9/25/2009
some classic aspirants - a short commentary
Some 3 year olds and their chances to win classics…
This year‘s crop of 3y olds has a fair mix of ‘foreign-conceived’ and India bred well performed runners and unlike last few years there is no clear outstanding 3yo in the list of future competitors except Jacqueline who is certainly the best performed than all others. Whether she will be able to retain her position during winter classics, only time will tell. He (the time) is certainly a great leveller – though homo-sapiens unknowingly do help him .
Some of the 3 year old who are likely to perform well in coming months are listed below( in random order) :
Jacqueline , Versaki, Aboline, Gypsy Magic,confiserie, Sea Ruler, Sprint Star ,Red Renegade, Red Dragon, Messalina, Cabriolet, Mystic Quest, Classerville, Fleet Indian, Al Fatah, Spot On and few more , I’ve not been able to recollect.at this moment.
Jacqueline, Aboline, Gypsy Magic, Sprint Star, Classerville have been discussed on this blog on 9 Jul 09 and will be reviewed only if they accept to run in future classics run in October or winter.
I’ll post a summarized view on rest of the runners.
In my opinion, 3 most important variables (parameters) to win a classic race are : a)past performance , b) current form c) pedigree . To reach a conclusion I need detais of all the 3 variables . Performance and pedigree details are available but the ‘current form ‘can be assessed only few days before the run . Therefore, the opinion expressed below must be correlated with the current track of the runner before arriving at a decision.
Versaki :
Versaki(Verglas- Ghassak) is sired by a sprinter (Versaki) out of a stayer(Ghassak) – an universally accepted formula and he has won all his races tilldate including the last race of 1800m.
Verglas is a reasonably good sire and his main attribute – speed complements the staying ability of Ghassak who is sired by Persian Bold whose ability to tranmit his traits are proven by his progeny. Highest Honour – sire of Verglas is a miler, a middle distance specialist.(winner of 1600 and 1800m –grade I race) .
Ghassak(Persian Bold-Anjuli) has Roman Dodage(6-2-2-4-0) indicating clearly that she is more comfortable at route races and did win a 2200m race and produced winners over 2000m and 2400m .Breeding is not an exact science but analogy and produce history reinforces the belief that Versaki can easily stay 2000m. Ghassak – dam of Versaki, an ‘old matron’ came to India at the ripe old age of 14 yrs and Versaki is her 8th foal – born in India. Her(Ghassak's) damsire , Northfields is a winner of 2 US regional Derbies which should add few points to Versaki. He should be a live contender for races upto 2000m. If his current form , at the time of run, matches the competitors he should win therace.
Confiserie :
I was impressed by Confiserie(Placerville- Sprungli) win on 20/9/09 at Pune. Clocking 1m 51.1s
For 1800m , which is 1.5 second better than Yana’s on the same day!
She had nondescript runs earlier- following the footsteps of her dam ,but this daughter of Sprungli can definitely match strides with other 3y olds and should beat them if tried seriously. Placerville is a wellknown sire - sire of innumerable classic winners but Sprungli has run and won several races in classI including few graded races reaching a handicap rating of 122 which brackets her in top 10% of her contemporaries!.She placed 3rd. in Indian Derby and her maternal grandsire – Treasure Leaf was a potent source of stamina . Her Derby run was a classic example of how races are run and won in India. Psychic Flame (odds-9/2 ?)- the eventual winner (a Calcutta Derby winner) was 6/7th at bend and Sprungli (10?1) ridden by PS Chauhan ( he has ridden her in most of the races) was 11/12th at the bend . On entering straight Chauhan let her go and she covered ground beating all but two - the winner and the runnerup and ended only 1 length behind the Derby winner !
She also had the bad(?) habit of trying to win only when the odds were decent - 5/1 or 6/1 or more ! Her pet distance was 1800/2000m but she could have won if tried seriously over 2400m. Anyway, ignoring the imponderables , one fact comes out clearly and that is - she was a stayer and could have done better.
