IN A MONEY GAME IT IS NAIVE TO ASK FREE LUNCHES OR DINNER..
Horseracing is a game of skill…Finding a winner of a race needs evaluation of many factors…More factors you include in your analysis better should be the result…How many punters (gamblers) have time, patience to follow these basicprinciples…Very few, but they are quick to blame everyone – tipster, jockey,trainer and owner…I am an occasional punter and a casual tipster-but was neither a jockeyor a trainer or a ownerI have read many postings on this subject, repeated with regular frequency by free-loaders on various racing sites, about free tips ,tipsters failed tips, wild tips(and their occasional success) and realized that a tipster is always held in ridicule by these so calledsmarty Jones…Why?Most of the tipsters are smalltime race aficionados who graduallygraduate to this position from humble beginnings and therefore,most of these smart gamblers take their opinions as a `necessary evil' andrely more on `khabar 'and blame the tipster if their `forecast or prediction'fails… they don't have guts to blame the `khabri'….But what is a tip ?A tip is a personal assessment/opinion about the winning chance ofa runner in a race.It can be right and of course it may be wrong…But who is a tipster ?A person who with sufficient/insufficient expertise/knowledge provides theassessment/opinion…And who is a punter ?A person with money( hard earned/borrowed/black) and wants to makeit grow - fast…But they are of 2 types…1) few- very few- who know horseracing, handicapping, anduse `khabar' to their advantage…they are privileged…ordinarypunter can not compete with them…2) the majority- called’ public’, constituting the majority of punters are those who buy a race book before entering a racecourse and dream of winning a fortune…they are the backbone of horseracing…this, kind/category of punters are those who depend on tips, followtipsters and blame them when they lose…they pay peanuts and desire toown thoroughbreds instead of monkeys… (said by a thoroughbredbreeder )…but what's the truth ?IN early1970's a tipster, by the name – Galloper , used to chargeRs.20/- for a day's tip….gold was Rs 250/10gm. and real estate flats were sold at Rs.50/ toRs. 70/- per sq.ft. at Andheri(Mumbai)… today gold is sold at Rs.14,000/-per10 gm. and the minimum rate per sq.ft. at Andheri is Rs. 7000/-… atipster( say VM Dalal) still charges Rs.50/- for a day's tipwhile one of his predecessor charged Rs.20/- in 1970- 39 years back…what is that which most of these critics on a free forum want from a tipster or a blogger? By paying peanuts they want to own an empire-perhaps. Not monkeys??Not convinced ? OK …let me give you a real life example…Few years back, to be exact and to the point ,during 2003 Puneracing season ,RWITC in a rare show of wisdom announced a prizefor the best tipster of a PARTICULAR DAY… the announcement wasmade on 10th. raceday in September2003 and the 18th. raceday inOctober was the D day. I have written an article earlier onthis subject few years back and will not repeat it but will present only thesalient points…for details you may refer to my old posting on IR.com(not available now)…The study was carried out in the following way…The tipsters selected were from Mumbai and they were …1)Cole race card tipster 2)Cole track reporter3)Money Spinner 4)LuckySpinner 5)Times of India. I could not include others as I did not have data about them. TO EVALUATE ONLY THEIR FIRST CHOICE WAS CONSIDEREDthe prize money was a whopping Rs. 100,000/-On 10th.day ( the day of announcement of the prize) theirperformance was…COLE--COLE TR…MONEY SPINNER…LUCKY SPINNER...TIMES OF INDIAOn 10th. day the return on betting on their FIRST choicewas as follows-20 ……..-26 …………+ 12…………………-8…………………-16but after declaration of prize, their selections improved and on18th. day the return-16………-23………….+18………………….+6………………..-36except TOI every other tipsters ROI has improved inanticipation of winning the bumper prize..After the prize was won by Gujrat Samachar tipster, theperformance of ALL the above tipsters went down…what does it prove ? pay peanuts – get monkeys…
To quote a punch-line from the ‘bai’ of a TV channel ( [ V ] )
‘itne paise may itnaich milenga’
7/02/2009
6/29/2009
Indian vs foreign sires
all thoroughbreds in the world are the descendents of the 3 Arabian stallions brought to England in the later half of 18th. Century. Their offsprings gradually spread allover the globe and created thousand of sires and hundreds of sirelines in different countries including India. In the early part of 19th, century the sirelines and the stallions from England/Ireland were sought after, prized and had a virtual hegemony over the world thoroughbred indutry which continued till late 40’s of last century – with small hiccups produced by some French,American breeders and a Itallion called Federico Tessio who bred Nearco – the grandsire of Northern Dancer who ultimately changed the power center of the whole thoroughbred industry in the world..
