Fleet Indian has very good chance to win this race followed by Cruising
those who want to be extra careful may play Fleet Indian eachway.
8/14/2009
8/12/2009
history repeats itself!
Noble Prince and Arabian Knight are two confirmed stayers ,in training, at present and their runs and pedigree study prove certain points.
Arabian Knight after winning Hyderabad St. Leger in smart time of 2m 56.7s tried his luck in Indian St. Leger but he(57kgs.) was beaten by Noble Prince(57kgs.) by 5 lengths in good going,indicating that at level weight in good going Noble Prince is better and will beat him. Few months later ,they met again ,in Bangalore summer St. Leger in 'soft going' with intermittent drizzle since morning ,renderning the track soft and penetrometer reading 5.6cm- an ideal condition for a true stayer and he beat Noble Prince convincingly.
After almost 1 1/2 yrs. both again ran togather in a 2400m race in Governor's cup at level (60kgs) weight in good going and Noble Prince repeated his Indian Leger win by defeating him by 5 1/2 lengths.
this proves few points:
a)many races are run true to form and ability of runners,
b)track condition - or 'going' as they call it plays an important role in the final outcome,
c)it is the mare which provides the staying ability to a progeny
d) in 'bad' going (PR value more than 5 cm) Arabian Knight should reverse the result as he did in Bangalore St. Leger.
Arabian Knight after winning Hyderabad St. Leger in smart time of 2m 56.7s tried his luck in Indian St. Leger but he(57kgs.) was beaten by Noble Prince(57kgs.) by 5 lengths in good going,indicating that at level weight in good going Noble Prince is better and will beat him. Few months later ,they met again ,in Bangalore summer St. Leger in 'soft going' with intermittent drizzle since morning ,renderning the track soft and penetrometer reading 5.6cm- an ideal condition for a true stayer and he beat Noble Prince convincingly.
After almost 1 1/2 yrs. both again ran togather in a 2400m race in Governor's cup at level (60kgs) weight in good going and Noble Prince repeated his Indian Leger win by defeating him by 5 1/2 lengths.
this proves few points:
a)many races are run true to form and ability of runners,
b)track condition - or 'going' as they call it plays an important role in the final outcome,
c)it is the mare which provides the staying ability to a progeny
d) in 'bad' going (PR value more than 5 cm) Arabian Knight should reverse the result as he did in Bangalore St. Leger.
8/10/2009
horseracing-present,.past and future
present day racing (international/national)
Many years ago someone( a racing journalist of a famous US newspaper) said - ‘it is impossible to find a thoroughbred who has been raised on hay,grass and water’…Perhaps he was right…
In that country a trainer may say – to his subordinates…
let us give him a regular shot of winstol…
what about a dose of testeterone…
ok, let us give him a bit of EPO before the big race…
A famous trainer whose ward had won Kentuky Derby and Preakness Stakes but failed miserably in the Belmont Stakes had admitted that his ward was on drugs ‘before’ the Triple crown’ races were run . He was asked to explain his ‘point of view’ before the US congress!
But in India we may hear above remarks and some more…
hey, xxx(jamadar) –what has happened to that bottle of oxygenated blood ? where did you keep it ?...
Are you sure it is his (name of horse) or of yyy(another horse)….
Where is that glucose bottle…have you destroyed all those syringes and capsules…
The diologue may go on…. The script may change… the players(actors) ,the scene, situation may differ from one country to another, ‘but’ the scenario and the theme(how to make money by fradulent means) will remain true always- forever…Why ?
Because, the general impression is that making money by crooked means is easier than by sweating it out in the field…
Right ?? occasionally… Wrong?... many times,because I have yet to ‘see’ a person who could make millions by these methods and live to enjoy the fruits of his ‘labour’…
Going back in the time frame….
An architect’s horse opened at 10/1 and ended as 6/4 in 80’s…he won millions but later on was refused credit bets…
Another – so called Lord xxx….very regular and active punter but finally disappeared from the racing scene –seen occasionally now…why I’m not sure…
Then the ‘brother duo’ of 60 and 80’s came like meteors and disappeared like that!
Machination and manipulations can not last for long in horseracing arena –howsoever big,influential, manipulative a person may be – fortunes have been lost by fools and fortunes have been made by wise,careful and calculative guys.
No need to give more examples but one thing is true …
U can fool all for sometime and some for all time, but can not not fool all the people for all the time…
I think,you will get some clues how to make money – by being honest to yourself – not to others!
Many years ago someone( a racing journalist of a famous US newspaper) said - ‘it is impossible to find a thoroughbred who has been raised on hay,grass and water’…Perhaps he was right…
In that country a trainer may say – to his subordinates…
let us give him a regular shot of winstol…
what about a dose of testeterone…
ok, let us give him a bit of EPO before the big race…
A famous trainer whose ward had won Kentuky Derby and Preakness Stakes but failed miserably in the Belmont Stakes had admitted that his ward was on drugs ‘before’ the Triple crown’ races were run . He was asked to explain his ‘point of view’ before the US congress!
But in India we may hear above remarks and some more…
hey, xxx(jamadar) –what has happened to that bottle of oxygenated blood ? where did you keep it ?...
Are you sure it is his (name of horse) or of yyy(another horse)….
Where is that glucose bottle…have you destroyed all those syringes and capsules…
The diologue may go on…. The script may change… the players(actors) ,the scene, situation may differ from one country to another, ‘but’ the scenario and the theme(how to make money by fradulent means) will remain true always- forever…Why ?
Because, the general impression is that making money by crooked means is easier than by sweating it out in the field…
Right ?? occasionally… Wrong?... many times,because I have yet to ‘see’ a person who could make millions by these methods and live to enjoy the fruits of his ‘labour’…
Going back in the time frame….