I'm not going to write a thesis and will stop here to point out that Confiserie is the FIRST foal of Sprungli and her performance will decide whether SPRUNGLI will be a multimillion rupees dam or an ordinary mare . Many breeders believe that only first few produce of a mare perform well and that is the reason 90% of imported mares in India are 9 or 10 year old! Finally I must say that after Jacqueline and Versaki I rate Confiserie as the third best western India challenger and if prepared suitably and earnestly she will be a live threat to these ‘imported’ Indians!
(to be continued…)
This year‘s crop of 3y olds has a fair mix of ‘foreign-conceived’ and India bred well performed runners and unlike last few years there is no clear outstanding 3yo in the list of future competitors except Jacqueline who is certainly the best performed than all others. Whether she will be able to retain her position during winter classics, only time will tell. He (the time) is certainly a great leveller – though homo-sapiens unknowingly do help him .
Some of the 3 year old who are likely to perform well in coming months are listed below( in random order) :
Jacqueline , Versaki, Aboline, Gypsy Magic,confiserie, Sea Ruler, Sprint Star ,Red Renegade, Red Dragon, Messalina, Cabriolet, Mystic Quest, Classerville, Fleet Indian, Al Fatah, Spot On and few more , I’ve not been able to recollect.at this moment.
Jacqueline, Aboline, Gypsy Magic, Sprint Star, Classerville have been discussed on this blog on 9 Jul 09 and will be reviewed only if they accept to run in future classics run in October or winter.
I’ll post a summarized view on rest of the runners.
In my opinion, 3 most important variables (parameters) to win a classic race are : a)past performance , b) current form c) pedigree . To reach a conclusion I need detais of all the 3 variables . Performance and pedigree details are available but the ‘current form ‘can be assessed only few days before the run . Therefore, the opinion expressed below must be correlated with the current track of the runner before arriving at a decision.
Versaki :
Versaki(Verglas- Ghassak) is sired by a sprinter (Versaki) out of a stayer(Ghassak) – an universally accepted formula and he has won all his races tilldate including the last race of 1800m.
Verglas is a reasonably good sire and his main attribute – speed complements the staying ability of Ghassak who is sired by Persian Bold whose ability to tranmit his traits are proven by his progeny. Highest Honour – sire of Verglas is a miler, a middle distance specialist.(winner of 1600 and 1800m –grade I race) .
Ghassak(Persian Bold-Anjuli) has Roman Dodage(6-2-2-4-0) indicating clearly that she is more comfortable at route races and did win a 2200m race and produced winners over 2000m and 2400m .Breeding is not an exact science but analogy and produce history reinforces the belief that Versaki can easily stay 2000m. Ghassak – dam of Versaki, an ‘old matron’ came to India at the ripe old age of 14 yrs and Versaki is her 8th foal – born in India. Her(Ghassak's) damsire , Northfields is a winner of 2 US regional Derbies which should add few points to Versaki. He should be a live contender for races upto 2000m. If his current form , at the time of run, matches the competitors he should win therace.
Confiserie :
I was impressed by Confiserie(Placerville- Sprungli) win on 20/9/09 at Pune. Clocking 1m 51.1s
For 1800m , which is 1.5 second better than Yana’s on the same day!
She had nondescript runs earlier- following the footsteps of her dam ,but this daughter of Sprungli can definitely match strides with other 3y olds and should beat them if tried seriously. Placerville is a wellknown sire - sire of innumerable classic winners but Sprungli has run and won several races in classI including few graded races reaching a handicap rating of 122 which brackets her in top 10% of her contemporaries!.She placed 3rd. in Indian Derby and her maternal grandsire – Treasure Leaf was a potent source of stamina . Her Derby run was a classic example of how races are run and won in India. Psychic Flame (odds-9/2 ?)- the eventual winner (a Calcutta Derby winner) was 6/7th at bend and Sprungli (10?1) ridden by PS Chauhan ( he has ridden her in most of the races) was 11/12th at the bend . On entering straight Chauhan let her go and she covered ground beating all but two - the winner and the runnerup and ended only 1 length behind the Derby winner !
She also had the bad(?) habit of trying to win only when the odds were decent - 5/1 or 6/1 or more ! Her pet distance was 1800/2000m but she could have won if tried seriously over 2400m. Anyway, ignoring the imponderables , one fact comes out clearly and that is - she was a stayer and could have done better.
