Penetrometer reading- some opinions,observations

Penetrometer Reading(PNR) is a parameter which ,many times, helps a punter to select a runner who has been missed by many professional tipsters-maybe due to lack of time or understanding of this parameter. Examples abound, but I’ll give only few to highlight this observation, which will help in catching a well priced winner.
PNR value is normally taken 2 hrs. before the first race and any subsequent rain, wind speed, weather change will not be reflected in the results misleading the handicappers, many times.

Lovely Kiss won race no 5 on opening day of Bangalore summer 2011 when PNR was 5.1 and going was soft to heavy, clocked better timing than a class I horse, next day , when PNR was 4.6.She was trained by an average trainer and did not have any hype attached to its performance. She was entered as a final entry and won at an odds of 7/2, Fillies stakes -race no 81, easily beating the favorite. She went downhill after that because of physical ailments , which were not disclosed by the connections to racing punters.

Alma Mater started her racing career from Pune season . She ran her first race in soft going (PNR 2.0) on monsoon track which is 1.5 to 2.5 second slower than the main track, depending on the distance. The track was officially declared soft and though winning a race on a soft track in first outing is nothing great but she clocked better timing than a class I horse in her first run is certainly commendable! After winning her second race again on monsoon track (PNR 1.9) in a time which was 0.4second slower than ’Track record’ should be taken note. Running first race of career in bad going and bettering the time of a class I runner is a clear cut clue of the superiority of a runner. She ran as an outsider(15/1) in Indian 1000Guineas and duly won the race defeating many well performed runners. Except one out of 30+ tipsters none gave her a chance!

Hyderabad race no 150 run on 2January 12. As usual most of the experts were hooked on Imran/Chauhan combination to find a winner- while the winner was Odalis. Look at the PNR values of the previous runs of these runners:
Royal Craft-won race 68- 1100m-1m8.2s-PNR 3.4
Odalis-won race 1- 1000m- 1m 0.3s – PNR 3
Rustic Gal-race44(III)-1000m-1m0.7s-PNR 2.4
………..won 85 – 1100m-1m7.8s…..-PNR3.0
Odalis has performed better than her nearest rivals ,if we consider 1000m and 1100m runs and has a good chance to win – which she did.

Penetrometer reading, if analysed carefully and correlated to other parameters does help, most of the time ,to win a race. A clear understanding and relationship with other factors will regularly provide winners at better price.

PNR reading/value is not a system/methodology/parameter to provide a ready made winner but is a indicator ,when applied correctly will strengthen and ensure the success of any sound system for finding a winner. A well known racing axiom says that no two races can be run identically and ,therefore, no horse will give identical runs under similar conditions but only within approximations, and it does .

PNR can provide a winner, but it does if applied correctly. Some examples were given in my earlier article posted in 2009. Some more are given below.

Bangalore Oaks-7/1/12. Southern Bay was on money fav but punters were undecided and all other runners were available at6/4 to 4/1. Open the BOL race book and you will find PNR values in the tabulated format. Scrutinize the final time(raw time) and its associated PNR. Best pair (raw time- PNR) is produced by At The Helm and Radical Attraction for 1800m(1m52.2s- 3.3). ATHelm broke down during the race and Radical Attraction placed III payingRS.23/- at Bangalore tote.
Another example – Mysore is called graveyard of favs. On 28/12/11,one treble, minijackpot and jackpot were carried over –only one favorite out of 8 races won. The highest tote dividend of Rs.806/- was paid on Unique Star, race no 5 of the card. Download the past performance chart of the race from their site or look into the BOL book of that day. Winner- Unique Star did 1200m in 1m12.3s(PNR(2.9),1m 14.18s(3.5), second placed Miss Ruby did in 1m13.35(3.2),third placed Daring Dynamite did in 1m12.8(3.2) and the loser the favorite- Solmaz best performance was 1m13.5(2.7). Decide using these raw figures ,which runner a punter must choose to make a bet? There are no complex calculations to perform – only patience, clear and unbiased logic is required to win using any method, system or parameter. It will take several hours to compare patiently this card which could make a punter rich by few lakh rupees!

No comments: