Mysore Derby contenders : A short Preview.
With 40+ entries it is saddening to see that only 7 have accepted to race confirming that horseracing has become a commercial game(sport).
I’ll analyse the chances of following runners only – one of which is likely to win this classic.
1) Fleet Indian
2) Messalina
3) Red Renegade
4) Sprint Star
Messalina (Alnasr Alwasheek-Palazzio) has an ‘inverted’ pedigree. By ‘inverted’ I mean that mostly the sire of a classic contestant is chosen as a sprinter/miler while the dam normally is a route runner or a stayer . In Messalina’s case it is ‘ulta’. The sire is a miler/ stayer who has produced several Derby winners while the dam is a confirmed sprinter/miler. But same was the case with Icebreaker (Alnasr Alwasheek- Iceberg) who won 2 races of 2400m and placed in Indian Derby. These ‘aberrations’- (I don’t consider them aberrations) in normal situations weaken the classical breeding theories. These anomalies if correlated with latest advances in genetic research will confirm that old presumptions, were not wrong. But this is not the time for technical discussions and let us concentrate on the racing prospect of the runner. Though a close scrutiny of Iceberg and Palazzio reveals a very close similarity and equality between their racing performance and pedigree components!
Messalina (Roman dosage: 10-1-9-4-0) clearly indicates that she can stay 2000m because her dosage is very similar to Icebreaker(12-1-11-4-0) and if Icebreaker can win 2 races of 2400m , Messalina can also win a race of 2000m! But these are conjectures borne out of similes which may or may not be true. We will analyse the pedigree a bit more carefully.
Alnasr Alwasheek, the sire of Messalina has produced two Indian Derby winners and
A number of black type winners. Sadlers Wells-paternal grandsire was a close second in French Derby(2400m)
Palazzio(8-3-8-0-1) though termed a sprinter has a strain of staying blood and will reinforce the staying traits of the sire enabling her to go the distance of 2000m. Palazzio’s dam – Stately Home(2-2-2-0-0) has won few regional classics at Ooty and Delhi and one of her son Rapier did place III in Indian Derby .Santiago(Hafir)(3-4-4-1-2) – sire of Stately Home reinforces the staying ability of Messalina.
Performance of Messalina on the race track had been eye catching. After winning a nondescript race during Bangalore summer she tried her luck in a grade 2 race(62) at Pune and ended second , 1 ½ lengths behind Sea Ruler who has beaten Cabriolet convincingly by conceding 3 kg. and Cabriolet lost Pune Derby by neck. She(Messalina) revealed her class in this defeat! She was 6 lengths behind the winner at 600m and ended 1 ½ lengths behind at the winning post. Correlate these dry facts and you may realize that she is one of the prime contender for the winning bracket . Of course her Hyderabad 1000G win only reinforces this observation.
Sprint Star( Ontario- Royal Retreat)-(3-1-6-4-0) is a funny name for a thoroughbred whose pedigree says that he is an outright stayer and not a sprinter! After his win in Colts Trial the connections gladly paid Rs. 10,00,000/- to enter him in the Bangalore Derby and lying last but one till600m ended VII, a neck behind Gypsy Magic.
Sprint Star is the son of Ontario(4-4-6-8-2) a hybrid of speed ,precociousness (Storm Cat, Storm Bird) coupled with endurance, stubbornness, durability (Bustino , Jim French). A strange genetic mix of speed (from Storm Cat and Storm Bird) and stamina and endurance (from Bustino and Jim French) has bestowed an acceleration and the ability to sustain it- provided it is exploited correctly, successfully and improved gradually. This was proved successfully when he won Mysore 2000Guineas. With Bustino’s staying capacity and Jim French’s indefatigable (he ran 11 races in 4 months- 10 of them Stakes races!) traits he is sure to make his adversaries sweat for every inch of the final furlong, provided he is ‘sincere’ unlike Bangalore Derby ! This race is a tossup between him and Messalina !
Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. His sire Bold Russian(8-5-8-8-1) and dam Afrodita(5-2-3-4-0) who did not race but did produce Brown Sugar (Hyderabad Derby Winner) and Arizza who placed III in Bangalore Oaks confirmed that staying 2000m or 2400m should be easy for him. But his performance belies his pedigree!
He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’sincerely’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) .But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 (Bangalore) and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. His ‘performance’ in Hyderabad Derby was another ‘repeat’ performance. From draw no 1 he led for first 50m and fell back to IV/V on rails till 800m moving with Fair Option and Sparks in mid bunch but moved out gradually to far out and while Sparks took turn 3 horse wide he was 8 ‘horse wide’ at bend and 2 ½ lengths behind Fair Option at 200m. Hard ridden now he ended Nk behind Fair Option and 3+ lengths behind the winner. If remained at rails in a soft going and waited he would have saved 3 to 4 lengths !