An architect’s horse opened at 10/1 and ended as 6/4 in 80’s…he won millions but later on was refused credit bets…
Another – so called Lord xxx….very regular and active punter but finally disappeared from the racing scene –seen occasionally now…why I’m not sure…
Then the ‘brother duo’ of 60 and 80’s came like meteors and disappeared like that!
Machination and manipulations can not last for long in horseracing arena –howsoever big,influential, manipulative a person may be – fortunes have been lost by fools and fortunes have been made by wise,careful and calculative guys.
No need to give more examples but one thing is true …
U can fool all for sometime and some for all time, but can not not fool all the people for all the time…
I think,you will get some clues how to make money – by being honest to yourself – not to others!
8/04/2009
mare is the key- part I
(this is the first part of a series of articles dealing with pedigree, mitochondria, X-factor, Roman’s dosage and other aspects of a thoroughbred)
Fedrico Tesio said this- breeder of Nearco, who has changed the thoroughbred racing across the globe.
I also believe that mare is the key – but I’m not Fedrico Tesio and though race after race proves this dictum , most of the punters, overlook this point and most of the ‘experts’(if they are!) ignore it or keep this info under wrap .
Why?
In a male dominated environment the female ,usually, gets sidelined and has to prove her quality/equality/superiority again and again and therefore, I will use some past performances of Indian female runners as an example to prove the dictum – ‘mare is the key’.
In classic and prestigious races pedigree plays a deterministic role and must be studied carefully. Moreover, most of the Indian bred need a closer scrutiny of their breeding as well as the ‘current form’ to assess their winning probability.
Though pedigree is a good and honest pointer in a sprint even upto a mile ,in my opinion, it is a decider in Classics and route races and as usual I will emphasize on the female line as it is the true inheritor and transferor of the stamina in the thoroughbred lore , because a Razeen or a Placerville may sire a champion sprinter and a Derby winner through different mares in the same year but a mare is more faithful to her genetic profile .
I will use a combination of pedigree and performance scale to prove these remarks. Moreover , Dr. Roman’s dosage theory is also very useful in races of more than 2000m.
Bangalore St.Leger 2008 was touted as an extension of Indian St. Leger (won by Noble Prince) by all without considering all the variables- the most important being the pedigree pointers for a race more than 2000m. Pedigree helps a sprinter as well as a route runner and overlooking it extracts a heavy price – especially in a bad ‘going’. In India we are fond of using superlatives, like ‘impeccably bred’ without even understanding the meaning of those words, to please the powers that be, and confusing the innocent punters ,nay, the gamblers who know nothing of the nuances and follow blindly these ‘experts’.
I will use a combination of pedigree and performance scale to assess them – and though the result is known I’ll not allow it to affect my reasoning. Moreover, in this article (part I) I’ll place more emphasis on Dr. Roman’s dosage theory which is also very useful in races of more than 2000m.
Noble Prince(NP) (Placerville Amazing Princess) ( dosage:11-4-14-0-1) had the best ‘current form’ and beaten all the competitors in one or more races and ,therefore, was a natural choice for favoritism . Let us examine his profile a little more. Noble Prince – a dickey legged COLT is the 6th foal of her dam and has almost ‘similar’ dosage profile as Sweeping Success(12-5-12-0-1)- winning/losing races in Mumbai, reinforces the usefulness of the dosage theory .
Amazing Princess(AP) (Riyahi- Kirov Ballet) (7-3-16-2-0) dam of Noble Prince raced at Chennai ,owned by Dr. Ramaswamy and trained by late JH Foley. After winning South India Oaks JH Foley brought her to Mumbai to have a go at Indian Oaks but failing miserably in Indian Oaks she went back to her home . She won many races there and distinctly has stamina genes but her dam Kirov Ballet(10-7-33-0-0) had too much of brilliance and ‘turn of foot’ which she has transmitted to her grandson Noble Prince as theoretically ,sometimes , grandsire and grand dam contribute more than the parents …Pied Princess (13-15-16-2-2) granddam of Amazing Princess and Ravela(3-1-0-12-2) contribute the stamina genes to their descendents. With all these positives Noble Prince lost the race .
Why ? The answer lies in the pedigree profile of Arabian Knight!!
Arabian Knight (Brave Act- Arabian Rose) (dosage: 3-1-8-8-4) is the 2nd foal of his dam and is an outright stayer. He won the Stayers’Cup (3000m) at Hyderabad in March 2008 in record time(3m 10.6s) start to finish and except Star of Windsor who ran this race in 3m 7.4s at Chennai in 2005(very fast dusty, dry track on that day) his timings were fastest during last 40+ yrs for this distance allover Indian race tracks.
His sire Brave Act (5-3-10-6-4) son of Persian Bold(12-4-2-12-2) is a big stamina influence for his progenies and though his offspring may lack the turn of foot for a sprint they can outrun others in route races –longer the better . Brave Act had been mated earlier with mares who lack brilliance but have lot of stamina and route races being only 8 to 10 % of all the races run in India his progenies did not make any impact or impression .
Arabian Knight is termed a one paced runner and is a front runner as per his published race records . But he has an amazing pedigree profile and why he could not win more races baffles me .
His dam Arabian Rose (Razeen-Self Reliance) (dosage:5-1-11-12-5) could have run all day and would have won a race next day! She literally did that ! After winning Calcutta Derby on 5th Jan 97 and winning Calcutta Oaks on 11th Jan(within 6 days) she was sent to Mumbai to challenge Indictment( the eventual triple crown winner) for Indian Derby on 2nd Feb 97 .How did she fare ? she lost by a neck coming from 9th position at 400m . She ran 3 races of 2400m in 28 days winning two and losing Indian Derby by a neck to Indictment- a champion triple crown winner. No other filly except Amazing Bay and Littleover can equal or surpass her feat till date .
