Rashida - win
redford- eachway
captivating-win
gypsy magi- win
she's a lady-eachway
Friday, November 6, 2009
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
male vs female thoroughbred - a finding
My ambition is to create an even playing field for all the participants and in the attempt to achieve this aim , I sometime annoy and antagonize many powerful and influential sections of racing fraternity. But I don’t care because I neither live on their dole nor need their approval.
Many times on several occasions I’ve advocated that a female thoroughbred is as versatile and capable as a male one and tried to prove it by scientific methods (mitochondria et al) and by empirical methods proving that a mare ‘s average winning per year is as good as that of a champion sire in India !
To augment this point I would like to post following facts.
While updating my system I discovered that our notion of male superiority is wrong at least in the case of thoroughbreds! Here is the result of the preliminary findings.
Working on Pune track(monsoon as well as main) foe 1200m the winning percentage of female runners for different class for the period 1990- 2000(10 years) is as follows:
Class I – 25%
classII - 50%
class III - 68%
class IV – 56%
class A - 23%
3 yo only- 51%
Except Class I (top class) and Class A the ‘weaker’ sex wins more races than male thoroughbreds! The low percentage for these classes may be attributed to the fact that hardly any mare 5years+ will be running races in higher class because she is more useful in the breeding shed than on the race track leaving the field open to males . In the lowest class only worthless females may be left who are used for gambling at appropriate time rather than used to produce substandard progeny who mat y not find any takers.
But the most interesting point is performance of 3year olds where fillies have a slender lead and that fact must be noted carefully for future. Females mature faster than males – is a universal fact , in animal kingdom, including homo sapiens and the superior winning percentage of a 3 year old filly over 3 year old colt/gelding is a manifestation of that!
Will you buy that?
Many times on several occasions I’ve advocated that a female thoroughbred is as versatile and capable as a male one and tried to prove it by scientific methods (mitochondria et al) and by empirical methods proving that a mare ‘s average winning per year is as good as that of a champion sire in India !
To augment this point I would like to post following facts.
While updating my system I discovered that our notion of male superiority is wrong at least in the case of thoroughbreds! Here is the result of the preliminary findings.
Working on Pune track(monsoon as well as main) foe 1200m the winning percentage of female runners for different class for the period 1990- 2000(10 years) is as follows:
Class I – 25%
classII - 50%
class III - 68%
class IV – 56%
class A - 23%
3 yo only- 51%
Except Class I (top class) and Class A the ‘weaker’ sex wins more races than male thoroughbreds! The low percentage for these classes may be attributed to the fact that hardly any mare 5years+ will be running races in higher class because she is more useful in the breeding shed than on the race track leaving the field open to males . In the lowest class only worthless females may be left who are used for gambling at appropriate time rather than used to produce substandard progeny who mat y not find any takers.
But the most interesting point is performance of 3year olds where fillies have a slender lead and that fact must be noted carefully for future. Females mature faster than males – is a universal fact , in animal kingdom, including homo sapiens and the superior winning percentage of a 3 year old filly over 3 year old colt/gelding is a manifestation of that!
Will you buy that?
Thursday, October 29, 2009
class of a thoroughbred- some opinions
Performance , ratings and Class
Aboline (rating 93) won Bangalore summer Derby beating Jacqueline(90) by short head and many experts went gaga over this feat and exclaimed that class, merit and rating(of official handicapper) is the ultimate end of handicapping. This happened on 12 July 2009. One week later on 19 July 2009 a filly called Conceptual(89) beat Icebreaker (115) – twin classic winner by 7 long lengths- making all of them go motionless, speechless and incommunicado! Another example. Sparks(63) in Hyderabad monsoon Derby beats easily and convincingly many highly rated runners –Davenport(82), Fleet Indian(77), Red Renegade(84) – to name a few.
Handicapping a horse or a horse race is not an easy job, although handicappers are aplenty who sometimes under their name and many times under assumed names post their selections .
But I’m not discussing individuals (homo sapiens) here ,but trying to express my opinion about horse racing and its components . Class is one of the most important attribute (or aspect or factor or parameter ) of a race horse.
What is CLASS? It is the ‘racing ability’ of a thoroughbred to win a race.
Class is subtotal of pedigree (including breeding criterion ) , performance , current condition and some external influences which make a horse win or lose a race. I’ll give just one example of each before closing down this short exposition.