In India during the 70’s alongwith imported stallions like Valoroso ( sire of legendary Squanderer) we had Grey Gaston , Riyahi, Everyday II etc. we had few Indian stallions like Red Rufus, Prince Khartoum and Prince Pradeep who sired many winners ,like Reprint (winner of 1000Guiness and Indian Oaks) and while foreign stallion bred, Squanderer was winning Indian Triple crown our Indian stallion bred were also winning important races like Reprint. Indian stallions did hold their position against the onslaught of imported stallions in mid 20th. Century in India, but gradually lost their hold against the imports and today while in USA in the list of 2000+ stallions, we hardly find more than 5% imports ; in India we have more than 95% imported stallions .
But ,this is not all ,none of the Indian stallion ,now, gets a quality (class I) mare to produce competitor and are literslly reduced to a laughing stock from the breeding stock !
Till mid 40’s exactly similar situation was prevailing in USA though their ‘local breds’ were regularly beating the progeny of ‘imported breds’. US breeders from 50’s switched over to their local stallions and the results are there for all to see . they have virtual monopoly over the world breeding scenario .
And where are we ? With almost 70 years of racing we can count Indian stallions on the fingers of one hand.
While Prince Pradeep got some of the good broodmares of his time and regularly produced classic winners, what did another recent Triple crown winner – Elusive Pimpernel or current sire Indictment was offered in their short career . Go through the records , the answer is all there , in black and white…
In India during the 70’s alongwith imported stallions like Valoroso ( sire of legendary Squanderer) we had Grey Gaston , Riyahi, Everyday II etc. we had few Indian stallions like Red Rufus, Prince Khartoum and Prince Pradeep who sired many winners ,like Reprint (winner of 1000Guiness and Indian Oaks) and while foreign stallion bred, Squanderer was winning Indian Triple crown our Indian stallion bred were also winning important races like Reprint. Indian stallions did hold their position against the onslaught of imported stallions in mid 20th. Century in India, but gradually lost their hold against the imports and today while in USA in the list of 2000+ stallions, we hardly find more than 5% imports ; in India we have more than 95% imported stallions .
But ,this is not all ,none of the Indian stallion ,now, gets a quality (class I) mare to produce competitor and are literslly reduced to a laughing stock from the breeding stock !
Till mid 40’s exactly similar situation was prevailing in USA though their ‘local breds’ were regularly beating the progeny of ‘imported breds’. US breeders from 50’s switched over to their local stallions and the results are there for all to see . they have virtual monopoly over the world breeding scenario .
And where are we ? With almost 70 years of racing we can count Indian stallions on the fingers of one hand.
While Prince Pradeep got some of the good broodmares of his time and regularly produced classic winners, what did another recent Triple crown winner – Elusive Pimpernel or current sire Indictment was offered in their short career . Go through the records , the answer is all there , in black and white…
fundamentals of horseracing-1
Few stray thoughts about horseracing…
let me start with some postulates which are true but have no scientific backup...
1) horseracing is a game of skill...
2) horseracing gambling is as risky as any other form of gambling...3) there will be more losers than winners in any game of gambling...
4) there will always be more losers in horseracing than winners ...
5) horserace gambling needs much more study, analysis, than other games like Poker ,card games, betting on cricket etc.
6) punters will lose because they do not know handicapping well...
7) it is human nature to blame others for your failures rather than accept it...
there are many more but I cannot carry on like this ,ad infinitum...
