Bangalore summer Derby - an overview

Bangalore Derby contenders : a short Review

Bangalore summer Derby 2009 is an open race unlike earlier years when Set Alight, Southern Empire were undisputed choice to win this race .In my opinion the winner must emerge from the following list (in alphabetical order):
Aboline,
Astral Flash,
Fair Option,
Gypsy Magic,
Jacqueline,
Polish Patriot,
Spearhead,
Sprint Star,
Star of Marmalade.
A long list, true but this indicates the openness of the race. I’ll take up each runner in the alphabetical order and then give my order of preference.

Before I start I must give a short brief of the methodology used by me to enable a first timer to understand the technical jargons used . Thoroughbreds are categorized as sprinters(upto 1400m) , milers(1400m to 1800m) and routers or stayers(winners over 2000m). Dr Roman in his system has divided sires(only) –ignoring the female thoroughbred’s direct contribution, in 5 categories based on his and his progeny’s performance called aptitude . These are named as Brilliant(sprinter), Intermediate (sprinter+), Classic( miler), Solid(normally1800-2200m) and Professional(> 2000m).Polish Patriot’s Roman numbers are 3-5-21-1-2 indicating that he has received 3 Brilliant ,5 Intermediate, 21 Classic, 1 Solid and 2 Professional pts. from his ancestors (upto 4 generation only). Conduit mare classification also follow same methodology but only for female thoroughbreds.
More numbers in an aptitude better may be the performance of a TB in that category.

To start with I’ll give a brief account of pedigree followed by an analysis of the past performance.

Aboline(Burden of Proof-Super Fan) has Roman dosage points(RDP) (3-0-11-0-0) indicating apparent lack of stamina, reinforcing my belief that RDP is a pointer and not a decider for the ‘ability’ of a thoroughbred(TB) because Burden of Proof has produced Derby winners – Fantabulous King(Bangalore Derby) and Full Speed (Mysore Derby). His average winning distance(AWD) of 1392m is comparable to Glory of Dancer – sire of Antonios, winner of Indian Derby. Dam of Antonios is Twin Star ,winner of Indian Oaks (2400m ) and she provides the stamina quotient to him. Based on the same analogy we find that Super Fan – dam of Aboline has won 14 races (1200m to 1900m) and has run 43 races showing durability, hardiness ,a rarity for a US thoroughbred. Though Aboline is a ‘late’ foal born when she was 19 yr old ‘matron’ has received stamina genes from his maternal grand dam Sweet Delilah((3-3-4-0-4) and should not problem upto 2000m –Derby distance. His position on the board will depend on the tactics employed by the connections.

Astral Flash (Belong to Me-Burooq) with RDP(7-9-20-0-0) has beaten Captivating – highest rated filly
Convincingly at Mumbai and her style of running indicates that she has received her turn of foot from her sire Belong to Me(winner of 7 races ,most of them 1200m) and though her dam , Burooq with RDP(10-11-19-2-0) - has never sat foot on a racetrack her grand dam Nasaayem(10-3-9-4-0) did win a race and her great grand dam Safaanh(5-5-12-10) has produced several stakes winner. But Astral Flash does not inspire the confidence to win this Derby.

Classerville (Placerville-Pleasure Hunt) with RDP ((11-3-13-1-2) is some of the few contestants who have the blood to win classic( 2000m+) races. Though a son of Indian Oaks winner who has placed 2nd. in Invitation Cup he (51 1/2kg) gets beaten by Aboline (56 1/2kg) stand no chance to win this race unless he shows remarkable improvement in his form . QED.

Fair Option(Inner City- Factual) with roman points(1-4-13-0-0) is a ‘dark horse’ who carrying 61kgs. Ended 2 lengths behind Polish Patriot(56kgs) while stalking him 2 to 2 ½ length behind from 300m to 50m. His final position vis-à-vis PP will be worth noticing. He may not win the Derby but if stalks Polish Patriot , he should not be far behind. Ridden hard may be very close to him for his discomfort.

Gypsy Magic(Placerville- Stunning) with dosage of (9-5-13-0-1) is a celebrated full sister of three classic winners , namely, Smart Chieftain, Classical Act and Southern Empire and though none of the daughters of Stunning have performed above ‘par’, Gypsy Magic may prove every theoretician wrong by performing as well as male progeny of Stunning . She did run ‘funnily’ in Poonawalla multimillion and fillies trial , but the blame must go squarely to her rider-partiallty to the trainer for not training her well or properly to ‘behave’, than to her wayward performance. She is one of the best 3 yr old , and whether she wins or loses this Derby contest – she is bound to create more interest in her – because she is the last of the ‘bests’ of Stunning. We will not see any more of them!

