Penetrometer reading and Fillies and Colts classic –a correlation
Penetrometer reading(PNR) gives a clue about the type of ‘going’ on the day and affects the final time of a race used by ‘speed analysts’ and is a pointer to indicate a probable winner when many other parameters are unable to pinpoint a clear winner of a race. The correlation between the time clocked by a runner on a particular day and the PNR value, if correctly done, will provide an exceptionally valuable winner which normal parameters may not be able to provide. This hypothesis is substantially proved by the wins of Lovely Kiss (odds 7/2) and Pronto Pronto(odds 5/1) in Fillies classic and Colts classic recently.
Let us consider the win of Lovely Kiss. On 1st. Day of racing at Bangalore in race no 5 ,she clocked a final time of 1 m 26.1s for 1400m when penetrometer reading(PNR) was 5.1 ;while Black Magic Woman(BMW) in race no 31, clocked 1 m 12.9s when PNR was 3.8. Disregarding the weight carried, the margin of win by each runner , we also find that except Speed Six(race no 30 – 1400m in 1m 26s) no other runner (not even a class I –race no 37) was able to better the final time clocked by Lovely Kiss on the first day of the Bangalore season indicating her superiority over her age group . She won the fillies classic beating the hot favorite BMW and other fillies easily.
In the case of Colts classic , the situation is a bit complicated because Pronto Pronto (PP) has not run on Bangalore track except running a mock race (1400m in 1 m 29s) while his adversary Six Speed (52K) has run an actual race in 1 m 26 s with PNR at 3.8 and Amedeus has run this distance in 1m 29.3s(adjusting for the lost distance). On 5/6/11 , PP clocked 1m 29s for 1400m beating a class I horse (Unleashed -rating 106) while Siachen clocked 13.7 s for a 1200m race and a class II 1600m race was run in 1m 41.7s. A class III race was won in 1m 29.9s by Arrow In Auto Mode on the same day. The PNR was 4.2. Using the times clocked by Siachen( class I ) and class II runner we find that a runner of equal caliber should run 1400m in a final time of about 1m 29.7s . PP has run a mock race on the same day in 1m 29s. Slower pace of a mock race but bettering a class III final time indicated that PP had equal chance as SS if we interpolate these variables in the mock race time of PP.
It is well known that the pace of a mock race is always slower than the actual race because horses are not strained and PP clocking a better time than a class III runner and beating a class I runner was a clear pointer that he is a live contender for the Colts classic and winning at odds of 5/1 he proved it.
After analyzing both the classics I can say that in the next classic , i.e., Bangalore Derby – ‘girls have better chance to win than the boys’.