11/11/2009

sequel to let us play a game

Sequel to let us play the game

My aim to start this exercise ( experiment) is to test my system’s success/failure for all types of punters. Some punters play only one or sometimes 2 races in a day, some play 2 to 4 races and few try their luck with all the races of the day. To satisfy all these different types of punters I’ve designed this exercise.

My data is not stored on computer and my typing speed is slow(7/8WPM) and I workout my ratings manually incorporating various factors – speed, form, breeding, track variant penetrometre reading etc. All this takes 6 to 8 hours on a normal race day . Sometimes, e.g., Derby race or an important or complicated race I may have to spend 2 to 3 hours on one race itself! The methodology does not allow me more than ½ hour to decide the final selections – 3 for each race, 24 for 8 races and 1 selection for 1st. category of punter and 2 or more for 2nd. category.

The selections will , therefore, be posted on the blog - not in the morning, but at any time BEFORE the 1st race of the day and IF DELAYED then selections of the races ALREADY RUN will be DELETED from the list before the posting. Race to race posting will not be done because I would like to be present on the race course to bet my ‘tenner’ on my selections!

Let me repeat the rules of the game once more.

1) betting unit – Rs. 1000/- Capital Rs. 20,000/- each category.
2) incremental increase ( Rs.1000/- + 50% win of previous race) for Cat I & II only
3) constant unit(Rs.10/- or more) ,without incremental increase, for Cat III
4) ‘Jodi’ race- equal amount on both, Eachway- one unit on win 2 units on place
5) any race with prefix/suffix -OPEN race – unit bet on ALL 3 selections.
6) Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad centers only will be considered.
7) Tax @ 10 % will be considered for every bet
I will judge my success or failure based on these rules on Tuesday of next week .

Let me explain the method I’ll use from the selections given in Cat II for 7,8 and 9 November 2009 for Bangalore and Hyderabad races.

Bangalore : 7 November 2009
------------------------------------.

Name Investment Return Profit/(Loss) Capital Increase
Rashida-W 1000 1800 800 400
R’ford-EW 3000 0 (3000) 0
C’vating-W 1000 1650 650 350
GMagic-W 1300 3250 1950 950
S’Lady-EW 3000 3000 1000 3000
Tax (930)
Net Profit/Loss= Retun-Investment =9700-8930 = +Rs.770/-

Hyderabad : 8 November 2009

SScot-W 1000 1500 500 300
IM’tain-W 1200 0 (1200) 0
Cefiro-P 1000 1800 800 400
VSena-EW 3000 0 (3000) 0
Tax (620) 0
Net Profit/(loss) = 3300 -6820 = - Rs.3520/-
Hyderabad : 9 November 2009

Manduro-P 1000 4000 3000 1500
P’ti/T’H-W1250/1250 3250 750 350
P Doll-W 1400 9800 8400 4200
JG-EW 4200 0 (4200) 0
Tax (910)
Net Profit/(loss) =20410 – 10010 = + Rs. 10410/-
Net Profit/(loss) for the week = Rs.770 – Rs 3520 + Rs. 10410 =Rs. 7650/- Profit

15 comments:

Anonymous said...

dear chanakya sir , do you really believe odds would come down drastically if a few hundred punters bet on the horse - that being the case would you tip only after you put the tenner.

be kind enough to reply to this query.

Smart Alec said...

Ther seems to be some calculation error in your working.For Monday hydrabad bets the working is as follows:
Name BET PAYOUT PFT/LOSS
Manduro 1000 4000 + 3000
Pav/Tii 2500 3250 + 750
P.Doll 1400 9800 + 8400
JG 4200 0 - 4200
Tax 910 - 910
Total 10020 17050 +7050
So Net PFT is +7050 & Not 10410/=
Please Clarify.
Regards.
Smart Alec.

chanakya said...

anonymous,
you are great!out of roughly 18 to 20 thousand die-hard racegoes -including punters, spread allover India,I presume less than 1000 have access to internet and few hundred only are regular sufers.It includes all- breeders, owners, trainers, few jockeys,bookies and finally,punters.Very very few punters who surf the net can influence the odds an dthey don't follow the tipsters!

Finally,I must say that you are following two blogs simultaneously , i.e.,'at the same time' because I've NEVER mentioned that I'll put up my selections AFTER my tenner.Some one else had said so, not me.My selections will be on my blog BEFORE I LEAVE FOR THE RACECOURSE.It may be posted 1hour before the first race or 20 minutesbefore the firstrace or may be even posted 10 minutes BEFORE the first race of my selection is RUN .
I've already mentioned these points, categorically in my earlier postings.
chanakya

Pelikano said...

I would like to offer u a idea, every cell phone as a email address too apart from cell number. for example in AP Airtel it is like 984xxyyxxy@airtelap.com

May be thinking loud, but u can ask ur followers to submit the same. u can send an email to the mobile email address b4 u leave to race course, which will be received as SMS on phone.

Unknown said...

mr chankya

why 10 minutes or 20 minutes before the race.. dont post at all which better and saves you time to reach race ccourse in time

Dinesh

Anonymous said...

It Appears still you are making your selections , evenafter races are over. Do not waste our time. Be specific , if you tell or write something.

