1/08/2010

MUMBAI - 08/01/10

MY SELECTIONS:

1)1-6-4
2)(2-4)-9
3) 4-3-2
4) (7-4)-6
5)8-7-3
6) (8-10)-6
7) (4-2-1)

1/07/2010

Mumbai- 7/1/10

my choice
1)7-6-1
2)2-5-3
3)6
4)7-2-3
5)4-6-3
6) (7-1-4)
7)(1-8-2)

1/06/2010

Native Knight- missed opportunities?

NATIVE KNIGHT – A CLASSIC MATERIAL ?

Sometimes, it becomes very confusing when your thought process goes at variance with general perceptions . Let me be more specific.

3 yr. Olds run and win races and acquire a certain ‘status’ to claim a position in the classic scenario of main winter season. Jacqueline, Aboline, Fleet Indian , Sprint Star, Becket and many others have established themselves as serious contenders for various Derbies ,including Indian Derby. But a gelding called Native Knight(Placervile- Native Tactics) ,who has perhaps run only 3 races in his career but placed in 2 classics (Pune Derby and Indian 2000G) has never been discussed or spoken about by anyone!

Many books have been written about great thoroughbreds – Sea Biscuit, Secretariat, etc. While you may read hundreds of pages about these great thoroughbreds – all males, most of them sires ; you will hardly find a page or two written about some of the great female thoroughbreds – who contribute equal number of chromosomes to an offspring! They do provide stamina and endurance ,better than the sires who finally get all the credit for the performance of a classic winner! Examples abound in other fields also. A young Indian physicist , called SN Bose sends his research paper to Albert Einstein sitting thousands of miles away, for approval and comments and finally the research is published under the name ‘Bose-Einstein statistics’. The Indian scientist is thrilled to have his name ‘coupled ‘ with a world famous scientist. Everyone is happy. Einstein gets an apple in his already full basket and Bose( an Indian) is thrilled that his name is permanently ‘attached’ to Albert Einstein!

Something similar happens in thoroughbred racing.

While in US/UK/Europe/Australia a commercial sire covers more than 100 mares(sometimes 200+ ... how he does that!) in India our popular sires cover 50 to 70 mares in a season . while a mare can produce only one offspring in a year a sire can have more than 50+ and few of them are bound to run well and propagate the sire’s legend or the efficacy of the ‘dominant’ partner. In all walks of life this fallacy is perpetrated by homo-sapiens to achieve their goal.
Coming back to horseracing I must confess that I do give more importance to the dam than the sire because scientific studies have proved that ‘mitochondria’ which provides stamina and endurance to a runner is transmitted by the dam and NOT by the sire of a runner. Therefore , a Squanderer or a Elusive Pimpernal or a Set Alight or a Jacqueline has inherited the ‘staying’ ability from their dam and not from their sire! All breeders will not agree, some will curse me, some may write under assumed names – but the facts cannot be overlooked and brushed aside.

The reader may ask – why am I using such a long ‘prologue’ to the topic. Because ,I don’t want any iota of doubt in the mind of my reader about the points I want to make and the rationale behind my opinions.
Based on these presumptions I must say that I was surprised to note that the subject of this article Native Knight started racing in Pune and was only 1 ½ lengths behind Cabriolet in race no 143 during his FIRST RUN and again in Pune Derby he was only 1 ½ lengths behind hard-ridden Cabriolet! Race no 143 was his first run and Derby was the second run of racing career! Fantastic improvement ! This realization made me look a bit carefully into his pedigree . But that is not the end , because in Indian 2000Guineas he ended 3rd. behind Jacqueline and Sea Ruler .

Native Knight( Placerville- Native Tactics) apparently has no great bloodlines and is one of 70 odd produce of Placerville of 2006 .Though his dam has won 6 races but they were all sprint races and do not strengthen his chances for classic distances. Then how could he finish TWICE 1 ½ lengths behind two hard ridden class I runners ?Native Tactics(Blue Bird-Miss Oriental) is a ‘got abroad’ who came in foal and did her racing in India-trained by DR Byramjee and owned by D Khaitan .Blue Bird – born in USA was a champion sprinter who raced in Ireland and placed in several graded races.Miss Oriental(Habitat-Miss Bangkok) with Roman dosage(29-7-9-1-0) did not race and after producing 2 nondescript progeny in USA, was imported and Native Tactics is her first foal born in India. She was subsequently covered always by Young Senor .Thus apparently , the immediate female line gives the impression that Native Knight may do well in sprint races . But that is not true.A breeding axiom – reinforced and confirmed by genetic studies states that many times the attributes of grand children or great grandchildren resemble more than the next generation ( son/ daughter) .Storm Bird(Roman Dosage, 11-7-16-0-0) -sire of Blue Bird was also sire of Storm Cat (covering fee $ 500,000), was a champion sprinter and Habitat(dosage 13-14-13-4-2) – sire of Miss Oriental was a champion miler but Ivory Dawn- the dam of Blue Bird who never raced had a dosage(4-21-17-2-0) .Ivory Dawn( Sir Ivor-Dusky Evening) has a very impressive parentage . Sir Ivor(Sir Gaylord-Attica) was the winner of many classics including Epsom Derby and his ‘turn of foot’ was amazing. In Epsom Derby ,ridden by Lester Piggot ,he ran off the pace holding his horse till 200m and found himself 4 lengths behind connaught –ridden by young Sandy Barclay .He loosened the reigns , gave a tap to Sir Ivor and he won easing up by one length.The trainer of Sir Ivor – Vincent O’Brien had placed a bet of 500 pounds each way for Epsom Derby win , with a bookie BEFORE Sir Ivor started his racing career as a 3 year old – almost more than a year before , he ran his FIRST RACE!He is also very well ‘sex balanced’ with Sir Gaylord who is sire of both –Sir Ivor from the sire side and Habitat from the dam side ( I hope puritans will forgive me for making these silly statements – because I’m writing for a common punter) . Sir Gaylord a English horse went to USA and after beating them on their home ground in some races he became the favorite for Kentucky Derby but due to a hairline fracture few days before the race his Triple Crown dream was shattered . He was retired to stud .The question now is ? Did Native Knight receive some of the traits from these versatile and superior thoroughbreds?The answer is : he did. His two runs in the company of the best western India runners confirm this.But, what is in store for him in western India ? a place in Indian Derby- at the most . But he can add a classic to his name – a regional classic, not an Indian classic. Abs Fab has done that last year , Aboline is trying to do that this year.

Native Knight may be able to do that – somewhere, but away from Mumbai .Of course he can win the same ‘amount’ of money by placing in Indian Derby.

1/05/2010

self appraisal - III

Self – appraisal-III

I was very busy during last 4 days and could not post my selections for Saturday and Sunday. Therefore , I’ll consider the selections given on Thursday 31st. December (Mumbai) and Friday 1st. January (Bangalore) only.

Mumbai – 31st December 09
I ( -1), II (+1.2-1), III(+1.2-2), IV(+0.35), V(-1), VI((+0.6), VII(+1.75-1), tax(-1.1)

Net win/(loss) = -1.0

Bangalore – 1st. January 10
I(0), II( +1.4), III(-1), IV(+1.2), V(+1.2-1), VI((+0.55), VII(+2.5-1), VIII(-1), tax(-0.9)

Net win/(loss) = + 1.95

Win/loss for the week = +0.95

Net win/(loss) position on 5th. January 10 is

-4.50 + 0.95 = - 3.55
we did recover a bit – though not a sufficient amount.

I must remind the reader that betting unit SHALL remain SAME (Rs.10, Rs 100, or Rs 1,00,000) throughout – from beginning till end.