last day of the year-Mumbai

1) 2-1-3
2) (4-2)
3) (6-2-1)
4) 3-4
5) 5-6-2
6) 2-3-4
7) (7-1-2)

pl remember , if the favorite is less than 5/10 I'll bet 2UNITS henceforth

Appraisal -II

Bit late because I post my 'performance appraisal' on Tuesdays and today is Wednesday!
A very bad week and first time I've gone in'Red'!
I've given selections , in this week for Bangalore(25/12), Mumbai(27/12) and Hyderabad(28/12) .

Following is the 'progress report'
BANGALORE - 25/12/09
Race no. I(-1) , II(-1), III(-1), IV(+2), V(-3), VI(-1), VII(+ 18/10-3), VIII( + 9/2- 2), tax (-1.2) = +8.3 - 13.2 = -4.9

MUMBAI-27/12/09
I (0- no tip), II(0-no tip), III(-1), IV(-1), V(+5/4-2), VI(-2), VII(+8/10-2), VIII(+5/4 after 30% deduction), IX (+12/10) , tax(-1.2)...... Net+4.50-9.20 = - 4.70

HYDERABAD- 28/12/09
I (-1), II(-1), III(+1), IV(+13/4-2), V(-2), VI(-1), VII(+7/2), tax(-1.0)
Net result +7 3/4 - 8 = - 1/4

final result = -4.90 - 4.70 -0.25 (+ 4.50- earlier winnings) = - 5.35 !!!

we have lost the advantage and gone in RED!

Betting on every race is dangerous - but we can not 'walk-out'
We'll try and try to go to'black'...

TRIPLE CROWN

Races for Indian Triple Crown are well-known. Long ago , I opined that Set Alight can win it - it was written on a website much before Indian 1000G was run , many 'experts' made fun of it 'after' the races were run. They use 'selective' memory to gloat over their remarks. But that is ' passe'.

Jacqueline has already won Indian 2000G and has the potential , capability, pedigree , performance to win Indian Trple Crown unless 'interested parties' think otherwise because horseracing in India is not run on merit but on money,benefit,future rewards etc. Winning a Derby or a classI race has no meaning to a owner/rider/trainer, otherwise - a Southern Empire and afilly called Set Alight - just to name a few , would not have lost Indian Derby.

Full stop.

HYDERABAD - 28 DEC 09

1) 9-6-4
2) 8-6-2
3) 4
4)(1-2-6)
5)(5-7)-4
6) 4
7) 3-4-2

MUM/HYD 27/12./09

MUM
1)XXXXXXXXXXX
2)XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
3)4-6-1
4)5-1-2
5)(5-7-3)_
6(2-3)- 1
7) (3-8-9)
8)1-2-6
9)1-3-5

HYD - NIL

Bangalore -X'mas party?

yesterday was bookies' day and today also they will have upper hand ...
save money for the festival!

1) (1-7)-3
2) 3-8-4
3) 5-7-3
4) 6-5-8
5)(9-3-1)
6)12-9-1
7) (7-1-2-3)
8) (9-8-11)

why punters lose money

Why punters do not win much at races ?

Because they think that the money they bet is their money and their decision (selection) can not be questioned (correct)…
Their thinking is right, because it is their money – but their decision/(s) may not be right…

I keep experimenting on my handicapping methods and introduce them in an innocuous way to the racing ‘pundits’ occasionally. I did it on IR.com during 2004/2005 and 2007 and also on IHRB forum during summer 2007…
I offered tips on Turfparrot.com under this plan in March/April 2008 and if someone among you would have believed in my ‘handicapping ability’ he would have won more than Rs. 1,30,000/-…

How ?

I started with Fleeting Arrow(3/1) on 29 Mar08 followed by Noble Prince (5/2) on 30 Mar08 and then on 5 Apr08 selected Absolute Reality(7/2) followed by Dancing Glory (16/10 – 20% = 13/10) on 6 Apr 08…

Only one tip for the day with unambiguous opinion…

A ROLL of Rs. 1000/- on these 4 tips will give a return of more than Rs.1,36,000/- (10% tax) or Rs.1,23,000/- (26% tax) within 9 days…

Sometimes, following others( stupid blabbers) also pays…


But the icing on the cake is the following tête-à-tête on the same site between me and the readers…(only a part is reproduced)



Userid
:
chanakya (Guest)
Reply
:
thanks to all for the kind words...I will try to post regularly about big events...well goldbug,after more than a year I have notseen you...
Date/Time
:
31/03/08 21:43:18




Userid
:
chanakya (Guest)
Reply
:
R Bijlani did predict clearly that F Arrow isbetter than others in IHRB forum before me but Ican not post my'free' selections before 11am...
Date/Time
:
01/04/08 23:39:40



Userid
:
tonguencheek (Guest)
Reply
:
WELL DONE!!!!CANT GET BETTER THAN THIS .
Date/Time
:
29/03/08 18:39:16



chanakya (Guest)
Fleeting Arrow
29/03/08 11:34:14 am
Fleeting Arrow should win from archipenko in atight finish... based purely on past performance ,speed rating,track surface(not TW) , only...
Userid
:
milo (Guest)
Reply
:
Well done you called it correctly again just likethe bangalore million.
Date/Time
:
30/03/08 18:30:36




Userid
:
goldbug
Reply
:
chanakyaji,you are making this a habit.keep it up.
Date/Time
:
31/03/08 17:37:24



Userid
:
chanakya (Guest)
Reply
:
yr appetite seems to be too big...my choice - Absolute Reality - was 7/2 at Mumbai...very good and reasonable odds...
Date/Time
:
06/04/08 11:52:08




chanakya (Guest)
St. Leger
30/03/08 10:52:08 am
Noble Prince runs off pace , but if can be brought within 3 to 4 lengths of the leader at 600 can win this race fromS Success and Yana... positioning at 600 to 5oo will decide the final outcome...

chanakya (Guest)
Dancing Glory
06/04/08 12:25:52 pm
Dancing Glory should win his race...


Userid
:
Prakash (Guest)
Reply
:
With Belose riding it, its a guessing game. Anyother rider & I would have my full bet.
Date/Time
:
06/04/08 13:22:25




chanakya (Guest)
Absolute Reality and Cavaradosi
05/04/08 12:22:58 pm
today all races are open and competitive andnon-favorites seem to have the upper hand... Absolute Reality may beat/lose by whisker from Cavaradosi... I'll still prefer A Reality...


Userid
:
chalukya (Guest)
Reply
:
there ws no third horse in the race.made your jobsimpler.Chankya ji try to give us some long pricedwinners.
Date/Time
:
05/04/08 22:35:19




Userid
:
chanakya (Guest)
Reply
:
yr appetite seems to be too big...my choice - Absolute Reality - was 7/2 at Mumbai...very good and reasonable odds...
Date/Time
:
06/04/08 11:52:08

I;m sure some of you might have read it earlier on TurfParrot.com . I gave 12 tips from 30/3/08 till 3/5/08 and 10 of them have won while 2 failed .

But that is not the point I want to make. The suspicion, doubt- on the ability of others makes a punter lose money by betting on false favorites created by phony tipsters .

In this game ,no one is expert, though some are knowledgeable; because the horse does not win or lose a race but he is made to win or lose by those homo sapiens who own/train/ride him.

Appraisal - I

This will be my 'interest' for next few months. now I'll concentrate on Cat III races!!!

Let me remind the reader my method of calculating the win/loss account in this system of betting. When my selection is 3-5-1, it means that I prefer my first choice no 3 and will consider win/loss on this choice only ; (3-5)-1 means I’ll bet equal amount onboth the choices 3&5; (3-5-1) means I’ll bet equal amount on all the three choices 3,5 &1. I’ve calculated my win/loss under this rule till date and will follow it in future too.

I will calculate the win/loss by using bookmakers(Mumbai) odds against the race number in roman numerals ,e.g., III ( 6-2) means race number 3 and our selection have won at 6/1 and in the same race we lost our other 2 choices. For example, in race no. 3 our selection was (3-5-1) and horse no 1 won the race at odds of 6/1 then our result will show III(6-1-1) = +4 . I hope, I’ve explicitly clarified my system of ‘earning’ by betting on ‘all the races’ of the day!


Coming back to the battle ground. We have won + 1.1 units till 13 December 09 and we will start from there only.

Next day was Bangalore – 18 Dec 09. Following is the result of our efforts:
I(-1), II(-1), III(-1), IV(+ 5/2), V(-1), VI(-1), VII(-3), VIII(+12-4), tax(-1.4)
Net profit/loss = 14.50- 13.40 = + 1.10

Now we move on to 20 Dec 09 – Mumbai & Hyderabad.

Mumbai – 20 December 09
I(0 – no tip), II(-2), III(+13/10-1), IV(4/10), V(-1), VI (-1), VII(-1), VIII(+6-2), IX(+7/2-2), X(-1), XI(-2), XII(+6/4), tax (-1.8)
Net profit/loss = +12.65 – 14.8 = - 2.15


Hyderabad – 20 December 09

I(+1), II(-1), III( -1), IV(+6-2), V(+11/2), VI(+9/4), VII(-1), VIII(-1),
IX(-3), tax(-1.3)
Net profit/loss = +14.75 – 10.3 = 4.45

NET EARNINGS TILL DATE UNDER CATEGORY III
+1.10(till 13Dec) +1.10(Bng-18Dec) – 2.15(Mumbai -20Dec) +4 .45(Hyd 20Dec) = +4.50

What does this indicate ?

Betting during more than one month, on almost every race on every day at Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad on about 200+ races you can still win !!!

Appraisal - I

MUMBAI AND HYDERABAD - 20/12/09

MUMBAI
Cat III
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(7-1)-8
(2-8)-5
3-1
5
9-5-1
8-7-4
(1-16-15)
(8-7-1)
11-8-3
(4-8)-1
3-1-4


HYDERABAD
3
3-8-4
8-3-5
(1-6-7)
3-1-2
5-4-1
7-13-3
1-3-7
(6-1-14)

I HAVE DONE IT !

I've started posting racing tips for ALL category of punters- those who bet on few races ,those who bet on many races and also for those who bet on ALL races . Though after a month all the 3 categories have given a positive return - it is the first category ,betting on 2 or 3 races in a day ,which has produced 'stupendous' returns and results.

Till 13 December 09 betting on our selections in Cat I we have earned a profit of Rs.44,100/-

Today, in Cat I our selections gave following returns :

Brunetta-W...1000...................0...........................(1000)
SThomas-EW 1000/2000......3500/3200........3700
AFire-EW....3800/7600......0/19000................7600
Tax......................................................................(1540)
Net Profit.......................................................+8760

today's profit+earlier profit=8760+44100 adds to give us a NET PROFIT of Rs. 52,860/-

Therefore, in a period of one month and one week we have ACHIEVED our GOAL!!!

WE HAVE WON 250% PROFIT ON OUR INITIAL RISK CAPITAL WITHOUT EVER LOSING OUR INITIAL CAPITAL!!!
JAI HO...

Bangalore - 18 Dec 09

Cat I
Brunetta-W
Silken Thomas-EW
Anglefire-EW
if she does not win then TRAINER AND JOCKEY MUST BE X-RAYED!
cAT - ii
ABOVE
Chintz-EW
Anglefire-EW
Cat III
9-4-1
1-4-7
1-10-6
1-3-5
3-10-7
1-6
(1-11-2)
{1-2-4-9-3}

Performance Appraisal-III-an achievement

PERFORMANCE APPRAISAL – PART – III
One of my friend advised me to place a summarized analysis of my tips because the details are available on the site . My reply was that for a skeptical reader I’ve to provide the under mentioned info to prove my credentials (! ?) . Of course, it does provide a clear picture of my performance and the efforts.
This is the finale and I’ve to tell the final truth! I must start from 29th November – the date I ended the part II of my experiment, or research or exposition or the effectiveness of my system of handicapping.