Most of the punters (nay losers) blame, while losing bet on a favorite, fixing of races by owner/trainer/jockey/bookie/mafia as the main reason for their loss. Punters and sometimes, even tipsters offer the opinion that jockey is the main culprit and a punter is helpless to face these 'deadly' combos....
well, I don't agree .I have said many times that since many years I treat horseracing as a business entity and gambling being an integral part of it , losses and profits will accrue to the participants (owners/trainers/punters and others associated with the game)...
An owner buys a horse by investing few lacs and spends roughly 1 to 2 lacs fot BTF etc. before he could start recovering his money ,maybe with profit (if lucky) and certainly has NO obligation to punters for the performance of his horse - neither his trainer or jockey has...
It is the raceclub and the clubs officials, stewards who are morally and LEGALLY responsible for the fair conduct of the race under their jurisdiction...we cannot and should not blame the owners,trainers and jockeys - blindly...in some cases they are blameworthy but not in all favs' losses...in late 80's and till mid 90's many of my owner friends gradually sold out their strings and changed over to pure punters as they could not afford to maintain their horses and make money...In retrospect I can confidently say that without proper application and understanding they went in the game and lost...
I don't believe that most races are fixed , yes few are manipulated - maybe 20 to 30 % but 70 % + races in India are still run and won on merit and you can make money out of these ‘open’ races, if you can spot them... but will you bet on Coceptual (8/1) against Arcidian(6/4) , or Jacqueline (7/2) against Gypsy Magic(6/4))... Very few will do that and therefore only few will win the races.
horseracing is a game where handicapping is of PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE and not knowing it will lead a punter to a poor house in due course of time.Having bagful of money is no guarantee to be a winner in this game, with few hundreds in the pocket also you can be a winner.
chanakya
let me start with some postulates which are true but have no scientific backup...
1) horseracing is a game of skill...
2) horseracing gambling is as risky as any other form of gambling...3) there will be more losers than winners in any game of gambling...
4) there will always be more losers in horseracing than winners ...
5) horserace gambling needs much more study, analysis, than other games like Poker ,card games, betting on cricket etc.
6) punters will lose because they do not know handicapping well...
7) it is human nature to blame others for your failures rather than accept it...
there are many more but I cannot carry on like this ,ad infinitum...
Most of the punters (nay losers) blame, while losing bet on a favorite, fixing of races by owner/trainer/jockey/bookie/mafia as the main reason for their loss. Punters and sometimes, even tipsters offer the opinion that jockey is the main culprit and a punter is helpless to face these 'deadly' combos....
well, I don't agree .I have said many times that since many years I treat horseracing as a business entity and gambling being an integral part of it , losses and profits will accrue to the participants (owners/trainers/punters and others associated with the game)...
An owner buys a horse by investing few lacs and spends roughly 1 to 2 lacs fot BTF etc. before he could start recovering his money ,maybe with profit (if lucky) and certainly has NO obligation to punters for the performance of his horse - neither his trainer or jockey has...
It is the raceclub and the clubs officials, stewards who are morally and LEGALLY responsible for the fair conduct of the race under their jurisdiction...we cannot and should not blame the owners,trainers and jockeys - blindly...in some cases they are blameworthy but not in all favs' losses...in late 80's and till mid 90's many of my owner friends gradually sold out their strings and changed over to pure punters as they could not afford to maintain their horses and make money...In retrospect I can confidently say that without proper application and understanding they went in the game and lost...
I don't believe that most races are fixed , yes few are manipulated - maybe 20 to 30 % but 70 % + races in India are still run and won on merit and you can make money out of these ‘open’ races, if you can spot them... but will you bet on Coceptual (8/1) against Arcidian(6/4) , or Jacqueline (7/2) against Gypsy Magic(6/4))... Very few will do that and therefore only few will win the races.
horseracing is a game where handicapping is of PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE and not knowing it will lead a punter to a poor house in due course of time.Having bagful of money is no guarantee to be a winner in this game, with few hundreds in the pocket also you can be a winner.
chanakya
6/26/2009
False rails and their importance
False rails are extensively used in Indian racecourses and except the classic or important race days most of the race days have different width of false rails , sometimes to fox the railbirds . following article is an attempt to clarify few notions of the race goers.
