MY CHOICE
1)5
2)(6-2-8)
3)10-3P-5
4)4-1
5)(3)-1-5
6)4-7-1
7)(1-4-8)
8)(2-7P)-9
4/01/2012
3/31/2012
3/29/2012
3/25/2012
Mumbai 25/3/12
my choice
1)2-3
2)(1-7)-3
3)3-6-7)
4)(8-6P)-4
5)4
6)3-7-1
7(5-1)-3
8(1-2-8)
IT IS USELESS TO WASTE TIME FOR POSTING TIPS. I'LL DO IT OCCASIONALLY TO PROVE MY POINT - GOOD HANDICAPPING GIVES BETTER RESULTS
1)2-3
2)(1-7)-3
3)3-6-7)
4)(8-6P)-4
5)4
6)3-7-1
7(5-1)-3
8(1-2-8)
IT IS USELESS TO WASTE TIME FOR POSTING TIPS. I'LL DO IT OCCASIONALLY TO PROVE MY POINT - GOOD HANDICAPPING GIVES BETTER RESULTS
3/06/2012
Mysore - 6/3/12
Last day races unpredictable , but astologically-
first race - favorite may lose
third race - favorite may lose
tenth race - favorite should win
first race - favorite may lose
third race - favorite may lose
tenth race - favorite should win
3/04/2012
BANGALORE- 4/3/12
MY CHOICE
1)(12-6)-4
2)(4-5)-9
3)9-6-3
4)9-12-7
5)12-11-4
6)(7-1-5) FAVORITE WILL LOSE
7)(6)-7-8
8)15-1-12-7
9)5-1-8
1)(12-6)-4
2)(4-5)-9
3)9-6-3
4)9-12-7
5)12-11-4
6)(7-1-5) FAVORITE WILL LOSE
7)(6)-7-8
8)15-1-12-7
9)5-1-8
3/03/2012
BANGALORE- 3/3/12
MY CHOICE
1)7-1-3FAVORITE SHOULD WIN
2)(9-8-6)favorite may lose
3)4-3-11
4)(7-3)-1
5)11-4-1
6)(4-1-9)
7)(2-5)-11
8)10-2-5P
9)2-4P-6
1)7-1-3FAVORITE SHOULD WIN
2)(9-8-6)favorite may lose
3)4-3-11
4)(7-3)-1
5)11-4-1
6)(4-1-9)
7)(2-5)-11
8)10-2-5P
9)2-4P-6
2/25/2012
BANGALORE-25/2/12
MY CHOICE
1)7-8P-9
2)3-2-1
3)2
4)(4-10-5)FAV WILL LOSE
5)6-10-5
6)(5)-1
7)(5)-1-7
8)5-1-7
9)4-8-11
1)7-8P-9
2)3-2-1
3)2
4)(4-10-5)FAV WILL LOSE
5)6-10-5
6)(5)-1
7)(5)-1-7
8)5-1-7
9)4-8-11
2/24/2012
2/19/2012
MUMBAI -19/2/12
MY CHOICE
1)4
2)4-1-7 FLUKE MAY WIN
3)6-1
4)4-6
5)4-3
6)1-8-12
7)(3-4-6)
8)(14-7-1)
9)7-12-15
1)4
2)4-1-7 FLUKE MAY WIN
3)6-1
4)4-6
5)4-3
6)1-8-12
7)(3-4-6)
8)(14-7-1)
9)7-12-15
2/16/2012
2/05/2012
MUMBAI -DERBY DAY -2012
MY CHOICE
1)8-2-3
2)2
3)5-12-1
4)10
5)1
6)(5-2-1)
7)(12-6-11-7)
8)(3-2)
9)7-1-5
THIS WILL BE MY LAST POST ABOUT SELECTIONS...
1)8-2-3
2)2
3)5-12-1
4)10
5)1
6)(5-2-1)
7)(12-6-11-7)
8)(3-2)
9)7-1-5
THIS WILL BE MY LAST POST ABOUT SELECTIONS...