Self Reliance (Reliance-My Lovely Robe)- dam of Arabian Rose has a funny dosage profile (0-0-0-22-8) indicating surfeit of stamina and minimal brilliance resulting in her winning South Indian St. Leger and Oaks and placing in Indian oaks and Indian St. Leger during her classic age. Her progeny emulated her feat by winning oaks and winning and placing in various classics- Indian and regional .
Suffice it to say that the pedigree of female line and the male line of Arabian Knight was filled up excessively with stamina contributing ancestors and a bit of speed would have done wonders to the ‘line’
What does all this mean ?
In simple words, all the details, observations and the facts prove one cardinal point – that his pedigree will have its say only in a route( >2000m) race- longer the better…
How Arabian Knight could beat Noble Prince when the later beat him by more than 5 lengths in Indian St. Leger.
Because at Bangalore he ran his ‘appropriate’ distance in a heavy going – which was stamina sapping and having the best staying ability – much better than competitors won the race (2800m) by a distance in 3m 13.8s.
Of course he won a 3000m race in 3m 10.6 seconds – a 200m longer race in a shorter time !
Fedrico Tesio said this- breeder of Nearco, who has changed the thoroughbred racing across the globe.
I also believe that mare is the key – but I’m not Fedrico Tesio and though race after race proves this dictum , most of the punters, overlook this point and most of the ‘experts’(if they are!) ignore it or keep this info under wrap .
Why?
In a male dominated environment the female ,usually, gets sidelined and has to prove her quality/equality/superiority again and again and therefore, I will use some past performances of Indian female runners as an example to prove the dictum – ‘mare is the key’.
In classic and prestigious races pedigree plays a deterministic role and must be studied carefully. Moreover, most of the Indian bred need a closer scrutiny of their breeding as well as the ‘current form’ to assess their winning probability.
Though pedigree is a good and honest pointer in a sprint even upto a mile ,in my opinion, it is a decider in Classics and route races and as usual I will emphasize on the female line as it is the true inheritor and transferor of the stamina in the thoroughbred lore , because a Razeen or a Placerville may sire a champion sprinter and a Derby winner through different mares in the same year but a mare is more faithful to her genetic profile .
I will use a combination of pedigree and performance scale to prove these remarks. Moreover , Dr. Roman’s dosage theory is also very useful in races of more than 2000m.
Bangalore St.Leger 2008 was touted as an extension of Indian St. Leger (won by Noble Prince) by all without considering all the variables- the most important being the pedigree pointers for a race more than 2000m. Pedigree helps a sprinter as well as a route runner and overlooking it extracts a heavy price – especially in a bad ‘going’. In India we are fond of using superlatives, like ‘impeccably bred’ without even understanding the meaning of those words, to please the powers that be, and confusing the innocent punters ,nay, the gamblers who know nothing of the nuances and follow blindly these ‘experts’.
I will use a combination of pedigree and performance scale to assess them – and though the result is known I’ll not allow it to affect my reasoning. Moreover, in this article (part I) I’ll place more emphasis on Dr. Roman’s dosage theory which is also very useful in races of more than 2000m.
Noble Prince(NP) (Placerville Amazing Princess) ( dosage:11-4-14-0-1) had the best ‘current form’ and beaten all the competitors in one or more races and ,therefore, was a natural choice for favoritism . Let us examine his profile a little more. Noble Prince – a dickey legged COLT is the 6th foal of her dam and has almost ‘similar’ dosage profile as Sweeping Success(12-5-12-0-1)- winning/losing races in Mumbai, reinforces the usefulness of the dosage theory .
Amazing Princess(AP) (Riyahi- Kirov Ballet) (7-3-16-2-0) dam of Noble Prince raced at Chennai ,owned by Dr. Ramaswamy and trained by late JH Foley. After winning South India Oaks JH Foley brought her to Mumbai to have a go at Indian Oaks but failing miserably in Indian Oaks she went back to her home . She won many races there and distinctly has stamina genes but her dam Kirov Ballet(10-7-33-0-0) had too much of brilliance and ‘turn of foot’ which she has transmitted to her grandson Noble Prince as theoretically ,sometimes , grandsire and grand dam contribute more than the parents …Pied Princess (13-15-16-2-2) granddam of Amazing Princess and Ravela(3-1-0-12-2) contribute the stamina genes to their descendents. With all these positives Noble Prince lost the race .
Why ? The answer lies in the pedigree profile of Arabian Knight!!
Arabian Knight (Brave Act- Arabian Rose) (dosage: 3-1-8-8-4) is the 2nd foal of his dam and is an outright stayer. He won the Stayers’Cup (3000m) at Hyderabad in March 2008 in record time(3m 10.6s) start to finish and except Star of Windsor who ran this race in 3m 7.4s at Chennai in 2005(very fast dusty, dry track on that day) his timings were fastest during last 40+ yrs for this distance allover Indian race tracks.
His sire Brave Act (5-3-10-6-4) son of Persian Bold(12-4-2-12-2) is a big stamina influence for his progenies and though his offspring may lack the turn of foot for a sprint they can outrun others in route races –longer the better . Brave Act had been mated earlier with mares who lack brilliance but have lot of stamina and route races being only 8 to 10 % of all the races run in India his progenies did not make any impact or impression .
Arabian Knight is termed a one paced runner and is a front runner as per his published race records . But he has an amazing pedigree profile and why he could not win more races baffles me .