Jacqueline(King Charlemagne-Talita Kumi) is an import from Europe like Astral Flash and Polish Patriot. Here I want to use an analogy. If we equate the racing in Mumbai with the quality of product (TBs) with US, racing at Bangalore with TBs at England and France , the products of Germany and Italy will match with Hyderabad.. No disrespect to anyone but an assessment which is personal and therefore may be affected by prejudice and bias . Of course a Fedrico Tesio may create a history but how many Tesios we can find in TB industry. Perhaps none. Not now. Commercial compulsions has forced Tesios to follow the dotted line. Leaving aside the diversion, let us look at Jacqueline(4-0-17-1-2) . a fairly impressive ,balanced pedigree which can partake with mid –distance races and classic distances too! Coming back to pedigree I find following . King Charlemagne (7-1-30-0-0) a proven sprinter sire and conforming to the current breeding practices covered Talita Kumi(5-1-9-2-4) a confirmed stayer (won 200m and 2200m races) and the result was a foal called Jacqueline(4-0-17-1-2) which withourt much effort indicated a TB well suited to a mile and above. She won a 1200m race coming from 10th. position and ended 3rd. in next race (1400m) from 12th position . It is immaterial that a win in this second run of her career would have made her richer by more than half a million rupees! In the third run of her career she won Rs.39,00,000 prize money and is trying to win a classic in the 4th. attempt. Of course some have Derby in their second or third attempt. The sire line - does not provide any comfort, confidence or encouragement for her ability but the dam line does. While King Charlemagne is a pure sprinter his dam is a runner up in two Oaks( Hollywood and Del Mar Oaks) runs in USA . Talita Kumi has also won 2 races at 2000m and 2200m and her dam Temple Music did win 4 races in her career. Correlating various factors it seems that Jacqueline is a potential and serious contender for this Derby.

Polish Patriot(PP) (Polish Precedent- Be Mine)has Roman dosage point(3-5-21-1-2) and a DI 1.37 and CD of 0.19 indicating the concentration of his ‘ability’ in the ‘central region’(my conjecture-not Roman’s) of the racing distances. I do not subscribe to Roman’s theory in totality as it excludes the contribution of the female line which provides, at least 50% of the ‘ability’ if not more to the progeny. Using cyber cop’s information his conduit mare profile is 6-9-2-6-4 and Triads of 17-17-12 confirms the presumption that a smart trainer can convert him into a runner who can win up to 2000m which should be his optimum distance because the inheritance does not reinforce the promise that he will be comfortable beyond that distance at this time. The GSV score of 68+ is good, if not very good, from the point of view of Indian standards because the profile of most of the imported mares does not suggest a GSV score of 70+ common for American thoroughbreds(TBs).
Having a closer look at the ancestors we find Polish Precedent((6-14-26-0-0) – a US born colt did most of running in France and England and has won races at Ascot ,Chantilly and Longchamp –some of the prestigious racecourses, but most of the wins were confined to 1400m and 1600m. Of course he was perhaps never tried for a 2000m race - but he is a proven miler ,no doubt. The grandsire of PP is celebrated Danzig (15-11-14-0-0) who ran 3 times won all the 3 races and retired to stud due to injury.
Apparently the male line provides only speed to PP and therefore, the stamina must come from female source and that is amply proved by BE Mine(family-3). Be Mine(3-3-24-2-4) is a beautiful example of ‘balanced’ Roman numbers. Her DI is 1.0(ideal) and CD(-0.03-good) and the presence of Solid (2pts) and Professional(4) which are necessary for a stayer will be transmitted by her to the progeny. BE Mine’s sire Wolfhound (8-6-40-0-0) is again a speed influence- being a European champ for 1000m-1400m and this speed is augmented by Upper Strata(8-3-12-7-8)- dam of Be Mine and grand dam of Polish Patriot.
Therefore , while the speed comes by the sire line of PP, the stamina is provided by the dam line and that is the correct channel because mitochondria –essential for the sustenance of endurance of a thoroughbred comes only from the dam and not from the sire.
PP started his racing career a bit late, being April born and won creditably his first race- a 1400m in a fairly good time of 1m 28.6s when the penetrometer reading was 4.6cm. In his next outing with a step up distance of 1800m he again won it comfortably in 1m 52.6s(PR – 3.5cm).
Can he win Derby on 12th. July? Perhaps, yes. Because he can stay the distance and is a live contender with Gypsy Magic, Jacqueline and Sprint Star.

