Indian Derby -2012 will be remembered for many unique reasons. First will be that there is no clear favorite and half of the field has more or less equal chance to win this race. But the most intriguing and almost unbelievably true , reason will be that the connections of the runners are still confused and unsure to select a jockey for their wards because a wrong choice and a wrong tactical move during the race will convert a probable winner into a loser!
Let us try to decipher this enigmatic race.
Out of 13 runners , I think that 7 or may be 8 runners have a chance to win the race and they are –ITSpotlight, Picasso, Pronto Pronto, Star Marquess, Hills & Stars, Smashing, Cardinal – not in any order of preference, and Ranthambore. Almost 8 out of 13! I could have added Field Marshal also, but tried to reduce the number of contestants! I’ll give a brief account of these runners , as per my observations, and follow it up by my opinionated (biased?) remarks. The pick up of the runners is random and not as per my personal choice. Ladies first , is the norm and I’m following that.
In the Spotlight(DOSAGE POINT 10-1-9-4-0) has won Kolkata Oaks in 1m 29.5s(PNR-1.3)and the Derby easing up in 2m32.8s(1.2cm.). she is not a late foal but a late starter – reason unknown . Her dam has won 2400m race and grand dam-Aroma has won/placed in 2000-2800m races . she is travelling well allover the country and winning grueling long distance races confirms that she is a frontline contender for this race . Being uncomfortable on the Mumbai track is a humbug opinion .
Smashing (4-5-13-2-0) has won Indian Oaks- thrashing her opponents hollow. Her sire is basically a sprinter –at the most a miler but that is the norm for most of the present day sires . you will hardly find a sire who is truly a stayer in the real sense. Her dam Exquisite(5-0-11-4-0) did not race ,though sired by Galileo – a top class sire and her grand dam Trois Graces(6-3-11-0-0) won only one race out of 12 starts. Smashing’s Oaks win , a slow run race does not strengthen her chance to win this Derby which should be run at a scorching pace- but does not exclude her also.
Hills & Stars(9-1-13-2-1) is a stayer in the real sense and though her dam – Altitude(9-2-8-1-0) did not race , her progeny – Flashing Star did win Bangalore winter Derby and was a short head second in Invitation Cup to his stable mate. She is the next best filly in the race.
Looking at the colts/geldings – let me start with Picasso.
Picasso(7-1-10-0-0) winner of PBMMillion had been a disappointment after this win and though he is out of Allies Serenade -a close 4th to Psychic Flame in All Ladies Indian Derby he is missing the winning bracket more often by his antics rather than by any bloodline weakness. Allies Seranade, RahysSeranade, Allied forces, Sooni are all stamina providers to their runner and Derby distance should not be a problem for him. Black Cash may be lacking in stamina but his ancestors do not lack it. He is only male who can challenge and maybe defeatPronto Pronto provided jockey uses correct tactical move.
Pronto Pronto(4-3-15-0-0) is another example of incomplete assessment of a thoroughbred’s capability vis-à-vis speed and stamina parameters by ignoring the contribution of the female in the performance. While inbreeding is common and widely practiced in thoroughbred breeding it is a taboo for homo sapiens. But when the father and mother are accomplished in a field the offspring normally performs well ,confirming, breed the best to the best! PP seems (or is he?) to be as lazy as Squanderer –though does not belong to his class and always wins by small margins to confuse the analysts about his ability. He should be among the top 3 on the board.
Star Marquess(7-3-14-0-0) is one of the best stayer in this group – perhaps the best stayer . His dam Mawaheb(15-7-12-2-2) has won only one race but that was a 2200m race. His sire Intikhab has won Queen Ann Stakes(1600m) at Royal Ascot thrashing his rivals by 8 lengths in a very good time . Intikhab does not like soft going – was it the reason of improved performance of his progeny( Star Marquess) at Mumbai where surface is hard and going is mostly ‘good to fast’. Indian Derby should provide the answer to this question. He is a contender –definitely.
Cardinal (12-3-10-0-1) winner of Ruia cup is by Haunting Beauty dam of Six Speed who during her racing career has beaten Allaire – a stayer ,every time upto 1600m but lost to her beyond that -also every time. Though his performance in 2000G is commendable and exceptional in Ruia cup ,he may find it difficult at 2400m.
Now a fluke – called Ranthambore(4-3-7-0-0). His win –rider looking back and easing at 200m ,still winning 1600m in 1m 37.5s comparable to winning time of 1000G and 2000G gives him an edge that bring a Mohawk to the fore. Stay he can – winning though may be difficult but is not impossible because there is no outstanding runner in the field.
Final analysis – the winner may be one of the following :
In the spotlight-Picasso-Pronto Pronto- Hills & Stars -Star Marquess .
Who he/she will be – probably decided by the tactics and the luck of the race…
1/31/2012
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