His dam Arabian Rose (Razeen-Self Reliance) (dosage:5-1-11-12-5) could have run all day and would have won a race next day! She literally did that ! After winning Calcutta Derby on 5th Jan 97 and winning Calcutta Oaks on 11th Jan(within 6 days) she was sent to Mumbai to challenge Indictment( the eventual triple crown winner) for Indian Derby on 2nd Feb 97 .How did she fare ? she lost by a neck coming from 9th position at 400m . She ran 3 races of 2400m in 28 days winning two and losing Indian Derby by a neck to Indictment- a champion triple crown winner. No other filly except Amazing Bay and Littleover can equal or surpass her feat till date .
Self Reliance (Reliance-My Lovely Robe)- dam of Arabian Rose has a funny dosage profile (0-0-0-22-8) indicating surfeit of stamina and minimal brilliance resulting in her winning South Indian St. Leger and Oaks and placing in Indian oaks and Indian St. Leger during her classic age. Her progeny emulated her feat by winning oaks and winning and placing in various classics- Indian and regional .
Suffice it to say that the pedigree of female line and the male line of Arabian Knight was filled up excessively with stamina contributing ancestors and a bit of speed would have done wonders to the ‘line’
What does all this mean ?
In simple words, all the details, observations and the facts prove one cardinal point – that his pedigree will have its say only in a route( >2000m) race- longer the better…
How Arabian Knight could beat Noble Prince when the later beat him by more than 5 lengths in Indian St. Leger.
Because at Bangalore he ran his ‘appropriate’ distance in a heavy going – which was stamina sapping and having the best staying ability – much better than competitors won the race (2800m) by a distance in 3m 13.8s.
Of course he won a 3000m race in 3m 10.6 seconds – a 200m longer race in a shorter time !
7/27/2009
free tip seekers
I do not write to please anybody but for 'swanth sukhoy' as they call it in sanskrit!
Long ago when I discovered-courtesy of one of my deceased friend, that I can express my views and opinions on the net I started writing on IR.com- only site available at that time, and must have written few hundred articles and perhaps more than 1000 responses. Free ,of course. Some of the articles were worth a research paper value. But in horse racing they don’t get that status- for obvious reasons.
After the departure of ‘old guards’ , I felt I’m unwanted by the new ‘guards’ and therefore , started this blog. I didn’t invite nor requested anybody to promote it .
I love horseracing and therefore, write about it . You may accept or reject what I say or write ,but if you respond –I expect you to be logical and sincere .
This is what I received from an anonymous writer :
Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "Indian racing scenario and some opinions":
Arre(expletive removed) ke,
racing tips de do, lecture nahin.
Kisko chahiye tera lecture?
Stupid kahinke
Publish this comment.
Reject this comment.
Moderate comments for this blog.
Posted by Anonymous to chanakya-on-racing at July 25, 2009 10:26 PM
Now , what should I say or write? Ignore it ,be more sarcastic or start to prove myself.
No I’ll will do none of above.
I’ve offered my tips for several years in IHRB and for a month on Turfparrot inApril 2008 because IR.com was out of action. A review on these is still available on IR.com under the heading ‘if a butterfly flaps her wings in Brazil….’ 9 out of 11 tips were correct – check it with the databank of –now defunct Turf parrot or with IHRB archives. What does it prove ? Nothing ,in fact, because you are as good as your last tip !
The final answer to this anonymous is – why should anybody(or a tipster) feed these freeloaders ?
Do I have an obligation- moral, legal, humanitarian or otherwise… I don't think so.
if somebody does not like what I say or write he can skip this blog or my writeups elsewhere...
But beggers can't be choosers and demand what they want...
A logical, reasoned out – may be outrageous reply will be appreciated and published…
Long ago when I discovered-courtesy of one of my deceased friend, that I can express my views and opinions on the net I started writing on IR.com- only site available at that time, and must have written few hundred articles and perhaps more than 1000 responses. Free ,of course. Some of the articles were worth a research paper value. But in horse racing they don’t get that status- for obvious reasons.
After the departure of ‘old guards’ , I felt I’m unwanted by the new ‘guards’ and therefore , started this blog. I didn’t invite nor requested anybody to promote it .
I love horseracing and therefore, write about it . You may accept or reject what I say or write ,but if you respond –I expect you to be logical and sincere .
This is what I received from an anonymous writer :
Anonymous has left a new comment on your post "Indian racing scenario and some opinions":
Arre(expletive removed) ke,
racing tips de do, lecture nahin.
Kisko chahiye tera lecture?
Stupid kahinke
Publish this comment.
Reject this comment.
Moderate comments for this blog.
Posted by Anonymous to chanakya-on-racing at July 25, 2009 10:26 PM
Now , what should I say or write? Ignore it ,be more sarcastic or start to prove myself.
No I’ll will do none of above.
I’ve offered my tips for several years in IHRB and for a month on Turfparrot inApril 2008 because IR.com was out of action. A review on these is still available on IR.com under the heading ‘if a butterfly flaps her wings in Brazil….’ 9 out of 11 tips were correct – check it with the databank of –now defunct Turf parrot or with IHRB archives. What does it prove ? Nothing ,in fact, because you are as good as your last tip !
The final answer to this anonymous is – why should anybody(or a tipster) feed these freeloaders ?
Do I have an obligation- moral, legal, humanitarian or otherwise… I don't think so.
if somebody does not like what I say or write he can skip this blog or my writeups elsewhere...
But beggers can't be choosers and demand what they want...
A logical, reasoned out – may be outrageous reply will be appreciated and published…
7/21/2009
Indian racing scenario and some opinions
Present day horseracing has degenerated from the ‘king of sports’ or ‘sport of kings’ to a game of gambling, though most of old fashioned race-goers refuse to admit this transition. When thoroughbred racing started in real earnest in 19th century beginning, winning a race, which used to be 2 to 4 miles long( sometimes run in the form of ‘heats’) and not the value of the stakes, was the norm of the day. In 20th century the importance slowly shifted to stakes money and in the later half of the century a punter ( who was a non-entity at the beginning and still is) gained acceptance (not recognition) as a necessary evil – to be tolerated and seen – but not heard by the racing administrators. These punters –called commoner during kings and queens reign, are now known as public or a punter- a misnomer for a gambler! The lure of easy money has also created another professional called a tipster along-with a trainer , jockey, vet and other qualified professionals who may not like to be grouped with a tipster.