2/03/2012
INDIAN DERBY-2012 IS AN OPEN RACE
Indian Derby -2012 will be remembered for many unique reasons. First will be that there is no clear favorite and half of the field has more or less equal chance to win this race. But the most intriguing and almost unbelievably true , reason will be that the connections of the runners are still confused and unsure to select a jockey for their wards because a wrong choice and a wrong tactical move during the race will convert a probable winner into a loser!
Let us try to decipher this enigmatic race.
Out of 13 runners , I think that 7 or may be 8 runners have a chance to win the race and they are –ITSpotlight, Picasso, Pronto Pronto, Star Marquess, Hills & Stars, Smashing, Cardinal – not in any order of preference, and Ranthambore. Almost 8 out of 13! I could have added Field Marshal also, but tried to reduce the number of contestants! I’ll give a brief account of these runners , as per my observations, and follow it up by my opinionated (biased?) remarks. The pick up of the runners is random and not as per my personal choice. Ladies first , is the norm and I’m following that.
In the Spotlight(DOSAGE POINT 10-1-9-4-0) has won Kolkata Oaks in 1m 29.5s(PNR-1.3)and the Derby easing up in 2m32.8s(1.2cm.). she is not a late foal but a late starter – reason unknown . Her dam has won 2400m race and grand dam-Aroma has won/placed in 2000-2800m races . she is travelling well allover the country and winning grueling long distance races confirms that she is a frontline contender for this race . Being uncomfortable on the Mumbai track is a humbug opinion .
Smashing (4-5-13-2-0) has won Indian Oaks- thrashing her opponents hollow. Her sire is basically a sprinter –at the most a miler but that is the norm for most of the present day sires . you will hardly find a sire who is truly a stayer in the real sense. Her dam Exquisite(5-0-11-4-0) did not race ,though sired by Galileo – a top class sire and her grand dam Trois Graces(6-3-11-0-0) won only one race out of 12 starts. Smashing’s Oaks win , a slow run race does not strengthen her chance to win this Derby which should be run at a scorching pace- but does not exclude her also.
Hills & Stars(9-1-13-2-1) is a stayer in the real sense and though her dam – Altitude(9-2-8-1-0) did not race , her progeny – Flashing Star did win Bangalore winter Derby and was a short head second in Invitation Cup to his stable mate. She is the next best filly in the race.
Looking at the colts/geldings – let me start with Picasso.
Picasso(7-1-10-0-0) winner of PBMMillion had been a disappointment after this win and though he is out of Allies Serenade -a close 4th to Psychic Flame in All Ladies Indian Derby he is missing the winning bracket more often by his antics rather than by any bloodline weakness. Allies Seranade, RahysSeranade, Allied forces, Sooni are all stamina providers to their runner and Derby distance should not be a problem for him. Black Cash may be lacking in stamina but his ancestors do not lack it. He is only male who can challenge and maybe defeatPronto Pronto provided jockey uses correct tactical move.
Pronto Pronto(4-3-15-0-0) is another example of incomplete assessment of a thoroughbred’s capability vis-à-vis speed and stamina parameters by ignoring the contribution of the female in the performance. While inbreeding is common and widely practiced in thoroughbred breeding it is a taboo for homo sapiens. But when the father and mother are accomplished in a field the offspring normally performs well ,confirming, breed the best to the best! PP seems (or is he?) to be as lazy as Squanderer –though does not belong to his class and always wins by small margins to confuse the analysts about his ability. He should be among the top 3 on the board.
Star Marquess(7-3-14-0-0) is one of the best stayer in this group – perhaps the best stayer . His dam Mawaheb(15-7-12-2-2) has won only one race but that was a 2200m race. His sire Intikhab has won Queen Ann Stakes(1600m) at Royal Ascot thrashing his rivals by 8 lengths in a very good time . Intikhab does not like soft going – was it the reason of improved performance of his progeny( Star Marquess) at Mumbai where surface is hard and going is mostly ‘good to fast’. Indian Derby should provide the answer to this question. He is a contender –definitely.
Cardinal (12-3-10-0-1) winner of Ruia cup is by Haunting Beauty dam of Six Speed who during her racing career has beaten Allaire – a stayer ,every time upto 1600m but lost to her beyond that -also every time. Though his performance in 2000G is commendable and exceptional in Ruia cup ,he may find it difficult at 2400m.