29 November 09 - MUMBAI
Cat - I
B Spectacle-EW.. 1000/2000….0/4000…….1000
Cabriolet-W…..1000……2000…………….1000
La’dama-W……1000…..2000……………..1000
Tax………………………………………….(500)
Net Profit…………………………………+2000
Cat – II
R M’mories-W..1000…….1500…………..500
Tyumen-P.1200…………3000……………1800
Spica-EW 1900/3800…..5700…………….(5700)
Juventus…1000…………..0……………..(1000)
L’dama-W1000…………2000…………..1000
Tax…………………………………………(990)
Net Loss………………………………..(4390)
Cat – III
Net Loss…………………………… (-) 2.85
29 December - HYDERABAD
Cat –I
M Express-W..1000…0……………(1000)
C Ploy-W…..1000……..0………….(1000)
Tax…………………………..(200)
Net Loss …………………….(2200)
Cat – II
M E’ress-W..1000……….0……..(1000)
A Sq’re –EW1000/2000…0/3000…0
SAct-EW1000/2000…0/7000….4000
CPloy-W.3000……….0……….(3000)
Tax………………………………(1000)
Net Loss…………………………(1000)
Cat –III
Net Loss………………….(-) 10.70

03 December 09 – MUMBAI
Cat – I
Ari’cal-W….1000……..4000……..3000
Ares-EW.. 2500/5000…25000/19500…30000
Attila-W…16000…..29600………13600
Tax…………………………………(2450)
Net Profit………………………. + 44150
Cat –II
A’cal…1000…………4000………3000
S’light….2500/5000…0………….(7500)
Ares-EW 1000/2000…10000/5500…12500
Attila-W.7250……..13370………..6120
Chanakya-P..4000…..6800……….2800
Tax……………………………...(2275)
Net Profit…………………….... + 14 645
Cat – III
+ 14 645
Cat – III
Net Profit……………………..+ 2.5

04 December 09 -BANGALORE
Cat – I
NIL
Cat – II
T’mosis-EW..1000/2000….0/3200….200
MM’ries-EW..1000/2000…0……….(3000)
CP’rate-P…….1000……….0……….(1000)
Green/AD’tiny1000/1000….0/4000…2000
Tax…………………………………. (900)
Net Loss………………………… (2700)
Cat – III
Net Loss……………………………..(-)2.5

05 December 09 - BANGALORE
Cat – I
Aprillia-W 1000…………1500…......500
APrem-EW 1200/2400…4200/3840…4440
S’Land-P(5/2).. 3200…10700………7500
O’nality-W……4800…..0………….(4800)
Tax………………………………..(1260)
Net Profit…………………………+6380
Cat – II
A’llia-W..1000………….1500…….500
SQueen-W..1200………1920……….720
APrem-EW 1400/2800..4900/4480…5180
SLand-P..3600……….12600……..9000
O’nalit-W.5500………..0………….(5500)
Tax………………………………..(1450)
Net Profit……………………….. +8450
Cat – III
Profit……………………………+ 13.6

06 December 09- MUMBAI
Cat – I
HCrown-W 1000……..1800…………800
Churchill-W 1400……..2800…………1400
Tax……………………………………(240)
Net Profit…………………………. + 1960
Cat – II
FArrow-W1000………..0……………(1000)
HCrown-W 1000…….1800………….800
RGlory-EW 1400/2800…..0………….(4200)
SEmpire-W.1000……..1600…………..600
Churchill-W1300……….2600…………1300
HDolly……1600……….3600………….2000
Tax……………………………………..(1010)
Net Loss……………………………….(-)1510
Cat – III
Net Profit…………………………….. +0.2


10 December 09- MUMBAI
Cat – I
TThunder-W 1000……………0………..(1000)
HMorgan-EW1000/2000…..0/3200………200
RCloud-P1000……………..0……………(1000)
Tax………………………………………(500)
Net Loss…………………………………(2300)
Cat – II
DP’ple-P 1000……………1700…………700
TThunder-W 1300………....0……………..(1300)
KChing-EW1000/2000….6000/4400……7400
RCloud-W4700…………….0……………(4700)
Tax………………………………………..(1000)
Net Prifit…………………………………..+1120
Cat – III
Net Loss…………………………………..(-) 4.6

12 December 09- BANGALORE
Cat – I
SThomas-EW 1000/2000……0…………….(3000)
SStar-W 1000……………2100………………..1100
GFluid-EW 1500/3000……0………………….(4500)
Tax………………………………………………(850)
Net Loss……………………………………….(7250)

Cat – II
GCrown-W1000…………….0……………(1000)
Sherdil-P1000……………….0…………….(1000)
SThomas-EW1000/2000…….0……………(3000)
CRose-W.1000……………..2100…………1100
SStar-W 1500……………….3150…………1650
GFluid-EW1800/3600……….0…………….(5400)
Tax………………………………………….(1290)
Net Loss……………………………………(11690)

Cat - III
Net Profit………………………………….+10.1

13 December 09 – MUMBAI

Cat – I
A’bridge-P 1000……………0…………….(1000)
Batista-W(13/4) 1000………4250…………3250
Jacqueline-W..2600…………5720…………3120
COLuck-P……1000…………1900…………900
Maverick-P(6/10) 3000……..4800…………..1800
Tax…………………………………………..(860)
Net Profit………………………………….+ 7210
Cat – II
A’bridge-P1000……….0………………(1000)
B’tista-W..1000……….4250…………..3250
Spitz-P…2600…………….0…………….(2650)
J’line-W…1000………….2200…………..1200
COLuck-P…1000………..1900…………..900
Messlina-P….1000……….0………………(1000)
M’rick-P…..1500…………2400…………..900
Tax…………………………………………(910)
Net Profit…………………………………. +740

Cat – III
Net Profit……………………………………+4.0


13 December 09 – HYDERABAD
Cat – I
SSenora-W ..1000………….0…………….(1000)
KDelight-EW1000/2000…….0/3200……….200
Tax…………………………………………(400)
Net Loss……………………………………(1200)
Cat – II
Rosemead-W..1000…………0……………..(1000)
KDelight-EW1000/2000……0/3200………..200
JGalt-W1000……………….3000……………2000
Tax……………………………………………(500)
Net Profit………………………………………+700
Cat – III
Net Loss……………………………………..(-) 6.8

This brings us at the end of one month of extensive effort to try to win races at different racecourses and to satisfy all type of punters – those who play few races, those who play many races and even those who want to play every race of the day. The result of win/loss date-wise for all the three categories is summarized below . 1511 means 15November and H,M,B stand for Hyderabad, Mumbai and Bangalore. Winning amount is prefixed by + sign and loss is enclosed in a bracket .

Cat – I
1511(H) – 2011(B) –2111 (B) –2211(M)—2211(H)
(1100)…. +200… (1100)…… (1100)…… (1100)..

2411(H)--2611(M)--2811(B)--2911(H)—29 11(M)
(1100)…. +550 …… +100…. (2200)….. +2000

0312(M)—0412(B)--0512(B)—0612(M)--1012(M)
+44150…. NIL…… +6380…. +1960…. .(2300)

1212(B)—1312((H)—1312 (M)
(7250)…. (1210)…… +7210

NET PROFIT = 62550-18450 = +Rs.44,100/-

Cat – II
Upto1411—1511(H)—2011(B)—2111(B)—2211(M)
+9020…….+1130…….+5180…..(3320)……+2850

2211(H)—2411(H)—2611(M)—2811(B)—2911(H)
(3000)…… (2000)…..(2750)….. +1400…. +5200…

2911(M)—2911(H)—0312 (M)—0412(B)—0512(B)
(4390)……+5200….. +14645…. (2700)….. +8450…

0612(M)—1012(M)—1212(B)—1312(M)—1312(H)
(1510)….. +1120…… (11690)…. + 740…… +700

NET PROFIT = 50435 – 31360 = + Rs.19,075/-


Cat -III
2011(B)-2111(B)-2211(M)-2211(H)-2411(H)-2611(M)
+0.55…(9.60)……+3.5……(2.60)….+6.15….(1.55)

2811(B)-2911(H)-2911(M)-0312-(M)-0412(B)-0512(B)
(0.3)…..(10.70)…..(2.85)……+2.5….(2.5)…+13.60

0612(M)-1012(M)-1212(B)-1312(H)-1312(M)
+0.2……(2.6)…….+10.1….(5.8)……+4.0

NET PROFIT= 40.60 – 39.50 = 1.10

Following conclusions can be drawn from the above results .

1)The MYTH that you can not win from races is WRONG
2)The MYTH- you CAN NOT win playing ALL races is WRONG
3)The MYTH-to be a winner – play only 1 or 2 races is WRONG
4)The MYTH-YOU CAN NOT LIVE ON EARNINGS OF RACES IS WRONG
5)Follow a well reasoned out plan to be a winner
6)Follow a good handicapping system
7)Do not waiver if you lose, and do not be greedy if you win

Hyderabad - 13 /12/09

Cat I
Star Sensor_W
K Delight-EW
Cat II
Rosemead-W
Kohinoor Delight-EW
John Galt-W
Cat III
xxxxxxxxxxxxx
XXXXXXXXXXX
(3-7-1)
2-1-7
8-2-1
1-3-2
4-1-7
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
1-3-4

Mumbai- 13 Dec 09

MUMBAI
Cat I
AShbridge-P
Batista-W
Jacqueline_w
Change Of Luck-P
Maverick-P
Cat II
all above in Cat I
Spitz-P
Messalina-P
CatIII
3-6
(4-1)
(5-4)
4-3
1-6-9
7-4-8
8-3-10
(2-4)-3

12 December 2009

Cat I
Aboline(Kolkata)-W
Silken Thomas-EW
Sprit Star-W
Gara Fluid_EW
Cat II
Gold Crown-W
Sherdil-P
S Thomas-EW
C Rose-W
S Star-W
G Fluid-EW
Cat III
(8-5)-7
1-3-10
9-3-2
(7-12--2
(3-4-5)
(10-3-5)
10-9-5
4-10-3
(12-2)- 1

12 December 2009

Performance Appraisal- part II

Performance Appraisal – Part II

After posting performance appraisal –part I, I expected a rejoinder from some sincere and interested race-goers but none came, indicating the opportunism, a trait, which the human race – to which all punters belong, has perfected! What I started in good faith was to break the MYTHS and the IGNORANCE associated with horserace betting(you may call it - punting or gambling) . I have read and will be reading in future , on many well entrenched web-sites- many ‘sob stories’ ( to improve their TRP) about the loss suffered by an anonymous or fake-name punter – who lost millions in last few years/months and want to recover it. Well-meaning(!) responses will advise him what to do . The ‘natak’(drama) – ad infinitum, will be repeated at regular intervals to keep the game going! I pity those who run this kind of show and pity MORE, THOSE WHO PAY TO THESE PEOPLE TO RUN THIS KIND OF FAKE SHOW!