But the truth is, sometimes stranger than fiction! .Today all these professionals can not exist for long in the absence of this man(or these men) called- tipster(s).
These men(ignoring hi-fi computer savy experts) ,many of them have very limited facility available, try to predict the winner of a race (few crore rupees are lost or won or change hands in every race)- sometimes for a fee and most of the times for a pittance called – salary, compensation, commission.
Trainers go on strike, jockeys go on strike ,even syces casual workers strike whenever they want and owners also can withdraw their horses from racing but two racing aficionados – called punters and tipsters do not , rather dare not and thus are reduced to a group called ‘necessary evil’.
Let us consider a situation. We know there are 4 to 5 thousand diehard punters in Mumbai-Pune, same number in Bangalore- Mysore circuit and about 3000+ in Hyderabad and same number in Kolkata , Delhi, Ooty,Chennai combined , adding up to a number close to 15,000 . Come what may , these chronic(pardon my lingo) aficionados will go to a racecourse to bet or sometimes watch the races . some of them bet in ‘petis’ or ‘half’ or ‘quarter’ but most of them bet in tenners or hundreds. These tenner-betters called public, commoner ,gambler are the backbone of Indian racing, at present . Remove them from the racing scene, these racing clubs –in India ,will collapse !
Why these penny punters(in England) or tenner-punter (in India) come to racecourse. In the hope of making money, obviously! They buy a racebook costing Rs.10/- or a racing-sheet(Rs.5) or even a newspaper(Re.1).
Selections given by these experts forces them, if they follow them, to put their money on a runner who may win or lose. Most of the time , they lose because they can’t study seriously the past performance, pedigree, form, and other parameters of the race because they have no time for these finesse.
All of them (penny punter and ‘peti’ punter) blame the tipster who with limited resources, knowledge and info provides/offers his opinion which may be correct but more often is wrong because allover the world the percentage of public choice(fav) is not more than 30 percent.
Why is it so?
Because homo sapiens (called human beings) have a genetic trait to take calculated risk, face dangers- after ascertaining the chance of coming out of it unscathed and this trait has given them an ability of logical reasoning ,rationalizing and of course an ability of ‘deception’. This ability of deception is manifested by giving a track in the dead of night(mid 20th. century), in and out running, using incorrect equipment etc. The list is endless.
Before we delve deep in this rigmarole of excuses put forward by one or all for losing their hard earned money or the deception perfected by many professionals let us have a look at the perception of a punter/race-goer- including professionals on the performance of the ‘scapegoats’ – the tipsters in the Indian racing scenario. Out of 10,000 hardcore punters allover India ,some have access to internet and those persons surf various websites and blogs to ‘read or see’ what is new on their site/blog. I also visit these blogs and sites too. Shyam/Swamy/Golmaster have an average of 400 visitors and Prakash Gosavi says that his blog has been visited by more than 600 persons very recently. I‘ve no data about websites though the owner of one website has told me that on a race day 2000 to 3000 persons visit his site. Being pessimist we can say that at least 1000 persons try to find out the opinion/tips of some persons they think know better than them. If they (visitors/punters/opinion-makers etc.) succeed they try to take credit for their intelligent(borrowed?) selections and if they fail then of-course these few punching bags( called tipsters) are always available to share and accept the blame without a murmur.
If they dare to complain they are shouted down , ridiculed and insulted. Inspite of that these opportunists still visit these websites/blogs regularly for the free info and tips .
Why? They have no option. Punters and tipsters have a love-hate relationship, which changes race to race and race day to race day. A casual tipster may survive on his own by betting on his fancy –once in a while, but if they stop offering tips- what a punter will do? Imagine if all the race books give all other info except tips newspapers/sites/blogs stop giving free selections what these peti-punters or race clubs will do in the absence of penny punter?
Gamblers will switch over to another form of gambling and breeders will sell their produce to buggy-owners! Open spaces of race clubs will be used by joggers and real sports persons( boys and girls) than pseudo-sportsmen! If our politiciansand builders lobby permit that to happen!
But we are discussing punter –tipster relationship or dependence. Historically punters came first and tipsters came later in this game . An average punter has resources ( money, risk taking ability, backup) but insufficient knowledge of the game while a tipster has knowledge( acquired, borrowed, spurious, fake) and both need each other for sustenance in racing.
While resource can be unlimited ,knowledge has a boundary , a limit due to inadequacy of the provider. In the context of a horse race this inadequacy becomes unforgivable though in any other commercial activity loss and profit are accepted without any complaint. In a business activity a net profit of 15 to 25 % after a year is gladly accepted but in racing activity after 3 hrs a return of 20 to 30% is considered inadequate. This brings us to a remark by an Indian breeder who said ‘pay peanuts you get monkeys’. If this person ( he/she) can say this to another who has paid few lacs to buy a thoroughbred why can’t a tipster(who receives few tenners or few hundreds) be allowed to use the same words. In a study carried by me in 2004 when a cash prize of Rs. 100,000/- was offered by RWITC during Pune season I had proved( available in another article) that the performance of tipsters had improved appreciably – though only one of them could win that prize.
This brings us to Bangalore summer Derby where most of the punters lost and most of the tipsters failed. I’m not going to single out any group – punter/tipster/owner/trainer/jockey for a blameworthy/praiseworthy performance but will try to bring out some facts and data overlooked , ignored by many.