The connections and the rider may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon ! How he runs in Mysore Derby will be interesting to watch.
Red Renegade(9-3-15-0-1) won a 1600m race from start to finish in a reasonably good time and though his dam Sky Rocket has to show nothing to talk about but the grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced 2 very good stayers in Moment of Glory and beautiful Babe. He tried his luck in Hyderabad Monsoon Derby and was prominent till bend before fading out in the straight. Can he win Mysore Derby ? Maybe, I am not sure...
10/16/2009
10/14/2009
Natural Knight -some observations
After receiving mails of Seenu and Rajendra I was reluctant to write about Native Knight because it takes me 3 to 6 hrs to study ,analyse and then write about a thoroughbred. But after closely looking at his 2 races I was compelled to write about him. I’ve ignored him for the Derby because he neither had sufficient experience nor any exceptional track work .
But when I checked a bit closely I was surprised to note that he was 1 ½ lengths behind Cabriolet in race no 143 and again in Pune Derby he was only 1 ½ lengths behind hard-ridden Cabriolet! Race no 143 was his first run and Derby was the second run of racing career! Fantastic improvement ! This realization made me look a bit carefully into his pedigree .
Native Knight( Placerville- Native Tactics) apparently has no great bloodlines and is one of 70 odd produce of Placeville of 2006 .Though his dam has won 6 races but they were all sprint races and do not strengthen his chances for classic distances. Then how could he finish 1 ½ lengths behind two hard ridden class I/II runners ?
Native Tactics(Blue Bird-Miss Oriental) is a ‘got abroad’ who came in foal and did her racing in India-trained by DR Byramjee and owned by D Khaitan .Blue Bird – born in USA was a champion sprinter who raced in Ireland and placed in several graded races.
Miss Oriental(Habitat-Miss Bangkok) with Roman dosage(29-7-9-1-0) did not race and after producing 2 nondescript progeny in USA, was imported and Native Tactics is her first foal born in India. She was subsequently covered always by Young Senor and produced Coral Gables and OnnuOnnuOnnu –both champion sprinters.
Thus apparently , the immediate female line gives the impression that Native Knight may do well in sprint races . But that is not true.
A breeding axiom – reinforced and confirmed by genetic studies states that many times the attributes of grand children or great grandchildren resemble more than the next generation ( son/ daughter) .
Storm Bird(Roman Dosage, 11-7-16-0-0) -sire of Blue Bird was also sire of Storm Cat (covering fee $ 500,000), was a champion sprinter and Habitat(dosage 13-14-13-4-2) – sire of Miss Oriental was a champion miler but Ivory Dawn- the dam of Blue Bird who never raced had a dosage(4-21-17-2-0) .
Ivory Dawn( Sir Ivor-Dusky Evening) has a very impressive parentage . Sir Ivor(Sir Gaylord-Attica) was the winner of many classics including Epsom Derby and his ‘turn of foot’ was amazing. In Epsom Derby ,ridden by Lester Piggot ,he ran off the pace holding his horse till 200m and found himself 4 lengths behind connaught –ridden by young Sandy Barclay .He loosened the reigns , gave a tap to Sir Ivor and he won easing up by one length.
His trainer – Vincent O’Brien had placed a bet of 500 pounds each way for Epsom Derby win , with a bookie BEFORE Sir Ivor started his racing career!
He is also very well ‘sex balanced’ with Sir Gaylord who is sire of both –Sir Ivor from the sire side and Habitat from the dam side ( I hope puritans will forgive me for making these silly statements – because I’m writing for a common punter) . Sir Gaylord a English horse went to USA and after beating them on their home ground in some races he became the favorite for Kentucky Derby but due to a hairline fracture few days before the race his Triple Crown dream was shattered . He was retired to stud .
The question now is ? Did Native Knight receive some of the traits from these versatile and superior thoroughbreds?
The answer is : he did. His two runs in the company of the best western India runners confirm this .
But will he rise to the challenge? Depends on the training methods and the intentions …
Only time will tell…
But when I checked a bit closely I was surprised to note that he was 1 ½ lengths behind Cabriolet in race no 143 and again in Pune Derby he was only 1 ½ lengths behind hard-ridden Cabriolet! Race no 143 was his first run and Derby was the second run of racing career! Fantastic improvement ! This realization made me look a bit carefully into his pedigree .
Native Knight( Placerville- Native Tactics) apparently has no great bloodlines and is one of 70 odd produce of Placeville of 2006 .Though his dam has won 6 races but they were all sprint races and do not strengthen his chances for classic distances. Then how could he finish 1 ½ lengths behind two hard ridden class I/II runners ?