Let the God’s mercy and grace be with them…Amen…

I was to start the part II of my experiment, adventure or self actualization (management terminology) but due to some personal obligations delayed it. Discarding everything , let me start afresh , which is finding out our ‘wins and losses’. We have calculated our win/loss till 22 Nov for Mumbai but Hyderabad was to be added . Starting from there,
I wonder, if you have the patience to read all this! But to maintain record and to ‘prove’ my point ,I’ve no other option.
HYDERABAD 22 Nov 09
CatI
Messalina-W….1000………0………(1000)
Tax……………………………………(100)
Net Loss……………………………(1100)
Cat II
Manduro-EW 1000/2000…0……(3000)
Cyget-EW-1000/2000…….0…….(3000)
Messalina-W..1000………0…….(1000)
CHJ’tha-EW1000/2000 ..2000/3000.. 5000
Tax………………………………….(1000)
Net Loss…………………………(3000)
CatIII( from 4th race)
(1-9)-5…….2….. 1-1…….0
3-4-5……..1…….+5/4…..+5/4
(4-8-1)……3…….. – 3…… -3
(2-5-3)…….3……..1 ¼- 2…. -3/4
6-2-1………1……0…….. -1
1-2-4………1……+2……..+2
tax………………………… -1.1
Net Profit/(loss)……………. – 2.60.
HYDERABAD 24 NOV 09
Cat I
Orient Glory-W 1000…….0……..(1000)
Tax………………………………..(100)
Net Loss…………………………(1100)
Cat II
O Glory-W 1000…….0………..(1000)
Sc’baroo-W 1000…....0…………(1000)
L’shire –EW 1000/2000…0/3500…500
Tax……………………………….(500)
Net Loss……………………….(2000)
Cat III
3-5-4xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx….0
4-1-6………1……..0…………… -1
6-7-2……….1……..0……………. -1
6-8-3………1……….0…………… -1
3-5-11……..1……..+2 ½…………+1 ½
8-10-2…….1……..0…………….. -1
(2-7-1)……3……..+1 ¾-2……….. -1/4
(3-9)-10…..2…….10-1…………….9
6-2-5………1…….+1…………… +1
tax………………………………..-1.1
Net Profit………………………..+ 6.15
MUMBAI 26 NOV 09
Cat I
FFlare-W..1000…….1650……..650
Net Profit……………………….550
Cat II
Nymph-W …1000…….0………..(1000)
A’ridge-EW.1000/2000…0/3200….200
PR’tion-W..1000……2300……….1300
FFlare-W.1000………1650………650
Saffron-EW..100/2000….0……….(3000)
Tax……………………………….(900)
Net Loss…………………………(2750)
Cat III
3-7-9 …….1……….0…………. -1
1………….1………..0…………. -1
3-4……….1………..18/10………+8/10
7-3-2……..1…………0…………… -1
3………….1…………12/10……….. +2/10
(6-7-3)……3…………+1 ¾-2…………-1/4
(1-7-8)……3………..+7/10-2………….-13/10
4-3-9………1………….0………………… -1
2-4-10……..1…………+3 ¼…………….+3 ¼
tax……………………………………….- 1.3
Net Loss…………………………… - 1.55

BANGALORE 28 NOV 09
Cat I
G Magic-W…1000……….0………………..(1000)
Aristo-EW.1000/2000……0/4500………….1500
Tax………………………………………….(400)
Net Profit……………………………………..+100
Cat II
GTDancer-W 1000……….0…………………..(1000)
GDancer-W1000…………0…………………..(1000)
GMagic-W1000…………..0…………………(1000)
AP’naire-EW 1000/2000…3500/3000……..3500
Tax…………………………………………..(600)
Net loss………………………………………..(100)
Cat III
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(2-3)-8……..2…………..0……………. -2
2-3-4………1……………0…………….-1
1-3-8……….1……………0…………….- 1
(1-2-6)……..3………….6-2…………….+4
8-3-2……….1………….3……………….+3
3-4………….1…………0………………..-1
8-2-6……….1…………..0………………... -1
(2-3-5)……...3…………2-2…………………0
tax…………………………………….. – 1.3
Net Loss…………………………………. -0.3
I think that I may have to put rest of the calculations in part III and will explain how within 20 days I have won more than Rs. 47,000 in Cat I which is just Rs. 3000/- short of my target of winning Rs. 50,000 with a capital investment of Rs. 20,000/- I will try to achieve it before 15 December . Perhaps, it may be possible.

Mumbai 10 Dec 09

Cat I
Track Thunder- W
Hazel Morgan - EW
Red Cloud - P
Cat II
Deep Purple-P
Track Wonder-W
Ka Ching-EW
Red Cloud-P
Cat III
1-2-4
6-7-2
6-7-2
(9-6-2)
12-2-10
1-5-7
(2-6)-1

Performance Appraisal - Part I

A rare achievement!!!

Offering tips on horse racing is not the primary aim of my writings – I’ve mentioned it many times on this blog and at many other places. Out of 25+ topics, tipping occupies 18th position in my list of priority subjects. I, therefore, reluctantly started posting tips to keep the blog ‘alive’, because posting an article needs time, study and lot of efforts.

Started as a ‘filler’ the exercise and the efforts have produced fantastic and unexpected results. I’ve tried to cater to all categories of punters, by posting 3 different categories of tips and the results are there for all to see. We have already analysed our performance till 14Nov and will start this analysis from that date only. I’ve not tipped for Cat I and Cat III till 14 Nov and in Cat II our NET PROFIT was Rs. 9020/-betting @Rs. 1000/-(at 10% tax). It was discussed in my earlier article.

From 15 Nov09 our performance is analyzed hereunder.

HYDERABAD - 15 NOVEMBER 09
Cat I
Name(odds)- investment – --return - -- profit/ ( loss)
Tristar-W ……….1000……….zero……(1000)
Tax………………………………………..(100)
NET LOSS…………………………………(1100)
Cat II
G Light-W(19/10)-1000……….2900……1900
KOCourt-P(7/10)-2000………..3400…….1400
Tristar –W- 1700………..0…………(1700)
Tax………………………………………….(470)
NETPROFIT…………………………. + 1130


BANGALORE – 20 NOV
Cat I
D’Artagnan-W(3/10)….1000…..1300…….300
Tax………………………………………….(100)
NET PROFIT………………………………+200
Cat II
G Fluid-P(2/1) ..1000…….3000…………..2000
SChaser-EW..1500/3000....6000/4800……6300
Alviano-W …3000…………0…………….(3000)
D’A’nan-W..1000………….1300…………300
Sherdil-P(5/4)..1200……….2700…………1500
Tax………………………………………….(1070)
NET PROFIT……………………………. +5030
Cat III
(1-8)-4…….2……… +5/4 – 1……………..+1/4
1-6-2……….1………..0……………… .- 1
(8-1)-3………2………+3-1……………….+2
1-2-4…………1………..0………………… -1
1-6-8………….1……….+3/10…………… +3/10
6-9-4………….3……… +4 ¾ - 2……… + 2 ¾
(2-6)-1……….2……….. – 2…………… -2
tax……………………………………… -1
NET PROFIT……………………………. + ¼

21 NOV 09 : BANGALORE:
Cat I
Red Renegade-W …..1000……0…….(1000)
Tax…………………………………….(100)
NET LOSS ------------------------------- (1100)
Cat II
N Sacrifice-EW.1000/2000…..0…… (3000)
BPride-P 1000………………3500….2500
ResRenegade-W 1000……0………..(1000)
Tax…………………………………. (620)
NET LOSS ………………………….(3320)
Cat III
2-3-1….1…………..0……………… -1
1-6-5…..1………….0……………….. -1
3-9-8…...1………….0……………….-1
2-3-8……1…………0………………..-1
12-11-6….1…………0……………….-1
3-12-2 Open..3……+1 ½ - 2…………..-1/2
7-5-1 Open…3………..0……………… -3
tax……………………………………… -1.1
NET LOSS………………………... -9.60

MUMBAI - 22 NOV 09
Cat I
S Ruler-W…1000……….1300………..300
RDRay-W….1200……….0……………(1200)
Tax…………………………………….(220)
Net Loss……………………………….(1120)
Cat II
SRuler-W…1000…….1300…………300
RDRay-W…1200……0…………….(1200)
A Champ-W..1000……8000……….7000
R Dragon-W..4500……0………….(4500)
Bemissal-P..1000……..1600……….600
Tax……………………………….(1050)
Net Profit………………………….+ 1150
Cat III
3-1-4open-…….....3………..8/10-2……… - 12/10
2-6-3……………...1……….3/10……………. +3/10
2-5-4?......................0................0...........................0
5-11-10……………1……….0……………….. -1
3-6-5 open…………3………7-2………………. +5
5-8-7-rider?....................................................... 0
2-1-3 open…………3……..7/2-2……………… +3/2
tax………………………………………………(1.1)
Net Profit…………………………………….. + 3.5
.................................................................................................................
...............................................
I've to discotinue as it is becoming too long and I'm running short of time.
Part II will be published tomorrow, which will include my selections upto 6 Dec 09.
That part will be a real thriller , I promise!!!

Mumbai 6 Nov 09

Cat I
highland Crown - W
Churchill- W
Cat II
Flaming Arrow-W
Highland Crown-W
River Glory-EW
Star Empire-W
Churchill-W
HiDolly-P
cat III
2-1-4
6
3
17-11-3 open
5
9
(1-15)-2
12-6-5 open

Bangalore - 5 December 09

Cat I
Aprillia-W
Amar Prem-EW
Sunnyland-P
Originality-W
Cat II
Aprillia-W
Saddle Queen-W
Amar Prem-EW
Sunnyland -P
Originality-W
River Island -EW
CatIII
9-2-8
2-7-1-
1-2-6
1-4-3 open
1-6-7 anyone
5-1
2-3-7 open
2-8-7

Bangalore 4 December

catII
Tuthmosis-EW
MooMemories-EW
Carbean Pirate- P
Grees-W if moey comes-ignore otherwise
if Greens odds go up go ffor Another Destiny

cat III

1) XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
2)(3-2)-9
3)3-8-11- open
4) 7-3-2
1-8-6
1-4-3
11-6-12-open
3-4-7

we have achieved our goal in Cat I

We have achieved our goal in cat I !!

I started my selections in Category I , from 15 Nov 09 and the net result in this category was negative till 3 Dec 09 which was (minus) Rs. 5,750/-
On 4Dec 09 I posted 3 selections ,viz., Aristocratical(3/1)- win, Ares(8/1)-eachway and Attila(85/100)-win.
Rolling Rs 1000/- on these 3 winners we received Rs. 4000 ---> Rs. 32,000 + Rs.18,000 (place on Rs.8000/-@5/4) ---> Rs.42,500 + Rs. 50,000 = Rs.92,500 –( tax @10% , Rs.100+Rs 1200+ Rs 5000) = Rs.86,300.

Net profit from this exercise is Rs. 86,300 – Rs 5750(previous loss) = Rs.80,550.

Therefore, Cat I exercise is closed because our aim of making a net gain of Rs. 50,000/- from this part has been achieved ,within 20 days…

Mumbai 03/12/09

bookmakers will be happy today

Cat I
Aristocratical-W
Atilla-W
Ares-EW
Cat II
Aristocratical-W
sunlight-EW
Ares-EW
Atilla-W
Chankya-P
Illuminate-EW
Tell Me More -P
CatIII
3-1-4
(6-7)-2
5-1-2-open
(6-9)-5
4-9-13-open
(1-8)-10
5
11-7-5

stray thoughts-punters,gamblers,bloggers,readers...

Some stray thoughts,opinions on - punters ,gamblers(prostitutes) and bloggers and readers…

I was trying to think of a better header but could not find one and settled for this one!

