Indian Derby - a preview

INDIAN DERBY – 2010

I started writing this article before acceptance , but could finish only after acceptances have been published.

I’ll start with a prologue.

Long ago ( 3 ½ years in horseracing is very long) , to be exact – in Jul 2006, I wrote an article(still available in IHRB Archives) on Indiarace.com with the heading ‘MAM has all the Aces…’ and listed out his promising runners – Southern Empire, Haunting Memories, Secret Memory ,Diabolical ,et al and opined that he can win most of the forthcoming classics. He did win most of the classics and added a new word to Indian racing dictionary – ‘doosra’ . Many before him tried this formula ,succeeded sometimes, but failed most of the time!

To be honest to him, I must say that this is an universal practice! He was not the first one to start or invent it !

Why am I starting with a ‘dead’ issue?
Because , this year we have 3 hopefuls belonging to a ‘jodi’ – one of which may win Indian Derby . They are – in order of my preference – Jacqueline, Bruckner and Onassis.
Most probably, I presume, all the three will be running in the Derby.

Many ‘experts’ opine that Morvi cup winner or Ruia cup winner normally loses Indian Derby . Their opinion is based on last few year’s results - they never bother or try to study and analyse ,these races properly because expressing an opinion on the net is free. I’ll not comment on them because I’ve no time . RR Byramjee has won more Indian Derbies after winning Morvi/Ruia cups than any other trainer and it helped him to get better odds!

In my opinion there are 5 contenders for Indian Derby 2010 and they are, in alphabetical order:
Becket
Bruckner
Jacqueline
Native Knight
Onassis

I’ve already written enough about Jacqueline and Native Knight and will reproduce only relevant points about them. Therefore , I’ll talk more about others.

Becket( Hawk Wing-Boiling River) with Roman dosage(8-5-12-1-0) is a perfect specimen of current breeding practices. Take one of prominent sire/dam line( to reduce cost of breeding) and hope that second or third generation of inferior partner will produce a good juvenile . The dam(Boiling River) and grand dam(Burning River) of Becket did not perform/race on the race track, but the great grand dam Prospector’s fire did produce grade I winners and P Fire’s dam Native Street was a very successful runner and producer of classics and graded race winners but is a 4th generation ancestress! But that is not the point . The most astonishing point which most of the ‘experts’ failed to recognize was that Becket’s grand dam – Burning River (20-20-21-1-0) has 62 Roman dosage points ! A thoroughbred cannot have more than 64 dosage point and here we have an un-raced mare with almost maximum points. Strange facts – but facts they are. Why she did not race? Was she unsound or had crooked legs or some other deformity will never be known to an ordinary punter but it does ,indirectly, reflects on the running pattern of Becket. Even the great grand dam – Prospector’s Fire(22-16-18-4-0) has 60 dosage points – rarely seen these days in the pedigree of even champion sires!

Leaving the un-answered questions behind, let us look at the positives of this runner.
Hawk Wing( Woodman-La Lorgnette ) (dosage: 9-3-16-2-0),trained by A O’Brien was highest rated international (133) 4yo during his heydays beating French Derby and ‘Arc’ winner Dalakhani(132). Losing 2000Guineas to Rock of Gibraltar he was installed favorite(9/4) for Epsom Derby and lost it by 2 lengths to stable mate Chaparral(9/2). Chaparral was 3rd. at bend and Hawk Wing was 5th. in mid bunch and while on entering straight Chaparral sped away from the field followed by HW and both were almost 12 lengths ahead of the field at the finish. A ‘doosra’ is not unique to India only!
Sire of HW – Woodman(Mr.Prospector-Playmate) (20-10-26-0-0) born in USA raced in Ireland and similar to Hawk Wing was a champion 2yo of his time. Like Hawk Wing he also suffered injuries and retired to stud after 5 races , but he produced many classic winners –in addition to Hawk Wing. Hansel(winner of Preakness and Belmont(2400m) in 1991) was perhaps the best of them.