Now a fluke – called Ranthambore(4-3-7-0-0). His win –rider looking back and easing at 200m ,still winning 1600m in 1m 37.5s comparable to winning time of 1000G and 2000G gives him an edge that bring a Mohawk to the fore. Stay he can – winning though may be difficult but is not impossible because there is no outstanding runner in the field.
Final analysis – the winner may be one of the following :
In the spotlight-Picasso-Pronto Pronto- Hills & Stars -Star Marquess .
Who he/she will be – probably decided by the tactics and the luck of the race…
Let us try to decipher this enigmatic race.
Out of 13 runners , I think that 7 or may be 8 runners have a chance to win the race and they are –ITSpotlight, Picasso, Pronto Pronto, Star Marquess, Hills & Stars, Smashing, Cardinal – not in any order of preference, and Ranthambore. Almost 8 out of 13! I could have added Field Marshal also, but tried to reduce the number of contestants! I’ll give a brief account of these runners , as per my observations, and follow it up by my opinionated (biased?) remarks. The pick up of the runners is random and not as per my personal choice. Ladies first , is the norm and I’m following that.
In the Spotlight(DOSAGE POINT 10-1-9-4-0) has won Kolkata Oaks in 1m 29.5s(PNR-1.3)and the Derby easing up in 2m32.8s(1.2cm.). she is not a late foal but a late starter – reason unknown . Her dam has won 2400m race and grand dam-Aroma has won/placed in 2000-2800m races . she is travelling well allover the country and winning grueling long distance races confirms that she is a frontline contender for this race . Being uncomfortable on the Mumbai track is a humbug opinion .
Smashing (4-5-13-2-0) has won Indian Oaks- thrashing her opponents hollow. Her sire is basically a sprinter –at the most a miler but that is the norm for most of the present day sires . you will hardly find a sire who is truly a stayer in the real sense. Her dam Exquisite(5-0-11-4-0) did not race ,though sired by Galileo – a top class sire and her grand dam Trois Graces(6-3-11-0-0) won only one race out of 12 starts. Smashing’s Oaks win , a slow run race does not strengthen her chance to win this Derby which should be run at a scorching pace- but does not exclude her also.
Hills & Stars(9-1-13-2-1) is a stayer in the real sense and though her dam – Altitude(9-2-8-1-0) did not race , her progeny – Flashing Star did win Bangalore winter Derby and was a short head second in Invitation Cup to his stable mate. She is the next best filly in the race.
Looking at the colts/geldings – let me start with Picasso.
Picasso(7-1-10-0-0) winner of PBMMillion had been a disappointment after this win and though he is out of Allies Serenade -a close 4th to Psychic Flame in All Ladies Indian Derby he is missing the winning bracket more often by his antics rather than by any bloodline weakness. Allies Seranade, RahysSeranade, Allied forces, Sooni are all stamina providers to their runner and Derby distance should not be a problem for him. Black Cash may be lacking in stamina but his ancestors do not lack it. He is only male who can challenge and maybe defeatPronto Pronto provided jockey uses correct tactical move.
Pronto Pronto(4-3-15-0-0) is another example of incomplete assessment of a thoroughbred’s capability vis-à-vis speed and stamina parameters by ignoring the contribution of the female in the performance. While inbreeding is common and widely practiced in thoroughbred breeding it is a taboo for homo sapiens. But when the father and mother are accomplished in a field the offspring normally performs well ,confirming, breed the best to the best! PP seems (or is he?) to be as lazy as Squanderer –though does not belong to his class and always wins by small margins to confuse the analysts about his ability. He should be among the top 3 on the board.
Star Marquess(7-3-14-0-0) is one of the best stayer in this group – perhaps the best stayer . His dam Mawaheb(15-7-12-2-2) has won only one race but that was a 2200m race. His sire Intikhab has won Queen Ann Stakes(1600m) at Royal Ascot thrashing his rivals by 8 lengths in a very good time . Intikhab does not like soft going – was it the reason of improved performance of his progeny( Star Marquess) at Mumbai where surface is hard and going is mostly ‘good to fast’. Indian Derby should provide the answer to this question. He is a contender –definitely.