Pedigree: Abs Fabs(Burden of Proof- Sunny Clime) is a stayer ,everyone knows it today because she has won Mysore Derby and Kolkata Derby and placed in many classics . But before winning Mysore Derby she was made to run in some nondescript sprint races and only after she won Mysore Derby experts ‘discovered’ her staying ability and she ran Kolkata Derby as a favorite! Sprint Star is another classic example of this ignorance.
Performance : It is the subtotal of ALL past performances of at least last one or 1 ½ years and not only last 3 or 4 races. Trainers bring down the handicap of their wards by placing in unsuitable distance races till they are confident of winning a race and then place a runner and go ‘for a kill’ when everything is favorable . Innumerable examples can be cited to prove this point. Indian Dancer(Hyderabad-227), Generalissimo(Pune-204) are some recent examples of this trend.
Current condition :Mansoor – an Indian Derby winner after a year or two of his Derby win was made to run as 5 0r 6 year old in Calcutta and was running and losing class A races! Perhaps he lost in Class VB also!
A thoroughbred rarely can maintain his racing fitness for a long time spread over a racing career of 2 or 3 years. Very few trainers can maintain and improve the ‘racing fitness’ of their wards. If a runner is tracking well , comparable to his past work, he/she has every chance to win in ’his class’. Diego Rivera, Rhapsidion Snow, Oasis Star are some examples who confirm this point .Autonomy after losing in Indian Derby as second favorite ran only one race in Pune and ‘gave in’ meekly to Juventus in a 1600m race but ran a mock race in very fast time 13 days before Invitation cup. Antonios , ran 3 long distance races in 2 months prior to Invitation and was a bit jaded in that race and lost it .
Analyse the track of Fleet Indian before Mysore Derby and comparing it with his track before Hyderabad Derby it is clear that he has improved in the intervening period and with a better jockey his chance has improved . He did prove it.
Therefore, class of a thoroughbred can not be assessed by the number(rating) assigned to him/her but a broader view must be taken to identify his/her ‘true class’.
Aboline (rating 93) won Bangalore summer Derby beating Jacqueline(90) by short head and many experts went gaga over this feat and exclaimed that class, merit and rating(of official handicapper) is the ultimate end of handicapping. This happened on 12 July 2009. One week later on 19 July 2009 a filly called Conceptual(89) beat Icebreaker (115) – twin classic winner by 7 long lengths- making all of them go motionless, speechless and incommunicado! Another example. Sparks(63) in Hyderabad monsoon Derby beats easily and convincingly many highly rated runners –Davenport(82), Fleet Indian(77), Red Renegade(84) – to name a few.
Handicapping a horse or a horse race is not an easy job, although handicappers are aplenty who sometimes under their name and many times under assumed names post their selections .
But I’m not discussing individuals (homo sapiens) here ,but trying to express my opinion about horse racing and its components . Class is one of the most important attribute (or aspect or factor or parameter ) of a race horse.
What is CLASS? It is the ‘racing ability’ of a thoroughbred to win a race.
Class is subtotal of pedigree (including breeding criterion ) , performance , current condition and some external influences which make a horse win or lose a race. I’ll give just one example of each before closing down this short exposition.
Pedigree: Abs Fabs(Burden of Proof- Sunny Clime) is a stayer ,everyone knows it today because she has won Mysore Derby and Kolkata Derby and placed in many classics . But before winning Mysore Derby she was made to run in some nondescript sprint races and only after she won Mysore Derby experts ‘discovered’ her staying ability and she ran Kolkata Derby as a favorite! Sprint Star is another classic example of this ignorance.
Performance : It is the subtotal of ALL past performances of at least last one or 1 ½ years and not only last 3 or 4 races. Trainers bring down the handicap of their wards by placing in unsuitable distance races till they are confident of winning a race and then place a runner and go ‘for a kill’ when everything is favorable . Innumerable examples can be cited to prove this point. Indian Dancer(Hyderabad-227), Generalissimo(Pune-204) are some recent examples of this trend.
Current condition :Mansoor – an Indian Derby winner after a year or two of his Derby win was made to run as 5 0r 6 year old in Calcutta and was running and losing class A races! Perhaps he lost in Class VB also!
