12/25/2009

Bangalore -X'mas party?

yesterday was bookies' day and today also they will have upper hand ...
save money for the festival!

1) (1-7)-3
2) 3-8-4
3) 5-7-3
4) 6-5-8
5)(9-3-1)
6)12-9-1
7) (7-1-2-3)
8) (9-8-11)

12/22/2009

why punters lose money

Why punters do not win much at races ?

Because they think that the money they bet is their money and their decision (selection) can not be questioned (correct)…
Their thinking is right, because it is their money – but their decision/(s) may not be right…

I keep experimenting on my handicapping methods and introduce them in an innocuous way to the racing ‘pundits’ occasionally. I did it on IR.com during 2004/2005 and 2007 and also on IHRB forum during summer 2007…
I offered tips on Turfparrot.com under this plan in March/April 2008 and if someone among you would have believed in my ‘handicapping ability’ he would have won more than Rs. 1,30,000/-…

How ?

I started with Fleeting Arrow(3/1) on 29 Mar08 followed by Noble Prince (5/2) on 30 Mar08 and then on 5 Apr08 selected Absolute Reality(7/2) followed by Dancing Glory (16/10 – 20% = 13/10) on 6 Apr 08…

Only one tip for the day with unambiguous opinion…

A ROLL of Rs. 1000/- on these 4 tips will give a return of more than Rs.1,36,000/- (10% tax) or Rs.1,23,000/- (26% tax) within 9 days…

Sometimes, following others( stupid blabbers) also pays…


But the icing on the cake is the following tête-à-tête on the same site between me and the readers…(only a part is reproduced)



Userid
:
chanakya (Guest)
Reply
:
thanks to all for the kind words...I will try to post regularly about big events...well goldbug,after more than a year I have notseen you...
Date/Time
:
31/03/08 21:43:18




Userid
:
chanakya (Guest)
Reply
:
R Bijlani did predict clearly that F Arrow isbetter than others in IHRB forum before me but Ican not post my'free' selections before 11am...
Date/Time
:
01/04/08 23:39:40



Userid
:
tonguencheek (Guest)
Reply
:
WELL DONE!!!!CANT GET BETTER THAN THIS .
Date/Time
:
29/03/08 18:39:16



chanakya (Guest)
Fleeting Arrow
29/03/08 11:34:14 am
Fleeting Arrow should win from archipenko in atight finish... based purely on past performance ,speed rating,track surface(not TW) , only...
Userid
:
milo (Guest)
Reply
:
Well done you called it correctly again just likethe bangalore million.
Date/Time
:
30/03/08 18:30:36




Userid
:
goldbug
Reply
:
chanakyaji,you are making this a habit.keep it up.
Date/Time
:
31/03/08 17:37:24



Userid
:
chanakya (Guest)
Reply
:
yr appetite seems to be too big...my choice - Absolute Reality - was 7/2 at Mumbai...very good and reasonable odds...
Date/Time
:
06/04/08 11:52:08




chanakya (Guest)
St. Leger
30/03/08 10:52:08 am
Noble Prince runs off pace , but if can be brought within 3 to 4 lengths of the leader at 600 can win this race fromS Success and Yana... positioning at 600 to 5oo will decide the final outcome...

chanakya (Guest)
Dancing Glory
06/04/08 12:25:52 pm
Dancing Glory should win his race...


Userid
:
Prakash (Guest)
Reply
:
With Belose riding it, its a guessing game. Anyother rider & I would have my full bet.
Date/Time
:
06/04/08 13:22:25




chanakya (Guest)
Absolute Reality and Cavaradosi
05/04/08 12:22:58 pm
today all races are open and competitive andnon-favorites seem to have the upper hand... Absolute Reality may beat/lose by whisker from Cavaradosi... I'll still prefer A Reality...


Userid
:
chalukya (Guest)
Reply
:
there ws no third horse in the race.made your jobsimpler.Chankya ji try to give us some long pricedwinners.
Date/Time
:
05/04/08 22:35:19




Userid
:
chanakya (Guest)
Reply
:
yr appetite seems to be too big...my choice - Absolute Reality - was 7/2 at Mumbai...very good and reasonable odds...
Date/Time
:
06/04/08 11:52:08

I;m sure some of you might have read it earlier on TurfParrot.com . I gave 12 tips from 30/3/08 till 3/5/08 and 10 of them have won while 2 failed .

But that is not the point I want to make. The suspicion, doubt- on the ability of others makes a punter lose money by betting on false favorites created by phony tipsters .

In this game ,no one is expert, though some are knowledgeable; because the horse does not win or lose a race but he is made to win or lose by those homo sapiens who own/train/ride him.

12/21/2009

Appraisal - I

This will be my 'interest' for next few months. now I'll concentrate on Cat III races!!!

Let me remind the reader my method of calculating the win/loss account in this system of betting. When my selection is 3-5-1, it means that I prefer my first choice no 3 and will consider win/loss on this choice only ; (3-5)-1 means I’ll bet equal amount onboth the choices 3&5; (3-5-1) means I’ll bet equal amount on all the three choices 3,5 &1. I’ve calculated my win/loss under this rule till date and will follow it in future too.

I will calculate the win/loss by using bookmakers(Mumbai) odds against the race number in roman numerals ,e.g., III ( 6-2) means race number 3 and our selection have won at 6/1 and in the same race we lost our other 2 choices. For example, in race no. 3 our selection was (3-5-1) and horse no 1 won the race at odds of 6/1 then our result will show III(6-1-1) = +4 . I hope, I’ve explicitly clarified my system of ‘earning’ by betting on ‘all the races’ of the day!


Coming back to the battle ground. We have won + 1.1 units till 13 December 09 and we will start from there only.

Next day was Bangalore – 18 Dec 09. Following is the result of our efforts:
I(-1), II(-1), III(-1), IV(+ 5/2), V(-1), VI(-1), VII(-3), VIII(+12-4), tax(-1.4)
Net profit/loss = 14.50- 13.40 = + 1.10

Now we move on to 20 Dec 09 – Mumbai & Hyderabad.

Mumbai – 20 December 09
I(0 – no tip), II(-2), III(+13/10-1), IV(4/10), V(-1), VI (-1), VII(-1), VIII(+6-2), IX(+7/2-2), X(-1), XI(-2), XII(+6/4), tax (-1.8)
Net profit/loss = +12.65 – 14.8 = - 2.15


Hyderabad – 20 December 09

I(+1), II(-1), III( -1), IV(+6-2), V(+11/2), VI(+9/4), VII(-1), VIII(-1),
IX(-3), tax(-1.3)
Net profit/loss = +14.75 – 10.3 = 4.45

NET EARNINGS TILL DATE UNDER CATEGORY III
+1.10(till 13Dec) +1.10(Bng-18Dec) – 2.15(Mumbai -20Dec) +4 .45(Hyd 20Dec) = +4.50

What does this indicate ?

Betting during more than one month, on almost every race on every day at Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad on about 200+ races you can still win !!!

Appraisal - I

12/20/2009

MUMBAI AND HYDERABAD - 20/12/09

MUMBAI
Cat III
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
(7-1)-8
(2-8)-5
3-1
5
9-5-1
8-7-4
(1-16-15)
(8-7-1)
11-8-3
(4-8)-1
3-1-4


HYDERABAD
3
3-8-4
8-3-5
(1-6-7)
3-1-2
5-4-1
7-13-3
1-3-7
(6-1-14)