A thoroughbred is trained to run almost along a straight line and to facilitate this permanent wooden (now plastic) rails are laid along the main track and the racing distances (1000m, 1600m, 2400m, etc.) are measured with respect to these rails . Every runner tries to ‘hug’ these rails to travel the shortest way and the heavy pounding of their hooves affect the turf surface which takes time to ’re-grow’ or come back to normal shape unlike a AWT surface or the ‘dirt’ surface of U.S. tracks . To enable this turf track to recover , false rails are placed few meters away from the permanent rails which varies from few meters to as wide as 13 meters for Mumbai .If the races are run on a straight course then false rails would not have much effect on the final time of a race but due to constraint of space all the tracks in India and other countries are mostly oval shaped or elliptical and will have 1 , 2 , 3 or 4 bends for the distance of 1000m to 2400m (Mumbai has only one bend from 1600m to winning post (WP) while Bangalore and Hyderabad have almost 3 bends along a 1600m stretch ) . While Chennai and Hyderabad tracks are basically triangular in shape most of other are oval and the length of the bend also varies from track to track . For example the Mumbai bend starts roughly from 800m to 600m the Bangalore’s semicircular bend starts from 950m to 450m ( that is why a 1000m race cannot be run here) . Therefore, these peculiarities will affect the final time of races run on different tracks .
Let us come down to false rails . As said earlier , false rails do not affect a straight course but it INCREASES THE DISTANCE COVERED ALONG A BEND OR A CURVE. A false rail of 1m will increase the distance by 3m (1 length) for Bangalore but will increase it by 1.6m for Mumbai and thus 5m false rails will increase the travel distance by 15m( 5 ½ lengths) for Bangalore and 8 m for Mumbai (these are rough approximations given as an example and can be refined further for mathematical calculations- which is beyond the scope of this article) and thus the final timings with false rails will be slower . this was the case in the last century and in 70’s 80’s and 90’s the timings with false rails were slower because no compensation for increase distance due to use of false rails was given . But since lasr t few years , Mumbai/Pune , Bangalore/Mysore and Hyderabad have started using Rodometer to compensate this increase in distance due to false rails . The distance is NOW measured one to two meter away from the false rails and the starting gates are placed accordingly . This theoretically enables a runner to travel the actual distance as published for the race in the programme . Therefore, the effect of false rails on Indian tracks is now negligible or almost redundant …
In USA they give the exact distance of the race run ,e.g., 1002m(for 1000m), 1201m ,1603m etc. as measured by Rodometer…
A thoroughbred is trained to run almost along a straight line and to facilitate this permanent wooden (now plastic) rails are laid along the main track and the racing distances (1000m, 1600m, 2400m, etc.) are measured with respect to these rails . Every runner tries to ‘hug’ these rails to travel the shortest way and the heavy pounding of their hooves affect the turf surface which takes time to ’re-grow’ or come back to normal shape unlike a AWT surface or the ‘dirt’ surface of U.S. tracks . To enable this turf track to recover , false rails are placed few meters away from the permanent rails which varies from few meters to as wide as 13 meters for Mumbai .If the races are run on a straight course then false rails would not have much effect on the final time of a race but due to constraint of space all the tracks in India and other countries are mostly oval shaped or elliptical and will have 1 , 2 , 3 or 4 bends for the distance of 1000m to 2400m (Mumbai has only one bend from 1600m to winning post (WP) while Bangalore and Hyderabad have almost 3 bends along a 1600m stretch ) . While Chennai and Hyderabad tracks are basically triangular in shape most of other are oval and the length of the bend also varies from track to track . For example the Mumbai bend starts roughly from 800m to 600m the Bangalore’s semicircular bend starts from 950m to 450m ( that is why a 1000m race cannot be run here) . Therefore, these peculiarities will affect the final time of races run on different tracks .