Cardinal (12-3-10-0-1) winner of Ruia cup is by Haunting Beauty dam of Six Speed who during her racing career has beaten Allaire – a stayer ,every time upto 1600m but lost to her beyond that -also every time. Though his performance in 2000G is commendable and exceptional in Ruia cup ,he may find it difficult at 2400m.
Now a fluke – called Ranthambore(4-3-7-0-0). His win –rider looking back and easing at 200m ,still winning 1600m in 1m 37.5s comparable to winning time of 1000G and 2000G gives him an edge that bring a Mohawk to the fore. Stay he can – winning though may be difficult but is not impossible because there is no outstanding runner in the field.
Final analysis – the winner may be one of the following :
In the spotlight-Picasso-Pronto Pronto- Hills & Stars -Star Marquess .
Who he/she will be – probably decided by the tactics and the luck of the race…
1/31/2012
1/28/2012
MUMBAI 28/1/12
TODAY SEEMS TO BE FLUKE DAY
MY CHOICE
1)9-2P-1
2)4
3)(8-4P-15)
4)9-7-8
5(9)
6(4-6)-9
7)(9)-6-5
8)2-7-10
9)(7-3-4)
10)4E-2-1
11)12-6P-1
MY CHOICE
1)9-2P-1
2)4
3)(8-4P-15)
4)9-7-8
5(9)
6(4-6)-9
7)(9)-6-5
8)2-7-10
9)(7-3-4)
10)4E-2-1
11)12-6P-1
1/27/2012
BANGALORE DERBY DAY- 27/1/12
MY CHOICE
1)2-1-11
2)2
3)(6P-1-8)
4)(5-9)-6P
5)(2)-5-9
6)(9-4-7)
7)(9-8)-5
8)10-6-9
9)(6-2)-4
1)2-1-11
2)2
3)(6P-1-8)
4)(5-9)-6P
5)(2)-5-9
6)(9-4-7)
7)(9-8)-5
8)10-6-9
9)(6-2)-4
1/22/2012
MUMBAI 22/1 12
MY CHOICE
1)(6-4)-2
2)1-2
3)(6-1)-5
4)3-11P-13
5)(6-7-5)
6)2-1
7)(3)-8-1
8)1-2-10
9)3E-2-9
10)(10)-2P-7
1)(6-4)-2
2)1-2
3)(6-1)-5
4)3-11P-13
5)(6-7-5)
6)2-1
7)(3)-8-1
8)1-2-10
9)3E-2-9
10)(10)-2P-7
1/21/2012
1/20/2012
1/19/2012
MUMBAI 19/1/12
MY CHOICE
1)2-3-5
2)4-1-9
3)4-1
4)8-2P-9
5)(13-1)-9
6)(4)-6-10
7)(9-1-3)
8)(4E-6-2)
9)3-2-1-14
10)1
1)2-3-5
2)4-1-9
3)4-1
4)8-2P-9
5)(13-1)-9
6)(4)-6-10
7)(9-1-3)
8)(4E-6-2)
9)3-2-1-14
10)1
1/15/2012
MUMBAI 15/1/12
MY CHOICE
1)XXXXXXXX
2)XXXXXXXX FLUKE WILL WIN
3)8-4-11
4)4-2-7
5)5-8P-7
6)(8-6P)-2
7)2
8)9-5-4
9)11-5P-4
10)(7-5-12)
1)XXXXXXXX
2)XXXXXXXX FLUKE WILL WIN
3)8-4-11
4)4-2-7
5)5-8P-7
6)(8-6P)-2
7)2
8)9-5-4
9)11-5P-4
10)(7-5-12)
1/12/2012
Mumbai -12/1/12
my choice
1)4-2-5
2)6-1-9
3)4-5-8
4)(5-4p)-8
5)4-1-2
6)1
7)7E-1-4
RACES NUMBER 4,5,6,7 HAVE BEEN ASSESSED WRT PNR VALUE ALSO
1)4-2-5
2)6-1-9
3)4-5-8
4)(5-4p)-8
5)4-1-2
6)1
7)7E-1-4
RACES NUMBER 4,5,6,7 HAVE BEEN ASSESSED WRT PNR VALUE ALSO
1/08/2012
Penetrometer reading- some opinions,observations
Penetrometer Reading(PNR) is a parameter which ,many times, helps a punter to select a runner who has been missed by many professional tipsters-maybe due to lack of time or understanding of this parameter. Examples abound, but I’ll give only few to highlight this observation, which will help in catching a well priced winner.
