat to the best and all other competitors
Star of Marmalade(Placerville-Mystic Memory) with a dosage (8-3-8-0-1) will also compete in this race . The dam of Mystical needs no introduction. but forces one to think that – was Mystical a freak? No other produce of Mystic Memory could enhance her reputation and Star of Marmalade with all the facilities and opportunities has failed to live up to his illustrious pedigree .Let us hope to see him in better light in his winter campaign.
7/07/2009
taxes,raid ,bookmaker and punter
A ‘news’ or an article about a raid by RWITC security on ‘unofficial’ or ‘illegal’ bookmakers, on a blog forced me to write this response which the blogger did not publish. Of course that was his blog and his right to refuse/accept a response is unquestionable.
Why people don’t pay tax? How black money was generated in India?
A short recall from the budget speech on 29 Februay 1956 by Mr CD Deshmukh our finance minister-on that day may throw some light. He said : I propose that rate of tax on the highest slab of income ,that is,above Rs 1,50,000(per annum), will be 91.9% against the present figure of 88.6%...
What an honest ,hardworking Indian should do in this kind of ‘socialistic’ progressive society and country? I don’t know?
Few decades ago in 80's punters use to bet with zero tax with bookmakers at RWITC. In early 90's they started paying 10% tax(?). Many of my friends who were owners were doing it openly with the legal bookmakers and though all of them are now punters ,it is a brazen fact that ALL punters who bet more than Rs.2000 or 3000 with legal bookmakers do it even now openly under the very nose of these 'super intelligent' competent and 'sincere' security staff of RWITC!
If anybody wants a proof and RWITC's security staff is serious and Mr. Vivek Jain is really interested then they must go to the bookies ring at Mumbai,ON ANY RACING DAY and move around - they (all three) can find at least 10, if not more illegal bookies doing business. Loiter around the racecourse they may be lucky to find many more. Going on at Borivali is/was an open secret for more than last 2 years.Secrecy of operation has no meaning.
Finally, I must say ,a man is a slave of habits.Many years ago when BTC could convince Karnataka government to reduce taxes and increased their turnover from 100+ crore to 1000+ crore in about 10 or 12 years , why our high profile gentlemen who get selected/elected year after year(literally ad infinitum) could not convince Maharashtra govt. to do the same to eradicate the scourage of illegal betting defies logic and baffles a sensible man(nay person).Maybe,they don't have to pay any tax at all, on their betting !The comments and opinions are plain, bit sarcastic but true. May not go well with few- but I never write for them. Perhaps, I do it for a common, faceless, voiceless person called a punter...
Why people don’t pay tax? How black money was generated in India?
A short recall from the budget speech on 29 Februay 1956 by Mr CD Deshmukh our finance minister-on that day may throw some light. He said : I propose that rate of tax on the highest slab of income ,that is,above Rs 1,50,000(per annum), will be 91.9% against the present figure of 88.6%...
What an honest ,hardworking Indian should do in this kind of ‘socialistic’ progressive society and country? I don’t know?
Few decades ago in 80's punters use to bet with zero tax with bookmakers at RWITC. In early 90's they started paying 10% tax(?). Many of my friends who were owners were doing it openly with the legal bookmakers and though all of them are now punters ,it is a brazen fact that ALL punters who bet more than Rs.2000 or 3000 with legal bookmakers do it even now openly under the very nose of these 'super intelligent' competent and 'sincere' security staff of RWITC!
If anybody wants a proof and RWITC's security staff is serious and Mr. Vivek Jain is really interested then they must go to the bookies ring at Mumbai,ON ANY RACING DAY and move around - they (all three) can find at least 10, if not more illegal bookies doing business. Loiter around the racecourse they may be lucky to find many more. Going on at Borivali is/was an open secret for more than last 2 years.Secrecy of operation has no meaning.