Let us come down to false rails . As said earlier , false rails do not affect a straight course but it INCREASES THE DISTANCE COVERED ALONG A BEND OR A CURVE. A false rail of 1m will increase the distance by 3m (1 length) for Bangalore but will increase it by 1.6m for Mumbai and thus 5m false rails will increase the travel distance by 15m( 5 ½ lengths) for Bangalore and 8 m for Mumbai (these are rough approximations given as an example and can be refined further for mathematical calculations- which is beyond the scope of this article) and thus the final timings with false rails will be slower . this was the case in the last century and in 70’s 80’s and 90’s the timings with false rails were slower because no compensation for increase distance due to use of false rails was given . But since lasr t few years , Mumbai/Pune , Bangalore/Mysore and Hyderabad have started using Rodometer to compensate this increase in distance due to false rails . The distance is NOW measured one to two meter away from the false rails and the starting gates are placed accordingly . This theoretically enables a runner to travel the actual distance as published for the race in the programme . Therefore, the effect of false rails on Indian tracks is now negligible or almost redundant …
In USA they give the exact distance of the race run ,e.g., 1002m(for 1000m), 1201m ,1603m etc. as measured by Rodometer…
Penetrometer and its importance
(though it is a reproduction of my old article but being 'original' I would like to start with it.)
PENETEROMETER READINGS AND THEIR MEANING
Horseracing is a complicated but a challenging game with many unknowns and imponderables . Peneterometer reading is one of the parameter which tries to indicate the kind of ‘going’ on a particular day to help punters arrive at a correct decision .
The racetrack is made up of several ‘layers’ of ‘surfaces’ laid one over each other having different composition and therefore, have different porosity and rate of absorption of moisture or water . for example , a racetrack may have 3 to 4 layers of surface - the bottom layer may be made up of 6 to 12 inches of clay and natural soil which is covered with a layer of 4 to 6 inches of sand and/or silt and this layer is then garnished by 3 to 4 inches of sandy loam cushion which is then topped up by 2to 3 inches of a mixture of mud, sand ,manure, tan etc. to sustain the growth of grass (turf) for the whole racing season . Therefore , the turf which forms the upper surface of the racing track is like a skin which gets ‘torn’ by the pounding hooves of hundreds of 500 Kg. thoroughbreds running with a speed of about 60 km/hr every race day . This ‘skin’ or turf is kept alive artificially by regular watering and garnishing to retain its resilience and the quality throughout the length and the breadth of the racing surface . The moisture (amount of water ) on the ground , humidity , ambient temperature etc., will determine the quality of surface on a particular race day which may help or hinder the mobility of a runner by providing an ideal or a detrimental( uncooperative ) racing surface.
To help the punters and quantify these unknowns the race clubs have devised a measurable system which indicates the quality of the racing surface ‘at that time’- ‘on that day’and this ‘quality’ is expressed by a numerical value measured in centimeters – called peneterometer reading which provides the ‘give in ‘ of the racing surface on that day .
And what is this peneterometer(PNR) reading ?
As per the International standards a weight of one Kg. from a height of one meter is dropped on a spike touching the racing surface and the ‘depth of penetration’ of this spike in the racing surface , measured in centimeters, gives the peneterometer reading .. This very simple idea apparently seems and looks very easy and uncomplicated . But the ramifications are not as simple , because a minor change in its value can change the results of a race and help an alert punter and convert him a winner from a loser.
How
Let us start from the beginning .
PNR value , measured in cms., - one or two hours before the first race, indicates the quality – nature or kind of racing surface on that day ‘at that time’, meaning that it can change within a short period (few hours - due to sunshine, or few minutes– due to rains).
In India only few race clubs ,viz., Mumbai/Pune and Bangalore/Mysore use and publish the values of this parameter . In foreign countries race clubs take an average of as many as 30 readings of the entire course , while Mumbai/ Pune take the average of 4 to 6 readings along the length of the course , Bangalore and Mysore ,most probably, depend on the value taken at the winning post and therefore, the PNR values provided by Mumbai/Pune will be more authentic as it covers the entire course . Hyderabad and other centers do not publish these values .
The racing surface (track) ‘going’ based on PNR readings may be divided in various categories ,enumerated below :
1) hard to firm (fast ) - dry with minimum moisture and smooth & even surface
2) good (semi fast) – dry with some moisture – an almost ideal surface
3) soft – wet , water has gone to second or lower layers
4) sloppy – during or immediately after heavy rain ,water yet to soak in
5) muddy – soft and wet with pools of water
6) heavy –a drying track – between muddy and good
7) slow – worse than heavy
8) off – an ‘off’ is any track condition other than good or fast
These are not sacrosanct or watertight categories and overlap each other and can be fairly divided in three categories – good, not so good and bad !!