Spearhead(Burden of Proof- Imposing) with adoage(5-4-10-0-1) had an imposing record before entering Colts Trial contest on 21st. June. Running 3rd. to Captivating(best 3yo till then in race no 179, beating classic hopeful –Star of Marmalade in next(race no 210) and winning Juvenile colts in a smashing time of 1m 35.7s (actual time 1m 37.9s) at Mumbai created an aura around him. Like his full brother – Fantabulous King who became a hero after winning Bangalore summer Derby and then went down to zero , Spearhead seems to be heading on the same path. Perhaps.
Sprint Star( Ontario- Royal Retreat)-(3-1-6-4-0) is a funny name for a thoroughbred whose pedigree says that he is an outright stayer and not a sprinter! Maybe, like Abs Fab they tried to run him in sprints and experimented to run him in Colts Trial and after the result gladly paid Rs. 10,00,000/- to enter him in the Derby. Hats off to the courage , the ambition, the risk and the optimism of the connections . This is what the horseracing is in all its glory and uncertainties. I appreciate the courage and the risk involved and wish them success. Sprint Star is the son of Ontario(4-4-6-8-2) a hybrid of speed ,precociousness (Storm Cat, Storm Bird) and endurance, stubbornness, durability(Bustino , Jim French). A strange genetic mix of speed (from Cat and Bird) and stamina and endurance (from Bustino and Jim French) has bestowed an acceleration and the ability to sustain it- provided it is exploited correctly, successfully and improved gradually. IN the absence of Leonardo who also has the blood of Bustino he is a live threat to the best and all other competitors

Star of Marmalade(Placerville-Mystic Memory) with a dosage (8-3-8-0-1) will also compete in this race . The dam of Mystical needs no introduction. but forces one to think that – was Mystical a freak? No other produce of Mystic Memory could enhance her reputation and Star of Marmalade with all the facilities and opportunities has failed to live up to his illustrious pedigree .Let us hope to see him in better light in his winter campaign.

taxes,raid ,bookmaker and punter

A ‘news’ or an article about a raid by RWITC security on ‘unofficial’ or ‘illegal’ bookmakers, on a blog forced me to write this response which the blogger did not publish. Of course that was his blog and his right to refuse/accept a response is unquestionable.
Why people don’t pay tax? How black money was generated in India?
A short recall from the budget speech on 29 Februay 1956 by Mr CD Deshmukh our finance minister-on that day may throw some light. He said : I propose that rate of tax on the highest slab of income ,that is,above Rs 1,50,000(per annum), will be 91.9% against the present figure of 88.6%...
What an honest ,hardworking Indian should do in this kind of ‘socialistic’ progressive society and country? I don’t know?
Few decades ago in 80's punters use to bet with zero tax with bookmakers at RWITC. In early 90's they started paying 10% tax(?). Many of my friends who were owners were doing it openly with the legal bookmakers and though all of them are now punters ,it is a brazen fact that ALL punters who bet more than Rs.2000 or 3000 with legal bookmakers do it even now openly under the very nose of these 'super intelligent' competent and 'sincere' security staff of RWITC!
If anybody wants a proof and RWITC's security staff is serious and Mr. Vivek Jain is really interested then they must go to the bookies ring at Mumbai,ON ANY RACING DAY and move around - they (all three) can find at least 10, if not more illegal bookies doing business. Loiter around the racecourse they may be lucky to find many more. Going on at Borivali is/was an open secret for more than last 2 years.Secrecy of operation has no meaning.
Finally, I must say ,a man is a slave of habits.Many years ago when BTC could convince Karnataka government to reduce taxes and increased their turnover from 100+ crore to 1000+ crore in about 10 or 12 years , why our high profile gentlemen who get selected/elected year after year(literally ad infinitum) could not convince Maharashtra govt. to do the same to eradicate the scourage of illegal betting defies logic and baffles a sensible man(nay person).Maybe,they don't have to pay any tax at all, on their betting !The comments and opinions are plain, bit sarcastic but true. May not go well with few- but I never write for them. Perhaps, I do it for a common, faceless, voiceless person called a punter...