But the staying ability of a thoroughbred, normally, does not come from the sire and the dam ,grand dam and great grand dam through various male and female channels pass it on to the offspring . I’ll not go to genetic multiplicity and to remain readable will use only layman terminology.

The staying ability comes through mitochondria. Mitochondria is the key .

Boiling River, Burning River – never had much/any chance to perform on the track but had superb Roman dosage and this inheritance can not be ignored. Let us have a look at other female contributors.
La Lorgnette(Val de l’Orne-The Temptress) (2-0-14-6-2) dam of Hawk Wing is the key to the Bangalore Derby win of Becket. She was the champion Canadian female race horse ,very tall(17.1 hh), well built ,winner of Canadian Oaks and many other graded races. To cut the long story short let us have a fleeting glance at Becket’s performance. A winner of all the races in which he participated , I’ll consider only his Hyderabad win on Invitation weekend where he pulverized a decent field and followed it up in Bangalore Derby. Though his Derby win with poor timings does not enhance his reputation. He is the only threat to Jacqueline and can beat her ,if the ‘luck of the race’ goes against her. If he has better ‘current form’ his chances may improve further, but if Jacqueline’s form is better she may continue her winning streak.


Bruckner(Ikhtyar-Allies Serenade) (6-1-7-0-0) , a nephew of Onassis – his competitor in the Derby, has a bit confusing pedigree – with a mix of speed and stamina in the top and bottom section of his pedigree; his performance, except Kolkata Derby win also does not offer any clue . His win in Kolkata Derby in record time is a fact, but Roman dosage fail in this case. The reason is not far to seek.
His sire Ikhtyar(Unfuwain-Sabria) (dosage:10-4-14-2-0) has won and placed in several graded races of 2000m, but the grandsire Unfuwain(Northern Dancer- Height of Fashion) (11-7-14-4-2) has won races upto 2400m. why? Because Height of Fashion(Bustino-Highclere)(3-2-3-8-6) is the major influence in the staying prowess of all the progeny and descendents of this stamina oozing line . Height of Fashion is the dam of Epsom Derby winner Nashwan and Nayef who won $ 3.5 million in stakes. Unfuwain has also produced 3 Irish Oaks winners in Petrushka, Lailani and Bolas.
The tail line of Bruckner also enhances his staying ability. His dam Allies Serenade (Allied forces-Rahy’s Serenade) after winning Mysore Derby was placed 4th in ‘all ladies’ Indian Derby 2004 because the first 4 position were occupied by fillies – Psychic Flame,Estonia,Sprungli,Allies Serenade and loitering in the rear in 17 horse field she ended 2 ½ lengths behind the winner confirming her ‘closing prowess’ which she must have given to her progeny who can reproduce her performance ,if given go ahead, against his owner/stablemate – Jacqueline! But will he get it ? Perhaps – no.

Jacqueline(King Charlemagne-Talita Kumi) is an import from Europe like Astral Flash and Polish Patriot. Here I want to use an analogy. If we equate the racing in Mumbai with the quality of product (TBs) with US, racing at Bangalore with TBs at England and France , the products of Germany and Italy will match with Hyderabad.. No disrespect to anyone but an assessment which is personal and therefore may be affected by prejudice and bias . Of course a Fedrico Tesio may create a history but how many Tesios we can find in TB industry. Perhaps none. Not now. Commercial compulsions has forced Tesios to follow the dotted line. Leaving aside the diversion, let us look at Jacqueline(4-0-17-1-2) . a fairly impressive ,balanced pedigree which can partake with mid –distance races and classic distances too! Coming back to pedigree I find following . King Charlemagne (7-1-30-0-0) a proven sprinter sire and conforming to the current breeding practices covered Talita Kumi(5-1-9-2-4) a confirmed stayer (won 200m and 2200m races) and the result was a foal called Jacqueline(4-0-17-1-2) which withourt much effort indicated a TB well suited to a mile and above. She won a 1200m race coming from 10th. position and ended 3rd. in next race (1400m) from 12th position . It is immaterial that a win in this second run of her career would have made her richer by more than half a million rupees! In the third run of her career she won Rs.39,00,000 prize money and is trying to win a classic in the 4th. attempt. Of course some runners have Derby in their second or third attempt. The sire line - does not provide any comfort, confidence or encouragement for her ability but the dam line does. While King Charlemagne is a pure sprinter his dam is a runner up in two Oaks( Hollywood and Del Mar Oaks) runs in USA . Talita Kumi has also won 2 races at 2000m and 2200m and her dam Temple Music did win 4 races in her career. Correlating various factors it seems that Jacqueline is a potential and serious contender for this Derby.
Above opinions were expressed before Bangalore summer Derby run. She has won 3 Indian classics till date and is bound to be a favorite for Indian Derby. On merit she is a cinch – but do we honour, appreciate, admire and acknowledge merit in India? If your answer is yes, then tell me why more Indians win Noble Prize when they migrate to foreign countries!

