some stray thoughts about Hyderabad Derby

October month racing of 3 year olds in India is very peculiar . 3 regional Derbies are run in this month –Hyderabad monsoon Derby run always on 2nd. October, Pune and Mysore Derby run in 2nd. or 3rd. week of this month of October . All these races are run at 2000m and participants are 3 year old only. Except USA , where Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes (2400m) are run in May/June every year I do not recollect any other country runs 3 ‘regional’ classics – all 2000m within a short span of one month.

But we do it – in India!


Hyderabad Derby on 2 Oct. , Pune Derby on 11 Oct. and Mysore Derby on 18 Oct. may bring out some unexpected and unpleasant results.

Why?
Because , there is no outstanding runner at any of these racing centers, although Jacqueline and Aboline at Bangalore have categorically established their superiority over others but will they be running in these regional classics is to be seen from the final acceptance.
If they accept to run, then they are the winners! But will they run?

Ignoring them and accepting that they may not run in these regional classics , I must sat that following are my preferred (not selections) ‘runners’ for the regional Derbies…in alphabetical order :


Hyderabad : Al Fatha, Fleet Indian, Messalina, Red Renegade and Spot on

Pune :Cabriolet, Confiserie, Red Dragon , Sea Ruler

Mysore :Classerville, Gypsy Magic, Leonardo,Mystic Quest , Sprint Star.

I don’t know who will accept to run these races and a detailed analysis isa waste of time and therefore, I’ll take only Hyderabad Derby at this stage . for others I’ll express my opinion after acceptance to save my time and effort.

Hyderabad monsoon Derby:

Many runners will take part in this race but most probably the winner will emerge from Al Fatha, Fleet Indian, Messalina, Red Renegade and Spot On , if they decide to run. They are all 3year old and the factors to be considered for winning a race are : 1) performance, 2) class, 3) current form ,4) intention of connections 5) jockey,trainer, equipment change. Except the 4th. Factor all other factors are available in public domain.

Based on these parameters let us see what we can deduce about these contestants.

Al Fatha( Steinbeck-Anguilla) has always won as a fluke and failed as a favorite! His sire is maternal grandsire of Set Alight and his dam has won a race upto 2000m and Anguilla’s damsire EverydayII was a known stayer . In race no 116 after loitering in rear he picked up speed and ended 5th. Nothing much to talk about but flukes have never given a chance to talk about them!

Fleet Indian(Tejano- Afrodita) has a sprinter/miler as a sire and a stayer as the dam –a standard prescription of present day racing. He was beaten by Gypsy Magic by 1 ½ lengths in a1600m race in which he did take over the lead at 300m and lost to Gypsy Magic at 200m indicating that if ridden in check and ’desperately’ he may prove many of us wrong! His half brother Brown Sugar did win Hyderabad Derby and placed III in Bangalore winter Derby(2400m) and staying 2000m will be no problem for him. But the question is why was he loitering 5 to 6 lengths behind the leader in race no 116 and then put up a show of closing in on winner from 200m. The connections may be in a better position than me to explain this weird phenomenon !

Messalina(Alnasr Alwasheek-Palazzio) and Red Renegade(Placerville- Sky Rocket) though trained by same trainer but belong to two different and powerful owners and if decide to run together in monsoon Derby will give goose pimples to many !

Messalina, daughter of Pallazzio is a daughter of a sprinter/ miler and if Icebreaker(daughter of Iceberg – a sprinter) can win 2 races of 2400m why can’t Messalina win a 2000m race ? The class , the speed and training may help her.

Red Renegade won a 1600m race from start to finish in a reasonably good time and though his dam Sky Rocket has to show nothing to talk about but the grand dam Bazooka Babe has produced 2 very good stayers in Moment of Glory and Beautiful Babe(Placerville- Bazooka Babe) , who won upto 2400m .Of course, Beautiful Babe can be a cousin or aunt of Red Renegade depending upon your perception of inbreeding!
Red Renegade should have no problem to stay 2000m.

Can some body beat Fleet Indian – no, if he is serious . but will he be serious ?