Let me start with the first word - punter. A punter is a person(M/F) who goes to racecourse to bet on race runners(horses, roans, fillies, colts, geldings, mares or donkeys) and tries to make money thinking that it is the easiest way to earn a fortune. Many people , called self-styled experts – try to reinforce his/her perception by putting/posting/touting their opinions/comments/observations etc. to influence his final judgment. At the end of the day, sometimes , you see his beaming face –with the success written allover his face , but most of the days you can see his haggard face and wonder why he comes again and again to lose. He is the man who enables these race-clubs survive .

A part of this community called punters, perhaps 5 to 10% - is called gamblers. The oldest profession in the world was/is called - prostitution, I’m told. These people belong to this category. Look at their faces carefully- they’ll fake the orgasm when they are losing and of course they will try every trick of the trade to hoodwink the gullible punters. They belong to all groups of race goers- owners, trainers, jockeys, tipsters, experts, track reporters and numerous other categories. Even a sweeperess at Mahalaxmi offers tips! The ‘oldest professional’ provide services for a consideration while a gambler sometimes pays, for the services rendered – then how can I equate them , someone will argue. My answer is that those who pay are not gamblers but punters. It is the freeloaders whom I’m referring to. All freeloaders are not clever, only few are – those who keep on changing their identity . Some of them are even bloggers !

A blogger ,in my opinion, is a person who wants to share ,offer ,express and exchange opinion, information ideas etc. without any obligation on the part of the reader and the blogger . Some of them, initially meekly, ask others to put their blog identity on existing sites/blogs and after sometime when they ‘grow’, they try to become ‘exclusive’. Why can’t they become ‘exclusive’ from the beginning? Want to piggy ride on others?

Finally , I come to the readers of the blogs! Expressing a contrary opinion is a right of every reader – though very few bloggers take it kindly. But using civil language instead of rough or abusive words can enliven a discussion and improve interaction , which is the basic purpose of blogging, I feel . But what will you call these kind of readers who ask your opinion by ‘intentionally’ misspelling a word and asking : what do you think about ‘Spark of Madarch@@’…is he a classic material? His name still exists on some of the blogs I visit regularly. Of course I have never published this ‘man’ s question and few bloggers did remove it after few days. I suspect that he is an oldtimer bloggerand net surfer who tries to test the patience of others! His remarks perhaps, are still there on some blogs…
What do we do with these kind of people – I am asking you…

Mumbai & Hydera bad 29 Nov

Mumbai
cat I
Blazing Spectacle -EW
Cabriolet -W
Lakhadema-W
CatII
River Memories_W
Tyumen-P
Spica-EW
Juventus-W
Lakhadema-W
CatIII
4-1-3
(2-3)
(5-1)-3
6-1-5
3-7-1-open
5-8-2
4-1-7
11-6-1-open
4
6-5-2

Hyderabad
catI
Music Express-W
Clever loy
Cat II
Music Express-w
AlexanderSquare-EW
Splendid Act -EW
Clever Ploy-W
CatIII
3rd.race onward
III race-!0-9-5
1-9-2
(2-1)-6
14-1-10open
6-1
1-14-6open
1-3-11

Bangalore 28 November

seems a bad day for favorites

CatI
Gypsy Magic
Aristos-EW
CatII
Glory of Dancer-W
Raptor Force_W,this trainer is unreliable.
Game Dancer-W
Gypsy Magic-W
Appolanaire-EW

Cat III
second race onward
(2-3)-8
2-3-4
1-3-8
1-2-6 open
8-3-2
3-4
8-2-6
2-3-5open

Mumbai 26 Nov - the day the government failed

CatI
Forest Flare-W
Cat II
Nymph-w
Ashridge-EW
Pure Relatio-W
Forest Flare-W
Saffron-EW
Cat III
3-7-9
1
3-4
7-3-2
3
6-7-3 open
1-7-8 open
4-3-9
2-4-10

some stray thoughts, opinions and free advice

There was an Indian king who was very fond of war. Most of able bodied men in his kingdom lost their lives due to this fad. His ‘vazir’ after listening the woes of widows called on a ‘wise man’ – a Brahmin, to help him. That wise man devised a game – called chess, and presented it to the king. After playing few games the king was so impressed and happy that he decided to reward the wise man-the poor Brahmin. The man said that he is a contended man living in his kingdom and want nothing from him. The king –‘master of what he surveys’, insisted that he must reward the old man. The man thought for a while and said: Oh my lord ,if you insist, then I ask you to give this poor Brahmin some wheat grains because I don’t own any land to till and live at the mercy of my benefactors. As you like this game ,I request you to give me enough wheat grains by putting 1 grain on first square ,2grains on second square, 4grains on the third square –doubling up the number of grains for the next square till the 64th square is filled up. It will help me and my family to live long.

The king ordered a bag of wheat grains and the game began.

By placing 1 grain on first square,2 grains on second square and 4 on third square the king was astonished to find that the bag was empty in 24th square. He ordered for more bags but found out soon that all the stock in his kingdom could not fill the 40th square . Bewildered , the king called his ‘vazir’ who whispered, after some quick calculations, that the demand of that man could not be met as he asked for–all the wheat produced in the world for next 2000 years!...

Long ago, in mid 70’s I purchased a book- ‘How to win Races’ from Surve, owner of a bookstall at Dadar(W) station. The price was Rs.50/- for a 64 page book! After reading it I went back to him to return the book and he graciously agreed to refund Rs.30/-. Offering me the money , with a smirk he told me that I am the 5th. man to return the book and he has already made Rs. 100/- from this Rs. 50/- book! The gist of the book was to advise the punter to double the amount of bet after a loss and keep on doubling till he wins and recovers his losses. Very fine idea- but is it practicable. Recently, on some blogs or sites I‘ve read similar suggestions, which are bound to take a punter to his doom.

Let us examine this stupid advice from real-life situation. Maybe, in my 5 to 6 years of postings on internet I've not used this word or come across this word and perhaps forgot to use it. Who knows? Not me, definitely- I can assure my reader/(s).

We know 7 to 8 races are run on a race day. We start with Rs. 100,000/- as our capital. We bet only 1% (Rs.1000) on first race and lose. We increase bet to Rs 2000/- for second race and lose it too. On third race we bet Rs.4000/-, on fourth Rs. 8000/- on fifth Rs. 16,000/- and on sixth our bet will be Rs. 32,000/- obviously.
After losing 6 races in a row our next bet should be Rs. 64,000/- but we are left with only Rs. 37,000/- because of this ‘progressive betting’ and if we lose this amount on the seventh race we have nothing left!!
This is NOT a hypothetical exercise! I’ve proof- recorded proofs , where ALL the first choice of many tipsters, race books, experts etc.-famous and unknowns alike, have failed in a season few times. Even one day’s failure is enough to send a punter to the ‘doghouse’!
Advice –Always and everytime follow your head , not your heart…

Hyderabad 24 Nov

Cat I
Orient GlorW
Cat II
Orient Glory-W
Scubarioo-W
Lancashire _EW
Cat III
3-5-4XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
4-1-6
6-7-2
6-8-3
3-5-11
8-10-2
2-7-1 open
(3-9)-10
6-2-5

22 Nov

H yderaad
CatI
Messalina-win

Cat II
Manduro-EW
Cygnet-EW
Messalina -win
Cheetha he jeetha-EW

Cat III3rd race onward
from 4th race
(1-9)-5
3-4-5
4-8-1 open
2-5-3-anyone
6-2-1
1-2-4

Mumbai - Ist. day

Cat I sea Ruler
Rio Del Ray

Cat II
Glorious Mss - ?
Sea Ruler -W
Rio Del Ray -EW
Arabian Champ-WRed Dragon- W
Bemissal-P

at III- 3rd rae onward:
3-1-4 opn
2-6-3
2-5-4?
5-11-10
3-6-5open
5-8-7 5 is unbeatable but rider is unreliable
2-1-3 open

Bangalore 21Nov

today is bookmaker's day!

Cat I
Red Renegade
CatII
Noble Sacrifice- EW
Brigades Pride- P
Red Renegade-W

Cat III
2-3-1
1-6-5
3-9-8
2-3-8
12-11-6
3-12-2 open
7-5-1 open

Bangalore 20 Nov

cat I
D'Artagnan

Cat II
Gara Fluid-place
Gordon Knot could have been a EW but LMarshall presence makes him ieligible
StormChaser-EW
Alviano- win
D'Artagnan-win
Sherdil-place

CatIII
(1-8)-4
1-6-2
(8-!)-3
1-2-4
1-6-8
6-9-4 open
(2-6)-11

some stray thoughts, some opinions

some stray thoughts and some opinions-I

Late Busybee (Behram Contractor) used to write under this caption on current political and civic affairs of erstwhile Bombay. I’ve also used this heading for many of my write-ups on horse racing on IndiaRace.com. I’ll use it on this blog in future.

Let me start with IR.com. When Reddy and Sharan Kumar were there they have given me a link to my old articles which helped me to continue,but when they left and new group took over they have disabled the link. It was natural on their part. I was neither their paid employee nor had any obligation to them and stopped writing on that site. I do write on Racing pulse when somebody refers to me by name or I think strongly about a subject. I prefer to write on my blog now .

I consider opinions, suggestions, remarks, comments made by anybody as manifestation of that individual’s personality and character and take it in that spirit. I take pride that I did and could write ,on various subjects , related to horse racing but feel disappointed ,sometimes, as nobody interacts on topics other than betting and gambling. I do admit that betting IS an integral part of racing but learning and improving betting acumen is more important and 90% of punters are INTENTIONALLY kept uninformed by vested interests including experts. I’ll not blame bookies, trainers, jockeys – perhaps owners and breeders too, for trying to keep them ignorant ,because it helps them I the long run.

Why is it so? Do we still believe in the age old Indian tradition to pass on our knowledge to ‘most suitable disciple’. We have dozens of breeders who never talk about their success/failure, hundreds of trainers and jockeys who never express their opinion on their profession , though many of them visit internet regularly and have good knowledge of the net language. We have more than 40 or 50 tipsters who write on net, blogs, newspapers and race books but barring a few who write copiously no one(including me) bothers to analyse the failure and success of a runner from the point of view of enlightening a punter. Majority of pseudo readers respond – forget what happened today , think of tomorrow. These pseudo-experts forget one of the basic ‘principles of war’- more you sweat in peace, less you will bleed in war… All are worried that the population of punters is declining – affecting the future of racing but none is trying to improve the process to disseminate the racing info, curtail or contain the malpractices indulged in by owners, trainers and jockeys (in that order) to instill confidence in current crop of punters and attract newcomers .

Horseracing industry is comparable to any other industry in terms of ‘real’ turnover which in my estimation ranges between 8 to 10 billion US dollar. With only 1300+ foal born , 3000+ races run and roughly 4000+ runners running on only 8 racecourses ,every year the returns are better than any other industry of the same size. With 18,000 to 20,000 diehard punters and about same number of casual punters pumping in about 5 to 7 billion dollar every year in this game has increased the number of illegal bookmakers and their cronies, helpers and pseudo experts and drastically has decreased the number of legal bookmakers and reduced the amount invested on legalized betting. Why should a ‘sane’ punter pay 26% when he can get the ‘same’ return at 10%. He also saves tax on winnings above Rs. 2500/-

Sometimes , I get a feeling that there are some vested interests in RWITC –who are connected indirectly or perhaps directly with the illegal bookmakers of western India . I don’t find any reason for their failure, when BTC could convince their Government and increase its turnover from 100 crore to 1000 crore in 10 years , why RWITC bigwigs fail to convince its rulers and allow its turn over to stagnate at the same level during last 10 years. Do we accept the assumption that ‘black money’ component in western India racing is more powerful than the men who control the racing there?

