some stray thoughts, opinions and free advice

There was an Indian king who was very fond of war. Most of able bodied men in his kingdom lost their lives due to this fad. His ‘vazir’ after listening the woes of widows called on a ‘wise man’ – a Brahmin, to help him. That wise man devised a game – called chess, and presented it to the king. After playing few games the king was so impressed and happy that he decided to reward the wise man-the poor Brahmin. The man said that he is a contended man living in his kingdom and want nothing from him. The king –‘master of what he surveys’, insisted that he must reward the old man. The man thought for a while and said: Oh my lord ,if you insist, then I ask you to give this poor Brahmin some wheat grains because I don’t own any land to till and live at the mercy of my benefactors. As you like this game ,I request you to give me enough wheat grains by putting 1 grain on first square ,2grains on second square, 4grains on the third square –doubling up the number of grains for the next square till the 64th square is filled up. It will help me and my family to live long.

The king ordered a bag of wheat grains and the game began.

By placing 1 grain on first square,2 grains on second square and 4 on third square the king was astonished to find that the bag was empty in 24th square. He ordered for more bags but found out soon that all the stock in his kingdom could not fill the 40th square . Bewildered , the king called his ‘vazir’ who whispered, after some quick calculations, that the demand of that man could not be met as he asked for–all the wheat produced in the world for next 2000 years!...

Long ago, in mid 70’s I purchased a book- ‘How to win Races’ from Surve, owner of a bookstall at Dadar(W) station. The price was Rs.50/- for a 64 page book! After reading it I went back to him to return the book and he graciously agreed to refund Rs.30/-. Offering me the money , with a smirk he told me that I am the 5th. man to return the book and he has already made Rs. 100/- from this Rs. 50/- book! The gist of the book was to advise the punter to double the amount of bet after a loss and keep on doubling till he wins and recovers his losses. Very fine idea- but is it practicable. Recently, on some blogs or sites I‘ve read similar suggestions, which are bound to take a punter to his doom.

Let us examine this stupid advice from real-life situation. Maybe, in my 5 to 6 years of postings on internet I've not used this word or come across this word and perhaps forgot to use it. Who knows? Not me, definitely- I can assure my reader/(s).

We know 7 to 8 races are run on a race day. We start with Rs. 100,000/- as our capital. We bet only 1% (Rs.1000) on first race and lose. We increase bet to Rs 2000/- for second race and lose it too. On third race we bet Rs.4000/-, on fourth Rs. 8000/- on fifth Rs. 16,000/- and on sixth our bet will be Rs. 32,000/- obviously.
After losing 6 races in a row our next bet should be Rs. 64,000/- but we are left with only Rs. 37,000/- because of this ‘progressive betting’ and if we lose this amount on the seventh race we have nothing left!!
This is NOT a hypothetical exercise! I’ve proof- recorded proofs , where ALL the first choice of many tipsters, race books, experts etc.-famous and unknowns alike, have failed in a season few times. Even one day’s failure is enough to send a punter to the ‘doghouse’!
Advice –Always and everytime follow your head , not your heart…