PNR value is normally taken 2 hrs. before the first race and any subsequent rain, wind speed, weather change will not be reflected in the results misleading the handicappers, many times.
Lovely Kiss won race no 5 on opening day of Bangalore summer 2011 when PNR was 5.1 and going was soft to heavy, clocked better timing than a class I horse, next day , when PNR was 4.6.She was trained by an average trainer and did not have any hype attached to its performance. She was entered as a final entry and won at an odds of 7/2, Fillies stakes -race no 81, easily beating the favorite. She went downhill after that because of physical ailments , which were not disclosed by the connections to racing punters.
Alma Mater started her racing career from Pune season . She ran her first race in soft going (PNR 2.0) on monsoon track which is 1.5 to 2.5 second slower than the main track, depending on the distance. The track was officially declared soft and though winning a race on a soft track in first outing is nothing great but she clocked better timing than a class I horse in her first run is certainly commendable! After winning her second race again on monsoon track (PNR 1.9) in a time which was 0.4second slower than ’Track record’ should be taken note. Running first race of career in bad going and bettering the time of a class I runner is a clear cut clue of the superiority of a runner. She ran as an outsider(15/1) in Indian 1000Guineas and duly won the race defeating many well performed runners. Except one out of 30+ tipsters none gave her a chance!
Hyderabad race no 150 run on 2January 12. As usual most of the experts were hooked on Imran/Chauhan combination to find a winner- while the winner was Odalis. Look at the PNR values of the previous runs of these runners:
Royal Craft-won race 68- 1100m-1m8.2s-PNR 3.4
Odalis-won race 1- 1000m- 1m 0.3s – PNR 3
………race79(III-12length)-1m11.7s-PNR2.9
Rustic Gal-race44(III)-1000m-1m0.7s-PNR 2.4
………..won 85 – 1100m-1m7.8s…..-PNR3.0
Odalis has performed better than her nearest rivals ,if we consider 1000m and 1100m runs and has a good chance to win – which she did.
Penetrometer reading, if analysed carefully and correlated to other parameters does help, most of the time ,to win a race. A clear understanding and relationship with other factors will regularly provide winners at better price.
PNR reading/value is not a system/methodology/parameter to provide a ready made winner but is a indicator ,when applied correctly will strengthen and ensure the success of any sound system for finding a winner. A well known racing axiom says that no two races can be run identically and ,therefore, no horse will give identical runs under similar conditions but only within approximations, and it does .
PNR can provide a winner, but it does if applied correctly. Some examples were given in my earlier article posted in 2009. Some more are given below.
Bangalore Oaks-7/1/12. Southern Bay was on money fav but punters were undecided and all other runners were available at6/4 to 4/1. Open the BOL race book and you will find PNR values in the tabulated format. Scrutinize the final time(raw time) and its associated PNR. Best pair (raw time- PNR) is produced by At The Helm and Radical Attraction for 1800m(1m52.2s- 3.3). ATHelm broke down during the race and Radical Attraction placed III payingRS.23/- at Bangalore tote.
Another example – Mysore is called graveyard of favs. On 28/12/11,one treble, minijackpot and jackpot were carried over –only one favorite out of 8 races won. The highest tote dividend of Rs.806/- was paid on Unique Star, race no 5 of the card. Download the past performance chart of the race from their site or look into the BOL book of that day. Winner- Unique Star did 1200m in 1m12.3s(PNR(2.9),1m 14.18s(3.5), second placed Miss Ruby did in 1m13.35(3.2),third placed Daring Dynamite did in 1m12.8(3.2) and the loser the favorite- Solmaz best performance was 1m13.5(2.7). Decide using these raw figures ,which runner a punter must choose to make a bet? There are no complex calculations to perform – only patience, clear and unbiased logic is required to win using any method, system or parameter. It will take several hours to compare patiently this card which could make a punter rich by few lakh rupees!
