12/22/2009

why punters lose money

Why punters do not win much at races ?

Because they think that the money they bet is their money and their decision (selection) can not be questioned (correct)…
Their thinking is right, because it is their money – but their decision/(s) may not be right…

I keep experimenting on my handicapping methods and introduce them in an innocuous way to the racing ‘pundits’ occasionally. I did it on IR.com during 2004/2005 and 2007 and also on IHRB forum during summer 2007…
I offered tips on Turfparrot.com under this plan in March/April 2008 and if someone among you would have believed in my ‘handicapping ability’ he would have won more than Rs. 1,30,000/-…

How ?

I started with Fleeting Arrow(3/1) on 29 Mar08 followed by Noble Prince (5/2) on 30 Mar08 and then on 5 Apr08 selected Absolute Reality(7/2) followed by Dancing Glory (16/10 – 20% = 13/10) on 6 Apr 08…

Only one tip for the day with unambiguous opinion…

A ROLL of Rs. 1000/- on these 4 tips will give a return of more than Rs.1,36,000/- (10% tax) or Rs.1,23,000/- (26% tax) within 9 days…

Sometimes, following others( stupid blabbers) also pays…


But the icing on the cake is the following tête-à-tête on the same site between me and the readers…(only a part is reproduced)



Userid
:
chanakya (Guest)
Reply
:
thanks to all for the kind words...I will try to post regularly about big events...well goldbug,after more than a year I have notseen you...
Date/Time
:
31/03/08 21:43:18




Userid
:
chanakya (Guest)
Reply
:
R Bijlani did predict clearly that F Arrow isbetter than others in IHRB forum before me but Ican not post my'free' selections before 11am...
Date/Time
:
01/04/08 23:39:40



Userid
:
tonguencheek (Guest)
Reply
:
WELL DONE!!!!CANT GET BETTER THAN THIS .
Date/Time
:
29/03/08 18:39:16



chanakya (Guest)
Fleeting Arrow
29/03/08 11:34:14 am
Fleeting Arrow should win from archipenko in atight finish... based purely on past performance ,speed rating,track surface(not TW) , only...
Userid
:
milo (Guest)
Reply
:
Well done you called it correctly again just likethe bangalore million.
Date/Time
:
30/03/08 18:30:36




Userid
:
goldbug
Reply
:
chanakyaji,you are making this a habit.keep it up.
Date/Time
:
31/03/08 17:37:24



Userid
:
chanakya (Guest)
Reply
:
yr appetite seems to be too big...my choice - Absolute Reality - was 7/2 at Mumbai...very good and reasonable odds...
Date/Time
:
06/04/08 11:52:08




chanakya (Guest)
St. Leger
30/03/08 10:52:08 am
Noble Prince runs off pace , but if can be brought within 3 to 4 lengths of the leader at 600 can win this race fromS Success and Yana... positioning at 600 to 5oo will decide the final outcome...

chanakya (Guest)
Dancing Glory
06/04/08 12:25:52 pm
Dancing Glory should win his race...


Userid
:
Prakash (Guest)
Reply
:
With Belose riding it, its a guessing game. Anyother rider & I would have my full bet.
Date/Time
:
06/04/08 13:22:25




chanakya (Guest)
Absolute Reality and Cavaradosi
05/04/08 12:22:58 pm
today all races are open and competitive andnon-favorites seem to have the upper hand... Absolute Reality may beat/lose by whisker from Cavaradosi... I'll still prefer A Reality...


Userid
:
chalukya (Guest)
Reply
:
there ws no third horse in the race.made your jobsimpler.Chankya ji try to give us some long pricedwinners.
Date/Time
:
05/04/08 22:35:19




Userid
:
chanakya (Guest)
Reply
:
yr appetite seems to be too big...my choice - Absolute Reality - was 7/2 at Mumbai...very good and reasonable odds...
Date/Time
:
06/04/08 11:52:08

I;m sure some of you might have read it earlier on TurfParrot.com . I gave 12 tips from 30/3/08 till 3/5/08 and 10 of them have won while 2 failed .

But that is not the point I want to make. The suspicion, doubt- on the ability of others makes a punter lose money by betting on false favorites created by phony tipsters .

In this game ,no one is expert, though some are knowledgeable; because the horse does not win or lose a race but he is made to win or lose by those homo sapiens who own/train/ride him.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have never seen such a ass who blabbers and blabbers. empty vessel makes more sound

Anonymous said...

DEAR SIR,
WHAT YOU ARE TRYING TO SAY??

SELF PROMOTION AFTER RESULT IS OF WHAT USE?

Who will mind following your tip if you write with confident?

Normaly when looses we all keep silence and when wins come forward with up color.

chanakya said...

anonymous no1
I must admire your patience to sed a response just after midnight(12.05),may be sufferig from insomania? Though I've sent a personal reply to you because I want to maintain a certain amount of decorum on my blog but decided to post your response without 'editing'your post to show your actual'character'.
However I'll make you an offer(Mario Puzo- Godfather) you can not refuse!
I'll provide you access to my blog (you can use your own blog also)to post your selections and at the end of a week or a month or a season ,let us compare who has won more money.If you accept , get i touch otherwise live in peace with your bretheren...

Anonymous 2
I'm told an anonymous is another name for an orphan. I'm sure you are not one who has been deserted by others because disguising reponse in language inadequacy is apparent in your response.
what I'm trying to say is condensed in last 2 paragraphs.
AFTER DECLARING IN nOV 09 before posting tips and WINNING a PROFIT of 250%in 35 days is SELF-PROMOTION ?
'angoor khatte hain kya?'(case of sour grapes?)
chanakya

Anonymous said...

Thia is like a Mohammed Ali and Joe Frazier re-match. Chanakya and Gosavi at each other's throats again?!?!

chanakya said...

Kumar,
please don't try to convert a serious debate into a frivolous 'show match'because you werenot a boxer anytime! I've avoided and will avoid in future this comparison and no one can drag me in any controversy.
Having said this,I'll request the reader to 'mull over' my words because I can not write long replies.
I do write long articles but those take long hours ad many times days to complete but a reply or a response should not take more than 15minutes.