Native Knight( Placerville- Native Tactics) apparently has no great bloodlines and is one of 70 odd produce of Placerville of 2006 .Though his dam has won 6 races but they were all sprint races and do not strengthen his chances for classic distances. Then how could he finish TWICE 1 ½ lengths behind two hard ridden class I runners ?Native Tactics(Blue Bird-Miss Oriental) is a ‘got abroad’ who came in foal and did her racing in India-trained by DR Byramjee and owned by D Khaitan .Blue Bird – born in USA was a champion sprinter who raced in Ireland and placed in several graded races.Miss Oriental(Habitat-Miss Bangkok) with Roman dosage(29-7-9-1-0) did not race and after producing 2 nondescript progeny in USA, was imported and Native Tactics is her first foal born in India. She was subsequently covered always by Young Senor .Thus apparently , the immediate female line gives the impression that Native Knight may do well in sprint races . But that is not true.A breeding axiom – reinforced and confirmed by genetic studies states that many times the attributes of grand children or great grandchildren resemble more than the next generation ( son/ daughter) .Storm Bird(Roman Dosage, 11-7-16-0-0) -sire of Blue Bird was also sire of Storm Cat (covering fee $ 500,000), was a champion sprinter and Habitat(dosage 13-14-13-4-2) – sire of Miss Oriental was a champion miler but Ivory Dawn- the dam of Blue Bird who never raced had a dosage(4-21-17-2-0) .Ivory Dawn( Sir Ivor-Dusky Evening) has a very impressive parentage . Sir Ivor(Sir Gaylord-Attica) was the winner of many classics including Epsom Derby and his ‘turn of foot’ was amazing. In Epsom Derby ,ridden by Lester Piggot ,he ran off the pace holding his horse till 200m and found himself 4 lengths behind connaught –ridden by young Sandy Barclay .He loosened the reigns , gave a tap to Sir Ivor and he won easing up by one length.The trainer of Sir Ivor – Vincent O’Brien had placed a bet of 500 pounds each way for Epsom Derby win , with a bookie BEFORE Sir Ivor started his racing career as a 3 year old – almost more than a year before , he ran his FIRST RACE!He is also very well ‘sex balanced’ with Sir Gaylord who is sire of both –Sir Ivor from the sire side and Habitat from the dam side ( I hope puritans will forgive me for making these silly statements – because I’m writing for a common punter) . Sir Gaylord a English horse went to USA and after beating them on their home ground in some races he became the favorite for Kentucky Derby but due to a hairline fracture few days before the race his Triple Crown dream was shattered . He was retired to stud .The question now is ? Did Native Knight receive some of the traits from these versatile and superior thoroughbreds?The answer is : he did. His two runs in the company of the best western India runners confirm this.But, what is in store for him in western India ? a place in Indian Derby- at the most . But he can add a classic to his name – a regional classic, not an Indian classic. Abs Fab has done that last year , Aboline is trying to do that this year.
Native Knight may be able to do that – somewhere, but away from Mumbai .Of course he can win the same ‘amount’ of money by placing in Indian Derby.
A new twist has been given to NK’s story. Poonawalla wanted –whole or a part of this horse but the deal fell through. I feel the connections have made a wrong decision!