Who can provide a satisfactory answer to this question? I can not. Can anyone of you who read this piece is able to do that? Try...

Hyderabad -15 Nov

Cat I
Tristar -win

catII
Guiding Light- win
King of Court-Place
Tristar-win

sequel to let us play a game

Sequel to let us play the game

My aim to start this exercise ( experiment) is to test my system’s success/failure for all types of punters. Some punters play only one or sometimes 2 races in a day, some play 2 to 4 races and few try their luck with all the races of the day. To satisfy all these different types of punters I’ve designed this exercise.

My data is not stored on computer and my typing speed is slow(7/8WPM) and I workout my ratings manually incorporating various factors – speed, form, breeding, track variant penetrometre reading etc. All this takes 6 to 8 hours on a normal race day . Sometimes, e.g., Derby race or an important or complicated race I may have to spend 2 to 3 hours on one race itself! The methodology does not allow me more than ½ hour to decide the final selections – 3 for each race, 24 for 8 races and 1 selection for 1st. category of punter and 2 or more for 2nd. category.

The selections will , therefore, be posted on the blog - not in the morning, but at any time BEFORE the 1st race of the day and IF DELAYED then selections of the races ALREADY RUN will be DELETED from the list before the posting. Race to race posting will not be done because I would like to be present on the race course to bet my ‘tenner’ on my selections!

Let me repeat the rules of the game once more.

1) betting unit – Rs. 1000/- Capital Rs. 20,000/- each category.
2) incremental increase ( Rs.1000/- + 50% win of previous race) for Cat I & II only
3) constant unit(Rs.10/- or more) ,without incremental increase, for Cat III
4) ‘Jodi’ race- equal amount on both, Eachway- one unit on win 2 units on place
5) any race with prefix/suffix -OPEN race – unit bet on ALL 3 selections.
6) Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad centers only will be considered.
7) Tax @ 10 % will be considered for every bet
I will judge my success or failure based on these rules on Tuesday of next week .

Let me explain the method I’ll use from the selections given in Cat II for 7,8 and 9 November 2009 for Bangalore and Hyderabad races.

Bangalore : 7 November 2009
------------------------------------.

Name Investment Return Profit/(Loss) Capital Increase
Rashida-W 1000 1800 800 400
R’ford-EW 3000 0 (3000) 0
C’vating-W 1000 1650 650 350
GMagic-W 1300 3250 1950 950
S’Lady-EW 3000 3000 1000 3000
Tax (930)
Net Profit/Loss= Retun-Investment =9700-8930 = +Rs.770/-

Hyderabad : 8 November 2009

SScot-W 1000 1500 500 300
IM’tain-W 1200 0 (1200) 0
Cefiro-P 1000 1800 800 400
VSena-EW 3000 0 (3000) 0
Tax (620) 0
Net Profit/(loss) = 3300 -6820 = - Rs.3520/-
Hyderabad : 9 November 2009

Manduro-P 1000 4000 3000 1500
P’ti/T’H-W1250/1250 3250 750 350
P Doll-W 1400 9800 8400 4200
JG-EW 4200 0 (4200) 0
Tax (910)
Net Profit/(loss) =20410 – 10010 = + Rs. 10410/-
Net Profit/(loss) for the week = Rs.770 – Rs 3520 + Rs. 10410 =Rs. 7650/- Profit

Let us start a game

I have been experimenting with my speed rating system and based on ‘speed rating numbers’ I post my selections. In 2005 and 2007 I used to post my selections on IR.com website and IHRB forum. Though they have been removed from IR.com on forum they are still there along with my analysis . In 2008 , I posted these selections on TurfParrot site in Mar/April and had very successful strike rate.

Many punters, analysts and race goers opine that you can not make profit from races . I do not agree. To prove my point I’ll start posting my choice based on my system in 3 different categories for a particular race day :

1) one choice (win or place or win/place)only,
2) several choices ,
3) full race card selections.

My typing speed is only 7/8 WPM ,therefore, I’ll not give detailed comments .

My betting unit will be Rs. 1000/- for 1st. and 2nd. category and ‘one unit’ – which can be Rs.10/- or Rs. 100/- or Rs. 1000/-(but calculated in unit format only) for the 3rd.category .

My target will be Rs. 50,000/- win or loss for the first two categories and I’ll stop the moment I win or lose that amount for these 2 , but will continue for the 3rd. category till end of the season when I’ll calculate my winning/losing units.

While my betting unit will be CONSTANT for 3rd. category it will INCREASE after a win and will remain SAME (Rs.1000/-) after a loss. If I win , 50% of win will be added to next bet and 50% goes to my ‘profit account’. But - if I lose, I’ll start again with standard betting unit ,which is Rs. 1000/-.

Every 2 or 3 years I modify/change/reconstruct my system and use it to find out its efficacy and performance. I’m still experimenting and WARN readers to observe and NOT TO BET ON MY SELECTIONS WITHOUT MY EXPLICIT APPROVAL. I’m not using a disclaimer and I don’t need that after explaining that this is an experiment!

My postings will not be at a fixed time and will be posted as and when my calculations are complete – but will be BEFORE the RUN of the race of the selection .

Let us start and find out the ‘winning street’!
My selections for 2nd. category are already out and for 1st. and 3rd. category will start from 14th. November.

Hyderabad 9 Nov

today also bad day for punters but not as bad as yesterday...

Sugar Gold -place(odds less than 6)
Manduro- place
Pavarotti-Tillcowscomehome- one of them should win
Rainbow Fog -win, Habituated -fluke
Party Doll- good chance towin,if on job
John Galt- eachway

hyderabad 8 November

today is fluke day

Splendid Scot-win
Ice Mountain-win
Cefiro-place
Vijaysena- eachway

Bangalore 7 November

Rashida - win
redford- eachway
captivating-win
gypsy magi- win
she's a lady-eachway

male vs female thoroughbred - a finding

My ambition is to create an even playing field for all the participants and in the attempt to achieve this aim , I sometime annoy and antagonize many powerful and influential sections of racing fraternity. But I don’t care because I neither live on their dole nor need their approval.

Many times on several occasions I’ve advocated that a female thoroughbred is as versatile and capable as a male one and tried to prove it by scientific methods (mitochondria et al) and by empirical methods proving that a mare ‘s average winning per year is as good as that of a champion sire in India !

To augment this point I would like to post following facts.

While updating my system I discovered that our notion of male superiority is wrong at least in the case of thoroughbreds! Here is the result of the preliminary findings.

Working on Pune track(monsoon as well as main) foe 1200m the winning percentage of female runners for different class for the period 1990- 2000(10 years) is as follows:
Class I – 25%
classII - 50%
class III - 68%
class IV – 56%
class A - 23%
3 yo only- 51%

Except Class I (top class) and Class A the ‘weaker’ sex wins more races than male thoroughbreds! The low percentage for these classes may be attributed to the fact that hardly any mare 5years+ will be running races in higher class because she is more useful in the breeding shed than on the race track leaving the field open to males . In the lowest class only worthless females may be left who are used for gambling at appropriate time rather than used to produce substandard progeny who mat y not find any takers.
But the most interesting point is performance of 3year olds where fillies have a slender lead and that fact must be noted carefully for future. Females mature faster than males – is a universal fact , in animal kingdom, including homo sapiens and the superior winning percentage of a 3 year old filly over 3 year old colt/gelding is a manifestation of that!

Will you buy that?

class of a thoroughbred- some opinions

Performance , ratings and Class

Aboline (rating 93) won Bangalore summer Derby beating Jacqueline(90) by short head and many experts went gaga over this feat and exclaimed that class, merit and rating(of official handicapper) is the ultimate end of handicapping. This happened on 12 July 2009. One week later on 19 July 2009 a filly called Conceptual(89) beat Icebreaker (115) – twin classic winner by 7 long lengths- making all of them go motionless, speechless and incommunicado! Another example. Sparks(63) in Hyderabad monsoon Derby beats easily and convincingly many highly rated runners –Davenport(82), Fleet Indian(77), Red Renegade(84) – to name a few.

Handicapping a horse or a horse race is not an easy job, although handicappers are aplenty who sometimes under their name and many times under assumed names post their selections .

But I’m not discussing individuals (homo sapiens) here ,but trying to express my opinion about horse racing and its components . Class is one of the most important attribute (or aspect or factor or parameter ) of a race horse.

What is CLASS? It is the ‘racing ability’ of a thoroughbred to win a race.

Class is subtotal of pedigree (including breeding criterion ) , performance , current condition and some external influences which make a horse win or lose a race. I’ll give just one example of each before closing down this short exposition.

Pedigree: Abs Fabs(Burden of Proof- Sunny Clime) is a stayer ,everyone knows it today because she has won Mysore Derby and Kolkata Derby and placed in many classics . But before winning Mysore Derby she was made to run in some nondescript sprint races and only after she won Mysore Derby experts ‘discovered’ her staying ability and she ran Kolkata Derby as a favorite! Sprint Star is another classic example of this ignorance.

Performance : It is the subtotal of ALL past performances of at least last one or 1 ½ years and not only last 3 or 4 races. Trainers bring down the handicap of their wards by placing in unsuitable distance races till they are confident of winning a race and then place a runner and go ‘for a kill’ when everything is favorable . Innumerable examples can be cited to prove this point. Indian Dancer(Hyderabad-227), Generalissimo(Pune-204) are some recent examples of this trend.

Current condition :Mansoor – an Indian Derby winner after a year or two of his Derby win was made to run as 5 0r 6 year old in Calcutta and was running and losing class A races! Perhaps he lost in Class VB also!
A thoroughbred rarely can maintain his racing fitness for a long time spread over a racing career of 2 or 3 years. Very few trainers can maintain and improve the ‘racing fitness’ of their wards. If a runner is tracking well , comparable to his past work, he/she has every chance to win in ’his class’. Diego Rivera, Rhapsidion Snow, Oasis Star are some examples who confirm this point .Autonomy after losing in Indian Derby as second favorite ran only one race in Pune and ‘gave in’ meekly to Juventus in a 1600m race but ran a mock race in very fast time 13 days before Invitation cup. Antonios , ran 3 long distance races in 2 months prior to Invitation and was a bit jaded in that race and lost it .
Analyse the track of Fleet Indian before Mysore Derby and comparing it with his track before Hyderabad Derby it is clear that he has improved in the intervening period and with a better jockey his chance has improved . He did prove it.

Therefore, class of a thoroughbred can not be assessed by the number(rating) assigned to him/her but a broader view must be taken to identify his/her ‘true class’.

horse racing - some controversies-some opinions

Horseracing is a complex game , where homo sapiens and thoroughbreds try to prove and disprove each other wrong!

A thoroughbred is an animal but a homo sapien is also one ,with a difference that homosapiens can program, control, manipulate the behaviour,performance and the final result of a race in which a thoroughbred participates. But he is a genuine specimen of his breed, while a homo sapien may not be - normally speaking .

Over a period of time many theories ,based on experience and observations have been put forward by racing experts about breeding, performance, weight,current form, pedigree, etc.
I'll write a short article ,supported by examples from Indian racing, to explain some of these points - which many punters fail to understand or account for in their analysis.