It is now obvious that harder the surface , lesser will be the PNR value and therefore this value can be a pointer to the chances of some runners ,e.g., progenies of Burden of Proof and Pennine Ridge perform better on a sloppy and muddy track .
While PNR value in western India varies from 1.2 cms. to 2.7 cms. and mostly hovers around 1.5 to 2.0 , in Bangalore and Mysore it is divided as follows :
1) up to 2.5 cms. – firm going
2) 2.6 to 5.5 cms. –good going
3) 5.6 to 6.5cms –soft going
4)more than 6.5 cms. – heavy going
In my opinion the wide span of 3 cms ( 2.6 to 5.5 cms.) for good going is a bit more as an increase of even 0.2 or 0.3cm slows down the final time of a consistent runner appreciably .
PNR value helps in calculating the speed and pace ratings as well as the track variant and though these topics are beyond the scope of this small article , let me conclude with some relevant examples where PNR values will be a help to a punter .
I have selected 3 yr. old races at 1200m because they carry same weight and are not normally hooked…
Bangalore summer 2007
Race no……….PNR value……….final time
29……………..4.8………………..1m 16.4s
53……………...3.5………………..1m 15.3
167……………4.2…………………1m 17.2s
these values show that PNR values are intricately related to the final timings of a race and must be considered during handicapping a past performance but they are no pointers to the future .for pointers we must look closely .
we will just take 2 examples
Bourbon King , a 3 y old at Bangalore track with PNR 3.5(Bng 2006/07- race 126) clocked 1m12..3s while Haunting Memories- (class I ) in race 159 (PNR 2.8) clocked 1m 12. 57 for the same distance of 1200m indicating the superiority of Bourbon King . some days later , on 25th. Feb same Bourbon King has won Poonawalla Million at odds of 9/2 beating very hyped Our Excellence…a 3 yo at a ‘softer’ track condition , clocking better and faster time than a class I horse (at a relatively faster track- PNR= 2.8) must be given due consideration….
Mumbai races 2006/07- 5 yo mare Atmosphere – won race nos. 5 ,53, 130 & short head II in 187
Race no 5 carried 56.5 kg. clocked 1m 11.9s at PNR 2.2
Race no 53 carried 54 kg. and clocked 1m 12.6s AT PNR VALUE 2.5
Race no 130 carried 53.5 kg. clocked 1m12.2 s at PNR 2.1
Race no 187 carried 57.5kg. clocked 1m 11.7s at PNR2.0
Thus with an increase of 0.6 cm in PNR value a consistent runner clocks a slower time confirming the close relationship of PNR value and the final time
In short following observations prove a close correlation between the PNR values and the final timings of a race
Pune and Mumbai tracks values normally hover around 1.5 to 2.0 and any value less or more invariably reflects in the final result . Last year , on 15 Oct 06, on Pune track 2 records were set up by Evatina for 1200m and by Secret Memory for 2000m on the same day and the PNR value was 1.2 indicating a very fast track condition . on 29 Oct Sovereign Power had established another record for 1400m and the value of PNR was 1.4
PENETEROMETER READINGS AND THEIR MEANING
Horseracing is a complicated but a challenging game with many unknowns and imponderables . Peneterometer reading is one of the parameter which tries to indicate the kind of ‘going’ on a particular day to help punters arrive at a correct decision .