Let us start with some harsh, real, economic facts.
Economy first: an owner buys a horse , hands over to a trainer and expects a decent return on his investment. A trainer tries to win (or return) as much as is possible to retain the goodwill and the future retainer ship by the owner and a jockey(retained or hired) tries to help them. This is an ideal situation .One out of 100 thoroughbred only performs well, rather do perform true to ‘form’ and brings laurels to all connected with him. Not all- they show variable performance pattern. This brings us to dubious, deceptive, false runs of a horse which are noted down by professionals ,including tipsters, and a consensual opinion is generated about a runner’s future prospects- which can be deceptively wrong.
Let us examine all the points made and above observations in the context of recent Bangalore summer Derby.
18 horses, biggest field ever for Bangalore Derby, faces the starter. Aboline from draw no 18 –farthest draw took over lead at 1950m belying the age old theory of unfavorable draw and won start to finish on a slowly rising track – contradicting another theory that a horse can not win a route (>2000m) race start to finish in a competitive field.
But did he really destroy the age old beliefs held by some. Perhaps, no! why do I say that ?
I said it before the race was run , that his dam Super Fan has run 43 times –a record for an US runner ( they run maximum only 7-10 times before retirement) proving durability, strength in the bloodline and her winning distance gave him a mitochondrial advantage to run over longer distances.
How did he beat Jacqueline – trip handicappers will explain in detail why did she lose by short head as I’m not doing post race analysis here !
Why was he missed by almost ‘all’ the tipsters? Gypsy Magic’s past 2 runs, imported jockey, apparently better time clocked by colts, deceptive Colt’s trial run etc. did help run at lucrative odds –though he was third favorite in the bookie’s ring
I’m not a regular or a professional tipster but did short-list him in my selections on 8th. July and 10th. July on IR.com and my blog respectively.
Today , horse racing has become a game for thick-skinned ,strong heart ,calculative, clever and deceptive person or a group who has these qualities in a collective format.
The tipsters( few of them very sincere) and track reporters who watch the morning track, analyse the past performance and look for the clues from jockey change, shoe change, equipment change are likely to be fooled by subtly deceptive methods and should be wary and careful, because the intentions of the connections ,now must be given prime importance, before he can say with a cautious remark that horse A is likely to win . The aura built around Gypsy Magic, Icebreaker, Aboline (colts trial)and many others is to be viewed in this light.
But the truth is, sometimes stranger than fiction! .Today all these professionals can not exist for long in the absence of this man(or these men) called- tipster(s).
These men(ignoring hi-fi computer savy experts) ,many of them have very limited facility available, try to predict the winner of a race (few crore rupees are lost or won or change hands in every race)- sometimes for a fee and most of the times for a pittance called – salary, compensation, commission.
Trainers go on strike, jockeys go on strike ,even syces casual workers strike whenever they want and owners also can withdraw their horses from racing but two racing aficionados – called punters and tipsters do not , rather dare not and thus are reduced to a group called ‘necessary evil’.
Let us consider a situation. We know there are 4 to 5 thousand diehard punters in Mumbai-Pune, same number in Bangalore- Mysore circuit and about 3000+ in Hyderabad and same number in Kolkata , Delhi, Ooty,Chennai combined , adding up to a number close to 15,000 . Come what may , these chronic(pardon my lingo) aficionados will go to a racecourse to bet or sometimes watch the races . some of them bet in ‘petis’ or ‘half’ or ‘quarter’ but most of them bet in tenners or hundreds. These tenner-betters called public, commoner ,gambler are the backbone of Indian racing, at present . Remove them from the racing scene, these racing clubs –in India ,will collapse !
Why these penny punters(in England) or tenner-punter (in India) come to racecourse. In the hope of making money, obviously! They buy a racebook costing Rs.10/- or a racing-sheet(Rs.5) or even a newspaper(Re.1).
Selections given by these experts forces them, if they follow them, to put their money on a runner who may win or lose. Most of the time , they lose because they can’t study seriously the past performance, pedigree, form, and other parameters of the race because they have no time for these finesse.
All of them (penny punter and ‘peti’ punter) blame the tipster who with limited resources, knowledge and info provides/offers his opinion which may be correct but more often is wrong because allover the world the percentage of public choice(fav) is not more than 30 percent.
Why is it so?
Because homo sapiens (called human beings) have a genetic trait to take calculated risk, face dangers- after ascertaining the chance of coming out of it unscathed and this trait has given them an ability of logical reasoning ,rationalizing and of course an ability of ‘deception’. This ability of deception is manifested by giving a track in the dead of night(mid 20th. century), in and out running, using incorrect equipment etc. The list is endless.
Before we delve deep in this rigmarole of excuses put forward by one or all for losing their hard earned money or the deception perfected by many professionals let us have a look at the perception of a punter/race-goer- including professionals on the performance of the ‘scapegoats’ – the tipsters in the Indian racing scenario. Out of 10,000 hardcore punters allover India ,some have access to internet and those persons surf various websites and blogs to ‘read or see’ what is new on their site/blog. I also visit these blogs and sites too. Shyam/Swamy/Golmaster have an average of 400 visitors and Prakash Gosavi says that his blog has been visited by more than 600 persons very recently. I‘ve no data about websites though the owner of one website has told me that on a race day 2000 to 3000 persons visit his site. Being pessimist we can say that at least 1000 persons try to find out the opinion/tips of some persons they think know better than them. If they (visitors/punters/opinion-makers etc.) succeed they try to take credit for their intelligent(borrowed?) selections and if they fail then of-course these few punching bags( called tipsters) are always available to share and accept the blame without a murmur.