A thoroughbred rarely can maintain his racing fitness for a long time spread over a racing career of 2 or 3 years. Very few trainers can maintain and improve the ‘racing fitness’ of their wards. If a runner is tracking well , comparable to his past work, he/she has every chance to win in ’his class’. Diego Rivera, Rhapsidion Snow, Oasis Star are some examples who confirm this point .Autonomy after losing in Indian Derby as second favorite ran only one race in Pune and ‘gave in’ meekly to Juventus in a 1600m race but ran a mock race in very fast time 13 days before Invitation cup. Antonios , ran 3 long distance races in 2 months prior to Invitation and was a bit jaded in that race and lost it .
Analyse the track of Fleet Indian before Mysore Derby and comparing it with his track before Hyderabad Derby it is clear that he has improved in the intervening period and with a better jockey his chance has improved . He did prove it.
Therefore, class of a thoroughbred can not be assessed by the number(rating) assigned to him/her but a broader view must be taken to identify his/her ‘true class’.
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
horse racing - some controversies-some opinions
Horseracing is a complex game , where homo sapiens and thoroughbreds try to prove and disprove each other wrong!
A thoroughbred is an animal but a homo sapien is also one ,with a difference that homosapiens can program, control, manipulate the behaviour,performance and the final result of a race in which a thoroughbred participates. But he is a genuine specimen of his breed, while a homo sapien may not be - normally speaking .
Over a period of time many theories ,based on experience and observations have been put forward by racing experts about breeding, performance, weight,current form, pedigree, etc.
I'll write a short article ,supported by examples from Indian racing, to explain some of these points - which many punters fail to understand or account for in their analysis.
A thoroughbred is an animal but a homo sapien is also one ,with a difference that homosapiens can program, control, manipulate the behaviour,performance and the final result of a race in which a thoroughbred participates. But he is a genuine specimen of his breed, while a homo sapien may not be - normally speaking .
Over a period of time many theories ,based on experience and observations have been put forward by racing experts about breeding, performance, weight,current form, pedigree, etc.
I'll write a short article ,supported by examples from Indian racing, to explain some of these points - which many punters fail to understand or account for in their analysis.
Friday, October 23, 2009
Pune-last day
1)Midsummer Knight -place
2) Star Warrior - win
3)Phenomenale - win
4)Highland Glory - eachway
5)Mytihical-eachway
6)Excellent story- each way
2) Star Warrior - win
3)Phenomenale - win
4)Highland Glory - eachway
5)Mytihical-eachway
6)Excellent story- each way
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Mysore Derby Day 18/10/09
1) Amelia Cordell 2) Sprint Star are my choice which should win their respectivr races
Thursday, October 15, 2009
Mysore Derby -a preview
Mysore Derby contenders : A short Preview.
With 40+ entries it is saddening to see that only 7 have accepted to race confirming that horseracing has become a commercial game(sport).
I’ll analyse the chances of following runners only – one of which is likely to win this classic.
1) Fleet Indian
2) Messalina
3) Red Renegade
4) Sprint Star
Messalina (Alnasr Alwasheek-Palazzio) has an ‘inverted’ pedigree. By ‘inverted’ I mean that mostly the sire of a classic contestant is chosen as a sprinter/miler while the dam normally is a route runner or a stayer . In Messalina’s case it is ‘ulta’. The sire is a miler/ stayer who has produced several Derby winners while the dam is a confirmed sprinter/miler. But same was the case with Icebreaker (Alnasr Alwasheek- Iceberg) who won 2 races of 2400m and placed in Indian Derby. These ‘aberrations’- (I don’t consider them aberrations) in normal situations weaken the classical breeding theories. These anomalies if correlated with latest advances in genetic research will confirm that old presumptions, were not wrong. But this is not the time for technical discussions and let us concentrate on the racing prospect of the runner. Though a close scrutiny of Iceberg and Palazzio reveals a very close similarity and equality between their racing performance and pedigree components!
Messalina (Roman dosage: 10-1-9-4-0) clearly indicates that she can stay 2000m because her dosage is very similar to Icebreaker(12-1-11-4-0) and if Icebreaker can win 2 races of 2400m , Messalina can also win a race of 2000m! But these are conjectures borne out of similes which may or may not be true. We will analyse the pedigree a bit more carefully.