The racetrack is made up of several ‘layers’ of ‘surfaces’ laid one over each other having different composition and therefore, have different porosity and rate of absorption of moisture or water . for example , a racetrack may have 3 to 4 layers of surface - the bottom layer may be made up of 6 to 12 inches of clay and natural soil which is covered with a layer of 4 to 6 inches of sand and/or silt and this layer is then garnished by 3 to 4 inches of sandy loam cushion which is then topped up by 2to 3 inches of a mixture of mud, sand ,manure, tan etc. to sustain the growth of grass (turf) for the whole racing season . Therefore , the turf which forms the upper surface of the racing track is like a skin which gets ‘torn’ by the pounding hooves of hundreds of 500 Kg. thoroughbreds running with a speed of about 60 km/hr every race day . This ‘skin’ or turf is kept alive artificially by regular watering and garnishing to retain its resilience and the quality throughout the length and the breadth of the racing surface . The moisture (amount of water ) on the ground , humidity , ambient temperature etc., will determine the quality of surface on a particular race day which may help or hinder the mobility of a runner by providing an ideal or a detrimental( uncooperative ) racing surface.
To help the punters and quantify these unknowns the race clubs have devised a measurable system which indicates the quality of the racing surface ‘at that time’- ‘on that day’and this ‘quality’ is expressed by a numerical value measured in centimeters – called peneterometer reading which provides the ‘give in ‘ of the racing surface on that day .
And what is this peneterometer(PNR) reading ?
As per the International standards a weight of one Kg. from a height of one meter is dropped on a spike touching the racing surface and the ‘depth of penetration’ of this spike in the racing surface , measured in centimeters, gives the peneterometer reading .. This very simple idea apparently seems and looks very easy and uncomplicated . But the ramifications are not as simple , because a minor change in its value can change the results of a race and help an alert punter and convert him a winner from a loser.
How
Let us start from the beginning .
PNR value , measured in cms., - one or two hours before the first race, indicates the quality – nature or kind of racing surface on that day ‘at that time’, meaning that it can change within a short period (few hours - due to sunshine, or few minutes– due to rains).
In India only few race clubs ,viz., Mumbai/Pune and Bangalore/Mysore use and publish the values of this parameter . In foreign countries race clubs take an average of as many as 30 readings of the entire course , while Mumbai/ Pune take the average of 4 to 6 readings along the length of the course , Bangalore and Mysore ,most probably, depend on the value taken at the winning post and therefore, the PNR values provided by Mumbai/Pune will be more authentic as it covers the entire course . Hyderabad and other centers do not publish these values .
The racing surface (track) ‘going’ based on PNR readings may be divided in various categories ,enumerated below :
1) hard to firm (fast ) - dry with minimum moisture and smooth & even surface
2) good (semi fast) – dry with some moisture – an almost ideal surface
3) soft – wet , water has gone to second or lower layers
4) sloppy – during or immediately after heavy rain ,water yet to soak in
5) muddy – soft and wet with pools of water
6) heavy –a drying track – between muddy and good
7) slow – worse than heavy
8) off – an ‘off’ is any track condition other than good or fast
These are not sacrosanct or watertight categories and overlap each other and can be fairly divided in three categories – good, not so good and bad !!
It is now obvious that harder the surface , lesser will be the PNR value and therefore this value can be a pointer to the chances of some runners ,e.g., progenies of Burden of Proof and Pennine Ridge perform better on a sloppy and muddy track .
While PNR value in western India varies from 1.2 cms. to 2.7 cms. and mostly hovers around 1.5 to 2.0 , in Bangalore and Mysore it is divided as follows :
1) up to 2.5 cms. – firm going
2) 2.6 to 5.5 cms. –good going
3) 5.6 to 6.5cms –soft going
4)more than 6.5 cms. – heavy going
In my opinion the wide span of 3 cms ( 2.6 to 5.5 cms.) for good going is a bit more as an increase of even 0.2 or 0.3cm slows down the final time of a consistent runner appreciably .
PNR value helps in calculating the speed and pace ratings as well as the track variant and though these topics are beyond the scope of this small article , let me conclude with some relevant examples where PNR values will be a help to a punter .
I have selected 3 yr. old races at 1200m because they carry same weight and are not normally hooked…
Bangalore summer 2007
Race no……….PNR value……….final time
29……………..4.8………………..1m 16.4s
53……………...3.5………………..1m 15.3
167……………4.2…………………1m 17.2s
these values show that PNR values are intricately related to the final timings of a race and must be considered during handicapping a past performance but they are no pointers to the future .for pointers we must look closely .
we will just take 2 examples
Bourbon King , a 3 y old at Bangalore track with PNR 3.5(Bng 2006/07- race 126) clocked 1m12..3s while Haunting Memories- (class I ) in race 159 (PNR 2.8) clocked 1m 12. 57 for the same distance of 1200m indicating the superiority of Bourbon King . some days later , on 25th. Feb same Bourbon King has won Poonawalla Million at odds of 9/2 beating very hyped Our Excellence…a 3 yo at a ‘softer’ track condition , clocking better and faster time than a class I horse (at a relatively faster track- PNR= 2.8) must be given due consideration….