I'm not going to write a thesis and will stop here to point out that Confiserie is the FIRST foal of Sprungli and her performance will decide whether SPRUNGLI will be a multimillion rupees dam or an ordinary mare . Many breeders believe that only first few produce of a mare perform well and that is the reason 90% of imported mares in India are 9 or 10 year old! Finally I must say that after Jacqueline and Versaki I rate Confiserie as the third best western India challenger and if prepared suitably and earnestly she will be a live threat to these ‘imported’ Indians!
(to be continued…)
9/24/2009
some stray thoughts about Hyderabad Derby
October month racing of 3 year olds in India is very peculiar . 3 regional Derbies are run in this month –Hyderabad monsoon Derby run always on 2nd. October, Pune and Mysore Derby run in 2nd. or 3rd. week of this month of October . All these races are run at 2000m and participants are 3 year old only. Except USA , where Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes (2400m) are run in May/June every year I do not recollect any other country runs 3 ‘regional’ classics – all 2000m within a short span of one month.
But we do it – in India!
Hyderabad Derby on 2 Oct. , Pune Derby on 11 Oct. and Mysore Derby on 18 Oct. may bring out some unexpected and unpleasant results.
Why?
Because , there is no outstanding runner at any of these racing centers, although Jacqueline and Aboline at Bangalore have categorically established their superiority over others but will they be running in these regional classics is to be seen from the final acceptance.
If they accept to run, then they are the winners! But will they run?
Ignoring them and accepting that they may not run in these regional classics , I must sat that following are my preferred (not selections) ‘runners’ for the regional Derbies…in alphabetical order :
Hyderabad : Al Fatha, Fleet Indian, Messalina, Red Renegade and Spot on
Pune :Cabriolet, Confiserie, Red Dragon , Sea Ruler
Mysore :Classerville, Gypsy Magic, Leonardo,Mystic Quest , Sprint Star.
I don’t know who will accept to run these races and a detailed analysis isa waste of time and therefore, I’ll take only Hyderabad Derby at this stage . for others I’ll express my opinion after acceptance to save my time and effort.
Hyderabad monsoon Derby:
Many runners will take part in this race but most probably the winner will emerge from Al Fatha, Fleet Indian, Messalina, Red Renegade and Spot On , if they decide to run. They are all 3year old and the factors to be considered for winning a race are : 1) performance, 2) class, 3) current form ,4) intention of connections 5) jockey,trainer, equipment change. Except the 4th. Factor all other factors are available in public domain.
Based on these parameters let us see what we can deduce about these contestants.
Al Fatha( Steinbeck-Anguilla) has always won as a fluke and failed as a favorite! His sire is maternal grandsire of Set Alight and his dam has won a race upto 2000m and Anguilla’s damsire EverydayII was a known stayer . In race no 116 after loitering in rear he picked up speed and ended 5th. Nothing much to talk about but flukes have never given a chance to talk about them!
Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’desperately’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) and staying 2000m will be no problem for him. But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. The connections may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon !
Messalina(Alnasr Alwasheek-Palazzio) and Red Renegade(Placerville- Sky Rocket) though trained by same trainer but belong to two different and powerful owners and if decide to run together in monsoon Derby will give goose pimples to many !
Messalina, daughter of Pallazzio is a daughter of a sprinter/ miler and if Icebreaker(daughter of Iceberg – a sprinter) can win 2 races of 2400m why can’t Messalina win a 2000m race ? The class , the speed and training may help her.
Red Renegade won a 1600m race from start to finish in a reasonably good time and though his dam Sky Rocket has to show nothing to talk about but the grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced 2 very good stayers in Moment of Glory and Beautiful Babe(Placerville- Bazooka Babe) , who won upto 2400m .Of course, Beautiful Babe can be a cousin or aunt of Red Renegade depending upon your perception of inbreeding!
Red Renegade should have no problem to stay 2000m.
Can some body beat Fleet Indian – no, if he is serious . but will he be serious ?
But we do it – in India!
Hyderabad Derby on 2 Oct. , Pune Derby on 11 Oct. and Mysore Derby on 18 Oct. may bring out some unexpected and unpleasant results.