Pune-last day

1)Midsummer Knight -place
2) Star Warrior - win
3)Phenomenale - win
4)Highland Glory - eachway
5)Mytihical-eachway
6)Excellent story- each way

Mysore Derby Day 18/10/09

1) Amelia Cordell 2) Sprint Star are my choice which should win their respectivr races

Mysore Derby -a preview

Mysore Derby contenders : A short Preview.

With 40+ entries it is saddening to see that only 7 have accepted to race confirming that horseracing has become a commercial game(sport).

I’ll analyse the chances of following runners only – one of which is likely to win this classic.

1) Fleet Indian
2) Messalina
3) Red Renegade
4) Sprint Star

Messalina (Alnasr Alwasheek-Palazzio) has an ‘inverted’ pedigree. By ‘inverted’ I mean that mostly the sire of a classic contestant is chosen as a sprinter/miler while the dam normally is a route runner or a stayer . In Messalina’s case it is ‘ulta’. The sire is a miler/ stayer who has produced several Derby winners while the dam is a confirmed sprinter/miler. But same was the case with Icebreaker (Alnasr Alwasheek- Iceberg) who won 2 races of 2400m and placed in Indian Derby. These ‘aberrations’- (I don’t consider them aberrations) in normal situations weaken the classical breeding theories. These anomalies if correlated with latest advances in genetic research will confirm that old presumptions, were not wrong. But this is not the time for technical discussions and let us concentrate on the racing prospect of the runner. Though a close scrutiny of Iceberg and Palazzio reveals a very close similarity and equality between their racing performance and pedigree components!
Messalina (Roman dosage: 10-1-9-4-0) clearly indicates that she can stay 2000m because her dosage is very similar to Icebreaker(12-1-11-4-0) and if Icebreaker can win 2 races of 2400m , Messalina can also win a race of 2000m! But these are conjectures borne out of similes which may or may not be true. We will analyse the pedigree a bit more carefully.

Alnasr Alwasheek, the sire of Messalina has produced two Indian Derby winners and
A number of black type winners. Sadlers Wells-paternal grandsire was a close second in French Derby(2400m)
Palazzio(8-3-8-0-1) though termed a sprinter has a strain of staying blood and will reinforce the staying traits of the sire enabling her to go the distance of 2000m. Palazzio’s dam – Stately Home(2-2-2-0-0) has won few regional classics at Ooty and Delhi and one of her son Rapier did place III in Indian Derby .Santiago(Hafir)(3-4-4-1-2) – sire of Stately Home reinforces the staying ability of Messalina.
Performance of Messalina on the race track had been eye catching. After winning a nondescript race during Bangalore summer she tried her luck in a grade 2 race(62) at Pune and ended second , 1 ½ lengths behind Sea Ruler who has beaten Cabriolet convincingly by conceding 3 kg. and Cabriolet lost Pune Derby by neck. She(Messalina) revealed her class in this defeat! She was 6 lengths behind the winner at 600m and ended 1 ½ lengths behind at the winning post. Correlate these dry facts and you may realize that she is one of the prime contender for the winning bracket . Of course her Hyderabad 1000G win only reinforces this observation.


Sprint Star( Ontario- Royal Retreat)-(3-1-6-4-0) is a funny name for a thoroughbred whose pedigree says that he is an outright stayer and not a sprinter! After his win in Colts Trial the connections gladly paid Rs. 10,00,000/- to enter him in the Bangalore Derby and lying last but one till600m ended VII, a neck behind Gypsy Magic.
Sprint Star is the son of Ontario(4-4-6-8-2) a hybrid of speed ,precociousness (Storm Cat, Storm Bird) coupled with endurance, stubbornness, durability (Bustino , Jim French). A strange genetic mix of speed (from Storm Cat and Storm Bird) and stamina and endurance (from Bustino and Jim French) has bestowed an acceleration and the ability to sustain it- provided it is exploited correctly, successfully and improved gradually. This was proved successfully when he won Mysore 2000Guineas. With Bustino’s staying capacity and Jim French’s indefatigable (he ran 11 races in 4 months- 10 of them Stakes races!) traits he is sure to make his adversaries sweat for every inch of the final furlong, provided he is ‘sincere’ unlike Bangalore Derby ! This race is a tossup between him and Messalina !


Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. His sire Bold Russian(8-5-8-8-1) and dam Afrodita(5-2-3-4-0) who did not race but did produce Brown Sugar (Hyderabad Derby Winner) and Arizza who placed III in Bangalore Oaks confirmed that staying 2000m or 2400m should be easy for him. But his performance belies his pedigree!

He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’sincerely’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) .But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 (Bangalore) and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. His ‘performance’ in Hyderabad Derby was another ‘repeat’ performance. From draw no 1 he led for first 50m and fell back to IV/V on rails till 800m moving with Fair Option and Sparks in mid bunch but moved out gradually to far out and while Sparks took turn 3 horse wide he was 8 ‘horse wide’ at bend and 2 ½ lengths behind Fair Option at 200m. Hard ridden now he ended Nk behind Fair Option and 3+ lengths behind the winner. If remained at rails in a soft going and waited he would have saved 3 to 4 lengths !
The connections and the rider may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon ! How he runs in Mysore Derby will be interesting to watch.

Red Renegade(9-3-15-0-1) won a 1600m race from start to finish in a reasonably good time and though his dam Sky Rocket has to show nothing to talk about but the grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced 2 very good stayers in Moment of Glory and beautiful Babe. He tried his luck in Hyderabad Monsoon Derby and was prominent till bend before fading out in the straight. Can he win Mysore Derby ? Maybe, I am not sure...

Natural Knight -some observations

After receiving mails of Seenu and Rajendra I was reluctant to write about Native Knight because it takes me 3 to 6 hrs to study ,analyse and then write about a thoroughbred. But after closely looking at his 2 races I was compelled to write about him. I’ve ignored him for the Derby because he neither had sufficient experience nor any exceptional track work .
But when I checked a bit closely I was surprised to note that he was 1 ½ lengths behind Cabriolet in race no 143 and again in Pune Derby he was only 1 ½ lengths behind hard-ridden Cabriolet! Race no 143 was his first run and Derby was the second run of racing career! Fantastic improvement ! This realization made me look a bit carefully into his pedigree .

Native Knight( Placerville- Native Tactics) apparently has no great bloodlines and is one of 70 odd produce of Placeville of 2006 .Though his dam has won 6 races but they were all sprint races and do not strengthen his chances for classic distances. Then how could he finish 1 ½ lengths behind two hard ridden class I/II runners ?

Native Tactics(Blue Bird-Miss Oriental) is a ‘got abroad’ who came in foal and did her racing in India-trained by DR Byramjee and owned by D Khaitan .Blue Bird – born in USA was a champion sprinter who raced in Ireland and placed in several graded races.

Miss Oriental(Habitat-Miss Bangkok) with Roman dosage(29-7-9-1-0) did not race and after producing 2 nondescript progeny in USA, was imported and Native Tactics is her first foal born in India. She was subsequently covered always by Young Senor and produced Coral Gables and OnnuOnnuOnnu –both champion sprinters.

Thus apparently , the immediate female line gives the impression that Native Knight may do well in sprint races . But that is not true.

A breeding axiom – reinforced and confirmed by genetic studies states that many times the attributes of grand children or great grandchildren resemble more than the next generation ( son/ daughter) .

Storm Bird(Roman Dosage, 11-7-16-0-0) -sire of Blue Bird was also sire of Storm Cat (covering fee $ 500,000), was a champion sprinter and Habitat(dosage 13-14-13-4-2) – sire of Miss Oriental was a champion miler but Ivory Dawn- the dam of Blue Bird who never raced had a dosage(4-21-17-2-0) .

Ivory Dawn( Sir Ivor-Dusky Evening) has a very impressive parentage . Sir Ivor(Sir Gaylord-Attica) was the winner of many classics including Epsom Derby and his ‘turn of foot’ was amazing. In Epsom Derby ,ridden by Lester Piggot ,he ran off the pace holding his horse till 200m and found himself 4 lengths behind connaught –ridden by young Sandy Barclay .He loosened the reigns , gave a tap to Sir Ivor and he won easing up by one length.
His trainer – Vincent O’Brien had placed a bet of 500 pounds each way for Epsom Derby win , with a bookie BEFORE Sir Ivor started his racing career!
He is also very well ‘sex balanced’ with Sir Gaylord who is sire of both –Sir Ivor from the sire side and Habitat from the dam side ( I hope puritans will forgive me for making these silly statements – because I’m writing for a common punter) . Sir Gaylord a English horse went to USA and after beating them on their home ground in some races he became the favorite for Kentucky Derby but due to a hairline fracture few days before the race his Triple Crown dream was shattered . He was retired to stud .

The question now is ? Did Native Knight receive some of the traits from these versatile and superior thoroughbreds?

The answer is : he did. His two runs in the company of the best western India runners confirm this .

But will he rise to the challenge? Depends on the training methods and the intentions …

Only time will tell…

Versaki and Indian Derby

Versaki can not win Indian Derby

Pune Derby has thrown many interesting pointers for the next Mumbai season. It has exposed the form and the limitations of several runners. In my earlier article I emphatically said that Versaki will win Pune Derby and my next choice was between Cabriolet and Confiserie .After analyzing the track work it was clear that Cabriolet is the next best runner .Post race it was evident that Versaki has reached his peak and though upto 1600m he may still retain his advantage ,but for races 2000m and above he is vulnerable.

In fact it is too early to make a comment on Indian Derby at this point of time and though he will stay the Derby distance , he will lose if Cabriolet and Jacqueline decide to run and have the ‘fitness’ shown on Derby day. But one thing is clear that next year’s Indian Derby will not be a one horse race and Versaki has little chance to win it ,unless he improves his behaviour and running style . In addition to these three one or two more unexposed challengers may also appear on the Derby day ,- who knows ?

derby day choice

my choice on Pune Derby day are :

1)Blueray
2)Jacqueline
3)Versaki
4)Estevez
5)True Elegance

Pune Derby - some opinions

Pune Derby has an interesting line up of middle distance( upto 2000m) runners who may not be able to go beyond 2000m and therefore may not be able to make an impact in Indian Derby or Indian Oaks to be run next year.

One thing in my mind is very clear that the present crop of 3 year olds allover India has no outstanding runner of the stature of Set Alight, Southern Empire etc. who swept everything before them but failed at the crucial stage of their career . Whether the failure was due to their inherent weakness or ‘man made’ will be shrouded in mystery –like the death of Phar Lap in USA or the tragic breakdown of Ruffian or Barbaro.

Leaving the history behind ,let us have a closer look at the contenders of Pune Derby.


The winner may be any one of the following, (alphabetically arranged) :
1) Cabriolet
2) Classerville
3) Confiserie
4) Red Dragon
5) Versaki

In my opinion, 3 most important variables (parameters) to win a classic race are :

a) past performance ,
b) current form,
c) pedigree .
To reach a conclusion I correlate all the 3 variables . Performance and pedigree details are available but the ‘current form ‘ can be assessed only few days before the actual race . Therefore, the opinion expressed below must be correlated with the current track of the runner before arriving at a decision . At this time I’ll discuss only the past performance and the pedigree pointers and if the ‘current form’ of a runner is as good as other he or she does stand a chance to win. We will analyse all of them in alphabatical order as given above.