Mumbai races 2006/07- 5 yo mare Atmosphere – won race nos. 5 ,53, 130 & short head II in 187
Race no 5 carried 56.5 kg. clocked 1m 11.9s at PNR 2.2
Race no 53 carried 54 kg. and clocked 1m 12.6s AT PNR VALUE 2.5
Race no 130 carried 53.5 kg. clocked 1m12.2 s at PNR 2.1
Race no 187 carried 57.5kg. clocked 1m 11.7s at PNR2.0
Thus with an increase of 0.6 cm in PNR value a consistent runner clocks a slower time confirming the close relationship of PNR value and the final time
In short following observations prove a close correlation between the PNR values and the final timings of a race
Pune and Mumbai tracks values normally hover around 1.5 to 2.0 and any value less or more invariably reflects in the final result . Last year , on 15 Oct 06, on Pune track 2 records were set up by Evatina for 1200m and by Secret Memory for 2000m on the same day and the PNR value was 1.2 indicating a very fast track condition . on 29 Oct Sovereign Power had established another record for 1400m and the value of PNR was 1.4
6/16/2009
Aim of my blog - a general perspective
This blog will deal with following topics, with emphasis on Indian thoroughbreds:
1) handicapping –methods, systems, betting angles
2)articles on pedigree
a)sire lines
b) female lines & families
3)breeding
a)inbreeding
b)line breeding
c) current topics
4) articles on genetics
5)articles on conformation
6)current racing scenario
7)concise thoroughbreds history- Indians/foreign-with photograhs
8) all time great Indian/ foreign thoroughbreds
9) Indian/foreign sire/dam’s profile
10) interview/profile of Indian owner/trainer/jockey/vet & other professionals
11) info about international racing
12) use of drugs, frauds etc. in horse racing
13)racing history
14) juvenile TB’s profile – pre race & post race
15) 2yo/3yo pedigree analysis
16) critical analysis of Indian racing
17)preview and post-race review of important races
18) tips, selections, track work , acceptance etc. of current races ,if possible
19)trends- Indian/international
20) many more topics may be added later
obviously all this can be provided by me for only a short period and a team has to work continuously to sustain even the outlines of these topics . Some have promised help and I hope some may volunteer help .Sponsorship and patronage will be welcome - but not at the cost of impartiality and independence.
Blog has been set up but a site to cover all this may take time…
But whatever is presented will be real,true and comparable to international sites in content and value – I promise…
1) handicapping –methods, systems, betting angles
2)articles on pedigree
a)sire lines
b) female lines & families
3)breeding
a)inbreeding
b)line breeding
c) current topics
4) articles on genetics
5)articles on conformation
6)current racing scenario
7)concise thoroughbreds history- Indians/foreign-with photograhs
8) all time great Indian/ foreign thoroughbreds
9) Indian/foreign sire/dam’s profile
10) interview/profile of Indian owner/trainer/jockey/vet & other professionals
11) info about international racing
12) use of drugs, frauds etc. in horse racing
13)racing history
14) juvenile TB’s profile – pre race & post race
15) 2yo/3yo pedigree analysis
16) critical analysis of Indian racing
17)preview and post-race review of important races
18) tips, selections, track work , acceptance etc. of current races ,if possible
19)trends- Indian/international
20) many more topics may be added later
obviously all this can be provided by me for only a short period and a team has to work continuously to sustain even the outlines of these topics . Some have promised help and I hope some may volunteer help .Sponsorship and patronage will be welcome - but not at the cost of impartiality and independence.
Blog has been set up but a site to cover all this may take time…
But whatever is presented will be real,true and comparable to international sites in content and value – I promise…
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