Why?
Because , there is no outstanding runner at any of these racing centers, although Jacqueline and Aboline at Bangalore have categorically established their superiority over others but will they be running in these regional classics is to be seen from the final acceptance.
If they accept to run, then they are the winners! But will they run?
Ignoring them and accepting that they may not run in these regional classics , I must sat that following are my preferred (not selections) ‘runners’ for the regional Derbies…in alphabetical order :
Hyderabad : Al Fatha, Fleet Indian, Messalina, Red Renegade and Spot on
Pune :Cabriolet, Confiserie, Red Dragon , Sea Ruler
Mysore :Classerville, Gypsy Magic, Leonardo,Mystic Quest , Sprint Star.
I don’t know who will accept to run these races and a detailed analysis isa waste of time and therefore, I’ll take only Hyderabad Derby at this stage . for others I’ll express my opinion after acceptance to save my time and effort.
Hyderabad monsoon Derby:
Many runners will take part in this race but most probably the winner will emerge from Al Fatha, Fleet Indian, Messalina, Red Renegade and Spot On , if they decide to run. They are all 3year old and the factors to be considered for winning a race are : 1) performance, 2) class, 3) current form ,4) intention of connections 5) jockey,trainer, equipment change. Except the 4th. Factor all other factors are available in public domain.
Based on these parameters let us see what we can deduce about these contestants.
Al Fatha( Steinbeck-Anguilla) has always won as a fluke and failed as a favorite! His sire is maternal grandsire of Set Alight and his dam has won a race upto 2000m and Anguilla’s damsire EverydayII was a known stayer . In race no 116 after loitering in rear he picked up speed and ended 5th. Nothing much to talk about but flukes have never given a chance to talk about them!
Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’desperately’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) and staying 2000m will be no problem for him. But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. The connections may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon !
Messalina(Alnasr Alwasheek-Palazzio) and Red Renegade(Placerville- Sky Rocket) though trained by same trainer but belong to two different and powerful owners and if decide to run together in monsoon Derby will give goose pimples to many !
Messalina, daughter of Pallazzio is a daughter of a sprinter/ miler and if Icebreaker(daughter of Iceberg – a sprinter) can win 2 races of 2400m why can’t Messalina win a 2000m race ? The class , the speed and training may help her.
Red Renegade won a 1600m race from start to finish in a reasonably good time and though his dam Sky Rocket has to show nothing to talk about but the grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced 2 very good stayers in Moment of Glory and Beautiful Babe(Placerville- Bazooka Babe) , who won upto 2400m .Of course, Beautiful Babe can be a cousin or aunt of Red Renegade depending upon your perception of inbreeding!
Red Renegade should have no problem to stay 2000m.
Can some body beat Fleet Indian – no, if he is serious . but will he be serious ?
9/23/2009
3 year old winner- some opinions
3 year old runners …
A thoroughbred , whether born on 31 December(last year) or 1st. Jan this year will becomes 1 year old on 1st. Jan of next year of his/her date of birth . A runner born in January/February is MORE MATURE in July –Oct than the one born in April/May/June .
The winning chance of a first time runner(3 yo) must be considered on following basic parameters:
1) pedigree and its suitability for the distance of the race
2) current form( track work)
3) jockey
4) trainer’s performance
After June/July the factors to be taken in consideration are :
1) previous performance
2)current form
3) pedigree
4) jockey
5) connections intentions
6) trainer’s plan for that runner
studying these factors without prejudice a punter will get better results.
A thoroughbred , whether born on 31 December(last year) or 1st. Jan this year will becomes 1 year old on 1st. Jan of next year of his/her date of birth . A runner born in January/February is MORE MATURE in July –Oct than the one born in April/May/June .
The winning chance of a first time runner(3 yo) must be considered on following basic parameters:
1) pedigree and its suitability for the distance of the race
2) current form( track work)
3) jockey
4) trainer’s performance
After June/July the factors to be taken in consideration are :
1) previous performance
2)current form
3) pedigree
4) jockey
5) connections intentions
6) trainer’s plan for that runner
studying these factors without prejudice a punter will get better results.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)