Finally, I must say ,a man is a slave of habits.Many years ago when BTC could convince Karnataka government to reduce taxes and increased their turnover from 100+ crore to 1000+ crore in about 10 or 12 years , why our high profile gentlemen who get selected/elected year after year(literally ad infinitum) could not convince Maharashtra govt. to do the same to eradicate the scourage of illegal betting defies logic and baffles a sensible man(nay person).Maybe,they don't have to pay any tax at all, on their betting !The comments and opinions are plain, bit sarcastic but true. May not go well with few- but I never write for them. Perhaps, I do it for a common, faceless, voiceless person called a punter...
7/02/2009
tips,tipsters and critics
IN A MONEY GAME IT IS NAIVE TO ASK FREE LUNCHES OR DINNER..
Horseracing is a game of skill…Finding a winner of a race needs evaluation of many factors…More factors you include in your analysis better should be the result…How many punters (gamblers) have time, patience to follow these basicprinciples…Very few, but they are quick to blame everyone – tipster, jockey,trainer and owner…I am an occasional punter and a casual tipster-but was neither a jockeyor a trainer or a ownerI have read many postings on this subject, repeated with regular frequency by free-loaders on various racing sites, about free tips ,tipsters failed tips, wild tips(and their occasional success) and realized that a tipster is always held in ridicule by these so calledsmarty Jones…Why?Most of the tipsters are smalltime race aficionados who graduallygraduate to this position from humble beginnings and therefore,most of these smart gamblers take their opinions as a `necessary evil' andrely more on `khabar 'and blame the tipster if their `forecast or prediction'fails… they don't have guts to blame the `khabri'….But what is a tip ?A tip is a personal assessment/opinion about the winning chance ofa runner in a race.It can be right and of course it may be wrong…But who is a tipster ?A person who with sufficient/insufficient expertise/knowledge provides theassessment/opinion…And who is a punter ?A person with money( hard earned/borrowed/black) and wants to makeit grow - fast…But they are of 2 types…1) few- very few- who know horseracing, handicapping, anduse `khabar' to their advantage…they are privileged…ordinarypunter can not compete with them…2) the majority- called’ public’, constituting the majority of punters are those who buy a race book before entering a racecourse and dream of winning a fortune…they are the backbone of horseracing…this, kind/category of punters are those who depend on tips, followtipsters and blame them when they lose…they pay peanuts and desire toown thoroughbreds instead of monkeys… (said by a thoroughbredbreeder )…but what's the truth ?IN early1970's a tipster, by the name – Galloper , used to chargeRs.20/- for a day's tip….gold was Rs 250/10gm. and real estate flats were sold at Rs.50/ toRs. 70/- per sq.ft. at Andheri(Mumbai)… today gold is sold at Rs.14,000/-per10 gm. and the minimum rate per sq.ft. at Andheri is Rs. 7000/-… atipster( say VM Dalal) still charges Rs.50/- for a day's tipwhile one of his predecessor charged Rs.20/- in 1970- 39 years back…what is that which most of these critics on a free forum want from a tipster or a blogger? By paying peanuts they want to own an empire-perhaps. Not monkeys??Not convinced ? OK …let me give you a real life example…Few years back, to be exact and to the point ,during 2003 Puneracing season ,RWITC in a rare show of wisdom announced a prizefor the best tipster of a PARTICULAR DAY… the announcement wasmade on 10th. raceday in September2003 and the 18th. raceday inOctober was the D day. I have written an article earlier onthis subject few years back and will not repeat it but will present only thesalient points…for details you may refer to my old posting on IR.com(not available now)…The study was carried out in the following way…The tipsters selected were from Mumbai and they were …1)Cole race card tipster 2)Cole track reporter3)Money Spinner 4)LuckySpinner 5)Times of India. I could not include others as I did not have data about them. TO EVALUATE ONLY THEIR FIRST CHOICE WAS CONSIDEREDthe prize money was a whopping Rs. 100,000/-On 10th.day ( the day of announcement of the prize) theirperformance was…COLE--COLE TR…MONEY SPINNER…LUCKY SPINNER...TIMES OF INDIAOn 10th. day the return on betting on their FIRST choicewas as follows-20 ……..-26 …………+ 12…………………-8…………………-16but after declaration of prize, their selections improved and on18th. day the return-16………-23………….+18………………….+6………………..-36except TOI every other tipsters ROI has improved inanticipation of winning the bumper prize..After the prize was won by Gujrat Samachar tipster, theperformance of ALL the above tipsters went down…what does it prove ? pay peanuts – get monkeys…
To quote a punch-line from the ‘bai’ of a TV channel ( [ V ] )
‘itne paise may itnaich milenga’
