Indian Derby - afterthoughts

Jacqueline – the Queen filly.

Jacqueline has won Indian Derby, beating convincingly, Becket, Native Knight and Onassis in a new course record time. The jinx associated with Morvi cup and Indian Derby favorite, by some regular, opportunist ignorant ‘experts’, has been consigned to the ‘dustbin of time’ – to reappear next year to amuse few of us.

I’ve been writing in detail on few selected runners of some races – mostly classics, since last few years using mostly pedigree angle, past performance and current form and had been reasonably correct ( not always), because I do not try to get ‘inside info’ or run after owner, trainer or jockey and form my opinion based on data available in public domain. Velvet Rope( Indian Derby), Abs Fab(Mysore Derby)- fluke winners , Southern Empire & Set Alight(Bangalore summer Derby) favorites winners and Set Alight(loser) Jacqueline (winner) of Indian Derby are some of the example of this methodology.

I could not attend the Derby and after watching the video recorded running of the Derby and reading most of the comments I came to the following conclusions. These are my personal observations/opinions and though do reflect my ‘subjective’ assessment but do not consider the opinions of ‘opinion makers’.

I’m told the odds of Jacqueline went up from 8/10 to 12/10 and of Becket came down from 15/4 to 13/4 or less indicating the perception, aspiration and the ‘hope’ of a punter – most of them ‘seasonal’ – 60 to 80% of them are first timer or ‘irregular’ and any change in the betting trend will force them to switch over to falling odds – those who lure gamblers know this basic human psychology trait! Seasoned and battle-hardened punter may not waiver but a casual, ignorant or un-initiated punter will immediately change sides. But this subterfuge did enable the followers of Jacqueline to make some extra money!

Coming back to the race, which was run in a ‘copybook’ style , there is nothing to comment upon the first half of the race - when Native Knight(+2L) –‘led’ followed by Becket who was 1 ½ length ahead of Jacqueline till 800m . From 800m all 3 became serious – Native Knight enjoyed or rued his rails position, Becket in midfield and mid bunch had lovely opening and Jacqueline from rails to out to mid-bunch were within 4 lengths of each other at 600m, positioning themselves for the ‘finale’.

Becket , 4 to5 horse-wide but only 3 lengths behind Classerville (leader) got the ‘first run’ opportunity at 600m with the unobstructed vast expanse of Mahalaxmi straight ahead of him, while Native Knight and Jacqueline were contemplating their next move. The camera at bend at Mahalaxmi are placed so stupidly(or intentionally?) that though there is no interruption in the race ,the human vision takes few seconds to new ‘display’ at bend. Therefore, while Becket , on tight reign at bend, rider sitting like a motionless robot from 700m to 450m –covering ground, leaving the front runners behind and establishing a commanding lead of 3 to 4 lengths at 400m ,without flexing a muscle, my heart would have also stopped beating –like Shirke said after the race. The movement of Becket between 650m to 400m is a ‘poetry in motion’. Jacqueline moved fast between 1000m to 600m from rear bunch( -8 to 10 lengths) to mid bunch ( – 4 lengths) and extricating herself from the crowd found herself almost 4 to 5 lengths behind Becket at 350m. Now ridden hard, but not desperately she covered the gap and leveling at 50m went ahead and was apparently eased a bit in last few strides.

What do we learn from this run of Jacqueline and Becket?

1) Becket would have given a better account of himself if allowed to give his all after 400/450m.
2) Becket or Jacqueline were not very hard ridden and have 5 to 10% chance to improve on this performance.
3) Invitation cup will be confined to these 2 runners only-unless ‘doosra’ pops up
4) Becket has a slightly more chance to show improvement than Jacqueline
5) Jacqueline has not reached her peak performance
6) Invitation cup will be more interesting than the Indian Derby
7) Jacqueline can win Indian ST. Leger


Invitation cup race will be an interesting race – reminiscent of Royal Tern /wild Blossom or Affirmed/Aldyar rivalry , with the exception that in the former 2 cases the winner was far better but in the present case though Jacqueline has an edge over Becket but it is not very pronounced.

Of course in Indian scenario if Diabolical can beat Southern Empire and Antonios can humble Set Alight – even a Native Knight can win Indian Invitation cup! Truth is bitter , sometimes,but truth is truth…Like an ostrich it can’t be denied by burying your head in the sand…