Native Tactics(Blue Bird-Miss Oriental) is a ‘got abroad’ who came in foal and did her racing in India-trained by DR Byramjee and owned by D Khaitan .Blue Bird – born in USA was a champion sprinter who raced in Ireland and placed in several graded races.
Miss Oriental(Habitat-Miss Bangkok) with Roman dosage(29-7-9-1-0) did not race and after producing 2 nondescript progeny in USA, was imported and Native Tactics is her first foal born in India. She was subsequently covered always by Young Senor and produced Coral Gables and OnnuOnnuOnnu –both champion sprinters.
Thus apparently , the immediate female line gives the impression that Native Knight may do well in sprint races . But that is not true.
A breeding axiom – reinforced and confirmed by genetic studies states that many times the attributes of grand children or great grandchildren resemble more than the next generation ( son/ daughter) .
Storm Bird(Roman Dosage, 11-7-16-0-0) -sire of Blue Bird was also sire of Storm Cat (covering fee $ 500,000), was a champion sprinter and Habitat(dosage 13-14-13-4-2) – sire of Miss Oriental was a champion miler but Ivory Dawn- the dam of Blue Bird who never raced had a dosage(4-21-17-2-0) .
Ivory Dawn( Sir Ivor-Dusky Evening) has a very impressive parentage . Sir Ivor(Sir Gaylord-Attica) was the winner of many classics including Epsom Derby and his ‘turn of foot’ was amazing. In Epsom Derby ,ridden by Lester Piggot ,he ran off the pace holding his horse till 200m and found himself 4 lengths behind connaught –ridden by young Sandy Barclay .He loosened the reigns , gave a tap to Sir Ivor and he won easing up by one length.
His trainer – Vincent O’Brien had placed a bet of 500 pounds each way for Epsom Derby win , with a bookie BEFORE Sir Ivor started his racing career!
He is also very well ‘sex balanced’ with Sir Gaylord who is sire of both –Sir Ivor from the sire side and Habitat from the dam side ( I hope puritans will forgive me for making these silly statements – because I’m writing for a common punter) . Sir Gaylord a English horse went to USA and after beating them on their home ground in some races he became the favorite for Kentucky Derby but due to a hairline fracture few days before the race his Triple Crown dream was shattered . He was retired to stud .
The question now is ? Did Native Knight receive some of the traits from these versatile and superior thoroughbreds?
The answer is : he did. His two runs in the company of the best western India runners confirm this .
But will he rise to the challenge? Depends on the training methods and the intentions …
Only time will tell…
10/13/2009
Versaki and Indian Derby
Versaki can not win Indian Derby
Pune Derby has thrown many interesting pointers for the next Mumbai season. It has exposed the form and the limitations of several runners. In my earlier article I emphatically said that Versaki will win Pune Derby and my next choice was between Cabriolet and Confiserie .After analyzing the track work it was clear that Cabriolet is the next best runner .Post race it was evident that Versaki has reached his peak and though upto 1600m he may still retain his advantage ,but for races 2000m and above he is vulnerable.
In fact it is too early to make a comment on Indian Derby at this point of time and though he will stay the Derby distance , he will lose if Cabriolet and Jacqueline decide to run and have the ‘fitness’ shown on Derby day. But one thing is clear that next year’s Indian Derby will not be a one horse race and Versaki has little chance to win it ,unless he improves his behaviour and running style . In addition to these three one or two more unexposed challengers may also appear on the Derby day ,- who knows ?
Pune Derby has thrown many interesting pointers for the next Mumbai season. It has exposed the form and the limitations of several runners. In my earlier article I emphatically said that Versaki will win Pune Derby and my next choice was between Cabriolet and Confiserie .After analyzing the track work it was clear that Cabriolet is the next best runner .Post race it was evident that Versaki has reached his peak and though upto 1600m he may still retain his advantage ,but for races 2000m and above he is vulnerable.
In fact it is too early to make a comment on Indian Derby at this point of time and though he will stay the Derby distance , he will lose if Cabriolet and Jacqueline decide to run and have the ‘fitness’ shown on Derby day. But one thing is clear that next year’s Indian Derby will not be a one horse race and Versaki has little chance to win it ,unless he improves his behaviour and running style . In addition to these three one or two more unexposed challengers may also appear on the Derby day ,- who knows ?
10/11/2009
derby day choice
my choice on Pune Derby day are :
1)Blueray
2)Jacqueline
3)Versaki
4)Estevez
5)True Elegance
1)Blueray
2)Jacqueline
3)Versaki
4)Estevez
5)True Elegance
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