C.C. Gemini said...

do you really believe odds would come down drastically if a few hundred punters bet on the horse ....How silly and illogical Mr Annon Nov13...Even a "Set Alight" paid Rs 12 on place.That should answer UR question...

chanakya said...

Well, Smart Alec,
You are partially right , thanks for correcting me.
I’ve missed Rainbow Fog- one of the winner and incorporating her win in the winners list my revised return on Monday Hyderabad will be as follows:

Name Investment Return Profit/(loss) to profit a/c
SGold – odds > 6 – no bet
Manduro(P-3/1)- 1000-4000-3000--------1500
As per my rule 50% of win goes to profit account and 50% is added to next bet. As there are 2 choices 1000+ 1500= 2500 is divided on 2 choices(1250+ 1250) – one bet is lost(Tillcowscomehome) and Pavarotti has won. Therefore,
P/TCH 1250/1250-3250-750-350
Next bet should be Rainbow Fog (Even) which will have 1000+400(win share of previous race)
RF(E)- 1400- 2800-1400-700
Now next bet will be 1000+700 = 1700 on Party Doll.
PDoll(6/1)-1700-11900-10200-5100
As the winning is more than 1000, 50% of 10200=5100 will go on next bet which is John Galt and as the bet is EACHWAY(1:2) 1700 will be on win and 3400 will be on place. Win bet is lost but place bet at 3/10 will give a return of 3400+1020=4420 and 50% of it (Rs. 2210/-) will go for next bet and Rs 2210/- will go to profit account. The whole exercise will look like this now.

Manduro-P- 1000-4000-3000-1500
P/TH bothW- 1250/1250-3250-750-350
RF-W-1400-2800-1400- 700
PD-W-1700-11900-10200-5100
JG-EW-1700/3400-4420-2210
Tax-(1170)
Profit/(loss): return- investment=24370-12870=Rs.11,500/-

Therefore, net profit/(loss) for week = +Rs.770- Rs.3250+Rs 11500 = +Rs.9,020/-
I hope I have not committed any arithmetical error.
Smart Alec, please check and confirm. I’ll be grateful.

chanakya

chanakya said...

Pelikano,
thanks for your suggestion, but I'm afraid I'll not be able to follow it. Firstly, I'm a 'one man army'and have no helper ;secondly,it will not be possible to send sms or email as I've said earlier that I'm handicapped as I'm not a good typist, otherwise Iwould have given detailed or short comments to my selections.If you notice my articles come only on non-racedays because I've some spare time.
Therefore, I'll be posting my selections on my blog or any site which can publish it within 10 to 15 minutes.
thanks for your suggestion and interest.

chanakya


CC Gemini,

thanks for your mature remarks and understanding of horseracing in India.
regards,
chanakya

Mr anonymous-nov 14, 5.18am

yes , I was making my selections and putting my'tenner' on them and won those last 3 races of the day!
you are neither an invitee nor a welcome guest and therefore, do not have to waste your time to visit this blog.I may post my selections or articles 3 times a day or once in 10days on this blog is my prerogative and I'm sure you will appreciate that.
what I say or tell or write has to be according to my 'way' and if you can't comprehend it I would be grateful if you avoid visiting this blog.
It will help me and perhaps,few more people.
chanakya

chanakya said...

Dinesh, who told you that I'm posting selectios for you .Tipping on races is at 18th position in my list of priorities, I've mentioned clearly in my introductory article on this blog. Read it, you may understand what is the purpose of this blog.
chanakya

Easwaran said...

Respected Mr.Chanakya
greetings
your spending time on analyzing the races is simply great.you are deep in to it sir.
i happen to see your result too. they are quite attractive too.
as you said to some one in your reply, it is your right to post when ever and what ever time you like.
you said in earlier that your posting will be from 14 th nov 2009
i missed it on 14 th
is it possible for today 15 th nov 2009 hyd races sir
i really apriciate your simplicity in saying there is much to be learnt.
great sir
keep writing
it is good to see your posting
cheers
easwaran

C.C.Gemini said...

You have started getting disparagers on your blog,thats a sign of popularity..But a word of caution,If you are to reply to each one of them....then you are wasting your time...There were many in the past who tried to be a guiding "light" but failed...

Anonymous said...

F.O.That is why indiarace.com removed you.Keep your selections with you. You have opened blog for yourself it seems.

chanakya said...

anonymous,15Nov,6.15AM,

I never knew that early in the morning (6.15AM) when you get up, you greet your parents with these letters or words.Maybe, you have been brought up like that!
I've never been an employee- paid,unpaid or honorary of indiarace; then how can they remove me. It baffles as well as confuses me!But you have a constitutional right to have a'freedom to speech' or should we say-'speak'and can always exercise it.Goebbles (Hitler's PRO(minister) in WW II)said -tell a lie hundred times-some will believe and it will become a truth for them.I'm sure you are not a follower of that genius!

yes, I did open this blog,myself.
thanks and regards for reminding me...

chanakya

C.C.Gemini said...

In internet parlance an anonymous is refered to an orphan whose parents have deserted him. So please have a heart to pardon Mr Anonymous,15Nov....