sequel to let us play a game

Sequel to let us play the game

My aim to start this exercise ( experiment) is to test my system’s success/failure for all types of punters. Some punters play only one or sometimes 2 races in a day, some play 2 to 4 races and few try their luck with all the races of the day. To satisfy all these different types of punters I’ve designed this exercise.

My data is not stored on computer and my typing speed is slow(7/8WPM) and I workout my ratings manually incorporating various factors – speed, form, breeding, track variant penetrometre reading etc. All this takes 6 to 8 hours on a normal race day . Sometimes, e.g., Derby race or an important or complicated race I may have to spend 2 to 3 hours on one race itself! The methodology does not allow me more than ½ hour to decide the final selections – 3 for each race, 24 for 8 races and 1 selection for 1st. category of punter and 2 or more for 2nd. category.

The selections will , therefore, be posted on the blog - not in the morning, but at any time BEFORE the 1st race of the day and IF DELAYED then selections of the races ALREADY RUN will be DELETED from the list before the posting. Race to race posting will not be done because I would like to be present on the race course to bet my ‘tenner’ on my selections!

Let me repeat the rules of the game once more.

1) betting unit – Rs. 1000/- Capital Rs. 20,000/- each category.
2) incremental increase ( Rs.1000/- + 50% win of previous race) for Cat I & II only
3) constant unit(Rs.10/- or more) ,without incremental increase, for Cat III
4) ‘Jodi’ race- equal amount on both, Eachway- one unit on win 2 units on place
5) any race with prefix/suffix -OPEN race – unit bet on ALL 3 selections.
6) Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad centers only will be considered.
7) Tax @ 10 % will be considered for every bet
I will judge my success or failure based on these rules on Tuesday of next week .

Let me explain the method I’ll use from the selections given in Cat II for 7,8 and 9 November 2009 for Bangalore and Hyderabad races.

Bangalore : 7 November 2009
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Name Investment Return Profit/(Loss) Capital Increase
Rashida-W 1000 1800 800 400
R’ford-EW 3000 0 (3000) 0
C’vating-W 1000 1650 650 350
GMagic-W 1300 3250 1950 950
S’Lady-EW 3000 3000 1000 3000
Tax (930)
Net Profit/Loss= Retun-Investment =9700-8930 = +Rs.770/-

Hyderabad : 8 November 2009

SScot-W 1000 1500 500 300
IM’tain-W 1200 0 (1200) 0
Cefiro-P 1000 1800 800 400
VSena-EW 3000 0 (3000) 0
Tax (620) 0
Net Profit/(loss) = 3300 -6820 = - Rs.3520/-
Hyderabad : 9 November 2009

Manduro-P 1000 4000 3000 1500
P’ti/T’H-W1250/1250 3250 750 350
P Doll-W 1400 9800 8400 4200
JG-EW 4200 0 (4200) 0
Tax (910)
Net Profit/(loss) =20410 – 10010 = + Rs. 10410/-
Net Profit/(loss) for the week = Rs.770 – Rs 3520 + Rs. 10410 =Rs. 7650/- Profit

Let us start a game

I have been experimenting with my speed rating system and based on ‘speed rating numbers’ I post my selections. In 2005 and 2007 I used to post my selections on IR.com website and IHRB forum. Though they have been removed from IR.com on forum they are still there along with my analysis . In 2008 , I posted these selections on TurfParrot site in Mar/April and had very successful strike rate.

Many punters, analysts and race goers opine that you can not make profit from races . I do not agree. To prove my point I’ll start posting my choice based on my system in 3 different categories for a particular race day :

1) one choice (win or place or win/place)only,
2) several choices ,
3) full race card selections.

My typing speed is only 7/8 WPM ,therefore, I’ll not give detailed comments .

My betting unit will be Rs. 1000/- for 1st. and 2nd. category and ‘one unit’ – which can be Rs.10/- or Rs. 100/- or Rs. 1000/-(but calculated in unit format only) for the 3rd.category .

My target will be Rs. 50,000/- win or loss for the first two categories and I’ll stop the moment I win or lose that amount for these 2 , but will continue for the 3rd. category till end of the season when I’ll calculate my winning/losing units.

While my betting unit will be CONSTANT for 3rd. category it will INCREASE after a win and will remain SAME (Rs.1000/-) after a loss. If I win , 50% of win will be added to next bet and 50% goes to my ‘profit account’. But - if I lose, I’ll start again with standard betting unit ,which is Rs. 1000/-.

Every 2 or 3 years I modify/change/reconstruct my system and use it to find out its efficacy and performance. I’m still experimenting and WARN readers to observe and NOT TO BET ON MY SELECTIONS WITHOUT MY EXPLICIT APPROVAL. I’m not using a disclaimer and I don’t need that after explaining that this is an experiment!

My postings will not be at a fixed time and will be posted as and when my calculations are complete – but will be BEFORE the RUN of the race of the selection .

Let us start and find out the ‘winning street’!
My selections for 2nd. category are already out and for 1st. and 3rd. category will start from 14th. November.

Hyderabad 9 Nov

today also bad day for punters but not as bad as yesterday...

Sugar Gold -place(odds less than 6)
Manduro- place
Pavarotti-Tillcowscomehome- one of them should win
Rainbow Fog -win, Habituated -fluke
Party Doll- good chance towin,if on job
John Galt- eachway

hyderabad 8 November

today is fluke day

Splendid Scot-win
Ice Mountain-win
Cefiro-place
Vijaysena- eachway