Cabriolet (Glory of Dancer- Highland Ghillie)
Glory of Dancer is the sire of many classic and Black type winners and the data about him can be accessed from many websites.
Highland Ghillie (Storm Trooper- Cut of the Cloth) has a very interesting pedigree. Her sire - Storm Trooper, a son of Diesis out of Stormette, has produced two Pune Derby winners – Aquilo and Artois and several semiclassic winners and has the highest AWD (average winning distance of progeny) which is 1565m indicating that his progeny are more comfortable at longer distances.
Cut of the Cloth – dam of Highland Gillie placed 3rd. in Bay Meadows Oaks has produced two classic winners – Zurbran and Artois. Zurbran was surprised by Noble Eagle in Indian Derby but he avenged his defeat by winning Invitation cup and Indian St. Leger and many other races . This pedigree line points that 2000m distance will be ideal for this runner . His performance over 1600m is better than most of competitors and with judicious riding he will be a live threat to the favorite.







Versaki :

Versaki(Verglas- Ghassak) is sired by a sprinter (Verglas) out of a stayer(Ghassak) dam – an universally accepted formula and is the highest rated runner because he has won all his races till date including the last race of 1800m.

Verglas (Roman Dosage : 7-7-8-0-0) is a reasonably good sire and his main attribute – speed complements the staying ability of Ghassak. She is sired by Persian Bold whose ability to tranmit his traits are proven by his progeny.

Verglas is a very young ( they call them freshman sire) sire and and has very good record of (16% stakes winner- none of them in India) wins of his progeny! He is a ‘commercial’ sire like Storm Cat or Storm Bird and has performed very well as a new sire. He has a plethora of very famous names in his pedigree – Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, Secretariat,Dr Fager, Raise a Native, Nasrullah etc. to name a few. I’ve not named a single female ancestor, till now, to satisfy my critics who say that I always try to highlight female lines and pull down the sire lines! Another point brought out by some is that I never write about Indian sires and highlight only foreign sires. My answer is that most of the punters know about Indian sires but nobody gives them any information about foreign sires and I try to provide this info sothat they can assess themselves the merit of the sires of various runners.

Highest Honour (Roman no: 11-9-10-0-0)– sire of Verglas was a champion miler, a middle distance specialist.(winner of 1600 and 1850m –grade I races) is from Grey Sovereign line and has 4 lines of Nasrullah .

Ghassak(Persian Bold-Anjuli) has Roman Dosage(6-2-2-4-0) indicating clearly that she is more comfortable at route races and to prove that she did win a 2200m race and produced winners over 2000m and 2400m .Breeding is not an exact science but analogy and produce history reinforces the belief that Versaki can easily stay 2000m. Ghassak – dam of Versaki, an ‘old matron’ came to India at the ripe old age of 14 yrs and Versaki is her 8th foal – born in India. Her dam sire , Northfields is a winner of 2 US regional Derbies which should add few points to Versaki’s ability. He should be a live contender for races upto 2000m. If his current form , at the time of run, matches the competitors he should win the race.

Confiserie :

After running insignificant 3rd. in 2 races of 1400m Confiserie, was placed in a ‘plate race’ of 1800m to run with many experienced, accomplished but maiden runners and obviously was at lucrative odds. I was impressed by Confiserie (Placerville- Sprungli) win on 20/9/09 at Pune. Clocking 1m 51.1s for 1800m , which is 1.5 second better than Yana’s (class I ) on the same day!
She had nondescript runs earlier ,but this daughter of Sprungli can match strides with other 3yos and should beat them if tried seriously. Placerville is a well-known sire - sire of innumerable classic winners but Sprungli has run and won several races in class I including few graded races .She placed 3rd. in Indian Derby and her maternal grandsire – Treasure Leaf was a potent source of stamina . After Jacqueline and Versaki I rate her as the third best western India challenger and if prepared suitably and earnestly she will be a live threat to these ‘imported’ Indians! It will be interesting to watch her career graph .


Red Dragon:
Red Dragon(Major Impact- Zillion Figlia) has won a 1800m race at Pune but the dam does not encourage the staying abilities of this runner and if he wins I’ll be be most surprised watcher of the race. Then I’ll have to go deep in the pedigree of this runner and come out with a reasonable explanation. He was always in the front bunch of runners during Hyderabad Derby and may not have relished the underfoot condition . But I still maintain that he can not win this race ,unless it is offered to him on a platter!

Classerville (Placerville – Pleasure Hunt)
I’ve already written about him during Bangalore Derby and Mysore 2000 Guiness and I don’t think I can add anything more to his performance. You are advised to read my earlier postings about him...
This is in response to Tiger’s query about the chances of First Empire in the Pune Derby.

First Empire (Placerville- Star Spangled) has an enigmatic racing record as well as a pedigree which is more confusing than enlightening.
Let us first study the pedigree then analyse the race records.

Placerville is a very well known sire in India . The dam of First Empire – Star Spangled ( Riyahi- Star of the Stage) is basically a stayer or a mid distance runner having won 2 races of 1800m and 2000m which is backed by her Roman numbers which are (8-3-15-2-0). But she has defied the basic breeding theories in that though she has won route races most of her progeny are sprinters or at most have gone upto a mile. But her best known daughter – Blue Horizon owned by Jhangianis was a classic sprinter who has won Sprinters classic and many black type sprint races . She reminds me of Truffa whose first offspring- Velvet Rope won Indian Derby , beating Mystical and Holding Court in a fierce fight in last 200m; but her other progeny – Petronella, Own Voice could not go beyond 1200m- ofcourse both were sired by a sprinter!

The grand dam of First Empire ,called Star of the Stage has more ‘stars’ in her pedigree than most of the famous sires and imported dams. Nureyev, Northern Dancer, Forli, Thong, Special, SomethingRoyal. You name them and they are there – giving her much better dosage point than most of our sires- Indian and imported ! Her Roman numbers(9-8-33-2-0) add up to 52 but also indicate that with all the ‘inputs’ from the celebrated sires and dams in her pedigree she has more concentration for mid distance (1600-2000m). when coverd by Riyahi((12-2-3-5-0) who added a significant amount of speed of Red God(30-8-8-4-0) she produced Star Spangled who could outrun the competition .

But we are digressing from the main point , which is , the probability of First Empire winning the Pune Derby.

Let me start with a known fact. If Sparks can win Hyderabad Derby why can’t First Empire win this Pune Derby. He can.

Let us analyse his race records, because pedigree analysis says that he can , or to be safe – he may.

But can he win – probably not, unless his current form is much better than his main competitors.

After having a feel of the racetrack in Mumbai he ran at Pune in race no 3 as a favorite and lost to Red Dragon badly. His next engagement was race no 37(1600m) where he led till 200m and lost to Imperio who won another 1800m race in poor timing. His 3rd. run in race no 110(1800m) was good. Held in check till bend he came up well in closing stages but was no threat to his conquerer – Red Dragon , and ended third.

His pedigree is excellent, performance(race record) is average and only smashing trackwork can catapult him to the board. Getting winning bracket is difficult.

Still there is hope. If Sparks can do it – why can’t he?

Hyderabad Derby day

Mayfair Girl ,Ivory Snow, Spot On should win and Bernardo is an eachway chance.
for Derby I'm going to place my tenner on Fleet Indian but hedge him with Red Renegade.

Hyderabad Derby on 2/10/09- some opinions

Fleeting glance at Hyderabad Derby winners:
Only 3 criteria - Pedigree , Class and performance will be considered .

It is sometimes embarrassing to speak out of turn – especially when talking to skeptics and Indian race goers are no exception . Without knowing the entries, handicaps , riders , current form, acceptance to say that ‘X’ runner is better than ‘Y’ runner is risky and I did take that risk -10days before the actual running of Hyderabad Derby.

Some additions to the acceptance made it mandatory to talk about some more of them and -take a ‘fleeting glance’ at some of them . Following is my opinion about them – considering class, pedigree and performance only.

Al Fatha( Steinbeck-Anguilla) has always won as a fluke and failed as a favorite! His sire is maternal grandsire of Set Alight and his dam has won a race upto 2000m and Anguilla’s damsire EverydayII was a known stayer . In race no 116 after loitering in rear he picked up speed and ended 5th. Nothing much to talk about but flukes have never given a chance to talk about them!
Cambiasso(Razeen-Gourgandine) is a disgrace to the pedigree . the sire and dam have produced Allied Forces and Perceived Value – both winners over 2400m+ and this gelding ‘refusing’ to win a single race surprises me . He can not win this race, with this kind of performance.

Davenport(Steinbeck- Congratulations) . The dam has won Indian Oaks(2400m) but has not produced any good runner, though Davenport seems to be the best of her produce till date. With a bit of luck he may win .

Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’desperately’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) and staying 2000m will be no problem for him. But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. The connections may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon ! He is the best of the lot – performance wise , but can he win ? Intention of the connections and the kind of run will prove it.

Leonardo(Tirol- Island Charm) was closing in(Bangalore race no 94) on Sprint Star – shock winner, in Colts Trial at Bangalore and a worthy winner of Mysore 2000 Guinness recently . His performance in Gypsy Magic winning race no 173 was more intriguing –placing 5th. from nowhere! Bustino in his pedigree confirms that he can run upto 2400m- but will he? He is a live threat unless ‘ they’ have some other plans. Let us wait, watch and see.

Red Dragon(Major Impact- Zillion Figlia) has won a 1800m race at Pune but the dam does not encourage the staying abilities of this runner and if he wins I’ll be be most surprised watcher of the race. Then I’ll have to go deep in the pedigree of this runner and come out with a reasonable explanation.

Red Renegade( Placerville- Sky Rocket) won a1600m race start to finish proving his staying ability. His grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced not one but two runners who have won over 2800m confirming that he will have no problem over this distance .
The race is wide open and I’ll short list Fleet Indian ,Leonardo, Red Renegade and Davenport but a fluke can not be ruled out – who may be Al Fatah or Red Dragon

Mysore 1/10.09

in first race Winning Attitude can win if connections are serious otherwise better to play place bet

races no 6,7 and 8 are very competitive and any one can win :
my preference and not selection is :

race no 6 : 4-1-2-3
race no 7: 2-1-9-3
race no 8: 1-11-6-4

hyderabad 28/09/09

Arabian Dancer and Vijayrath should win their respective races , if on job.
note the flow of money and decide.

Pune- Hyderabad 27/09/09

Pune races

following should win

Thanda, Sea Queen and River Star.

Hyderabad- Chesapeake has a good chance to win - jockey is the question.

Mysore 2000 G

Sprint Star should win the race as he has class, form and breeding to help.

some classic aspirants - a short commentary

Some 3 year olds and their chances to win classics…

This year‘s crop of 3y olds has a fair mix of ‘foreign-conceived’ and India bred well performed runners and unlike last few years there is no clear outstanding 3yo in the list of future competitors except Jacqueline who is certainly the best performed than all others. Whether she will be able to retain her position during winter classics, only time will tell. He (the time) is certainly a great leveller – though homo-sapiens unknowingly do help him .

Some of the 3 year old who are likely to perform well in coming months are listed below( in random order) :

Jacqueline , Versaki, Aboline, Gypsy Magic,confiserie, Sea Ruler, Sprint Star ,Red Renegade, Red Dragon, Messalina, Cabriolet, Mystic Quest, Classerville, Fleet Indian, Al Fatah, Spot On and few more , I’ve not been able to recollect.at this moment.

Jacqueline, Aboline, Gypsy Magic, Sprint Star, Classerville have been discussed on this blog on 9 Jul 09 and will be reviewed only if they accept to run in future classics run in October or winter.

I’ll post a summarized view on rest of the runners.