Horseracing is a game of skill…Finding a winner of a race needs evaluation of many factors…More factors you include in your analysis better should be the result…How many punters (gamblers) have time, patience to follow these basicprinciples…Very few, but they are quick to blame everyone – tipster, jockey,trainer and owner…I am an occasional punter and a casual tipster-but was neither a jockeyor a trainer or a ownerI have read many postings on this subject, repeated with regular frequency by free-loaders on various racing sites, about free tips ,tipsters failed tips, wild tips(and their occasional success) and realized that a tipster is always held in ridicule by these so calledsmarty Jones…Why?Most of the tipsters are smalltime race aficionados who graduallygraduate to this position from humble beginnings and therefore,most of these smart gamblers take their opinions as a `necessary evil' andrely more on `khabar 'and blame the tipster if their `forecast or prediction'fails… they don't have guts to blame the `khabri'….But what is a tip ?A tip is a personal assessment/opinion about the winning chance ofa runner in a race.It can be right and of course it may be wrong…But who is a tipster ?A person who with sufficient/insufficient expertise/knowledge provides theassessment/opinion…And who is a punter ?A person with money( hard earned/borrowed/black) and wants to makeit grow - fast…But they are of 2 types…1) few- very few- who know horseracing, handicapping, anduse `khabar' to their advantage…they are privileged…ordinarypunter can not compete with them…2) the majority- called’ public’, constituting the majority of punters are those who buy a race book before entering a racecourse and dream of winning a fortune…they are the backbone of horseracing…this, kind/category of punters are those who depend on tips, followtipsters and blame them when they lose…they pay peanuts and desire toown thoroughbreds instead of monkeys… (said by a thoroughbredbreeder )…but what's the truth ?IN early1970's a tipster, by the name – Galloper , used to chargeRs.20/- for a day's tip….gold was Rs 250/10gm. and real estate flats were sold at Rs.50/ toRs. 70/- per sq.ft. at Andheri(Mumbai)… today gold is sold at Rs.14,000/-per10 gm. and the minimum rate per sq.ft. at Andheri is Rs. 7000/-… atipster( say VM Dalal) still charges Rs.50/- for a day's tipwhile one of his predecessor charged Rs.20/- in 1970- 39 years back…what is that which most of these critics on a free forum want from a tipster or a blogger? By paying peanuts they want to own an empire-perhaps. Not monkeys??Not convinced ? OK …let me give you a real life example…Few years back, to be exact and to the point ,during 2003 Puneracing season ,RWITC in a rare show of wisdom announced a prizefor the best tipster of a PARTICULAR DAY… the announcement wasmade on 10th. raceday in September2003 and the 18th. raceday inOctober was the D day. I have written an article earlier onthis subject few years back and will not repeat it but will present only thesalient points…for details you may refer to my old posting on IR.com(not available now)…The study was carried out in the following way…The tipsters selected were from Mumbai and they were …1)Cole race card tipster 2)Cole track reporter3)Money Spinner 4)LuckySpinner 5)Times of India. I could not include others as I did not have data about them. TO EVALUATE ONLY THEIR FIRST CHOICE WAS CONSIDEREDthe prize money was a whopping Rs. 100,000/-On 10th.day ( the day of announcement of the prize) theirperformance was…COLE--COLE TR…MONEY SPINNER…LUCKY SPINNER...TIMES OF INDIAOn 10th. day the return on betting on their FIRST choicewas as follows-20 ……..-26 …………+ 12…………………-8…………………-16but after declaration of prize, their selections improved and on18th. day the return-16………-23………….+18………………….+6………………..-36except TOI every other tipsters ROI has improved inanticipation of winning the bumper prize..After the prize was won by Gujrat Samachar tipster, theperformance of ALL the above tipsters went down…what does it prove ? pay peanuts – get monkeys…
To quote a punch-line from the ‘bai’ of a TV channel ( [ V ] )
‘itne paise may itnaich milenga’
6/29/2009
Indian vs foreign sires
all thoroughbreds in the world are the descendents of the 3 Arabian stallions brought to England in the later half of 18th. Century. Their offsprings gradually spread allover the globe and created thousand of sires and hundreds of sirelines in different countries including India. In the early part of 19th, century the sirelines and the stallions from England/Ireland were sought after, prized and had a virtual hegemony over the world thoroughbred indutry which continued till late 40’s of last century – with small hiccups produced by some French,American breeders and a Itallion called Federico Tessio who bred Nearco – the grandsire of Northern Dancer who ultimately changed the power center of the whole thoroughbred industry in the world..