Alnasr Alwasheek, the sire of Messalina has produced two Indian Derby winners and
A number of black type winners. Sadlers Wells-paternal grandsire was a close second in French Derby(2400m)
Palazzio(8-3-8-0-1) though termed a sprinter has a strain of staying blood and will reinforce the staying traits of the sire enabling her to go the distance of 2000m. Palazzio’s dam – Stately Home(2-2-2-0-0) has won few regional classics at Ooty and Delhi and one of her son Rapier did place III in Indian Derby .Santiago(Hafir)(3-4-4-1-2) – sire of Stately Home reinforces the staying ability of Messalina.
Performance of Messalina on the race track had been eye catching. After winning a nondescript race during Bangalore summer she tried her luck in a grade 2 race(62) at Pune and ended second , 1 ½ lengths behind Sea Ruler who has beaten Cabriolet convincingly by conceding 3 kg. and Cabriolet lost Pune Derby by neck. She(Messalina) revealed her class in this defeat! She was 6 lengths behind the winner at 600m and ended 1 ½ lengths behind at the winning post. Correlate these dry facts and you may realize that she is one of the prime contender for the winning bracket . Of course her Hyderabad 1000G win only reinforces this observation.
Sprint Star( Ontario- Royal Retreat)-(3-1-6-4-0) is a funny name for a thoroughbred whose pedigree says that he is an outright stayer and not a sprinter! After his win in Colts Trial the connections gladly paid Rs. 10,00,000/- to enter him in the Bangalore Derby and lying last but one till600m ended VII, a neck behind Gypsy Magic.
Sprint Star is the son of Ontario(4-4-6-8-2) a hybrid of speed ,precociousness (Storm Cat, Storm Bird) coupled with endurance, stubbornness, durability (Bustino , Jim French). A strange genetic mix of speed (from Storm Cat and Storm Bird) and stamina and endurance (from Bustino and Jim French) has bestowed an acceleration and the ability to sustain it- provided it is exploited correctly, successfully and improved gradually. This was proved successfully when he won Mysore 2000Guineas. With Bustino’s staying capacity and Jim French’s indefatigable (he ran 11 races in 4 months- 10 of them Stakes races!) traits he is sure to make his adversaries sweat for every inch of the final furlong, provided he is ‘sincere’ unlike Bangalore Derby ! This race is a tossup between him and Messalina !
Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. His sire Bold Russian(8-5-8-8-1) and dam Afrodita(5-2-3-4-0) who did not race but did produce Brown Sugar (Hyderabad Derby Winner) and Arizza who placed III in Bangalore Oaks confirmed that staying 2000m or 2400m should be easy for him. But his performance belies his pedigree!
He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’sincerely’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) .But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 (Bangalore) and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. His ‘performance’ in Hyderabad Derby was another ‘repeat’ performance. From draw no 1 he led for first 50m and fell back to IV/V on rails till 800m moving with Fair Option and Sparks in mid bunch but moved out gradually to far out and while Sparks took turn 3 horse wide he was 8 ‘horse wide’ at bend and 2 ½ lengths behind Fair Option at 200m. Hard ridden now he ended Nk behind Fair Option and 3+ lengths behind the winner. If remained at rails in a soft going and waited he would have saved 3 to 4 lengths !
The connections and the rider may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon ! How he runs in Mysore Derby will be interesting to watch.
Red Renegade(9-3-15-0-1) won a 1600m race from start to finish in a reasonably good time and though his dam Sky Rocket has to show nothing to talk about but the grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced 2 very good stayers in Moment of Glory and beautiful Babe. He tried his luck in Hyderabad Monsoon Derby and was prominent till bend before fading out in the straight. Can he win Mysore Derby ? Maybe, I am not sure...
With 40+ entries it is saddening to see that only 7 have accepted to race confirming that horseracing has become a commercial game(sport).
I’ll analyse the chances of following runners only – one of which is likely to win this classic.
1) Fleet Indian
2) Messalina
3) Red Renegade
4) Sprint Star
Messalina (Alnasr Alwasheek-Palazzio) has an ‘inverted’ pedigree. By ‘inverted’ I mean that mostly the sire of a classic contestant is chosen as a sprinter/miler while the dam normally is a route runner or a stayer . In Messalina’s case it is ‘ulta’. The sire is a miler/ stayer who has produced several Derby winners while the dam is a confirmed sprinter/miler. But same was the case with Icebreaker (Alnasr Alwasheek- Iceberg) who won 2 races of 2400m and placed in Indian Derby. These ‘aberrations’- (I don’t consider them aberrations) in normal situations weaken the classical breeding theories. These anomalies if correlated with latest advances in genetic research will confirm that old presumptions, were not wrong. But this is not the time for technical discussions and let us concentrate on the racing prospect of the runner. Though a close scrutiny of Iceberg and Palazzio reveals a very close similarity and equality between their racing performance and pedigree components!