Onassis (Glory of Dancer-Rahy’s Serenade) (5-1-9-1-0) has a very interesting pedigree. His dam is the maternal grand dam of Bruckner ,so he becomes ‘mama’ of Bruckner. Whether he acts as a ‘Kans mama’ of lord Krishna or has a benign affection for his ‘Bhanja’ will be known only after Indian Derby has been run. That’s not all . He is also related to Native Knight through Sir Ivor and Sir Gaylord. Any way all these relationships we will discuss after Derby if anyone of these two are able to upset the applecart of Jacqueline and Becket!
Onassis’s sire has produced 2 Indian Derby winners(Hotstepper and Antonios) in 2008 and 2009 and will create a unique record in Indian racing history if Onassis wins this Derby. It will also enable F K Rattonsey to emulate the hat trick feat of Indian Derby wins achieved by Ranjit V Bhatt!
Glory of Dancer(Shareef Dancer- Glory of Hera) (7-5-14-0-2) is a well known Indian sire and has a legitimate claim to produce better class runners because he has Northern Dancer, Forli, Nearctic ,Nearco in his pedigree chart but it is the female line(tail line) which gives him the ability to produce stayers .
Dam of Onassis – Rahy’s Seranade (Rahy-Shishma) (9-1-13-3-2) is a perfect example of a ‘conduit’ mare and has produced Frida Kahlo(stayer) and Diego Rivera(sprinter) when mated with different sires. At the end of her ‘productivity period’ she has given birth to Onassis, who was born at the wrong time and with wrong ownership!

I’m not trying to degrade or downgrade anybody but trying to emphasize the anomalous reality that with limited options (2 or 3 racetracks in the peak season) available in India compared to US(more than 50 or 60) and UK (more than 8 or 10) the adjustments, give and take policy does override the racing scenario – anywhere in the world.

These are my opinions, observations and inductive/deductive inferences based on experience and a bit of knowledge and I do not expect a reader to agree ‘in toto’
With me. In horseracing no one agrees with or accepts anyone else.

Fortnightly appraisal-I

I have decided to compile the performance appraisal every fortnight ,to save time, and after appraisal no IV this is the first fortnightly appraisal covering my selections between 13 Jan- 28 Jan.


Mumbai - 13 Jan

I(no tip-0), II ( No tip – 0), III( +2-1), IV( +7/4), V(-1), VI ( + 8/10), VII (-2), VIII( (-3), IX((-1), tax (-1.1)
Net win/loss = - 4.05

Bangalore – 15 Jan

I( -1), II(+3/2), III(-1), IV(-1), V(-1), VI (-1), tax -0.6
Net win/loss = - 4.10

Bangalore – 16 Jan

I(+6/10 – 1), II(+74), III((-1), IV(+6/10-1), V(-1), VI (-1), VII(-1), tax -0.9
Net win/loss = - 3.95

Mumbai – 17 Jan

I(-1), II (+ 3/2), III( +7/2 – 2), IV(+9/4), V(+9/4 – 1), VI( -2), VII(-1), VIII(-1),IX(+2) tax -1.3

Net win/ Loss = + 2.20

Hyderabad – 17 Jan
I(-1), II(-1), III(+4/10), IV(-1), V(-1), VI9-1), VI(-1), VII(-3), VIII(-1), IX(-1). Tax (-1.1)

Net win/loss = -9.70

Mumbai – 21 Jan

I(+8-1), II( +3), III(+7/10), IV(-1), V(-3), VI(+2), VII(-1), VIII(+3/2 -2), tax (-1.3)

Net win /loss = + 5.95

Bangalore – 23 Jan

I(-2), II(-1), III(+7/10), IV( +15/4), V(+6-2), VI(-1), VII(-1), VIII(-1), IX(-1) , tax (-1.2)

Net win/loss = + 0. 25

Hyderabad Derby Day

my choice

1)xxxxxxxx1-4-5xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
2) 4-3-2
3) (3-4-10)
4) 6-1-4
5)7-4-10
6) 3-5-14
7)(7-13-3)
8) (16-12-9-6)
9) 4