In India during the 70’s alongwith imported stallions like Valoroso ( sire of legendary Squanderer) we had Grey Gaston , Riyahi, Everyday II etc. we had few Indian stallions like Red Rufus, Prince Khartoum and Prince Pradeep who sired many winners ,like Reprint (winner of 1000Guiness and Indian Oaks) and while foreign stallion bred, Squanderer was winning Indian Triple crown our Indian stallion bred were also winning important races like Reprint. Indian stallions did hold their position against the onslaught of imported stallions in mid 20th. Century in India, but gradually lost their hold against the imports and today while in USA in the list of 2000+ stallions, we hardly find more than 5% imports ; in India we have more than 95% imported stallions .
But ,this is not all ,none of the Indian stallion ,now, gets a quality (class I) mare to produce competitor and are literslly reduced to a laughing stock from the breeding stock !
Till mid 40’s exactly similar situation was prevailing in USA though their ‘local breds’ were regularly beating the progeny of ‘imported breds’. US breeders from 50’s switched over to their local stallions and the results are there for all to see . they have virtual monopoly over the world breeding scenario .
And where are we ? With almost 70 years of racing we can count Indian stallions on the fingers of one hand.
While Prince Pradeep got some of the good broodmares of his time and regularly produced classic winners, what did another recent Triple crown winner – Elusive Pimpernel or current sire Indictment was offered in their short career . Go through the records , the answer is all there , in black and white…
In India during the 70’s alongwith imported stallions like Valoroso ( sire of legendary Squanderer) we had Grey Gaston , Riyahi, Everyday II etc. we had few Indian stallions like Red Rufus, Prince Khartoum and Prince Pradeep who sired many winners ,like Reprint (winner of 1000Guiness and Indian Oaks) and while foreign stallion bred, Squanderer was winning Indian Triple crown our Indian stallion bred were also winning important races like Reprint. Indian stallions did hold their position against the onslaught of imported stallions in mid 20th. Century in India, but gradually lost their hold against the imports and today while in USA in the list of 2000+ stallions, we hardly find more than 5% imports ; in India we have more than 95% imported stallions .
But ,this is not all ,none of the Indian stallion ,now, gets a quality (class I) mare to produce competitor and are literslly reduced to a laughing stock from the breeding stock !
Till mid 40’s exactly similar situation was prevailing in USA though their ‘local breds’ were regularly beating the progeny of ‘imported breds’. US breeders from 50’s switched over to their local stallions and the results are there for all to see . they have virtual monopoly over the world breeding scenario .
And where are we ? With almost 70 years of racing we can count Indian stallions on the fingers of one hand.
While Prince Pradeep got some of the good broodmares of his time and regularly produced classic winners, what did another recent Triple crown winner – Elusive Pimpernel or current sire Indictment was offered in their short career . Go through the records , the answer is all there , in black and white…
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