Messalina (Roman dosage: 10-1-9-4-0) clearly indicates that she can stay 2000m because her dosage is very similar to Icebreaker(12-1-11-4-0) and if Icebreaker can win 2 races of 2400m , Messalina can also win a race of 2000m! But these are conjectures borne out of similes which may or may not be true. We will analyse the pedigree a bit more carefully.
Alnasr Alwasheek, the sire of Messalina has produced two Indian Derby winners and
A number of black type winners. Sadlers Wells-paternal grandsire was a close second in French Derby(2400m)
Palazzio(8-3-8-0-1) though termed a sprinter has a strain of staying blood and will reinforce the staying traits of the sire enabling her to go the distance of 2000m. Palazzio’s dam – Stately Home(2-2-2-0-0) has won few regional classics at Ooty and Delhi and one of her son Rapier did place III in Indian Derby .Santiago(Hafir)(3-4-4-1-2) – sire of Stately Home reinforces the staying ability of Messalina.
Performance of Messalina on the race track had been eye catching. After winning a nondescript race during Bangalore summer she tried her luck in a grade 2 race(62) at Pune and ended second , 1 ½ lengths behind Sea Ruler who has beaten Cabriolet convincingly by conceding 3 kg. and Cabriolet lost Pune Derby by neck. She(Messalina) revealed her class in this defeat! She was 6 lengths behind the winner at 600m and ended 1 ½ lengths behind at the winning post. Correlate these dry facts and you may realize that she is one of the prime contender for the winning bracket . Of course her Hyderabad 1000G win only reinforces this observation.
Sprint Star( Ontario- Royal Retreat)-(3-1-6-4-0) is a funny name for a thoroughbred whose pedigree says that he is an outright stayer and not a sprinter! After his win in Colts Trial the connections gladly paid Rs. 10,00,000/- to enter him in the Bangalore Derby and lying last but one till600m ended VII, a neck behind Gypsy Magic.
Sprint Star is the son of Ontario(4-4-6-8-2) a hybrid of speed ,precociousness (Storm Cat, Storm Bird) coupled with endurance, stubbornness, durability (Bustino , Jim French). A strange genetic mix of speed (from Storm Cat and Storm Bird) and stamina and endurance (from Bustino and Jim French) has bestowed an acceleration and the ability to sustain it- provided it is exploited correctly, successfully and improved gradually. This was proved successfully when he won Mysore 2000Guineas. With Bustino’s staying capacity and Jim French’s indefatigable (he ran 11 races in 4 months- 10 of them Stakes races!) traits he is sure to make his adversaries sweat for every inch of the final furlong, provided he is ‘sincere’ unlike Bangalore Derby ! This race is a tossup between him and Messalina !
Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. His sire Bold Russian(8-5-8-8-1) and dam Afrodita(5-2-3-4-0) who did not race but did produce Brown Sugar (Hyderabad Derby Winner) and Arizza who placed III in Bangalore Oaks confirmed that staying 2000m or 2400m should be easy for him. But his performance belies his pedigree!
He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’sincerely’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) .But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 (Bangalore) and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. His ‘performance’ in Hyderabad Derby was another ‘repeat’ performance. From draw no 1 he led for first 50m and fell back to IV/V on rails till 800m moving with Fair Option and Sparks in mid bunch but moved out gradually to far out and while Sparks took turn 3 horse wide he was 8 ‘horse wide’ at bend and 2 ½ lengths behind Fair Option at 200m. Hard ridden now he ended Nk behind Fair Option and 3+ lengths behind the winner. If remained at rails in a soft going and waited he would have saved 3 to 4 lengths !
The connections and the rider may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon ! How he runs in Mysore Derby will be interesting to watch.
Red Renegade(9-3-15-0-1) won a 1600m race from start to finish in a reasonably good time and though his dam Sky Rocket has to show nothing to talk about but the grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced 2 very good stayers in Moment of Glory and beautiful Babe. He tried his luck in Hyderabad Monsoon Derby and was prominent till bend before fading out in the straight. Can he win Mysore Derby ? Maybe, I am not sure...
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