Tips and Tipsters – some opinions
Horseracing is a game of skill…Finding a winner of a race needs evaluation of many factors…More factors you include in your analysis better should be the result…How many punters (gamblers) have time, patience to follow these basicprinciples…Very few, but they are quick to blame everyone – tipster, jockey,trainer and owner…
I am an occasional punter and a casual tipster.
I have read many postings and comments on various sites and blogs about free tips offered and their failure and the start of a blame-game against the tipsters. Sometimes a tipsters fails badly- many times not even one of their first choice wins and in one tipster’s case out of 21 selections given by him for 7 races only 2 won and those were second or third choices! But this happens occasionally and will happen again . Many times the race card tips fails miserably but no one writes about it ! Punters don’t stop buying that race card! But if a blogger’s tips fails the adverse comments and the language used is unbelievable.
Why?
The surfer who jumps from one site to another and from one blog to next thinks that it is his ‘birthright’ to get the tips which should win ‘always’ and most of the time. Who has given him this right or perhaps the idea? No one knows, perhaps. I certainly do not know…
Occasionally successful, sometimes failed tips, some wild tips(and their occasional success) made me realize that a tipster is always held in ridicule by these so called smarty Jones…Why?
Most of the tipsters are smalltime race aficionados who graduallygraduate to this position from humble beginnings and therefore,most of these gamblers take their opinions as a `necessary evil' andrely more on `khabar' and blame the tipster if their `forecast'fails… they don't have guts to blame the `khabri'….But what is a tip ?
A tip is a personal assessment/opinion about the winning chance ofa runner in a race. It can be right and of course it may be wrong…But who is a tipster ?A person who with sufficient/insufficient expertise provides this assessment/opinion…And who is a punter ?A person with money( hard earned/borrowed/black) and wants to makeit ‘grow’ - fast…But they are of 2 types…1) few- very few- who know horseracing, handicapping, anduse `khabar' to their advantage…they are privileged…ordinarypunter can not compete with them…2) the majority- called ‘public’, the majority of punters who buy a racebook before entering a racecourse and dream of winning a fortune…they are backbone of horseracing…
This, type/category of punters are those who depend on tips, followtipsters and blame them when they lose…they pay peanuts and desire toown thoroughbreds instead of monkeys… (said by a thoroughbredbreeder )…but what's the truth ?
early 70's a tipster, by the name – Galloper , used to chargeRs.20/- for a day's tip…gold was Rs 250/10gm. and real estate flats were sold at Rs.50/ to Rs. 70/- per sq.ft. at Andheri in Bombay… today gold is sold at Rs.10,000/-per 10 gm. and the minimum rate per sq.ft. at Andheri is Rs. 7000/-…
A tipster( say VM Dalal) still charges Rs.50/- for a day's tip while his predecessor charged Rs.20/- in 1970…what does a punter want ? pay peanuts and want to own a thoroughbredand not monkeys??Not convinced ? OK …let me give you a real life example…
Few years back, to be exact and to the point ,during 2003 Puneracing season ,RWITC in a rare show of wisdom announced a prizefor the best tipster of a PARTICULAR DAY… the announcement wasmade on 10th. raceday in September and the 18th. raceday inOctober was the D day. I have written an article earlier onthis subject and will not repeat it but will present only thesalient points…the study was limited and only readily available data was selectedThe study was carried out in the following way…The tipsters selected were from Mumbai and they were …1)Cole tipster 2)Cole track reporter 3)money Spinner 4)Lucky Spinner 5)Times of IndiaTO EVALUATE ONLY THEIR FIRST CHOICE WAS CONSIDEREDthe prize money was a whopping Rs. 100,000/-On 10th.day ( the day of announcement of the prize) theirperformance was as follows:COLE….COLE TR…M SPINNER…L SPINNER...T O I-20 ……… -26 ……. + 12……. -8…………… - 16 .
But after declaration of prize, their selections improved and on 18th. day the return was-16………..-23...............+18…………+6...,,,,,,,,,-36except TOI every other tipsters ROI has improved in anticipation of winning the bumper prize…after the prize was won by Gujrat Samachar tipster, theperformance of ALL the above tipsters went down…what does it prove ? pay peanuts – get monkeys…………………….Think before you blame the tipsters for their failure…
7 comments:
Dear Chanakya ji
Excellent article, even I do give my choices sometimes and at times all of them fail, and at times some of them win at good odds. As you mentioned It is because usually i dont have the time to study all the factors and I give the tips casually.
By the way I have an enquiry, if a horse(s) is withdrawn before starters orders whether there is a chance for any manipulation? I mean if the favourite is withdrawn naturally the second favourite is becomes favourite. But if the second favourite is a false favourite and some upset is taken place what about the tips given. Is there any kind of impact on handicapping while some horses are withdrawn? Kindly clarify
Santhosh
dear sir,
could you be kind enough to offer your thoughts on the latest Offer to multiply money aimed at high value punters.
will it succeed.
You being a very accomplished punter with years of experience , is there anyone willing to set aside 25 lacs.
Mr. Santosh,
I've have to take some time to reply to your query, maybe on sunday i'll be able to answer you.
punter,
do you want to start a war of words again - on whose behalf, please let me know. However I'll answer your question after some time.
Mr. Santosh,
your question is very complex,especially in today's environment. But it has a serious and damning effect on horse racing in future.Manipulation has many ways and it can not be stopped in horseracing unless the administrators have a will to eradicate it!
well, if a fav is withdrawn the 2nd. fav automatically becomes the fav - false or real, only the result will tell. But before the start is given and you think that the fav is false; you can always decide in those few minutes or sometimes, seconds to bet on a horse of your choice and many times you will be proved right!
Manipulation is a way of life in India and not in horsseracing in particular- accept it or fight against it, decide yourself .
small punter,
please remember - money begets the money and that is the reason why these big businessmen with only 3 to 20% stakes in their compnies live happily everafter! They are intelligent,clever, practical, worldly-wise and know what they are doing.Many of them succeeded and few, greedy and overambitious have failed. Many casestudies can be cited to prove this point.
But horseracing is not a business - in a conventional sense . It isa business , certainly, but a risky business to say it politely.
you can not multiply money in this risky business but you can succeed, provided your decisions are backed by study,impartial judgement,sincere research and a will to succeed.
there are people who will invest few million dollars(many crore rupees) on a project they think will give good and profitable returns. sometimes they lose ,few times they win - only future can prove them right or wrong.
I've nothing more to say.
Dear Chanakya ji
Thanks for the reply, as you said I can choose the next one to play if the horse is withdrawn atleast 1 min before the starters, but what about the jackpot hunters? Will they not be losing out? As I am asking this because I am suffered with this once or twice.
For the funnyside of this one year back or so in mysore I got 10 consolation and jp while I kept 3 blankers in first three leg (all flukes) and all of them withdrawn and favourite horses won on that day.
Santhosh
Excellent article Chanakya
can I direct you to the petition at www.right2bet.net which is trying to fight for deregulation in the Online gambling industry?
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