If they dare to complain they are shouted down , ridiculed and insulted. Inspite of that these opportunists still visit these websites/blogs regularly for the free info and tips .
Why? They have no option. Punters and tipsters have a love-hate relationship, which changes race to race and race day to race day. A casual tipster may survive on his own by betting on his fancy –once in a while, but if they stop offering tips- what a punter will do? Imagine if all the race books give all other info except tips newspapers/sites/blogs stop giving free selections what these peti-punters or race clubs will do in the absence of penny punter?
Gamblers will switch over to another form of gambling and breeders will sell their produce to buggy-owners! Open spaces of race clubs will be used by joggers and real sports persons( boys and girls) than pseudo-sportsmen! If our politiciansand builders lobby permit that to happen!
But we are discussing punter –tipster relationship or dependence. Historically punters came first and tipsters came later in this game . An average punter has resources ( money, risk taking ability, backup) but insufficient knowledge of the game while a tipster has knowledge( acquired, borrowed, spurious, fake) and both need each other for sustenance in racing.
While resource can be unlimited ,knowledge has a boundary , a limit due to inadequacy of the provider. In the context of a horse race this inadequacy becomes unforgivable though in any other commercial activity loss and profit are accepted without any complaint. In a business activity a net profit of 15 to 25 % after a year is gladly accepted but in racing activity after 3 hrs a return of 20 to 30% is considered inadequate. This brings us to a remark by an Indian breeder who said ‘pay peanuts you get monkeys’. If this person ( he/she) can say this to another who has paid few lacs to buy a thoroughbred why can’t a tipster(who receives few tenners or few hundreds) be allowed to use the same words. In a study carried by me in 2004 when a cash prize of Rs. 100,000/- was offered by RWITC during Pune season I had proved( available in another article) that the performance of tipsters had improved appreciably – though only one of them could win that prize.
This brings us to Bangalore summer Derby where most of the punters lost and most of the tipsters failed. I’m not going to single out any group – punter/tipster/owner/trainer/jockey for a blameworthy/praiseworthy performance but will try to bring out some facts and data overlooked , ignored by many.
Let us start with some harsh, real, economic facts.
Economy first: an owner buys a horse , hands over to a trainer and expects a decent return on his investment. A trainer tries to win (or return) as much as is possible to retain the goodwill and the future retainer ship by the owner and a jockey(retained or hired) tries to help them. This is an ideal situation .One out of 100 thoroughbred only performs well, rather do perform true to ‘form’ and brings laurels to all connected with him. Not all- they show variable performance pattern. This brings us to dubious, deceptive, false runs of a horse which are noted down by professionals ,including tipsters, and a consensual opinion is generated about a runner’s future prospects- which can be deceptively wrong.
Let us examine all the points made and above observations in the context of recent Bangalore summer Derby.
18 horses, biggest field ever for Bangalore Derby, faces the starter. Aboline from draw no 18 –farthest draw took over lead at 1950m belying the age old theory of unfavorable draw and won start to finish on a slowly rising track – contradicting another theory that a horse can not win a route (>2000m) race start to finish in a competitive field.
But did he really destroy the age old beliefs held by some. Perhaps, no! why do I say that ?
I said it before the race was run , that his dam Super Fan has run 43 times –a record for an US runner ( they run maximum only 7-10 times before retirement) proving durability, strength in the bloodline and her winning distance gave him a mitochondrial advantage to run over longer distances.
How did he beat Jacqueline – trip handicappers will explain in detail why did she lose by short head as I’m not doing post race analysis here !
Why was he missed by almost ‘all’ the tipsters? Gypsy Magic’s past 2 runs, imported jockey, apparently better time clocked by colts, deceptive Colt’s trial run etc. did help run at lucrative odds –though he was third favorite in the bookie’s ring
I’m not a regular or a professional tipster but did short-list him in my selections on 8th. July and 10th. July on IR.com and my blog respectively.
Today , horse racing has become a game for thick-skinned ,strong heart ,calculative, clever and deceptive person or a group who has these qualities in a collective format.
The tipsters( few of them very sincere) and track reporters who watch the morning track, analyse the past performance and look for the clues from jockey change, shoe change, equipment change are likely to be fooled by subtly deceptive methods and should be wary and careful, because the intentions of the connections ,now must be given prime importance, before he can say with a cautious remark that horse A is likely to win . The aura built around Gypsy Magic, Icebreaker, Aboline (colts trial)and many others is to be viewed in this light.
7/13/2009
Indian versus foreign riders
It is not correct to compare an Indian jockey with a foreign jockey, because though we do not get the top class foreign jockeys( they go to better paying countries)a foreign jockey coming to India comes for 'vacation' as racing in Europe is stopped during winter. Of course they have to be average plus to remain here as they cost many times than an average Indian jockey.
they follow the connection's instructions to win or pull a horse. period.
I don’t follow international racing with my limited resources ,but read ,study and think and think again(only facilty- freely available to us - Indians) to comprehend and keep abreast of the goings on in the international circuit . Hence my info about foreign jockys may be outdated , perhaps, but should not be wrong…
It must be a common knowledge to us, Indians, that due to commercial considerations , at present , top rung European jockeys go to Singapore/Hongkong/Australasia during their ‘winter vacation’ and only B grade jockeys land up in India because we can’t pay up as much as east Asian trainer/owners can…let us accept this fact…
But let us accept another fact…these foreign riders achieve more than accepted percentage of wins than local riders in India , due to :
1)availability of better mounts,
2) more faith in their ability by trainer/owner
3)suspicion of local rider’s connection with bookies/undesirable persons
4)many more unmentionable reasons…
and this brings us to present day reality… which is that inspite of their presence and better winning average an Indian rider becomes a champion because he knows that they will go away in the end of February when European racing season starts. An example. In 2007/2008 D Grant and S Fargeat,both average riders, would have given a tough time to our ace rider C Rajendera if they could ride in April2008 but C Rajendra was not unduly bothered as he knew that he can pickup the ‘thread’ after the departure of these socalled ‘superior’ foreign riders. His complacency was evident to all serious observers… but in 2008/2009 Daniel Grant was the champion because he stayed back!