In my opinion, 3 most important variables (parameters) to win a classic race are : a)past performance , b) current form c) pedigree . To reach a conclusion I need detais of all the 3 variables . Performance and pedigree details are available but the ‘current form ‘can be assessed only few days before the run . Therefore, the opinion expressed below must be correlated with the current track of the runner before arriving at a decision.

Versaki :

Versaki(Verglas- Ghassak) is sired by a sprinter (Versaki) out of a stayer(Ghassak) – an universally accepted formula and he has won all his races tilldate including the last race of 1800m.
Verglas is a reasonably good sire and his main attribute – speed complements the staying ability of Ghassak who is sired by Persian Bold whose ability to tranmit his traits are proven by his progeny. Highest Honour – sire of Verglas is a miler, a middle distance specialist.(winner of 1600 and 1800m –grade I race) .

Ghassak(Persian Bold-Anjuli) has Roman Dodage(6-2-2-4-0) indicating clearly that she is more comfortable at route races and did win a 2200m race and produced winners over 2000m and 2400m .Breeding is not an exact science but analogy and produce history reinforces the belief that Versaki can easily stay 2000m. Ghassak – dam of Versaki, an ‘old matron’ came to India at the ripe old age of 14 yrs and Versaki is her 8th foal – born in India. Her(Ghassak's) damsire , Northfields is a winner of 2 US regional Derbies which should add few points to Versaki. He should be a live contender for races upto 2000m. If his current form , at the time of run, matches the competitors he should win therace.

Confiserie :

I was impressed by Confiserie(Placerville- Sprungli) win on 20/9/09 at Pune. Clocking 1m 51.1s
For 1800m , which is 1.5 second better than Yana’s on the same day!
She had nondescript runs earlier- following the footsteps of her dam ,but this daughter of Sprungli can definitely match strides with other 3y olds and should beat them if tried seriously. Placerville is a wellknown sire - sire of innumerable classic winners but Sprungli has run and won several races in classI including few graded races reaching a handicap rating of 122 which brackets her in top 10% of her contemporaries!.She placed 3rd. in Indian Derby and her maternal grandsire – Treasure Leaf was a potent source of stamina . Her Derby run was a classic example of how races are run and won in India. Psychic Flame (odds-9/2 ?)- the eventual winner (a Calcutta Derby winner) was 6/7th at bend and Sprungli (10?1) ridden by PS Chauhan ( he has ridden her in most of the races) was 11/12th at the bend . On entering straight Chauhan let her go and she covered ground beating all but two - the winner and the runnerup and ended only 1 length behind the Derby winner !

She also had the bad(?) habit of trying to win only when the odds were decent - 5/1 or 6/1 or more ! Her pet distance was 1800/2000m but she could have won if tried seriously over 2400m. Anyway, ignoring the imponderables , one fact comes out clearly and that is - she was a stayer and could have done better.

I'm not going to write a thesis and will stop here to point out that Confiserie is the FIRST foal of Sprungli and her performance will decide whether SPRUNGLI will be a multimillion rupees dam or an ordinary mare . Many breeders believe that only first few produce of a mare perform well and that is the reason 90% of imported mares in India are 9 or 10 year old! Finally I must say that after Jacqueline and Versaki I rate Confiserie as the third best western India challenger and if prepared suitably and earnestly she will be a live threat to these ‘imported’ Indians!


(to be continued…)

some stray thoughts about Hyderabad Derby

October month racing of 3 year olds in India is very peculiar . 3 regional Derbies are run in this month –Hyderabad monsoon Derby run always on 2nd. October, Pune and Mysore Derby run in 2nd. or 3rd. week of this month of October . All these races are run at 2000m and participants are 3 year old only. Except USA , where Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes (2400m) are run in May/June every year I do not recollect any other country runs 3 ‘regional’ classics – all 2000m within a short span of one month.

But we do it – in India!


Hyderabad Derby on 2 Oct. , Pune Derby on 11 Oct. and Mysore Derby on 18 Oct. may bring out some unexpected and unpleasant results.

Why?
Because , there is no outstanding runner at any of these racing centers, although Jacqueline and Aboline at Bangalore have categorically established their superiority over others but will they be running in these regional classics is to be seen from the final acceptance.
If they accept to run, then they are the winners! But will they run?

Ignoring them and accepting that they may not run in these regional classics , I must sat that following are my preferred (not selections) ‘runners’ for the regional Derbies…in alphabetical order :


Hyderabad : Al Fatha, Fleet Indian, Messalina, Red Renegade and Spot on

Pune :Cabriolet, Confiserie, Red Dragon , Sea Ruler

Mysore :Classerville, Gypsy Magic, Leonardo,Mystic Quest , Sprint Star.

I don’t know who will accept to run these races and a detailed analysis isa waste of time and therefore, I’ll take only Hyderabad Derby at this stage . for others I’ll express my opinion after acceptance to save my time and effort.

Hyderabad monsoon Derby:

Many runners will take part in this race but most probably the winner will emerge from Al Fatha, Fleet Indian, Messalina, Red Renegade and Spot On , if they decide to run. They are all 3year old and the factors to be considered for winning a race are : 1) performance, 2) class, 3) current form ,4) intention of connections 5) jockey,trainer, equipment change. Except the 4th. Factor all other factors are available in public domain.

Based on these parameters let us see what we can deduce about these contestants.

Al Fatha( Steinbeck-Anguilla) has always won as a fluke and failed as a favorite! His sire is maternal grandsire of Set Alight and his dam has won a race upto 2000m and Anguilla’s damsire EverydayII was a known stayer . In race no 116 after loitering in rear he picked up speed and ended 5th. Nothing much to talk about but flukes have never given a chance to talk about them!

Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’desperately’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) and staying 2000m will be no problem for him. But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. The connections may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon !

Messalina(Alnasr Alwasheek-Palazzio) and Red Renegade(Placerville- Sky Rocket) though trained by same trainer but belong to two different and powerful owners and if decide to run together in monsoon Derby will give goose pimples to many !

Messalina, daughter of Pallazzio is a daughter of a sprinter/ miler and if Icebreaker(daughter of Iceberg – a sprinter) can win 2 races of 2400m why can’t Messalina win a 2000m race ? The class , the speed and training may help her.

Red Renegade won a 1600m race from start to finish in a reasonably good time and though his dam Sky Rocket has to show nothing to talk about but the grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced 2 very good stayers in Moment of Glory and Beautiful Babe(Placerville- Bazooka Babe) , who won upto 2400m .Of course, Beautiful Babe can be a cousin or aunt of Red Renegade depending upon your perception of inbreeding!
Red Renegade should have no problem to stay 2000m.

Can some body beat Fleet Indian – no, if he is serious . but will he be serious ?

3 year old winner- some opinions

3 year old runners …

A thoroughbred , whether born on 31 December(last year) or 1st. Jan this year will becomes 1 year old on 1st. Jan of next year of his/her date of birth . A runner born in January/February is MORE MATURE in July –Oct than the one born in April/May/June .

The winning chance of a first time runner(3 yo) must be considered on following basic parameters:

1) pedigree and its suitability for the distance of the race
2) current form( track work)
3) jockey
4) trainer’s performance

After June/July the factors to be taken in consideration are :

1) previous performance
2)current form
3) pedigree
4) jockey
5) connections intentions
6) trainer’s plan for that runner

studying these factors without prejudice a punter will get better results.

tips,tipsters and punters

Tips and Tipsters – some opinions


Horseracing is a game of skill…Finding a winner of a race needs evaluation of many factors…More factors you include in your analysis better should be the result…How many punters (gamblers) have time, patience to follow these basicprinciples…Very few, but they are quick to blame everyone – tipster, jockey,trainer and owner…
I am an occasional punter and a casual tipster.
I have read many postings and comments on various sites and blogs about free tips offered and their failure and the start of a blame-game against the tipsters. Sometimes a tipsters fails badly- many times not even one of their first choice wins and in one tipster’s case out of 21 selections given by him for 7 races only 2 won and those were second or third choices! But this happens occasionally and will happen again . Many times the race card tips fails miserably but no one writes about it ! Punters don’t stop buying that race card! But if a blogger’s tips fails the adverse comments and the language used is unbelievable.



Why?



The surfer who jumps from one site to another and from one blog to next thinks that it is his ‘birthright’ to get the tips which should win ‘always’ and most of the time. Who has given him this right or perhaps the idea? No one knows, perhaps. I certainly do not know…

Occasionally successful, sometimes failed tips, some wild tips(and their occasional success) made me realize that a tipster is always held in ridicule by these so called smarty Jones…Why?
Most of the tipsters are smalltime race aficionados who graduallygraduate to this position from humble beginnings and therefore,most of these gamblers take their opinions as a `necessary evil' andrely more on `khabar' and blame the tipster if their `forecast'fails… they don't have guts to blame the `khabri'….But what is a tip ?

A tip is a personal assessment/opinion about the winning chance ofa runner in a race. It can be right and of course it may be wrong…But who is a tipster ?A person who with sufficient/insufficient expertise provides this assessment/opinion…And who is a punter ?A person with money( hard earned/borrowed/black) and wants to makeit ‘grow’ - fast…But they are of 2 types…1) few- very few- who know horseracing, handicapping, anduse `khabar' to their advantage…they are privileged…ordinarypunter can not compete with them…2) the majority- called ‘public’, the majority of punters who buy a racebook before entering a racecourse and dream of winning a fortune…they are backbone of horseracing…
This, type/category of punters are those who depend on tips, followtipsters and blame them when they lose…they pay peanuts and desire toown thoroughbreds instead of monkeys… (said by a thoroughbredbreeder )…but what's the truth ?
early 70's a tipster, by the name – Galloper , used to chargeRs.20/- for a day's tip…gold was Rs 250/10gm. and real estate flats were sold at Rs.50/ to Rs. 70/- per sq.ft. at Andheri in Bombay… today gold is sold at Rs.10,000/-per 10 gm. and the minimum rate per sq.ft. at Andheri is Rs. 7000/-…


A tipster( say VM Dalal) still charges Rs.50/- for a day's tip while his predecessor charged Rs.20/- in 1970…what does a punter want ? pay peanuts and want to own a thoroughbredand not monkeys??Not convinced ? OK …let me give you a real life example…
Few years back, to be exact and to the point ,during 2003 Puneracing season ,RWITC in a rare show of wisdom announced a prizefor the best tipster of a PARTICULAR DAY… the announcement wasmade on 10th. raceday in September and the 18th. raceday inOctober was the D day. I have written an article earlier onthis subject and will not repeat it but will present only thesalient points…the study was limited and only readily available data was selectedThe study was carried out in the following way…The tipsters selected were from Mumbai and they were …1)Cole tipster 2)Cole track reporter 3)money Spinner 4)Lucky Spinner 5)Times of IndiaTO EVALUATE ONLY THEIR FIRST CHOICE WAS CONSIDEREDthe prize money was a whopping Rs. 100,000/-On 10th.day ( the day of announcement of the prize) theirperformance was as follows:COLE….COLE TR…M SPINNER…L SPINNER...T O I-20 ……… -26 ……. + 12……. -8…………… - 16 .

But after declaration of prize, their selections improved and on 18th. day the return was-16………..-23...............+18…………+6...,,,,,,,,,-36except TOI every other tipsters ROI has improved in anticipation of winning the bumper prize…after the prize was won by Gujrat Samachar tipster, theperformance of ALL the above tipsters went down…what does it prove ? pay peanuts – get monkeys…………………….Think before you blame the tipsters for their failure…