PNR value is normally taken 2 hrs. before the first race and any subsequent rain, wind speed, weather change will not be reflected in the results misleading the handicappers, many times.
Lovely Kiss won race no 5 on opening day of Bangalore summer 2011 when PNR was 5.1 and going was soft to heavy, clocked better timing than a class I horse, next day , when PNR was 4.6.She was trained by an average trainer and did not have any hype attached to its performance. She was entered as a final entry and won at an odds of 7/2, Fillies stakes -race no 81, easily beating the favorite. She went downhill after that because of physical ailments , which were not disclosed by the connections to racing punters.
Alma Mater started her racing career from Pune season . She ran her first race in soft going (PNR 2.0) on monsoon track which is 1.5 to 2.5 second slower than the main track, depending on the distance. The track was officially declared soft and though winning a race on a soft track in first outing is nothing great but she clocked better timing than a class I horse in her first run is certainly commendable! After winning her second race again on monsoon track (PNR 1.9) in a time which was 0.4second slower than ’Track record’ should be taken note. Running first race of career in bad going and bettering the time of a class I runner is a clear cut clue of the superiority of a runner. She ran as an outsider(15/1) in Indian 1000Guineas and duly won the race defeating many well performed runners. Except one out of 30+ tipsters none gave her a chance!
Hyderabad race no 150 run on 2January 12. As usual most of the experts were hooked on Imran/Chauhan combination to find a winner- while the winner was Odalis. Look at the PNR values of the previous runs of these runners:
Royal Craft-won race 68- 1100m-1m8.2s-PNR 3.4
Odalis-won race 1- 1000m- 1m 0.3s – PNR 3
………race79(III-12length)-1m11.7s-PNR2.9
Rustic Gal-race44(III)-1000m-1m0.7s-PNR 2.4
………..won 85 – 1100m-1m7.8s…..-PNR3.0
Odalis has performed better than her nearest rivals ,if we consider 1000m and 1100m runs and has a good chance to win – which she did.
Penetrometer reading, if analysed carefully and correlated to other parameters does help, most of the time ,to win a race. A clear understanding and relationship with other factors will regularly provide winners at better price.
PNR reading/value is not a system/methodology/parameter to provide a ready made winner but is a indicator ,when applied correctly will strengthen and ensure the success of any sound system for finding a winner. A well known racing axiom says that no two races can be run identically and ,therefore, no horse will give identical runs under similar conditions but only within approximations, and it does .
PNR can provide a winner, but it does if applied correctly. Some examples were given in my earlier article posted in 2009. Some more are given below.
Bangalore Oaks-7/1/12. Southern Bay was on money fav but punters were undecided and all other runners were available at6/4 to 4/1. Open the BOL race book and you will find PNR values in the tabulated format. Scrutinize the final time(raw time) and its associated PNR. Best pair (raw time- PNR) is produced by At The Helm and Radical Attraction for 1800m(1m52.2s- 3.3). ATHelm broke down during the race and Radical Attraction placed III payingRS.23/- at Bangalore tote.
Another example – Mysore is called graveyard of favs. On 28/12/11,one treble, minijackpot and jackpot were carried over –only one favorite out of 8 races won. The highest tote dividend of Rs.806/- was paid on Unique Star, race no 5 of the card. Download the past performance chart of the race from their site or look into the BOL book of that day. Winner- Unique Star did 1200m in 1m12.3s(PNR(2.9),1m 14.18s(3.5), second placed Miss Ruby did in 1m13.35(3.2),third placed Daring Dynamite did in 1m12.8(3.2) and the loser the favorite- Solmaz best performance was 1m13.5(2.7). Decide using these raw figures ,which runner a punter must choose to make a bet? There are no complex calculations to perform – only patience, clear and unbiased logic is required to win using any method, system or parameter. It will take several hours to compare patiently this card which could make a punter rich by few lakh rupees!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)