What does it prove ,or boils down to? One of our famous rider , when thrown out by the racing baron was moving around – racing helmet in hand during morning track work and took almost 2 yrs to get rehabilitated ! He of course gives interviews out of turn !!
But that is not the end…let us analyse the racing when topgrade foreign jockeys use to visit India .. Due to constraint of time I will discuss only one race day – Indian Derby day when ‘no holds barred’ racing on true merit normally take place…
Mumbai, 1991-92, Indian Derby Day – 2 Feb 92
1st. race won by E Johnsson(foreigner),beating Dettori(fav-ended 5th.)
2nd.race won by Bhagwat (Indian)
3rd. race won by RHughes(foreigner)
4th.race won by Moses (Indian)
5th.race won by Aslam ( Indian) beating willie Carson –Indian Derby
6th.race won by Shroff (Indian)
7th.race won by Hanut Singh (Indian)
8th.race won by Bajrang Singh(Indian)
Therefore, on an Indian Derby day 6 Indian rider won races against 2 wins of foreign riders .
and who were those foreign riders who rode against these Indian jockeys….
They were…
Lestor Pigott, Willie Carson, R Hughes, JP Murtagh,K Fallon, E Johnson,P Eddery, J Lowe and L Dettori…
Some of them were/are world famous names , at that/this time, who were beaten on Mumbai racetrack by some ‘not so famous’ Indian jockeys …
Therefore, the ability or the expertise or the superiority of Indian versus foreign jockeys , subject of discussion, must be analysed in a wider perspective and should not be narrowed down to the present crop of ‘visiting professionals’ who become more faithful to the king than the king himself ! I am sure that I have made my position very clear , even then I am ready to discuss these or related points in any forum or at any place and I must categorically state that I’ve great respect for few foreign riders – Lestoer Piggot,Willie Carson, Mike Kinane are some of them…Rest of them will do anything for their Indian retainers because they know that ‘following instructions’ will make them richer by few thousand dollars everytime and anytime they visit this great country of ours – called India.
they follow the connection's instructions to win or pull a horse. period.
I don’t follow international racing with my limited resources ,but read ,study and think and think again(only facilty- freely available to us - Indians) to comprehend and keep abreast of the goings on in the international circuit . Hence my info about foreign jockys may be outdated , perhaps, but should not be wrong…
It must be a common knowledge to us, Indians, that due to commercial considerations , at present , top rung European jockeys go to Singapore/Hongkong/Australasia during their ‘winter vacation’ and only B grade jockeys land up in India because we can’t pay up as much as east Asian trainer/owners can…let us accept this fact…
But let us accept another fact…these foreign riders achieve more than accepted percentage of wins than local riders in India , due to :
1)availability of better mounts,
2) more faith in their ability by trainer/owner
3)suspicion of local rider’s connection with bookies/undesirable persons
4)many more unmentionable reasons…
and this brings us to present day reality… which is that inspite of their presence and better winning average an Indian rider becomes a champion because he knows that they will go away in the end of February when European racing season starts. An example. In 2007/2008 D Grant and S Fargeat,both average riders, would have given a tough time to our ace rider C Rajendera if they could ride in April2008 but C Rajendra was not unduly bothered as he knew that he can pickup the ‘thread’ after the departure of these socalled ‘superior’ foreign riders. His complacency was evident to all serious observers… but in 2008/2009 Daniel Grant was the champion because he stayed back!
What does it prove ,or boils down to? One of our famous rider , when thrown out by the racing baron was moving around – racing helmet in hand during morning track work and took almost 2 yrs to get rehabilitated ! He of course gives interviews out of turn !!
But that is not the end…let us analyse the racing when topgrade foreign jockeys use to visit India .. Due to constraint of time I will discuss only one race day – Indian Derby day when ‘no holds barred’ racing on true merit normally take place…
Mumbai, 1991-92, Indian Derby Day – 2 Feb 92
1st. race won by E Johnsson(foreigner),beating Dettori(fav-ended 5th.)
2nd.race won by Bhagwat (Indian)
3rd. race won by RHughes(foreigner)
4th.race won by Moses (Indian)
5th.race won by Aslam ( Indian) beating willie Carson –Indian Derby
6th.race won by Shroff (Indian)
7th.race won by Hanut Singh (Indian)
8th.race won by Bajrang Singh(Indian)
Therefore, on an Indian Derby day 6 Indian rider won races against 2 wins of foreign riders .
and who were those foreign riders who rode against these Indian jockeys….
They were…
Lestor Pigott, Willie Carson, R Hughes, JP Murtagh,K Fallon, E Johnson,P Eddery, J Lowe and L Dettori…
Some of them were/are world famous names , at that/this time, who were beaten on Mumbai racetrack by some ‘not so famous’ Indian jockeys …
Therefore, the ability or the expertise or the superiority of Indian versus foreign jockeys , subject of discussion, must be analysed in a wider perspective and should not be narrowed down to the present crop of ‘visiting professionals’ who become more faithful to the king than the king himself ! I am sure that I have made my position very clear , even then I am ready to discuss these or related points in any forum or at any place and I must categorically state that I’ve great respect for few foreign riders – Lestoer Piggot,Willie Carson, Mike Kinane are some of them…Rest of them will do anything for their Indian retainers because they know that ‘following instructions’ will make them richer by few thousand dollars everytime and anytime they visit this great country of ours – called India.
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